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981  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 08:41:35 PM
Gox must be loving this. So much money in fees made today...
982  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 08:39:22 PM
Just to prove us all wrong, someone put a market order for 95. This could start an early rally...  Shocked
983  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 08:33:29 PM
Fuck that. 9,000 on 90 now.

I say we are going to the mooon guys.

Wash, rinse, repeat.
984  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 08:06:15 PM
The fact that Mt.Gox keeps lagging up to 50 seconds just by a single person doing fake mini trades is sort of hilarious in a very very sad way. Big investors must question themselves why they trust that website with anything...I can actually understand the dropping prices with all the shitty news these past 4 days. Sad

which is why seeing coinlab sue such a trainwreck of an exchange is so laughable.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1dmb4e/iaal_why_the_coinlab_v_mt_gox_lawsuit_is_hohum/
985  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 07:54:59 PM
everyone sold off b4 the weekend, now they wait for lower prices

this.

Yet there is still little play downwards with very low volume going on.
I bet someone bought back in at 92-93 and now is shitting himself again. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Also everyone's fiat is still in the exchanges.
Expect rally on Sunday morning and subsequent dumps in few hours.
It will be a slaughtering game. The lucky ones will get more fiat for next round. Others will bleed. Wash, rinse, repeat.
986  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall of Fame: Quotes of Bold Predictions on: May 03, 2013, 07:36:02 PM
the price ran up $10 yesterday. today its down $10 and back where it started

this is a non-event. stop wasting everyones time just cause you bought higher yesterday and now are scared
987  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop it with the "bank closed - no new money coming in" on: May 03, 2013, 07:31:23 PM
It means nothing!

MtGox could have 1 milliard dollars per day incoming and that wouldn't change the price.
If people move some money to MtGox and see the price is tanking, they won't buy.

At the same time, traders could drive the price up without any new money coming in.

bar the Gox fees.
Statistically if we all kept doing market orders in a totally random fashion, the price would be stable IF there were no fees.
With fees and same probability distribution --> the price drop is directly proportional to the volume traded.
988  Economy / Speculation / Re: the real reason btc is dropping on: May 03, 2013, 07:26:11 PM
I actually believe I know what that reason is , and I'd like to talk about it at a later date.

yokosan, is that you?

Feels good man!
989  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 05:33:40 PM
Spambots or manipulator bots?




990  Economy / Speculation / The average cost of a mined coin is in the 20-30 USD range on: May 03, 2013, 05:17:46 PM
DISCLAIMER: most of my coins are going to stay in cold storage until November 2013. The rest is my play money and I converted it into fiat, but it is still sitting on the exchanges. I hope I am emotionally detached enough to make sense here.

Hi guys,

I asked this question in the wall observer thread before, yet I don't recall getting an answer (or maybe I skipped through the thread and did not see it). I'd like to know what's your take on the reasoning below.

My assumptions:
1. Fiat value of bitcoin = mining cost + speculation value added.
2. Half of all mining power is ASIC as of today
3. Cost of power worldwide is approximated with average cost in US (0.15 USD/kW)
4. Average hardware breakeven of 3 months (90 days) is reasonable to many.

Using the mining profitability calculator at http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/
- Leave default values (BFL Single SC) (hmm I know Avalons are less efficient, not sure about Asicminer)
- Find the cost in USD per bitcoin that gives hardware breakeven of 90 days -->12 USD/BTC (this could be even a higher-than-reality estimate as it assumes everyone is paid list price while I think people owning mining farms got discounts).
- Double that value to factor-in all non-ASIC miners: 24 USD/BTC

So even if I were to be wrong by a factor 2 (say 48 USD/BTC), we are in a bear market now and the speculation value is currently approaching zero or negative.
And that's why I sold my play money coins. They are way overvalued - we all know that since January - just the bull inside me had gone delusional and I was expecting the bubble to pop at 440$ so I missed. Of course I have the intention to buy back at the right price - AND GET MORE COINS  Grin

NB1: OK OK I know bitcoin has intrinsic value because of many reasons - that's why I have cold storage.
NB2: Before you hit me with a stick, please remember this is the SPECULATION forum, and that's what I am doing - speculating  Wink
NB3: Oh come on please save me from the xkcd picture "my hobby:extrapolating". Be original with your memes, ffs Tongue
991  Economy / Speculation / Re: [VOTING] COINLAB SUE VS GOX | Price Predicition? on: May 03, 2013, 07:55:30 AM
the lawsuit does not give coinlab the legal right to take people's money. mtgox does not OWN that money. they can go after mtgox's money though

I unfortunately disagree.  Sad an exchange is not much different from a bank. With the difference that it's backed by no legislation to protect us.
Our Gox balance (fiat, btc) is money that Gox owes us. We are, in fact, Gox creditors. Guess what happens if Gox goes bankrupt...
992  Economy / Speculation / Re: [VOTING] COINLAB SUE VS GOX | Price Predicition? on: May 03, 2013, 04:52:52 AM
Assumptions:

1. users will want to take their savings the f*ck out, for fear their assets will be frozen otherwise.
2. Most users are, at best, verified status so they can't take out more than 100 btc/day or 10000 usd or eur /day. And not more than 50000 usd or eur per month anyway.

Assumption 2 will slow down the exodus of cash/coins.

Scenario 1: people try to get their cash out. Lots of fiat is removed from the market. Queues for withdrawals go up to the roof, and so do withdrawal delays. The removal of cash from the market causes utter price drops.

Scenario 2: people try to avoid delays in scenario 1 and try to get their btcs out to a different exchange. Price spiking in the long term due to the race to buy btcs and get the f out asap. (Bit like bitcoin-24 last days before official news of bank account being frozen).
993  Economy / Speculation / wasn't this supposed to be a LONG downward slide? on: May 03, 2013, 04:26:55 AM
It looks very fast to me...  Shocked

Ffs. Can't sleep when it's so bumpy to watch.
994  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 03, 2013, 04:18:09 AM
92.5

Me starts wondering if in the next months we'll ever see the low 20's, like double of when the bubble started.

On a side note: in a way this is too exciting to watch and so addictive I can't sleep.
(And neither can a certain Finnish guy here who's been up almost all night in his timezone - no offence, I'm just saying, uh...)
995  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 10:20:27 PM
A 3d depth chart spanning 1 Hour

its like 30 wall pics in one! fucking beautiful!

Indeed it is  Smiley
It'd be  nice if it had a way to represent depth on the vertical axis.

I was thinking more like landscape mapping with different colours.
Then the evolution of the walls over time would become a valley (or a canyon) and the price would be a river flowing in it.
996  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 09:34:52 PM
- 48 hours ago I felt that bitcoin is a buy @140
- It crashed through the 1st fibonacci support of 121
- I no longer felt that it is a buy since I knew it'll go to 95 (the 2nd fib. support)
(snip)
- Now I am happy, bitcoin will cross ATH this month and I make money

rpietila, out of genuine curiosity and my lack of expertise, how does Fibonacci analysis take into account psychologic factors, like the investment "memory" in picture below (which IMHO looks a lot like the 2011 crash):



What's your take on that?
997  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 09:08:19 PM
Wow, messy...



Looks beautiful to me...
998  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 07:11:52 PM
You don't manipulate the market with 1000 BTCs!  Angry

You actually do, if everyone's sitting on the fence.
999  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 07:11:04 PM
I listed 105 for sale at 94 and went out.  WTF has happened while I was away - I expect the prices to be in the 80s by now  Shocked

Just wait. Not today.
1000  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 02, 2013, 07:30:21 AM
at this point the network rate is so high that people aren't going to be making many coins anymore with ASIC. HAving an ASIC is like GPUS a year ago, and people weren't desperate to sell then either.

I believe that
1. Most miners have held their coins since January. Recent trends might make them want to dump the 100k coins produced since.
2. Not profitable for a western individual miner (exception made for Icelanders who have near-free energy) but in the short term very profitable for Chinese people with know-how or for businesses and loaded tycoons who can buy the chips from Avalon in batches of 10000 or build their own.

Sent from my phone sorry for spelling errors
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