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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply on: August 24, 2020, 01:33:16 PM
I think we can safely see now (in 2020), how money supply inflation directly affects asset prices, including Bitcoin.

2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 31, 2018, 01:25:16 PM

I created a spreadsheet with a square root fitted to Gox/Bitstamp concatenated price history.
Here's a link to the spreadsheet


edit:  below, charting price with respect to the sqrt baseline.

Interesting work!
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: March 20, 2018, 03:16:31 PM
whats nice is that time will show who's right

in 1 week we'll literally be around 5k$

and this is isn't based on TA or some other dubious wave analysis, this is coming right from the temple of Apollo

The 'literally' in your sentence makes me believe you're wrong.

I would normally agree, but this person may actually be right this time. There's a lot of evidence to support 5k by next week, including the amount of price compression that has been going on over the last 5 trading periods. However, that same compression can also be fuel for the bulls to push price into 11k.

One thing is clear, we will know which side wins very soon. I think in about a week, maybe 2.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: February 04, 2018, 12:11:48 AM
Good traders are popular because they offer great trading advice... great traders are unheard of because they take their own advice.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 30, 2017, 05:04:52 PM
I wonder how much of this (BTC dominance dropping) has to do with taking advantage of 2017's tax code... total crypto market cap is still relatively high at over $500 billion as the price of BTC falls.

If the logic is true, then we will see that change on New years. Also, could mean another day of selling.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 26, 2017, 04:38:55 PM
I have to admit that I was wrong about the CME closing negative every day last week; it actually closed positive on Friday. While this does affect the direction of the trend from what I originally thought (yes I know, obvious now, but...), it doesn't change my opinion that the futures market has influence over spot. Here's why...

These past 3 days, following Friday's close, just saw price rotate around the futures close price of $13800 (Bitstamp), in a range of +-$1500 (between $12500 and $15700), and last night (Futures Tuesday open) we started pushing higher FROM $13800 to continue Friday's move higher from the low of $11k. It's almost as if the past 3 days were meaningless, just waiting for futures to open again.

Also note how the price went from the all time high at $19666 exactly when the CME opened at 6PM on the 17th, to being driven down every single day throughout the week as futures were trading, until Friday.

Yes, I admit that I was wrong about today being a negative day, based on my false perception that Friday closed negative as well. However, I really do think the CME has an affect on the spot market. Whether or not it is a direct affect, or one that is behind the scenes is definitely open to debate. But the evidence is clear. IMO, I believe that we are finally seeing who controls these markets.

Anyway, I appreciate the feedback. Thank you.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: December 25, 2017, 10:33:04 PM
Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: November 03, 2016, 08:29:35 PM
lol, it is 683 now...

edit: 680

yep, on it's way.

Right on schedule. Damn.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: September 15, 2016, 12:02:22 PM
So far, 2016 is pretty good, but there aren't any clear signs of a real rally still.

Price hasn't broken the ATH, but I wouldn't say that we're still in a bear market. IMO, we have been back in an up-trending bull market since after the first half of 2015...

10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: September 14, 2016, 05:54:10 PM
Its pretty amazing how his EW predictions come to fruition, but why?  Why would this pattern apply in a seemingly random fairly large group of traders who dictate the price by their sentiment and actions??

The EW structures also meet the common definition of a fractal. Fractals are natural, mathematical patterns of evolving symmetry found in nature...

In my opinion (which I would love to write a thesis on one day), human behavior seems to derive from a fractal thought process, and thus price movements are also fractal. If you look at the human brain and how it functions, much of it is symmetrical, self-similar, and recursive (see 'The Fractal Brian Theory' by Wai Tsang); I think this is why we see fractal patterns manifest in price discovery.

Based off personal experience, there are lots of securities that display these properties (especially intraday), but some are more apparent than others. Bitcoin has one of the most apparent fractal structures, IMO. Maybe because it has the least amount of artificial market-moving influences (like central bank or government policy).
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: September 12, 2016, 11:50:23 PM
This past year's gradual bullish sentiment (and where I think we all know we're headed) got me to thinking of old times when Masterluc said this crazy thing, and it made a lot of people upset...

I thought the end will have more epic start. Third day in a row I wake up, see charts and ask myself "Is this the end?" and third day in a row answer is "Yes".

Had to dig it up... but I remember the exact comment when Masterluc became bearish, almost 3 years ago... 5 days after the ATH made on November 30th, 2013.

I remember because the next projected dates he said were so far away away, and at the time seemed so ridiculous...

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

But if Masterluc was going to be proven right about the top (which he later was), then I suppose it wasn't such a crazy timeline...

This was followed by an epitaph of the historical first wave...

What exactly do you mean by 'end'? Value getting halved? double digits? pennies?
End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.

But it wasn't all bad.

Later on August 19th, 2015, Masterluc had become a bull again...

I analyzed situation and made conclusion. I will not close my long and decide buy every bottom since here. As you remember, I advice it since price reached 270-230 for first timever since ATH. Price is in this range so far with some short deviations.

Repeat half year old post ($230). Price is in safe multi year buy zone. From here to zero. Hehe.

And about 5 days later, the price bottomed out at $200...

and has not touched it since.

Masterluc has done lots of great short-term analysis in-between and since these posts, but I remember these comments being distinctly different as a shift in his long-term sentiment, and ultimately they stuck with me... especially when they were accurately reaffirmed everyday thereafter.

I just wanted to put this all together somewhere for posterity, because it really is quite an impressive series of long term calls. And I'm sure for a lot of us who have been here as long as Masterluc's thread has existed (and his old one too), we know these things... but I guess what I'm trying to say is...

Masterluc has a record of missing long-term high's and lows by roughly 5 days, give or take. So why are we even bothering to listen to this fool?

What a garbage thread.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: September 08, 2016, 11:53:21 PM
$700 for the top of 'b'?

Always have my eye on this thread ;-)
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: August 15, 2016, 12:16:12 AM
I'll be completely honest, on its own, NIRP presents a very valid use case for Bitcoin.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: June 24, 2016, 03:35:21 AM
How about these futures markets, eh? Crazy ride right now... those Brits sure are causin' a bit of a ruckus :-)
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: June 23, 2016, 10:41:55 PM
I wonder how much the halving had to do with the run-up in price. Bitcoin investors know that if the price isn't at a certain level, Bitcoin's mining incentives are slightly compromised, thus so is bitcoin. And this being a highly speculative investment, perhaps these heavily invested groups are simply attempting to save the value of their large Bitcoin portfolio by investing more into it?

Makes sense on paper, probably what happened, but we'll never know for sure.

Also, I'm happy to see that you are commenting a little more, lucif Smiley I am usually disengaged with Bitcoin in general when you're not around.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis ended on: January 14, 2016, 09:24:18 PM
S&P, sorry for confusion.

If S&P breaks 1935, we will see 2000 again.

I'm playing it safe on BTC and waiting on the side with USD... global markets are entering the bear cycle down and I think people will sell, not buy BTC.

Of course, the last thing lucif posted was a prediction that we are entering the largest upward wave, so I could be completely wrong.

I decline to analze this. The multi year Great 3 has been started.

Of course it may pop at some point, then recover, but there wasn't even 4rd wave since 240. All this is the local 3rd.

Anyway, this is above my skillz. I waited this great 3, it comes suddenly. I quit. Bye guys. Analysis ended.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis ended on: January 12, 2016, 01:53:01 AM
support here at 1900
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis ended on: January 05, 2016, 10:52:13 PM
US equities are at an interesting technical support level... could be a very bad month.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Parity watch -> Who's next? on: November 05, 2015, 11:06:25 PM
I forgot about this thread  Cool

Good shit for reviving this guys Smiley
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis ended on: November 05, 2015, 12:03:04 PM
TECHNICALS! Alright, here's what I'm seeing guys...

Well I was wrong.

I have no idea how high this is going. To be fair, I don't think anyone does at this point.

I'm wondering though, we didn't have leveraged buying back 2013 right? At least not to the extent we have today... I wonder how large of a role that is playing here.

OK. So after reality decided to come back, this ended up just being a huge wick on my charts... albeit, enough to have briefly lost faith in my own TA.

Faith *slightly* restored.... but I agree with Luc, that was insane.

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