By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.
We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet? something like $14k. Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months? I might be willing to take the other side of that bet. We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.
You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$. Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ? I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ? |
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He's back
I have an Idea lets give chart buddy off the the entire month of October
I am tired of looking at him time and time again.
Back to where to put some money.
Wife and I purchased 10k worth of I bonds this year we got 9.62% for them.
We can buy 10k more this year. New I bond Number comes out on Oct 1.
If we go to 10% we are getting 10k more. giving us 10k at 9.62% and 10k at 10% +
I will buy more miners from bitmain.
I see High rates until April 1 2023
5% is in reach.
Now if they only do .25 next jump we will rally in BTC If they do .75 again we tank.
We are in the 3.00-3.25 range right now and a jump to 3.75-4.00 will really push stock and BTC numbers down.
A lot will be riding on next number come Nov 1-2 interestingly Election Day is right after that number Nov 8th
You know a lot of people do gain with a .75% hike.
Fed salaries will go up
Fed pensions will go up
SSN will go up
Also I bonds will go up
and Fed bond holders will gain
Now bonds fed bonds are boring as fuck. but they have been beaten down for a long time.
So I ask you do we stay here or go up ?
I say up and until at least April 1 2023
Interesting topic and arguments. However before talking of 0.75 more for november (would be quite to very bearish), let's wait for the next CPI first. Same for the 5% target before the FED pivot. 5% is on the table ofc but seem as well on the quite to very bearish scenario. Many things can happen between. However, as I argued on my precedent posts, if we go on that way/level we can go much MORE down on BTC price, and 10K$ would be less and less a fantasy possibility.. within few months maximum. I would say maximum during Q1 2023 for the last FED rates increase Strong time, Strong Hodl, Strong money tomorrow. |
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I did much more well with ETH (i am holder since 2015 too), so it compensates regarding the global multiples done.
No wonder you are confused.  I'm not confused. You just continue on the same way... You don't like ETH (like many here) and it's not the problem, because we cannot compare BTC with ETH. But the fact is that ETH is not useless on many points. As it's still important to have cash/fiat right now too. And I'm happy to have made so much money by investing on ETH. Nothing is full white or full black. You put maybe too much attribute on BTC and forget everything else. But the life, the assets, investments is not ONLY BTC. And as a wise person, you probably perfectly know it's always better to dedicate your portfolio in many different ways (Bitcoin, some "shitcoins" as everything else is shit for you, stocks, real estate, different currencies etc.. in different banks and differents continents). As a optimized globalisation, to try to have a balance on the global risks. Then you allow the % according your feeling and the risks you want to take ; it's another topic for the repartition. |
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I already told you, I started to buy BTC early 2015 at the 200$ish, never sold any BTC before 50K.
Gallianooo, you are amazingly able to withhold btc from your first purchase. Have you never seen the percentage advantage of profit from your investment. so I mean are you going to let go of the btc you have when the btc reaches the value of $100k or $300k. I am amazed by your stance  I totally failed my cash-out optimization on BTC in 2017 bullrun. So I kept all my BTCs and kept in my mind a conservative target of 50K$ for the next bullrun for starting to sell (20% at 50K$).Then I put order every 10K$ (58Kis 68kis .. till 98K. So around 75/80% of my BTC sold if we reached this 100K level) Then "bonus" (125 / 150 / 175 / 200 / 250..). And starting to buy back for 40/50% of the total cash-out from 70% down from the top by DCA level. So my plan failed again in part in 2021, but I still cashed out at the good price level.. so it's still ok. I did much more well with ETH (i am holder since 2015 too), so it compensates regarding the global multiples done. |
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You are looney to be attempting to pre-empt me by trying to act as if you know what I am going to say and then attribute some kind of bullshit lame strawman argument to me, when I have not been saying anything even close to that.
Just because you get so excited in your desires to puke up lame bear arguments - should not amount to my making overly bullish (hopium-based) arguments, because even if you may well be more bearish inclined (and possibly more "realistic") than me, that still does not even come close to suggesting that I would have been making any kinds of arguments to suggest that we have had much if any bounce since we hit $17,593 in mid-June. It's what you said weeks ago regarding this 25K bounce. I am just saying we have not the same definition of "bounce" when you unscroll the chart from the 69K .. there is no convinced bounce at all since. Whoaza!!!! You are waiting until $15k and lower to start buying? Horey sheit!!!!
Hopefully, you have not neglected in pee paring ur lil selfie for UPpity too? I already told you, I started to buy BTC early 2015 at the 200$ish, never sold any BTC before 50K. I started to buy again when we hit again 20K$ in june. And I was very surprised, like most of us I think, to see no reaction on BTC, no bounce, nothing. So yep, I put new order to accumulate many more BTC from 15Kish, every 1K down, same order (double order size from the 10K and less). What odds are we giving such $10k or below? You realize that the level of our preparation should be apportioned to the level of odds that we are giving to such scenarios.. and so that preparation should be both financial and psychological... and how high we going to go with such preparations? Sounds like you are giving such scenarios pretty high odds, especially since you found it to be so important to elaborate on such ideas that you consider to be reasonably within the realm of possibilities. I don't know the probability to go under 10K$, probably not 50% but more than 10% IMO. . Another wow.. you are saying that you consider 90%-ish odds that the bottom is not in.. so maybe you are even inclined to short since you are so confident.. and maybe you would like to place some kind of a wager on your odds.. i am probably around 50/50 for breaking below $17,593, but if you want to bet on something like $15k being reached, it seems that you are giving something more than 50% on $15k being reached, and that might actually be bettable from my perspective.. and of course working out the terms would not be easy.. because many times guys will spout out similar kinds of nonsense like you and assign stupidly high odds to certain kinds of bearish scenarios that they say, but they will be no where to be found when it comes time to actually placing some kind of value or even to put reputation on the line in regards to making some kind of bet that includes such odds that they have actually assigned to the supposedly soothsayer bearish scenario(s) that they will not back up. If you want to avoid the macro situation, it's your choice. I just said it's look like a utopia to think that BTC will hold at 50%+ probability this bottom if we continue to drop on the stock market indices. I am a BTC Believer but still connected to the reality. |
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If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?
Based on :
- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..
What's happen on BTC ? We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).
It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.
Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.
I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen. Why? Because many factors are in play. If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies. Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates for be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing". This rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho. I didn't say i can predict, I'm just trying to find a direction with impartiality, regarding the actual global situation. It's not only about BTC. I didn't say that the FED can maintain this for long time, but still for some months (and continue to increase the interest rates till 4? 4.5? 5?). Even on the best case of 4, there is still time for another drop. And reasonably, probability are much more higher that BTC will drop much lower if Stocks continue to fall even for "only" 10 or 20%. It's correlated, that's a fact, until now. Here is one possibility..say, October inflation readings are low (due to a large drop in the price of oil). Suddenly, market would switch to a "bullish" 50 points (0.5%) rate hike and bear market would be essentially over. Could it happen? maybe..i give this scenario a 30% chance. Agree we can have a "good" news on that, but it's still not right now.. still some weeks or month to see. And still not a huge probability. And you can still add on it the UA/RU war ; China/taiwan (ok still nothing for now, but who knows?), and potential big mess for energies before winter time... I repeat, it's not what I want to see, but above the FED rates, there are many things around still VERY negative. |
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If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?
Based on :
- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..
What's happen on BTC ? We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).
It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.
Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.
I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen. Why? Because many factors are in play. If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies. Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates for be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing". This rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho. I didn't say i can predict, I'm just trying to find a direction with impartiality, regarding the actual global situation. It's not only about BTC. I didn't say that the FED can maintain this for long time, but still for some months (and continue to increase the interest rates till 4? 4.5? 5?). Even on the best case of 4, there is still time for another drop. And reasonably, probability are much more higher that BTC will drop much lower if Stocks continue to fall even for "only" 10 or 20%. It's correlated, that's a fact, until now. |
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If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?
Based on :
- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..
What's happen on BTC ? We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).
It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.
Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.
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Yall think we can break 20k again today ? after the "somewhat" bullish interest hikes report ?
I don't think it's happening today even though the current Bitcoin price isn't that far from $20K, but so far it's still not at $20K and I don't think about what you're saying because for $20K the price on Bitcoin is something that has been seen very often in today's market conditions. So it's better to think of something else than to think of a price of $20K which is definitely not going to be difficult for Bitcoin to hit within this month. If 20k was the bottom then the price of BTC would have already gone up by now. History says BTC never stayed to its bottom for a week. It bounces back very quickly from its bottom. Also visiting multiple times under 20k and staying there for such a long time indicate that investors are not ready to buy BTC at these levels. Probably they are waiting for more down. I'm also not sure if we bottomed yet.. But your explanation is wrong. Look at the end of 2018 BTC chart. BTC was staying at the 3K level (bottomed) for 3 months (december 2018 till march 2019). |
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Nothing to see here.
BTC dropped just before Nasdaq100 opening (NASDAQ100 Futures premarket drop hits 3%. And currently -3.57%).
Do not look any further.
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Hmm I don't like that but the chart looks so bearish, without any good sign.
We really never never bounced from the "fake" 69K$ ATH.. Even at 20K, almost no reaction since june.. Kind of crazy, and still doesn't look in a good way.
Macro + all FED bullshits.. hm..hm... What next?
#Hodl.
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In reality, the same can be said for the drop from $20K to $6K (-70%) which also took 6 months to occur, even though price has now corrected nearly -75%, but this is all besides the point I find.
I am agree on almost all your analysis points. Just not with the timing of the 20K drop to 6K. Basically we saw 6k$ already beginning of February 2018, so less than 2months after the 2017 ATH, not 6months. |
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Is it WAR Observer or Wall Observer here ?
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*FED RAISES MAIN POLICY RATE 75 BPS IN UNANIMOUS VOTE (twitter. ZeroHedge).
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I'll have one of those 449% up months please
Remember between April and June 2019 we got 330% (from $4,200 to $13,880).. 4.2K till 13.8K is only +230% not +330%  My calculator says that $13,880 is 330% higher than $4,200 and my long form math says the same thing. Of course, if you are skimming off profits, and wanting to talk about profits that's another story. We were not talking about profits, as far as I recall. We were talking about price rises, and accordingly, as far as I remember we were talking about how much higher $13,880 is from $4,200 - or at least that is what I was describing... and if I wanted to talk about 230% higher than $4,200 that would have lead me to $9,660. so "technically," what number you use depends upon the topic of the conversation, no?
My bad. English language, i didnt pay attention. I thought I read that you were talking about an increase of +330%, not X330% (13.8k is 330% higher than 4.2). |
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I'll have one of those 449% up months please
Remember between April and June 2019 we got 330% (from $4,200 to $13,880).. 4.2K till 13.8K is only +230% not +330% |
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lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.
This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K. Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3. yes, but (14/3.1)X 17.6 would be 79.5, an ATH, while in 2019 we went to roughly 70% of prior ATH. 70% of 67566 is 47.3K, a very possible number that already figured multiple times in prior discussions. I just don't want to talk about it as a high probability target mid term. If we get there, it would be awesome, sure. So 69k -> 17.6K -> 47K -> final bottom 9/10K -> new ATH 140K ? |
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lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.
This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K. Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3. |
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Question for everybody in the WO.
If today, you get 1Million$ fresh fiat, available to invest in totally in this market.
What would be your strategy ? Short-long term.. Level/target.. Pourcentage.. Diversification (i mean not only "all in" on btc)..
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LOL, nice last M15 candle to close the month at 20K$ (19,942$) Still almost 10% less than the 200WMA monthly (22K$). Next month(s) are critical ? |
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