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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 18, 2024, 08:19:38 PM
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~snip
You didn't say which jurisdiction you are in.
I assumed you live in Ontario due to advice you gave me several years ago about a lake in the Orillia region.
Are you multi-jurisdictional? I know if you're a USA citizen they'll chase you all over the world for taxes. Does that apply to dual citizenship?
While I have the option, I decided long ago not to pursue US citizenship. My biggest concern was having to register for the draft but the tax code in the US is insanely complex and one of the hoops to jump through in order to get my citizenship was to file the 10 previous years of income tax forms. In my mind, it wouldn't make sense to pursue it unless I were to take up residence there on a permanent basis and I was already comfortable here. A friend of my sister is currently going through the process of renouncing her US citizenship and it involves an interview and a hefty processing fee. She's got a business in Canada and she's been paying US federal income tax every year - she has dual citizenship. I don't know the specifics of her case but there is a tax treaty between Canada and the US which prevents double taxation on your income so my mom never paid a dime in US taxes while she lived and worked here as a permanent resident. I guess the difference is employment vs self-employment. Being US citizen is a fucking mess when you are REALLY wealthy and 'global' citizen. You don't choose where you are born, but the (VERY agressive) tax system has nothing to envy of the communists countries... |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 16, 2024, 08:50:14 AM
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All those countries that have golden visas....first they want to attract investors, then they think that they are "selling out" too cheap. I wish there would be some larger country in EU that would announce something like that for bitcoin investors. Portugal looked OK for a while, but now they closed Lisbon and Algarve for residential investment, only commercial remains. Besides, Portugal is more attractive for non-US because US citizens pay taxes to almost the same degree, independently of where they live (with some deductions for foreign income). If taxes stay the same (no more than 23.8% for cap gains), I would stay put. I looked into Puerto-Rico before-lots of hassle and an unclear benefit. It would have paid nicely to buy btc in 2014-2015, then move to Puerto-Rico, then sell out in 2021 and move back to the mainland. No taxes on cap gains accrued between 2016-2021 in this scenario as it only affects cap gains AFTER you moved in. I hear that a few ICO a-holes did exactly that. But...I have had enough of tropics and subtropics  . I don't know exactly about US and if maybe you can optimize some parts, but it's correct regarding EU citizens. If you got the benefit of NHR tax scheme in Portugal, you don't pay any tax on foreign capital income (interests, dividends, royalties) for 10 years. NHR tax scheme or not, if you are tax resident in Portugal, you dont pay any tax on crypto capital gain after holding at least 365 years (have to declare on the tax form but its tax free). Coupled by if you allow a % of your cash out in some ETFS / stocks with dividends distributing like with IB brokers, you dont pay any tax and no WHT tax either (most of their ETFS are based in UK/Ireland so no WHT). Same if you stack some dirty fiats, no WHT, no tax on it then. It's just some examples that you can really well optimize, in you have these kind of incomes. So basically, if you are a long term holder + living from passive income (dividends, interests) Portugal is/was really a good alternative in Europe. As I said previously they stopped the NHR from 01/01/2024 (for the new applicants), but they are working for another tax incentive scheme for 'wealthy' digital nomad and HNWI+ So probably something similar can happen later this year or next year. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 16, 2024, 08:38:24 AM
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It currently costs 8 BTC to buy a property in Portugal to get a golden retirement visa.
This is a big change from last year at about 25 BTC for a large part of the year.
Once it costs around 0.5 BTC I'm off and going to enjoy better year round weather.
#LifeGoals
Edit: terrible maths...
Yes but please note that real estate investment in LISBON is not anymore an option to get the Golden visa in Portugal (they removed it last november). Same for NHR tax scheme from 1/1/2024 (except for the current beneficiaries of this tax scheme, valid for 10 years). Those bastards.  For the Golden Visa, i am honestly agree with them. Lisbon is a really small capital. Only 500K people. Already LOT of airbnbs there as it's one of the only capital in Europe you can enjoy to visit almost all around the years, and already lot of Americans, indians, brazilians, russians too (before the war) bought flats in Lisbon by overpaying (at this time) to get the golden visa and pressure the market to higher. Problem is Portugal is still a 'poor' country, minimum salary is around 800€, even with good position you will not get 2/3K+. If you want to get a decent 2BR flat in a central area in Lisbon, you have almost nothing below 2K+ a month. It's currently in Europe the most unbalanced between salary/local standard of living and rent/property price. The decision of removing golden visa to someone that purchase a property in Portugal may have negative impact to their economy because I think inclusion of golden visa policies to someone that has a property in Portugal could be one of the thing that motivate many investors to acquire properties and as such those investors are equally advantage to the enhancement of their economy by paying taxes and creating employment but now that golden visa is not feasible many people may turndown their interest to purchase properties as well as other possible investment. In the other hand, Portugal is still keeping the tax free on any Bitcoin/crypto capital gain if you hold at least 1 year (same in Germany, but not same lifestyle btw Germany and Portugal IMHO).. In Europe it's difficult to find any other Bitcoin friendly country mixed with a good lifestyle/safe/ocean/welcoming. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 15, 2024, 04:38:18 PM
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It currently costs 8 BTC to buy a property in Portugal to get a golden retirement visa.
This is a big change from last year at about 25 BTC for a large part of the year.
Once it costs around 0.5 BTC I'm off and going to enjoy better year round weather.
#LifeGoals
Edit: terrible maths...
Yes but please note that real estate investment in LISBON is not anymore an option to get the Golden visa in Portugal (they removed it last november). Same for NHR tax scheme from 1/1/2024 (except for the current beneficiaries of this tax scheme, valid for 10 years). Those bastards. For the Golden Visa, i am honestly agree with them. Lisbon is a really small capital. Only 500K people. Already LOT of airbnbs there as it's one of the only capital in Europe you can enjoy to visit almost all around the years, and already lot of Americans, indians, brazilians, russians too (before the war) bought flats in Lisbon by overpaying (at this time) to get the golden visa and pressure the market to higher. Problem is Portugal is still a 'poor' country, minimum salary is around 800€, even with good position you will not get 2/3K+. If you want to get a decent 2BR flat in a central area in Lisbon, you have almost nothing below 2K+ a month. It's currently in Europe the most unbalanced between salary/local standard of living and rent/property price. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 15, 2024, 04:32:09 PM
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Pretty sure this is "usual" selling, the momentum has slowed down since $60K/March, around $800m long liquidations in past two days, and now wicked off 20 DMA around $66K, which is basically the first level of real support (and hasn't been testing since late Feb when price bounced off it). Price still looks bullish above $60K, even if there could be concern over a fake-out high at that level, it's too early to tell.
I think sometimes we forget that even in late 2020, after reaching close to ATH, there was still a couple of weeks of consolidation and wicks to the downside (upto -16%, similar to last week), especially when in considerably overbought territory like we were back then and are still in now. Would of been better to see the correction prior to new ATH rather than after, but you get what you're given.
Yup, because only few can imagine another "fake" new ATH like we got november 2021 (+9%) compare to the previous ATH of May 2021. Would be probably the 'biggest' pain and disillusionment for all long term HODLers. Fortunately, this scenario seem to be unluckly, even if i dont like to see these fake/weak new ATH and down then.. Let'see, BTC always full of surprise.  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 15, 2024, 04:18:47 PM
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It currently costs 8 BTC to buy a property in Portugal to get a golden retirement visa.
This is a big change from last year at about 25 BTC for a large part of the year.
Once it costs around 0.5 BTC I'm off and going to enjoy better year round weather.
#LifeGoals
Edit: terrible maths...
Yes but please note that real estate investment in LISBON is not anymore an option to get the Golden visa in Portugal (they removed it last november). Same for NHR tax scheme from 1/1/2024 (except for the current beneficiaries of this tax scheme, valid for 10 years). |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 30, 2023, 08:39:15 PM
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Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?
No I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish. Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history: December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83% September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60% October 2021: ProShares ETF -75% November 2021: VanEck ETF -75% Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario. Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question. It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there. But... December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83% October 2021: ProShares ETF -75% November 2021: VanEck ETF -75% was the Top of the 2 previous bullmarket. So seem to be quite difficult to compare with the current situation. As we are still in bear/side way market since +/- 2 years. It's a fair point. It's the Bakkt scenario I'm more concerned about, that was after a strong bear market relief rally and months of consolidation (that turned into distribution) in the exact same time frame as this bear market. I highly doubt price would fall further than 60%, because as you said this isn't the peak of a bull market, but who's to say there won't be a run to $50K soon because an ETF approval. Overall price increasing on an approval is more or less a given I believe, unless something disastrous happens during that period. Look at what happened when Greyscale won against the SEC, that wasn't even an approval and price spiked up by 5% within an hour based on positive news. I therefore don't really see how an ETF could launch without price first dramatically increasing based on the approval news. So for me the two scenarios go hand in hand. The reason price dumps after a product launch is because the price dramatically increased leading up to it. Globally agree with you, but we can still say, concerning BAKKT timing (september 2019), we had a REAL bear market rally. We went almost back to 14K$ in summer 2019. In comparaison, it's the 'same' if we went to 50K$, but we just did x2 from the bottom to 31K (and in a "below 200WMA scenario" for months, below previous ATH etc.). In 2018-2019, in a 'less' negative price scenario, we did almost x5 (3K to 14K). Bigger correction at this time seem 'normal'. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 30, 2023, 03:09:43 PM
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Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?
No I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish. Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history: December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83% September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60% October 2021: ProShares ETF -75% November 2021: VanEck ETF -75% Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario. Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question. It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there. But... December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83% October 2021: ProShares ETF -75% November 2021: VanEck ETF -75% was the Top of the 2 previous bullmarket. So seem to be quite difficult to compare with the current situation. As we are still in bear/side way market since +/- 2 years. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 20, 2023, 12:20:50 AM
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Lot of WO members still surprised it was finally not « the last time we saw this BTC price » or not the « last bargain ».
I am still confident since I am heavily invested in BTC from early 2015 for LONG term (more longer than another cycle).
However, how ‘early’ BTC investors can be still surprised or naive after all the fact we have since the 2021 ATH cycle ?
- Weak ATH double top
- ‘Only’ x3.5 since 2017 ATH (20->69K).
- NO real rebound / signifiant bear market really on all the down 69->15.5K. Means : down almost 78% from the ATH with a shy x3.5 ATH.
- Went for the first time below the previous ATH (and more than 20% below).
- Staying below for months and below the 200 EMA.
- Some members compare with 2019, but in 2019 we had a real bear market rally till almost 14K (20K->3K->14K). Only thing we did till now it’s ‘only’ x2 from 15.5 to 31K after this straight down 69->15.5K without any substantial reaction. WEAK.
Current facts are BTC had a « weak » bullrun in 2021 (compare to previous ones), but still kept a strong bear market without any ‘impressive’ bear market rally since almost 2 years.
AND we are still +/- 8months away from the halving. And most probably no spot ETF validation before Q1 2024 (if accepted).
And, without enter in the detail, traditional markets, especially NASDAQ100 not smelling good for the next weeks/months.
So from a ‘bearish’ side we still have place and time to get ‘new BTC bargain’ before the end of this year / early 2024.
DCA from now till end the year / halving time should probably be a good risk/reward.
I agree with a lot of what you are saying, except for your seemingly smug "I told you so" tone, as if you really know anything more than anyone else, are you going to try to say that you got the bottom right from last year? $15,479, remember? Or do you want to say the current bottom of $15,479 is not in? It seems that you are not necessarily going that far, but surely if BTC prices end up going down to some amount below our current local correction of $25,601, then you are surely going to want to say I told you so. But how far are you going to call now? Sub $22k? or sub $20k? or some other number? I am not even going to try to enter any bet with you because I have already learned my lesson regarding your weasliness and disingenuineness when it comes to actually putting money on the line, and you seem to either think that a large amount needs to be bet, or you are just using those kinds of large amounts as a way to play the weasel.. .. anyhow.. not a bad post, otherwise... even though there are some of the characterization things that I don't really agree with.. but not really any big deal.. might just be stylistic in terms of attempting to support directional prediction variance that might exist between you and me. Please JJG, we talked more than enough in the past regarding the bet. You can scroll up all our conversation. I wanted to bet for a ‘significative’ amount, not ‘peanuts’. You asked for time but didn’t get back then (and waiting more time help you to see where the market goes..). I don’t have the exact number, but I think you were able to bet than BTC will never go below 16Kish. But stop on it, enough talked about it, and too late now. Useless. Regarding my last post, I didn’t say I know more than everybody, I just exposed facts since 2 years and you seem globally agree. We can be right, we can be wrong but according to these facts, any ‘early’ BTC investor/believer cannot be really surprise IMHO. Based on the BTC history + timing + oversold and FTX collapse, I would say there is High chance than the bottom is in. But to know if we will DEFINITELY bounce from 25Kish or if we will visit again 20/22K or even 16/18K for some (quick) moments, ofc nobody can know. Large target could be between 16 and 30K for some more months. That’s why DCA from there can be a good balance risk/reward till the REAL up. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 19, 2023, 09:11:52 PM
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Lot of WO members still surprised it was finally not « the last time we saw this BTC price » or not the « last bargain ».
I am still confident since I am heavily invested in BTC from early 2015 for LONG term (more longer than another cycle).
However, how ‘early’ BTC investors can be still surprised or naive after all the fact we have since the 2021 ATH cycle ?
- Weak ATH double top
- ‘Only’ x3.5 since 2017 ATH (20->69K).
- NO real rebound / signifiant bear market really on all the down 69->15.5K. Means : down almost 78% from the ATH with a shy x3.5 ATH.
- Went for the first time below the previous ATH (and more than 20% below).
- Staying below for months and below the 200 EMA.
- Some members compare with 2019, but in 2019 we had a real bear market rally till almost 14K (20K->3K->14K). Only thing we did till now it’s ‘only’ x2 from 15.5 to 31K after this straight down 69->15.5K without any substantial reaction. WEAK.
Current facts are BTC had a « weak » bullrun in 2021 (compare to previous ones), but still kept a strong bear market without any ‘impressive’ bear market rally since almost 2 years.
AND we are still +/- 8months away from the halving. And most probably no spot ETF validation before Q1 2024 (if accepted).
And, without enter in the detail, traditional markets, especially NASDAQ100 not smelling good for the next weeks/months.
So from a ‘bearish’ side we still have place and time to get ‘new BTC bargain’ before the end of this year / early 2024.
DCA from now till end the year / halving time should probably be a good risk/reward.
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 30, 2023, 07:34:03 PM
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Yes since 2023, it's now taxed in Portugal if you hold for less than 1 year (until 2022 was tax free, even less than 1 year).
Exactly, it's similar as Germany. However Portugal has one more huge advantage : NHR (non habitual resident) tax-scheme. You get this statut for 10years you are tax free on your foreign income (dividends, interests, royalties). Kind of temporary "territorial tax scheme".
Until 2022 private foreign pensions (for retired people) was tax free too under this scheme. Now it's taxed 10% due to other EU countries pressure (for the new applicants).
Just think about how many BTC that you might have had if you had been stacking in the last year gallianooo - rather than wishing for the BTC price to drop below $10k? What could have had been? What could have had been? And also, I saved you from losing even more BTC by refusing to enter into your dumbass supposed bet for the quantity of BTC that you had suggested that you wanted.. even if we might presume that you were actually serious / genuine about entering into a bet rather than just trolling and talking nonsense. but hey maybe you do happen to know about taxes in Portugal in regards to an asset that you don't really have much of any.. (relatively speaking).  Sucks to be uie-pooie, no? ONLY thing you have jayjay is BIG mouth and monologue BLABLA. As usual. A) I bought my "long term bag" of BTC early 2015. Around 220/230$. Never sold any before 50K$. My "long term bag" of ETH was bought just below 1$ end of 2015. So don't worry for me idiot. I am not sure we are talking about the same amount. B) You wanted to bet with me, you can scroll for the beginning, and when i was serious on it (to bet at least 1BTC not your daily peanuts), you just run away like a virgin 12yo girl. That's the fact. And you would lose this bet. C) For your information I bought again BTC between 19/20K$, but yes, I didnt buy the dip at 15.5/16K$ because I put more chance than you we can go below (12-14K at this time). But at the end, for the global, it doesn't make a huge difference on my portfolio. So move on. Bisous bisous |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 30, 2023, 01:17:43 AM
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Yes since 2023, it's now taxed in Portugal if you hold for less than 1 year (until 2022 was tax free, even less than 1 year).
Exactly, it's similar as Germany. However Portugal has one more huge advantage : NHR (non habitual resident) tax-scheme. You get this statut for 10years you are tax free on your foreign income (dividends, interests, royalties). Kind of temporary "territorial tax scheme".
Until 2022 private foreign pensions (for retired people) was tax free too under this scheme. Now it's taxed 10% due to other EU countries pressure (for the new applicants).
NHR-Portugal has provided extensive benefits to residents. As of 2009, the "habitual residency" of Portugal residents is a administrative and financial system designed to attract foreigners. Tax efficient pension income for 10 consecutive years benefiting new hopefuls in Portugal. Two categories can benefit from the NHR-regime: # Retirees who receive pension from abroad. # Individuals and investor who can Structure Their affiair to Sync with the Regime.. Details: https://www.libertyrealestate.pt/detail/nhrnonhabitualresidenceresidenceinportugalresidencyinportugal/12264?gclid=Cj0KCQjw1_SkBhDwARIsANbGpFvZr0Q2bAALvlG2wgb6ja8mcNdZDQgp9ozQlfuf7-UHBH3n03gmL7gaAvOnEALw_wcBMainly depending on these two categories (NHR) the organization works and it can work with great benefits and tax free. Portugal is interesting, apart from that 10% tax for pensions (and I assume, social security payments for US citizens). Not too hot of a situation, considering that i would still have to pay 12-whatever % to Uncle Sam. Basically, a double taxation, unless i fundamentally misunderstood the conditions. The only advantage i can see is no tax on crypto locally if held more than a year, albeit US tax would still apply. The only benefit is easy travel within Europe as everything is closer, in comparison with transatlantic flights. Yes i don't know all the specificities as US citizen (as in US you are even taxed based on your citizenship), so maybe not advantageous as for EU citizen or some other countries. I am personally under this tax scheme. Just a quick story. I met a US guy in Lisbon month ago (from SF). He is based now in Portugal trough investment (golden visa = 500K minimum to invest in real estate), and you can get the Portuguese passport in 5 years after your investment. Now it's not possible anymore to invest in Lisbon for the golden visa, you have to choose another place/city in Portugal to apply. Can be interesting as a global citizen strategy with 2/3 passports and the possibility (at a certain point / depend the own situation) to cancel the US citizenship. (my 2cts, for this topic). |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 29, 2023, 11:53:04 PM
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Yes since 2023, it's now taxed in Portugal if you hold for less than 1 year (until 2022 was tax free, even less than 1 year).
Exactly, it's similar as Germany. However Portugal has one more huge advantage : NHR (non habitual resident) tax-scheme. You get this statut for 10years you are tax free on your foreign income (dividends, interests, royalties). Kind of temporary "territorial tax scheme".
Until 2022 private foreign pensions (for retired people) was tax free too under this scheme. Now it's taxed 10% due to other EU countries pressure (for the new applicants).
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 15, 2022, 07:25:25 PM
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Nice graph, but, imho, TA would be of less value in the next period.
Volatility in the markets is increasing (and rightfully so). Three mo ago DXY was at 114, now at around 104, indices are going up and down 600-800 points a day in a random fashion.
My feel is that macro is driving prices now: there are larger factors involved in comparison with our usual dynamics.
My feel is that in the next 12-18 mo the price of bitcoin will be completely random inasmuch as a fluctuation between 15 (hopefully, not below) and 50K.
Agree with you. And it's not super "new". Macro drives almost everything since a while. Hope BTC will be decorrelated one day, but probably not for now or in a near future. Macro + till the majority of people will keep to use/consider Bitcoin as a speculative asset, instead of an alternative monetary system, it will stay like this. We need much more time. But we can still make new ATHs during this transition. Hopefully. |
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