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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 25, 2017, 08:53:14 AM
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It only takes a trillion USD market cap for $50k bitcoin. There is a total of ~$25 trillion in USA IRA's. Is it that hard to imagine global speculative bubbles that touch but do not sustain $1 trillion market cap by 2025? 2020?
0.1% of USA IRA funds ($25 billion) into the ETF bring us over $2500/BTC, and that is ignoring speculative buying by people in the trenches (us!).
you're forgetting how meaningless market cap is compared to real money. 25 billion real dollars put into bitcoin would push the price far beyond $2500. right now you could probably reach that price on the exchanges by spending 50-100 million dollars in one shot. and if sellers sniffed out that there was a buyer with money to burn they'd go on strike and push the price up even further. Only short term, in the long run, I think market cap is a very useful measure (it might only take a small amount of money to push up a market cap by a big amount, but then you are counting on people not cashing out, which might not happen short term, but long term.... ) haha we think alike: There are two ways to think about the relationship between market cap and how much "real money" is invested into bitcoin. 1) short term. ECB is correct to point out that an injection of 25 billion dollars of "real money" would drive the price to the moon in the short term, due to liquidity issues. 2) long term. If you think in terms of steady state conditions, then cmacwiz's reasoning makes perfect sense. Great minds huh . Funny that I overlooked your post (I guess because I was a bit drunk).
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 25, 2017, 12:24:12 AM
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It only takes a trillion USD market cap for $50k bitcoin. There is a total of ~$25 trillion in USA IRA's. Is it that hard to imagine global speculative bubbles that touch but do not sustain $1 trillion market cap by 2025? 2020?
0.1% of USA IRA funds ($25 billion) into the ETF bring us over $2500/BTC, and that is ignoring speculative buying by people in the trenches (us!).
you're forgetting how meaningless market cap is compared to real money. 25 billion real dollars put into bitcoin would push the price far beyond $2500. right now you could probably reach that price on the exchanges by spending 50-100 million dollars in one shot. and if sellers sniffed out that there was a buyer with money to burn they'd go on strike and push the price up even further. Only short term, in the long run, I think market cap is a very useful measure (it might only take a small amount of money to push up a market cap by a big amount, but then you are counting on people not cashing out, which might not happen short term, but long term.... )
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 06, 2017, 09:29:53 PM
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This really is not a pleasant place to be at the moment hey.
Real blood on the streets.
really? seems fine to me. the rise was a little silly and unrealistic. anyone shocked by this hasn't been paying enough attention the last few years. let's see what the rest of this month brings before getting gloomy. Yeah, I think the general sentiment is still quite positive, people are bullish.
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 06, 2017, 07:11:40 PM
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What role does shorting play in a market ?
What does it bring to the table ?
Serious question.
Or is it just parasitic ?
It can be a force to bring an asset to it's proper value. Let's say somebody starts StupidCoin, which is valued at 2 billion dollar but brings nothing useful to the table and is full with bugs. Somehow, StupidCoin buyers still believe the marketcap is worth 2 billion. The only option people have in a buy-only market is to not take part in that market. When you can short, you can borrow the asset and sell it, thinking it will go down in price. If you are correct, you will make a profit. Thus, shorting could moderate irrational markets and help assets find their fair price sooner. On the other hands, due to the mechanics of leveraged trading, this allows for all sorts of liquidation shenanigans.
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 06, 2017, 05:40:36 PM
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I am quite sure we are going up now. Unfortunately I underestimated the magnitude of the downwards correction, so now I am mostly looking to recoup my losses. I know hindsight is 20/20, but this was really within the range of the predictable, and I should have made out like a bandit . Ah well... Cheers mate. Happy recovering. Stuck as well Shitty day to start the week end. Which are your favorite crypto-related Twitter accounts to follow ? I'm currently setting up alerts via IFTTT that automatically pushes me news I would miss otherwise. I don't actively follow any twitter accounts. Guess I am getting old .
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 04, 2017, 05:11:05 PM
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Just charge in dollars and accept payment in BTC with a window of a few hrs after the job is complete. That way you can always charge the same for the job and no one will feel like they over or underpaid. I have a problem with this price rise:
As many people know, I fix people's bitcoin miners for bitcoin payments. Thus I have to account for my time, skills, experience, and material costs (damn FPGAs are expensive when they blow up). I price my work in bitcoin because I want this currency to have a reason to exist other than as a speculation thingie.
Problem is the fluctuations: If I charge .3btc for a service and bitcoin drops from 600 to 300 I don't want to raise my bitcoin prices so I kept them constant. Likewise if it goes from 600-1200 I don't want to change my prices for the same basic reason (I'm doing work for a certain amount of bitcoin). But if it keeps going haywire, what do I do? What's fair? And at what point am I simply doing work for dollars instead of Bitcoin?
It's complex.
As long as dollars are less volatile than bitcoins, this method makes a lot more sense ( perhaps with a yearly repricing to account for inflation or other market dynamics).
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