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201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2017, 08:53:14 AM
It only takes a trillion USD market cap for $50k bitcoin. There is a total of ~$25 trillion in USA IRA's. Is it that hard to imagine global speculative bubbles that touch but do not sustain $1 trillion market cap by 2025? 2020?

0.1% of USA IRA funds ($25 billion) into the ETF bring us over $2500/BTC, and that is ignoring speculative buying by people in the trenches (us!).

you're forgetting how meaningless market cap is compared to real money.

25 billion real dollars put into bitcoin would push the price far beyond $2500. right now you could probably reach that price on the exchanges by spending 50-100 million dollars in one shot.

and if sellers sniffed out that there was a buyer with money to burn they'd go on strike and push the price up even further.
Only short term, in the long run, I think market cap is a very useful measure (it might only take a small amount of money to push up a market cap by a big amount, but then you are counting on people not cashing out, which might not happen short term, but long term.... )

haha we think alike:


There are two ways to think about the relationship between market cap and how much "real money" is invested into bitcoin.

1) short term. ECB is correct to point out that an injection of 25 billion dollars of "real money" would drive the price to the moon in the short term, due to liquidity issues.

2) long term. If you think in terms of steady state conditions, then cmacwiz's reasoning makes perfect sense.




Great minds huh  Wink.  Funny that I overlooked your post (I guess because I was a bit drunk).
202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2017, 12:24:12 AM
It only takes a trillion USD market cap for $50k bitcoin. There is a total of ~$25 trillion in USA IRA's. Is it that hard to imagine global speculative bubbles that touch but do not sustain $1 trillion market cap by 2025? 2020?

0.1% of USA IRA funds ($25 billion) into the ETF bring us over $2500/BTC, and that is ignoring speculative buying by people in the trenches (us!).

you're forgetting how meaningless market cap is compared to real money.

25 billion real dollars put into bitcoin would push the price far beyond $2500. right now you could probably reach that price on the exchanges by spending 50-100 million dollars in one shot.

and if sellers sniffed out that there was a buyer with money to burn they'd go on strike and push the price up even further.
Only short term, in the long run, I think market cap is a very useful measure (it might only take a small amount of money to push up a market cap by a big amount, but then you are counting on people not cashing out, which might not happen short term, but long term.... )
203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2017, 08:58:45 PM
Does anyone know how the COIN ETF shares would enter the market?  Is it basically just the Winklevoss twins that start of with all the shares who can then sell however much they want at whatever price and time they want?
204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2017, 08:02:31 AM
Obligatory breakout confirmation dump?  

By the way, you might want to change a number of your online passwords: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5vuih9/internet_psa_cloudbleed_cloudflare_leaked/
205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 23, 2017, 08:18:53 PM
sweet price action.
206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2017, 06:44:44 PM
Wow, I ate a big bag of shit today. Got wiped out.  I guess that's what you get when you get overconfident.
207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2017, 06:33:16 PM
Next 24 hrs are critical  Cool
208  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2017, 09:57:22 AM
Chart is looking good imho (but I appear to be prone to bullish optimism lately): 950-960 incoming?
209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2017, 09:29:53 PM
This really is not a pleasant place to be at the moment hey.

Real blood on the streets.

really? seems fine to me. the rise was a little silly and unrealistic. anyone shocked by this hasn't been paying enough attention the last few years. let's see what the rest of this month brings before getting gloomy.
Yeah, I think the general sentiment is still quite positive, people are bullish.
210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2017, 07:11:40 PM
What role does shorting play in a market ?

What does it bring to the table ?

Serious question.

Or is it just parasitic ?

It can be a force to bring an asset to it's proper value.  Let's say somebody starts StupidCoin, which is valued at 2 billion dollar but brings nothing useful to the table and is full with bugs.  Somehow, StupidCoin buyers still believe the marketcap is worth 2 billion.  The only option people have in a buy-only market is to not take part in that market.  When you can short, you can borrow the asset and sell it, thinking it will go down in price.  If you are correct, you will make a profit.  Thus, shorting could moderate irrational markets and help assets find their fair price sooner.  On the other hands, due to the mechanics of leveraged trading, this allows for all sorts of liquidation shenanigans.
211  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2017, 05:40:36 PM
I am quite sure we are going up now.
Unfortunately I underestimated the magnitude of the downwards correction, so now I am mostly looking to recoup my losses.
I know hindsight is 20/20, but this was really within the range of the predictable, and I should have made out like a bandit  Angry .  Ah well...

Cheers mate. Happy recovering. Stuck as well  Embarrassed Shitty day to start the week end.

Which are your favorite crypto-related Twitter accounts to follow ? I'm currently setting up alerts via IFTTT that automatically pushes me news I would miss otherwise.
I don't actively follow any twitter accounts.  Guess I am getting old  Smiley .
212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2017, 05:11:04 PM
I am quite sure we are going up now.
Unfortunately I underestimated the magnitude of the downwards correction, so now I am mostly looking to recoup my losses.
I know hindsight is 20/20, but this was really within the range of the predictable, and I should have made out like a bandit  Angry .  Ah well...
213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2017, 01:32:43 PM
Tried to catch the falling knife too soon on OKcoin and got liquidated hard :-/.
214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2017, 11:01:20 AM
I keep forgetting that I should set limit orders in times like this.  Would have loved to catch that spike on Finex but I was just taking a nap...  I guess events like these are why you tend to be glued to the screen 24/7 ...
215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2017, 05:38:10 PM
So yeah, here is me wishing I hadn't closed most of my (new) leverage longs a few hours ago...
216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2017, 05:14:52 PM
Well that escalated quickly...
217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2017, 05:12:24 PM
Hmm, this isn't looking as bearish as I'd like... Maybe the Chinese will pull an extension?

What about the BFX shorters' prisoner dilemma? There's 16k of them and only 6k in total asks.
An order book can change quickly

Also 8012 yuan, new ATH in yuan.
218  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2017, 05:11:05 PM
Just charge in dollars and accept payment in BTC with a window of a few hrs after the job is complete.
That way you can always charge the same for the job and no one will feel like they over or underpaid.


I have a problem with this price rise:

As many people know, I fix people's bitcoin miners for bitcoin payments. Thus I have to account for my time, skills, experience, and material costs (damn FPGAs are expensive when they blow up). I price my work in bitcoin because I want this currency to have a reason to exist other than as a speculation thingie.

Problem is the fluctuations: If I charge .3btc for a service and bitcoin drops from 600 to 300 I don't want to raise my bitcoin prices so I kept them constant. Likewise if it goes from 600-1200 I don't want to change my prices for the same basic reason (I'm doing work for a certain amount of bitcoin). But if it keeps going haywire, what do I do? What's fair? And at what point am I simply doing work for dollars instead of Bitcoin?

It's complex.
As long as dollars are less volatile than bitcoins, this method makes a lot more sense ( perhaps with a yearly repricing to account for inflation or other market dynamics).
219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2017, 09:41:35 AM
$3K per BTC by end of 2017 or bust.... Sad

I thought it was $3200 as decreed by that ancient oracle "adamstgBit" who has passed on to another realm.

So is it written. Verily it shall come to pass.

$32000. It is known.
It is known.
220  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2017, 07:14:56 PM
Happy 1000 bucks everyone !
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