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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 22, 2022, 02:24:08 PM
Yall think we can break 20k again today ? after the "somewhat" bullish interest hikes report ?
I don't think it's happening today even though the current Bitcoin price isn't that far from $20K, but so far it's still not at $20K and I don't think about what you're saying because for $20K the price on Bitcoin is something that has been seen very often in today's market conditions. So it's better to think of something else than to think of a price of $20K which is definitely not going to be difficult for Bitcoin to hit within this month.

If 20k was the bottom then the price of BTC would have already gone up by now. History says BTC never stayed to its bottom for a week. It bounces back very quickly from its bottom. Also visiting multiple times under 20k and staying there for such a long time indicate that investors are not ready to buy BTC at these levels. Probably they are waiting for more down.

I'm also not sure if we bottomed yet.. But your explanation is wrong.

Look at the end of 2018 BTC chart. BTC was staying at the 3K level (bottomed) for 3 months (december 2018 till march 2019).

2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 13, 2022, 02:07:11 PM
Nothing to see here.

BTC dropped just before Nasdaq100 opening (NASDAQ100 Futures premarket drop hits 3%. And currently -3.57%).

Do not look any further.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 26, 2022, 09:48:59 PM
Hmm I don't like that but the chart looks so bearish, without any good sign.

We really never never bounced  from the  "fake"  69K$ ATH.. Even at 20K, almost no reaction since june.. Kind of crazy, and still doesn't look in a good way.

Macro + all FED bullshits.. hm..hm... What next?

#Hodl.

4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2022, 03:10:35 PM
Quote


In reality, the same can be said for the drop from $20K to $6K (-70%) which also took 6 months to occur, even though price has now corrected nearly -75%, but this is all besides the point I find.


I am agree on almost all your analysis points.  

Just not with the timing of the 20K drop to 6K. Basically we saw 6k$ already beginning of February 2018, so less than 2months after the 2017 ATH, not 6months.

5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2022, 01:07:17 PM
Is it WAR Observer or Wall Observer here ?
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 27, 2022, 06:04:06 PM
*FED RAISES MAIN POLICY RATE 75 BPS IN UNANIMOUS VOTE (twitter. ZeroHedge).
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 06, 2022, 03:23:37 PM
I'll have one of those 449% up months please



Remember between April and June 2019 we got 330% (from $4,200 to $13,880)..



4.2K till 13.8K is only +230% not +330%  Roll Eyes


My calculator says that $13,880 is 330% higher than $4,200 and my long form math says the same thing.

Of course, if you are skimming off profits, and wanting to talk about profits that's another story.

We were not talking about profits, as far as I recall.  We were talking about price rises, and accordingly, as far as I remember we were talking about how much higher $13,880 is from $4,200  - or at least that is what I was describing... and if I wanted to talk about 230% higher than $4,200 that would have lead me to $9,660.  so "technically," what number you use depends upon the topic of the conversation, no?




My bad. English language, i didnt pay attention. I thought I read that you were talking about an increase of +330%, not X330% (13.8k is 330% higher than 4.2).  Roll Eyes
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2022, 11:52:31 PM
I'll have one of those 449% up months please



Remember between April and June 2019 we got 330% (from $4,200 to $13,880)..



4.2K till 13.8K is only +230% not +330%  Roll Eyes
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2022, 12:09:40 PM
lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.
This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K.


Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3.

yes, but (14/3.1)X 17.6 would be 79.5, an ATH, while in 2019 we went to roughly 70% of prior ATH.
70% of 67566 is 47.3K, a very possible number that already figured multiple times in prior discussions.
I just don't want to talk about it as a high probability target mid term. If we get there, it would be awesome, sure.

So 69k -> 17.6K -> 47K -> final bottom 9/10K -> new ATH 140K ?  Roll Eyes Grin
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2022, 12:06:09 AM
lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.
This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K.


Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 12:28:11 PM
Question for everybody in the WO.

If today, you get 1Million$ fresh fiat, available to invest in totally in this market.


What would be your strategy ? Short-long term.. Level/target.. Pourcentage.. Diversification (i mean not only "all in" on btc)..




12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 12:07:20 AM
LOL, nice last M15 candle to close the month at 20K$ (19,942$)  Roll Eyes

Still almost 10% less than the 200WMA monthly (22K$).

Next month(s) are critical ?  Roll Eyes Grin
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 02:18:02 PM
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course.  

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)


Hypothetical....


So 1K BTC = BTC ded.... how about 3k? a la Covaids black swan retest?

Hypothetical.... Russia depletes their cruise missiles, and escalates to tactical nukes... sending Europe and NATO n US into a frenzy, markets react, based on speculation of what could come next..... or merely on the "normalisation" of the use of tactical nukes (they are the lower yield nukes, as opposed to strategic)

Markets react..... where does that black swan take BTC price?

orrrrrrrr even worse... tactical nukes deployed by Russia, and met in kind by "entity x" where does that black swan lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr , no, I wont even speculate or ask about strategic nukes, or atomic ....does not bare thinking about...


How about Gina make a yuge move on Taiwan , where does that lead BTC?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about we finally break the "omicron variant" and there is a new variant "Pi"?
and this one is vaccine resistant and does something else new, say, it effects children (remember these are hypotheticals) ..... lockdowns come back with a vengeance,  the worst yet, supply chains totally shit the bed, new "super" vaccine mandates passed in most nations (and do not work) etc.... where does that lead BTC price?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr come October, its a cold winter in Europe, the recession has kicked up several notches, energy prices triple, inflation soars, interest rates increased by several 1% jumps,  and it
still has not dampened inflation....  fuel has tripled, food inflation has gone another 20-30%, economy retracts hard, like never seen before... this whole thing makes earlier lockdowns, and related issues pale in comparison ...   Klaus is right and global anger reaches peak levels, and there is mass civil unrest, martial law in western nations ...

Where does that leave BTC ?


Orrrrrrrrrrrrrr how about a combination of ALL OF THE ABOVE  ? the whole shebang, Ukraine, Russia, tactical nukes fly, food, fuel, gas shortages, new variant, deaths, lockdown supermax, supply chain grinds to halt, civil unrest, China makes its move.....

Where does that leave BTC price?


Hypotheticals of course  ......


Whaddya think ?


(I am available for parties and weddings) 


#STOPTROLLING.

covid crash = approximately a double bottom of the previous bear market cycle, so what's the link?

If combinaison of everything, BTC will probably be the least of our worries.

Maybe you are not agree with me, you see probably the bottom in already ? But doesn't smell this according to all the points i mentioned above.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 01:40:29 PM
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course. 

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 01:18:04 PM
I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 17, 2022, 12:29:34 AM
When parity BTC price VS Wall Observer page ?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 01:22:44 PM
Somebody after Saylor's coins?
$21k and he's said to be liquidated...



No... 20/21K is just the first call margin.. they can handle much less than 20K$...

Then 3K$ IDK..
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2022, 01:49:57 PM
I don't like to say this, but we need to admit that there is no volume since months and months to put the price up. That's a fact.

We are coming slowly (or quickly) to the low 30Ks... I wouldn't be surprised now to go lower and see a real capitulation (maybe it's what we need to see before starting a real bull cycle).

20K means -70% from the TOP. Would be quite ugly, but in % it's definitely still coherent.

Patience, Hodl, and buy lower if you can.

19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 26, 2022, 03:57:12 PM
Never ending boring.

HODL.

20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2022, 12:05:28 AM
Bitcoin and Models
I have created 3 models using Power Law and DPC Model whose data was provided to me by @DeFi_initiate.

This below chart contains the prediction of all these models (2021-2026):
1. Power Law
2. DPC Model
3. AVGPD - Average of Power Law and DPC Model
4. AVGD2 - Average of DPC Model and AVGPD
5. AVGALL - Average of Power Law, DPC Model, AVGPD and AVGD2.

Lowest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:
Power Law: $35,099
DPC: $18,334
AVGPD: $33,123
AVGD2: $25,944
AVGALL: $31,382

Highest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:
Power Law: $217,776
DPC: $389,245
AVGPD: $267,594
AVGD2: $328,420
AVGALL: $282,801



These models seem like bullshit for me. If we really got the TOP in November 2021 for this 4years cycle (so only X3.5 of the 2017 ATH), why we should make more (X5 X6) as written in your models on the next one?

Look like just another casino game prediction.



Not necessarily. If 69K is/was THE top, it is still more than 20X from the bottom (X22.25 for accuracy).
Therefore, if the bottom was (or would be in case of a double bottom) 29K (roughly), then even a half of prior rise (from the bottom) is 11.1X or $321K

TL;DR It's possible if you count from the bottom, not from the top.

Got it, but from my opinion not relevant. Seems logical to dip less (prorata) if we don't top so high (only x3.5 2017 -> 2021). Can be a possibility to have less volatility (not going to -80/-85% dip from the top), but at the same time no x10 / x20 from previous ATH to the new one. Big range. Boring. Less Blood. Less Lambo.

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