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61  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How to play gambling in a smart way? on: April 13, 2016, 10:30:15 AM
The answer depends on the type of gambling you consider:

- Casino (machines, dices...):
In those games, the uncertainty is under full control of the gambling house. Suppose you play a roulette game: even if all the outcomes (numbers on the roulette) are equally likely, the pattern of the randomness is known by the gambling house and this is an advantage you cannot beat in the long run.
Of course, you can always get lucky and beat the gambling house from time to time but casino is a pure luck and no skill game.
Consequently, you cannot gamble in a smart way with this type of game.

- Poker:
I have very little experience with those but I think it depends on whether you play against bots or humans. In the former case, the situation is the same as casino but in the latter case, I guess skill can make a real difference and allows you to make money

- Sports Betting:
There are two key factors to take into account:
+ assessment of the chances of each outcome (probabilities)
+ percentage of your bankroll you need to put at stake
The first one is quite easy to do if you have a good knowledge of the sport you bet on and even if you don't, just look at the odds of a few bookmakers to get an idea of the forces in presence.
The second one is more tricky. As far as I know, the best (safe) way is to use a technique called the Kelly criterion. Depending on a few parameters, it tells you how much (in terms of percentage) you need to bet to achieve the highest possible return in average on the long run.
I also strongly recommend to abuse sure betting or any other forms of arbitrage-like techniques.
62  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible! on: April 13, 2016, 10:01:53 AM
I assume you are talking about sports betting here otherwise, there is no real way to achieve a profit.

If you really want to win money when gambling, there are two key factors to take into account:

- assessment of the chances of each outcome (probabilities)
- percentage of your bankroll you need to put at stake

The first one is quite easy to do if you have a good knowledge of the sport you bet on and even if you don't, just look at the odds of a few bookmakers to get an idea of the forces in presence.

The second one is more tricky. As far as I know, the best (safe) way is to use a technique called the Kelly criterion. Depending on a few parameters, it tells you how much (in terms of percentage) you need to bet to achieve the highest possible return in average on the long run.

I also strongly recommend to abuse sure betting or any other forms of arbitrage-like techniques.
63  Economy / Gambling / PrediMarket.net - Temporary shut down announcement on: April 13, 2016, 07:40:27 AM
Hello everyone,

We have been online for a few months now, always trying to bring something new to the betting industry.

As some of you may know, we have been using a peculiar pricing system which has proven to be very hard to calibrate over the past months.
We have tried many different settings but it is intrinsically difficult to find the correct balance between competitive odds and risk management precisely because of our pricing system.

As a consequence, we announce that we will shut down the website for a temporary period. You are kindly asked to not deposit or place more bets past this Friday. All bets placed from Saturday will be refunded.
You are invited to withdraw your belongings before the end of the week as the website should go offline during Sunday.

E-mails containing this message will be delivered to each of our customer.

We will use this break to rework our system and hopefully bring some new features as well.

Thanks for betting with us and we hope to be back soon.

Best regards,
The PrediMarket Team

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A new version of PrediMarket has just been released!

What's new?
  • You now have access to lay betting, making PrediMarket effectively a betting exchange. Your betting counterpart is always PrediMarket, ready to back or lay any outcome at any time, thus ensuring the liquidity of bets!
  • Betting limits have been substantially increased!
  • Increased range of soccer competitions

Tell us what you think!

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PrediMarket, a genuinely innovative Bitcoin Sportsbook for both desktop and mobile.

Why is PrediMarket innovative?

PrediMarket is a Sportsbook Betting Exchange offering a continuous range of fixed-odds.
The back/lay odds you get for an outcome depend on the total wages already placed by other gamblers on that outcome and the amount you want to bet, like other sportsbooks, but the odds balancing is done in real time here!
Thus, you can ask for the odds you like best by adjusting your wage!

Is it like parimutuel then?

NO, IT'S NOT! Parimutuel only gives you variable odds, hence your are not guaranteed to win a fixed amount if you bet correctly.
On the contrary, potential winnings with PrediMarket are guaranteed like regular fixed-odds betting exchange.

Additional features:
  • Instant, 1 confirmation deposit (3 confirmations for large deposits)
  • Instant withdrawals at all times: the deposited bitcoins remain yours until you place them in a bet
  • Minimum deposit: 0.0002 BTC
  • Fixed margin as low as 2% on odds and fixed winnings commission of 2% for back and lay bets meaning very high odds

PrediMarket will be in beta stage until further notice. This means:
  • Fixtures are limited to football (soccer) games for now
  • LIVE betting is disabled for now

In case you have any questions, feel free to post them below or file a request to our Helpdesk.
The last thing we want is customers getting stuck on any aspect of PrediMarket!

Join us now!
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