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461  Economy / Speculation / Re: Flash Crash Buy Orders. on: February 18, 2014, 01:06:15 PM
I have created this page to discuss buy order placement strategies for those holding fiat looking to buy BTC at favoured prices in this bear market.

My idea is to place equally sized buy orders (1xBTC) at $20 intervals starting at 407 and lower to 227. I know these numbers are a bit greedy, but the point that I can sleep well at night with these orders on, because Im not making any large bets in any given trade. It means I can benefit from flash crashes.

What are your strategies?


I also use a range but with a triangular shaped distribution (weighted in fiat) as opposed to your rectangular one weighted in BTC.
How that works: I guess a value that has the highest likeliness of being hit within the range. Then I distribute my bids at fixed price levels: the height of the bid is proportional to the relative height of a triangle whose base is the chosen range, and whose max height coincides with my highest bid at my best guess value. The two legs of the triangle need not be symmetric so I can have some bids even in the low 200s.

Sorry if it sounds confused - English is not my first language.

OTOH I do have a feeling that this one bubble won't play like 2013 just because everyone else here expects it to do so, thus effectively slowing down the collapse. This makes me nervous because at worst we could see the 100's in a killing slow decline (2011-style) and I'm not psychologically prepared for such a slow struggle.
462  Economy / Speculation / Re: Tutorial: How to use speculation forum in order to become a succesful trader on: February 18, 2014, 08:46:28 AM
Determine what is the dominant opinion and do completely opposite Cheesy

That works until it doesn't.
463  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Mr. Gox playing like the cat with the mouse ? on: February 18, 2014, 08:07:07 AM
I leave this one here, the more points of view you read the more educated your choice will be.

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/
464  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 02:46:40 PM

This week has demonstrated how one man, who owns a badly run Exchange but has a good PR team, can do massive damage to BTC.


Bill Gates?

 Cheesy
465  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2014, 02:04:08 PM
Yes. I have been posting to forums for some 35 years, and I still keep making the same mistake, over and over again: thinking that readers will recognize blatant sarcasm even without the " Wink"

Wait a minute. I was a BBS user back in the time of 300bps modems. Emoticons were invented in the mid 80's, so your statement is technically false.

 Tongue
466  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 17, 2014, 01:57:50 PM
I think you are right. I also think that we will see 500 in the last exchange where we haven't yet seen it. End of March suits me very well.

Can't help but noticing you haven't mentioned 400 this time?

Guess what? After loading myself absolutely full with bitcoins between 3 and 100, I also felt the urge to sell when it dropped through all supports last summer. Selling at 90 is not the best decision I made, but it gives me the confidence that there will always be investors going through the same stage Wink

Been there. Sold at 90 and bought back at 115, sold at 106 and bought back at 129 then I got pissed at the whole thing. I also had escaped from btc-24 collapse just on time (but at a premium) and I had invested on Ripple just at their top. I wasn't sleeping for days. I ended up being unhealthy and had a nerve breakdown.

I'm still experiencing strong emotions because of the high stakes but I have grown more accustomed to them.
467  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: February 17, 2014, 09:53:18 AM
I feel 500 falling  Shocked

I think if the capitulation happens at all then it will take a couple more weeks to unravel.
Volumes are going down and yet price swings happen on low volume. So liquidity is being removed from the markets.
I suppose that both bulls and bears are exhausted and are taking their fiat and coins away from the exchange.
Hence we are entering the boredom phase of the bubble. We need new meat into the market.

I think that the only thing that would cause another pulse (both ways) by now would be Gox news.
468  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 10:41:30 PM
2011 all over again.

buy, guys. buy. I'm telling you.

Would you think that it will play more like 2011 than 2013 this time?
469  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 08:48:18 PM
Anyone care to explain to me why in the name of Lord are the "liquid" exchanges (such as presumably Stamp / BTCe) follow the Gox price trends ? Why do we need to panic buy whenever there's some random dude that buys 100 BTCs at $200 each on Gox ?! Why do we panic sell when they panic sell ?!

It's another Universe in there, that has its own rules, people !

The market was just looking for an excuse to sell. Gox gave it to them. These things go in cycles.
470  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 08:05:28 PM
Im officially long now (ultra short term  Cool )  Cheesy

Chooo chooo - to the mooon

Think i need to go to specsavers


This is going to be fun to watch.
471  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Will BTC break 266 on MtGox ? on: February 16, 2014, 05:34:24 PM
I buy your Goxcoins for Dogecoins. 1:1. Limited offer. PM me if interested.  Grin
472  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 01:18:06 PM
with no way in or out gox should have have halted trading.  they could have opened on mon with a lot less damage than this. this is one point that indicates they are underwater and arbing to make it back.  

Halting trading is not in their interest. This last move is part of the long con.
473  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 01:16:13 PM
Maybe the market finally reaches bottom at $400 after gox has reached $0. I was confused, back when I thought gox had bottomed at $300, how the market would have another leg down if gox was on its way up. But now I realize gox is headed towards $0 so it makes more sense now.

I believe that there will be a few bounces on Gox on the way down. Too much cash was left on the table. Too many gamblers will be thinking it hit the bottom this time and will try to buy back in lower.
474  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 01:10:31 PM
I don't understand can someone please explain why people are selling at these prices at Gox? You can't get fiat out there anyway so why not keep your btc and hope for Gox allowing btc withdrawals soon? I don't get it.

Mass hysteria caused by fear of losing it all. Early miners and historical Gox clients are the ones being shafted. This is the mother of all tree shakeouts. And I think we are only seeing the beginning of it.


475  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 12:58:50 PM
For very obvious reasons, gox price is *justifiedly* decoupled from stamp price.

If however the situation on gox continues, I don't think stamp will entirely stay unaffected. Not for practical reasons so much as for psychological reasons: gox price is still quoted in the world, and at some point, the nervousness will translate into selling pressure on stamp as well. Not enough to go sub 500 maybe, but enough to bring the two exchanges a bit more in line.

So, short term: if Gox enables BTC withdrawals, Stamp will go down because arbitrage. If Gox doesn't enable withdrawals, Stamp will go down because Gox dying will bring everyone down.

It looks to me like we are out of short-term scenarios where Stamp price goes up?
476  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 12:36:20 PM
We got some bulls!

All we need is some balls
477  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Will BTC break 266 on MtGox ? on: February 16, 2014, 12:24:52 PM
It was already broken, wisdom charts showing one candle as low as 265.01 some 2 hours ago.

No. 265.01 is within 15 minutes ago. Previous minimum was 267.
Tongue

Now everyone crank up the volume of your sound system and join me into loading this tune: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoBFhdeR9PE
478  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Will BTC break 266 on MtGox ? on: February 16, 2014, 12:15:55 PM
IT JUST HAPPENED!

 Shocked

OMG! OMG! APOCALYPSE NOW!
479  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 12:12:13 PM
Your correspondent tried it out for you Wink and got

Quote
Transfer queue is currently not accepting more requests, please retry later

Discuss

If it turns out that they just changed the message then this is the longest con ever...
480  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 12:00:46 PM
Well, there seems to be rumours that Gox have started withdrawals without an announcement but have been flooded with requests.

See Tzupys post here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=468837.new#new

Your correspondent tried it out for you Wink and got

Quote
Transfer queue is currently not accepting more requests, please retry later

Discuss

Great. So Stamp will be going down in the next days albeit slowly, because arbitrage.
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