Got killed on march madness the other day, especially Tennessee (guess that's why it's madness). Probably doing too many parlays for the contest and should be doing single bets (oh well, having fun). Betting on ESPN UFC tonight. Parlayed Tuivasa under 1.5 rounds and Holland ml.
I think Tai Tuivasa-Harry Hunsucker will end quickly.
Tai Tuivasa's replacement opponent tonight Harry Hunsucker (
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Harry-Hunsucker-239513) in all his past 10 fights never leaves the first round. Tai Tuivasa to win @1.21, Tai Tuivasa by ko/tko/dq/sub @1.36, under 1.5 rounds @1.36, and Tai Tuivasa to win in the first round @1.7 seem fairly likely. Puncher's chance has Harry first round @11.0, Harry by ko/tko/dq/sub @5.5. It seems more likely that Tuivasa wins based on experience, and if you look at Tuivasa's past (
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tai-Tuivasa-133745) most of of his wins happen in the first round. But Tuivasa has only won 1 of last 4 fights. He's facing an unfamiliar opponent. There's a small chance Tuivasa doesn't do enough in the first round to finish Hunsucker, and stops him in the second round (Tuivasa to win second round @6.5 seems to be value for that chance, but will it even get there).
I also think that Holland will win against Brunson.
https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kevin-Holland-108999https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derek-Brunson-68494Holland is younger (28, Brunson is 37), has been more active (5-0 in 2020 vs Brunson's 1-0), has a 4 inch reach advantage, and appears more confident. Brunson has good wrestling and frequently ends fights after taking down opponents, but Holland appears to have decent defensive wrestling, and is able to pose a threat from all positions. I think the longer the fight goes the more advantage Brunson will have, and he will want to basically win rounds by wrestling/dominant position. I'm banking on Holland to win the striking battle, and to ko/tko early, or win enough rounds by being more offensive in a close decision.
Crash and burn! Slowly digging a hole that I won't get out of for the contest. I guess wrestling is the most important martial art in the UFC, and generally should bet more on the fighter with the better wrestling credentials who can control where the fight goes. Holland looked like he was more concerned with making jokes tonight. Best of luck everyone
[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]
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