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121
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL ASIC mining board project
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on: September 28, 2013, 02:36:12 PM
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fianl is board for 8 chips or 16 chips?
Final board is 8 chips. We thought about 16 and decided the size, power and cooling would be issues. However, our architecture fully supports 16 and we COULD make a 16 chip board in the future. I'm just not sure either of us are willing to take on that much work and stress at this point.  Also, is there any point really? Are there any upsides to not just running two smaller boards? |
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123
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Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL ASIC mining board project
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on: September 28, 2013, 01:59:20 PM
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Yes, a big thank you to both MrTeal and ChipGeek for making this a reality, incredibly smooth and professional!
Question: how are people going to house their boards? They have PCI brackets on them, but I have a lot of boards coming and would quite like to get some sort of casing that can hold rows and rows of PCI cards, but don't have a stack of old motherboards lying around, which would have worked.
Does anyone know of any cases for holding rows of PCI cards? Or have any other thoughts on how to handle this? (and obviously space needs to be left for the coolers in between)
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124
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Economy / Computer hardware / Re: **SOLD** [WTS] Qty 100 BFL Chips ACCT XFER - 30 BTC for lot
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on: September 27, 2013, 10:36:16 PM
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Hello,
Thank you for the 100 chips for 27.5 btc. Order transfer completed and i got the conformation from BFL that it is shipping to my address directly tomorrow (so they are on schedule as well). I have released the escrow. This is the most smooth transaction i have had till now over the forum.
Thank you
Glad you managed to work something out, not at all surprised it was a smooth transaction, kosmokramer seems like a good guy! Enjoy the miners!  |
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125
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 27, 2013, 01:35:48 PM
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Yes, i think your right.. Its someone that was given shares for gear and is cashing out.. Im mostly speculating, but I think im spot on...No reason to panic.
I am not speculating, I keep a record of exactly what is happening  Indeed, but only movement from one of them. You are not alone in keeping records  Right. It is not so hard to store regular snapshots of the asset list and set up a couple of scripts to get the interesting info out of the data.I am sure many people do that. I have been too busy to script it sadly, but it's certainly something I've wanted to get around to, and as you say, I'm sure a lot of people have. It's amazing how much identifiable info you can get out of anonymised data - makes you wonder about bitcoin's anonymity in general really (though it is pretty well known that it's nowhere near as anonymous as people think). |
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126
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 27, 2013, 12:44:26 PM
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Yes, i think your right.. Its someone that was given shares for gear and is cashing out.. Im mostly speculating, but I think im spot on...No reason to panic.
I am not speculating, I keep a record of exactly what is happening Indeed, but only movement from one of them. You are not alone in keeping records |
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128
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 27, 2013, 01:49:09 AM
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...it would run bitcoin up to $200 to $220 on Mt.Gox. However, that cluster of resistance around $180 seems quite strong, and $180 isn't toooo far from $200. So, $180 seems like another place to develop some sideways movement, maybe there, another ascending wedge will develop. In either case, it might be a good time to trade out of bitcoins (if trading), and wait to see how the market develops.
Also, $180 would probably be the "real" price corresponding to a MtGox price of $200 (expect the gap to widen in $, i.e. maintain a fixed ratio between MtGox and other exchanges as prices rise, as the exchange differential is an expression of perceived risk in MtGox and therefore a scale-factor not an absolute difference). Anywho - this is going wildly off topic...  |
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129
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 27, 2013, 12:44:44 AM
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Thanks!
Haha. I don't know if you were being sarcastic or not It's so subjective. Or just thanking me for taking the time to answer. Of course, this idea is no guarantee in my thinking. That would be foolish. It's subjective. But if I were an active bitcoin trader, I'd be quite interested at this point to either be accumulating or readying to buy at a higher level (e.g. breaking over $148-$150). But if accumulating, also ready to sell off (stop loss) if it went below ~$130 on Mt.Gox. Not sarcastic at all, but mainly thanking you for taking the time to answer. I would need to hear and see more before deciding whether it had merit, and I don't have the time to engage, but appreciated the answer nonetheless. You showed me an analysis of yours before and I quite liked it, but again didn't have the chance to engage. Either way, it's all academic for me as all my funds are already tied up across a variety of things. I was just interested to hear as it would obviously be good for me if BTC went up! |
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130
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 27, 2013, 12:34:46 AM
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For whatever it's worth - which is not much - exchange price for bitcoin looks (to me) ready to surge up over the next few weeks. $180 is quite doable.
How so? The surge is based on price activity/patterns. The $180 is based on MtGox values. It's pretty subjective, that's why I said it's not worth much. It's mostly based on having watched prior price activities unfold in the past on all kinds of securities (a long time interest I've had). It's subjective, but based on historical observations. I'll feel more comfortable once it breaks $145 again, and especially $148-$150 on MtGox. Thanks! |
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131
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 27, 2013, 12:17:42 AM
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Agree with the take home point. But wanted to edit the comment anyway. New one would have read:
EDIT: Good points. Seems likely that prices will drop fast and relatively soon. Only thought I can think to add is that Cointerra chips are larger in size per chip.
I wonder how much fabric 4000 Cointerra(CT) chips would cover in terms of BFL chips? If one Cointerra (CT) chip is 100 times faster, you'd need 100 BFL chips. But CT chips are about 5.3 times denser (i.e. 65^2/28^2). So, I guess the fabric size of a CT chip would be 100/5.3 = 18.86 times a BFL chip. So, maybe 4000 CT chips would be more like making (60*18.56) 1132 BFL Singles? Still something they should be able to manufacture in relatively short order.
Firstly, it's really not relevant as the actual chip cost is pennies. Pennies times a factor of quite a lot is still nothing when you're selling the product for thousands of dollars! But also, the scaling breaks down because the designs are going to be very different (i.e. BFL's was pretty shitty, hence, despite what they claim, not actually achieving much better performance than the Avalon chips in terms of energy (and even speed per transistor I think, though I should check that...)) - I imagine CoinTerra's offering will be close to optimal, and BFL's was, well let's just say, not. Also, just look at the die size for these calculations, the process node isn't so relevant. Yeah, BFL was probably not so optimal. I was just roughing it in the same line of thought as you, just looking at what a more accurate comparison of BFL singles produces might be. That is, only in terms production - it was nothing to do with costs. Well, the main point to consider with respect to production, is that CoinTerra will have good working relationships with the fab, good experience of product development cycles, won't have belligerent PR managers, and will generally not sit around with the thumbs up their asses insulting people when in fact, people in glass houses should just be building some fucking miners and not throwing stones! </rant> But as I said, many pennies is still pennies, costs are not relevant. But prices won't drop crazy fast because of the electricity factor. They need to milk as much money out of miners as they can before the units become unprofitable to buy and run. Look at it this way: you couldn't even give GPUs away these days (for mining), they have negative value on the market. Soon that will be the case for most ASICs, so they need to maximise their income before that is the case, so don't expect rock-bottom prices too soon... |
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133
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 27, 2013, 12:06:53 AM
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Agree with the take home point. But wanted to edit the comment anyway. New one would have read:
EDIT: Good points. Seems likely that prices will drop fast and relatively soon. Only thought I can think to add is that Cointerra chips are larger in size per chip.
I wonder how much fabric 4000 Cointerra(CT) chips would cover in terms of BFL chips? If one Cointerra (CT) chip is 100 times faster, you'd need 100 BFL chips. But CT chips are about 5.3 times denser (i.e. 65^2/28^2). So, I guess the fabric size of a CT chip would be 100/5.3 = 18.86 times a BFL chip. So, maybe 4000 CT chips would be more like making (60*18.56) 1132 BFL Singles? Still something they should be able to manufacture in relatively short order.
Firstly, it's really not relevant as the actual chip cost is pennies. Pennies times a factor of quite a lot is still nothing when you're selling the product for thousands of dollars! But also, the scaling breaks down because the designs are going to be very different (i.e. BFL's was pretty shitty, hence, despite what they claim, not actually achieving much better performance than the Avalon chips in terms of energy (and even speed per transistor I think, though I should check that...)) - I imagine CoinTerra's offering will be close to optimal, and BFL's was, well let's just say, not. Also, just look at the die size for these calculations, the process node isn't so relevant. |
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134
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 26, 2013, 11:38:56 PM
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FWIW, and I haven't run the numbers (yet), but I am fairly sure they will turn out to say that electricity consumption will stop people buying miners no matter what their prices are long before manufacturers have to worry about profitability...
(this obviously assumes no huge increase in the BTC price amongst several other things)
Yeah, that seems possible. In either case, the result to the miner is the same - hardware will have low profitability. Just a few thoughts here: The cost to run 1TH of 28nm will be about $70/month. Assuming an ROI of 10 months as a standard that was common with video cards, that means hardware costing $700/TH would be the limit. And I bet mfg's would be profitable at that price. But that equilibrium won't happen until about a difficulty of 33 billion (it's currently about 148 million), or stated another way, until a little over 200 times as much hashing power hits the network. Hmmm. Looking at it like that, it kind of seems manufacturers would have a hard time delivering that much hardware anytime soon. Cointerra was talking about dropping 2 PH on the network by year end. That would only be 13 to 14 times the current hash rate. They and other 28nm manufacturers would need to ship ~16 times as much hardware as that to hit 33 billion. I'm curious as to when miners will collectively seem to not buy hardware. Will it be when the the electrical cost is 20%, 25%, 50%, maybe 90%  ... of the monthly coins generated? I don't think it has historically been much more than 10%, but I'm not sure. Historically it has been a LOT more than 10% before; it's hit 100% before for standard GPU mining in places with mid-priced power, so those numbers aren't crazy at all. Also, the figures for the network aren't daft either. CoinTerra dropping 2PH was with only 4k chips. 4k CHIPS!! That's the same as in 60 BFL singles! So multiplying their produciton alone up by a factor of 16 isn't at all unrealistic on the face of it. I'm run off my feet right now, so can't contribute much more to the discussion, but just to say that those numbers aren't silly, and that electricity will always be the limiting factor, I'm pretty sure. Good points. The only difference however is that BFL SC Single's chips are smaller and simpler architecture (28nm is about 5.3 times denser). So, if you proportion that to 60 BFL Singles x 5.3 = 318 BFL Singles. Still not a lot. And then there are the other 28nm mfg's. So, from that, I'd still guess miner prices will drop a lot and relatively soon. Density here is not relevant, and the cost of mask sets does not scale linearly with process node - 28nm is a LOT more expensive than 65nm. But once the NRE is paid for, chips are, as they say, as cheap as chips! So once CoinTerra have made the first 4k, the rest are pennies, which as you rightly say, means they can afford to sell cheap. The take-home point here is that shit is going to go down, and, just as it was before, the winners are going to be those with the most energy efficient miners (or the ones who got the inefficient chips early enough that it didn't matter, but that is only a temporary win). |
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135
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 26, 2013, 10:56:41 PM
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FWIW, and I haven't run the numbers (yet), but I am fairly sure they will turn out to say that electricity consumption will stop people buying miners no matter what their prices are long before manufacturers have to worry about profitability...
(this obviously assumes no huge increase in the BTC price amongst several other things)
Yeah, that seems possible. In either case, the result to the miner is the same - hardware will have low profitability. Just a few thoughts here: The cost to run 1TH of 28nm will be about $70/month. Assuming an ROI of 10 months as a standard that was common with video cards, that means hardware costing $700/TH would be the limit. And I bet mfg's would be profitable at that price. But that equilibrium won't happen until about a difficulty of 33 billion (it's currently about 148 million), or stated another way, until a little over 200 times as much hashing power hits the network. Hmmm. Looking at it like that, it kind of seems manufacturers would have a hard time delivering that much hardware anytime soon. Cointerra was talking about dropping 2 PH on the network by year end. That would only be 13 to 14 times the current hash rate. They and other 28nm manufacturers would need to ship ~16 times as much hardware as that to hit 33 billion. I'm curious as to when miners will collectively seem to not buy hardware. Will it be when the the electrical cost is 20%, 25%, 50%, maybe 90% ... of the monthly coins generated? I don't think it has historically been much more than 10%, but I'm not sure. Historically it has been a LOT more than 10% before; it's hit 100% before for standard GPU mining in places with mid-priced power, so those numbers aren't crazy at all. Also, the figures for the network aren't daft either. CoinTerra dropping 2PH was with only 4k chips. 4k CHIPS!! That's the same as in 60 BFL singles! So multiplying their produciton alone up by a factor of 16 isn't at all unrealistic on the face of it. I'm run off my feet right now, so can't contribute much more to the discussion, but just to say that those numbers aren't silly, and that electricity will always be the limiting factor, I'm pretty sure. |
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136
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 26, 2013, 10:32:03 PM
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well, If it were anyone other than BFL, I would say stay the course, but since its BFL, then yea, selling is probably good option. But, I don't know how he can get out of it since there is no refunds. I guess since he got 25 percent off, there is a little wiggle room to get the entire amount back.. If we keep the monarchs and BFL ships on time (yea, pigs do fly) then it should be okay, but with BFL's track record Im afraid that bet wont pay off.
But, Im sure Zach will do whats in the best interest of LRM..
Yes, he will, but BFL won't, and this should be sold if it's possible. Assuming BFL are still selling some of these units then the queue-jump that you get from buying an early order, combined with the discount voucher used, should mean that it's not too hard to sell. The problem, of course, is splitting the order down, as BFL probably won't help with that, and there aren't likely to be any buyers big enough to take the whole order. Maybe he can use his history with them to persuade them to split the order across several people if he was to sell it...? |
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137
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 26, 2013, 10:28:42 PM
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Im almost 100 percent certain that they wont deliver on time.. Im just saying odd wise, they might have a chance this time. I mean, how many times can a company screw up? they need to hit their time frame at least one time out of four, you would think...
I think you may need to revisit your stats textbooks... The previous outcomes don't make it more likely for them to get it right in the future if the events are independent, and if they're not, then the way I see it, the fact they have failed many times in the past makes it more likely that they'll screw up again, not less. A leopard doesn't change it's spot and all that. And as you rightly say, they aren't punished for it, people keep buying - what's the motivation to get it right? Im just wondering who (and how many miners) LR has made a commitment from.. I have heard that he has purchased some monarchs, but I don't know a number, a run down on what has been committed would be nice, if there is a post somewhere already with this info would be nice as well..
Many people are wondering about this, but LR is very busy at the moment and so communication has been less than ideal and less than it was before. This is all for the good of the company though, as good stuff is being put into action. However, as you are far from alone in wondering about this (just look up the thread!), hopefully there will be some word on this when he's got some time... EDIT: If you can find a buyer for the Monarch order I'm sure he would be willing to sell. That said, it's hard to arrange when you don't know how many you're selling... I'm pretty sure he has ordered about $150,000 worth of Monarchs!! That is why I would like to see him sell out on that order. And asked others to ask him if they see a problem with that. Being tied up with BFL Monarchs may be the biggest downside with LRM at this time, imo. I fully agree, and I believe his position on this is similar as well and that he would sell them if he could, though I could obviously be wrong as I don't speak for him. I think the main thing stopping this sale becoming a reality is just not knowing how many there are to sell preventing anyone from seriously trying to sort out buyers... |
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139
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 26, 2013, 06:02:32 PM
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As a large shareholder I agree with the two week dividends going to improve the company
Sorry guys for sidetracking this thread but.... Bargraphics, Why did you delete all of your posts in the TerraHash thread? Did they stop paying you? Why the random quote of his in your post, is it relevant? Why are you posting this here? This is either a job for a PM or requires a bit more context IMHO... |
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140
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Economy / Securities / Re: Lab Rat Data Processing, LLC (LabRatMining) Official Announcement
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on: September 26, 2013, 05:59:13 PM
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Im almost 100 percent certain that they wont deliver on time.. Im just saying odd wise, they might have a chance this time. I mean, how many times can a company screw up? they need to hit their time frame at least one time out of four, you would think...
I think you may need to revisit your stats textbooks... The previous outcomes don't make it more likely for them to get it right in the future if the events are independent, and if they're not, then the way I see it, the fact they have failed many times in the past makes it more likely that they'll screw up again, not less. A leopard doesn't change it's spot and all that. And as you rightly say, they aren't punished for it, people keep buying - what's the motivation to get it right? Im just wondering who (and how many miners) LR has made a commitment from.. I have heard that he has purchased some monarchs, but I don't know a number, a run down on what has been committed would be nice, if there is a post somewhere already with this info would be nice as well..
Many people are wondering about this, but LR is very busy at the moment and so communication has been less than ideal and less than it was before. This is all for the good of the company though, as good stuff is being put into action. However, as you are far from alone in wondering about this (just look up the thread!), hopefully there will be some word on this when he's got some time... EDIT: If you can find a buyer for the Monarch order I'm sure he would be willing to sell. That said, it's hard to arrange when you don't know how many you're selling... |
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