My friend sent me this link.
--snip--
I visited the link, but why it ask email address, first name and last name? I probably just being skeptical, but i find it's suspicious when the link should be just about video. But i found this statement from one of his blog post.  What are you saying? That's it's a scam link? Why would he do that? It’s like this: if you think quantum computers able to break 2048-bit cryptography within 3-5 years are a near-certainty, then I’d say your confidence is unwarranted. If you think such quantum computers, once built, will also quickly revolutionize optimization and machine learning and finance and countless other domains beyond quantum simulation and cryptanalysis—then I’d say that more likely than not, an unscrupulous person has lied to you about our current understanding of quantum algorithms.
On the other hand, if you think Bitcoin, and SSL, and all the other protocols based on Shor-breakable cryptography, are almost certainly safe for the next 5 years … then I submit that your confidence is also unwarranted. Your confidence might then be like most physicists’ confidence in 1938 that nuclear weapons were decades away, or like my own confidence in 2015 that an AI able to pass a reasonable Turing Test was decades away. It might merely be the confidence that “this still looks like the work of decades—unless someone were to gather together all the scientific building blocks that have now been demonstrated, and scale them up like a stark raving madman.” The trouble is that sometimes people, y’know, do that.
Beyond that, the question of “how many years?” doesn’t even interest me very much, except insofar as I can mine from it the things I value in life, like scientific understanding, humor, and irony.
Unless i misunderstood his statement, it seems he's also not sure when QC is mature enough to break signature cryptography that still used today. I watched the stream, and he wasn't actually making a Doom's Day projection. He was merely saying that based on the milestones from all of their research being done in Google, he's merely becoming more optimistic that because of the current technological advancements, a working Quantum Computer could be built sooner than expected. I didn't understand some of the more technical parts of the stream, although he tried to make everything ELI-5. |
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[edited out].
If it's truly the early phases of the bear cycle, how high, do you believe, is the probability that Strategy would sell some of their Bitcoin to buy back their own stock? That would probably sort of low, no? Since Bitcoin bear cycles have never been longer than an average of 18 months. Do you believe their 21 month life-line will last them for the whole duration? Plus the pivot to real Q.E. could happen in 2026, which will be good for all markets, legacy AND crypto. You are assuming a lot Wind_FURY if you believe that you got bitcoin's price figured out for the next 18-ish months. We have experienced a 36% price dip since our October 6th ATH - and so that is less than 2 months, yet you are assuming that we are in a bear market which implies that we are not going to experience any more ATHs, but instead additional lows in the next 18-ish months. You might be your own worst enemy in regards to your own bitcoin stash (or lack of a stash) because you seem to be waiting for down that might not end up happening (including that we might have already gotten as much down at $80,537 that we are going to get for this round) and you are also failing/refuse to prepare for up that may well have odds that are around 50% or perhaps even more than 50%.. and even if such odds for up are ONLY in the ballpark of 50%, they likely deserve preparations that are more than 50%, since par tof the reason that any of us should be in bitcoin is to prepare for up within the greatest wealth transfer that man has ever experienced.,., and you are busy fucking around (and presuming) and preparing for down that might not happen.. There's no need to react negatively, or to be annoyed by the question ser. I'm merely curious on what everyone's thoughts/insights/opinions are in the matter. I personally believe that nothing will happen. Chad Saylor will continue to be like Bitcoin, a Honey Badger surviving the bear cycles and prosper during bull cycles. He will continue to keep buying like Bitcoin will continue chugging along producing block after block. |
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I have made bitcoin transactions in the past but it’s easy now to use bitcoin without really knowing about its past or technical terms involved in the matter. Some would say it’s not really important to know about bitcoin’s technicalities and terminology but in order to contribute much efficiently to discussions here in the forum I wanna make sure I stack up with knowledge.
Learning it only for the sake of having knowledge that can help you participate in discussions is another thing, but in general, it's true that a newbie doesn't need to know anything about Bitcoin's technical aspects for them to be able to use it; however, it's important for them to understand how it's used like its wallets, because most people get confused when using wallets like Electrum because the interface is not that modern, and there are terms that a newbie might not understand, so it's important to learn these things, but apart from that, technicalities are just optional. So many people say that learning to use Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies is difficult, but I don't agree with that. As long as someone has the basic knowledge about the internet and know how to use an electronic device such as a mobile or a laptop, they can easily learn how they can use Bitcoin, or use exchanges to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, because the processes are pretty straightforward, and we have user-friendly platforms to get everything done nowadays, so it shouldn't be a problem for anyone. A person may not need to learn the technical aspects of Bitcoin to use it, BUT I personally believe that we plebs should learn them to gain more confidence in HODLing Bitcoin with more conviction. Those people who panic and sell their Bitcoin are perhaps people who doesn't truly understand the value of what they have in their wallets. |
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3. Bitcoin and Bitcoin only is the best, I calculated $3,000 spent on BTC in 2022 @15,000 it's now worth $87,000.
I think that was the main mistake here. You went for altcoins and ignored Bitcoin. The cycles do happen and are real, but you have to take a reliable asset into consideration when analyzing cycles. Altcoins aren't safe to be studied through cycles. They are too unstable and driven by speculation, while Bitcoin has already proved to be more predictable along the cycles. Anyway, now it's already done and there isn't why to complain about it. What matters is that you are still here and still have energy to work your way upside once again. That is what you should focus right now. Use the negative situation you just faced as experience to grow and develop a new mindset, addressing the mistakes you did previosuly, so you can make sure to not repeat them again futurely. As long as you never quit from the forum, there's always chances to correct your mistakes and this time, just stick with bitcoin. He could quit BitcoinTalk, but he could still be OK in his investment journey if he actually sticks with ONLY Bitcoin. Although, there might be some smart shitcoiners, they probably won't share their investments in the forum. The people that actually share, are losers. Read their altcoin suggestions, the date of their posts, then look at the chart.
But I cannot guarantee that you will not experience some mistakes and losses along the way, but this time you could be wiser and smarter when facing them.
However, just want to make clarity, there are still some potential altcoins in the market, maybe you just end up with the wrong altcoins. But if you can completely focus with bitcoin, much better, there'll be bigger profits await for you.
Bitcoin HODLers have outperformed MOST shitcoiners this cycle. Any shitcoiner in BitcoinTalk who suggests you to buy "X" shitcoin probably has very little winning trades from 2022 to 2025. |
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Change of narrative at Strategy. Phong Le, Strategy CEO, detailed when they can sell Bitcoins:
“We can sell Bitcoin, and we would sell Bitcoin if we needed to, to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV…as we look at Bitcoin winter and see our mNAV compressing, my hope is our mNAV doesn’t go below one. But if it did, and we did not have other access to capital, we would sell Bitcoin. But that would almost be a last resort. That would be a last resort.”
So, in case mNAV turns below one, they can sell bitcoin to buy back more bitcoin buying back their own shares. The complete analysis can be found here: Strategy new ‘last resort’ to sell Bitcoin could trigger on 15% dip – sets $1.4B cash reserve contingencyJust remember that with the reserve fund they put in place, they are now safe for at least 21 months. If it's truly the early phases of the bear cycle, how high, do you believe, is the probability that Strategy would sell some of their Bitcoin to buy back their own stock? That would probably sort of low, no? Since Bitcoin bear cycles have never been longer than an average of 18 months. Do you believe their 21 month life-line will last them for the whole duration? Plus the pivot to real Q.E. could happen in 2026, which will be good for all markets, legacy AND crypto. |
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My friend sent me this link. He already told me, as I have already said from a previous post, that Scott Aaronson is a respected researcher in the world of Quantum Computing. I believe this webinar/talk/video stream should give us some answers/insights/thoughts.
Although, I would like gmaxwell's opinion about Scott Aaronson.
You know since people often bring up who luke-jr is in the discussions that relate to him therefore we have to be fair here. Let's take a look at what it says about this person. Unbiased, objective and reputable researcher.  How about you ask a Zionist offspring of Jensen Huang whether real AI is just around the corner? Better sell some of your family members in exchange for some AI hardware.  Will Quantum Computing Kill Bitcoin?
No. Is “Q-day” around the corner?
No. Quantum computing (QC) is often cited as the ultimate threat to cryptography, but how close are we really to a "Q-Day" scenario?
Overblown by several proportions, similar to the AI bullshit just slightly less worse.
There, I answered your panicking and FUD once more. No Zionist Andersen was needed. Laughable. Merely because he doesn't have a religion, or a race, or a belief/philosophy that's the same as yours, you discredit all the work and research he has done with Google? You act like you know more than him. Ser, you're a mere pleb in a signature campaign just like the rest of us. Welcome to my ignore list. |
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Be patient, you are not alone. Many people get the same as you but we have a better chance of getting it back later. It is your lesson and also your mistake so you need to move on and start again. It is no use crying over your mistake and not waking up because time is still ticking and will keep running whether you are there or not.
We may see the number in our portfolio increase but if you don't secure, those numbers can change especially in a bear market. If you want to take your profit, get it immediately and come back after the market is low. At that time, you will have more balance to invest more.
You're right about that. Many people who entered this crypto industry have experienced those kinds of things, not just the OP some may have even experienced worse than him, but that doesn't mean it's the end of our lives. That's really how it is in this crypto business industry field that we're part of. We really need to be prepared for what we're doing when entering this world of cryptocurrency. We should know what limits we can afford to lose if we ever get defeated here, because we expect that its volatility is what becomes our risk here. I am not saying that you're wrong, but it's merely easy to post something like that if losing all of your savings is not happening to you at the current moment. Personally, I lost about 30% of my savings before using that money left to buy the Bitcoin DIP during 2019. During that time of losing it, I truly thought that I might never recover that loss, and that's only 30%. What if someone lost 100%? I believe if the amount was large enough, some people might never recover. Losing 30% of your savings must have been really tough but it’s good that you managed to hold on and even took the opportunity to buy the dip later that decision alone shows that you didn’t let emotions take full control. For people who lose everything though the road to recovery is definitely harder especially if they used money meant for important things like family needs or daily expenses this is why risk management matters more than any other trading skill because once the capital is gone the mental pressure alone can crush motivation completely. That's actually TRUE. That's absolutely why I was telling everyone in Buy the DIP, and HODL topic that if some of them are still YOUNG and SINGLE, then they should use close to 100% of their savings and invest all of that in Bitcoin. Because, - They have less/no responsibilities, therefore less reasons to sell for expenses/needs. - If they made the mistake of buying shitcoins and they lost all of their savings, it would be easier to recover than someone who is married/has kids.
When you say time keeps moving that’s an important reminder it means we can’t stay stuck regretting old mistakes the market won’t wait and neither should we accepting losses as part of the process is the only way to move forward the key is to rebuild slowly this time with smaller positions and stricter discipline. Everyone who’s been in crypto long enough has their story of loss and recovery some bounced back stronger some walked away completely the difference comes down to mindset if you learn from it manage risk better and only invest what you can afford to lose you’ll always have another chance to rise again.
I'm still single, and I have no responsibilities, but a friend taught me that even if you have no responsibilities, you should save at least six months worth of your living expenses, then invest the rest. |
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bruh I think Yeet was releasing cryptic messages about the airdrop happening soon but after this tragic market crash. I dont think that they are going to release it at this current situation.
I have slowly grinding points in the past couple of weeks because the rewards are not worth it.
I'm not actually sure "when" the right time to start their airdrop, BUT it's probably better to airdrop when the market has already finished crashing, no? I believe that would make the YEET.com users hold their airdrop and wait for a surge before selling rather than the surge that's already happening for the users to sell as soon as they receive their airdrop. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
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My friend sent me this link. He already told me, as I have already said from a previous post, that Scott Aaronson is a respected researcher in the world of Quantum Computing. I believe this webinar/talk/video stream should give us some answers/insights/thoughts. Although, I would like gmaxwell's opinion about Scott Aaronson. Will Quantum Computing Kill Bitcoin? Is “Q-day” around the corner? Quantum computing (QC) is often cited as the ultimate threat to cryptography, but how close are we really to a "Q-Day" scenario? We’re putting together two renowned theoretical computer scientists – Scott Aaronson is the leading public authority on QC research and Eli Ben-Sasson is the leading public authority on post-quantum secure ZK. Together, they cut through the hype to discuss the true state of QC research, the timeline for potential breakthroughs, and the potential impact and mitigations for Bitcoin and other blockchains. https://streamyard.com/watch/B4XWkvjqYsn9 |
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Shower thought - What if the market bottom for the next bearish cycle won't be reached until Chad Saylor/Strategy sells some of the Bitcoin from their vault. I'm not trolling, merely a funny thought that came in my mind. Because if it is indeed truly the bear market, then the last sellers during a crash that traces the bottom is an institution, not plebs. 🤔 |
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WHO is this person, who would allow himself to throw away such a large amount of money into a casino?
someone who's addicted and is kinda stupid, but at least he's entertaining, lol.
I'm very curious if that's a mere part of his total capital. Because in that screenshot of him, he doesn't look like a very rich person. 🤔
what capital? he gambled it all away + money he borrowed from a bunch of people, right now he has a min $2 mil debt he has to pay back, and if shufle drops his deal, he will be fucked, because as far as i know from following him, his only source of income is gambling. He also has a Sponge Bob plushie smiling at him in the background. Haha. Shuffle should give him the life-size purple waifu plushie. lol I hope he was playing BlackJack, not casino games. Because how could anyone make gambling in casino games, where no person has an edge, his/her only source of income. It would be understandable if it was a game that could be beaten if the person was truly skilled, like BlackJack, Poker, or probably even Sports-Betting. But casino games? Then he probably deserves to given TEN purple waifu plushies for him to "play" with to "relieve stress". |
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If there is any way to form a team of learners to study and learn together I would be available to get acquainted with all we need to know about Bitcoin even those who are advanced in Bitcoin knowledge can still be there to guide and lectures the beginners and still gain more knowledge too.. contact me if there is learning teams already in existence
BitcoinTalk is already a good place to start learning Bitcoin together with other people. In fact, the older users need the insights of newer users because the newer users might have a newer/different perspective about Bitcoin that could bring everyone towards a better understanding of the network.  Although, you should be careful with some people in this forum. Some of them either spread disinformation, or actually have the wrong perspective. |
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I found a book called Mastering Bitcoin by Andreas M. Antonopolous released in 2014. It seems to have all the complete information a beginner one must need in order to really understand bitcoin. I’m planning on making this thread kind of a reaction thread to the 240 something page of this book. If anyone has more recommendations or better suggestions for books one can read regarding bitcoin, I am open to it. I invite some beginners to also join me in this journey.  edit: removed the file as to not violate the licensing of the book These are not books, but they're also good to prepare you, or any beginner/newbie, on your Bitcoin journey. I suggest reading the basic Bitcoin Developer Guides in, https://developer.bitcoin.org/devguide/index.htmlThen for more advanced questions, go to Bitcoin Stack Exchange, https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/Plus there will be recommendations of books about Bitcoin and its Economic and Political side. I suggest avoiding them, and you should focus on the technical basics/fundamentals. |
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i just came here to check if you have posted about it or not, lol, we are too invested following his downfall.  he is $183k away from $4mil in losses, and it's only for the last 90 days, we know he fucked, he knows he is fucked, just look at his face... i should not be laughing at this, but i can't help it, lol. and i bet his solution to this will be to get more loans to try to win it all back. "SHUFFLE BEST CUSTOMER" WHO is this person, who would allow himself to throw away such a large amount of money into a casino? 👀 I'm very curious if that's a mere part of his total capital. Because in that screenshot of him, he doesn't look like a very rich person. 🤔 He also has a Sponge Bob plushie smiling at him in the background. Haha. Shuffle should give him the life-size purple waifu plushie. |
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But Strategy doesn't have its Bitcoin held as collateral, and from what I have been reading, there are no price-based margin calls for them? That means they don't need to sell any Bitcoin, no?
They don't need to sell Bitcoin, they don't have a price below which they would have a margin call, but that's not the main issue right now. The main issue, as I was explaining, is whether the business model is sustainable. If the price of Bitcoin continues to grow at an annual average above the S&P 500, it will be, but below that, it won't, and this year both the price of Bitcoin and MSTR are well below the index. OK, that's a more practical debate, which you may be right. They could sell if, during the next cycle, the whatever arbitrage trade between MSTR and Bitcoin that they're currently doing isn't profitable long term. BUT it's all hypothetical and theories right now. Currently, everything is telling us that Chad Saylor WON'T SELL. But I posted in this topic before about another theory. What if there's an entity that wants Strategy to crash, so that entity, could bail Strategy out and get control of the company, and therefore get control of the Bitcoin in their vaults. |
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Laughable.
Everyone could make a debate/have an opinion that Bitcoin is "relatively safe" or "hacks and these sorts of things" have happened in Bitcoin before so "it's OK", or pretend that the Quantum Threat is not a real issue.
But I will tell you, that as long as Bitcoin is NOT Quantum Resistant, THEN investor-confidence in it as a Store Of Value and user-confidence for it as a Medium Of Exchange will go down.
Nonsense, stop writing FUD bullshit -- this is not any better than the spam FUD that you are vehemently against. These kind of generalized statements and exaggerations of quantum threats are useless. Read the details of a discussion and participate on an according level. If you can't, then it is better to shut up instead. Recently you have been on a FUD campaign, whether it is about block rewards or quantum computers -- the pattern is clear. The real risk of quantum computers is very low.
If you had understood anything that is being written you would be disposing merits on these posts, instead it is evident that your signature campaign is the reason to write yet another useless post that has no substance of any kind.  It is not an existential threat and they are not the only coins that will remain vulnerable. Some people will fail to upgrade to addresses that don't have their public keys exposed over time. This is inevitable. These are the possibilities:
1) Freeze temporarily or permanently (they can't be moved under any conditions).
2) Confiscate (reintroduce back into supply for some reason, say mining schedule).
3) Leave them as they are and let them get taken and reintroduced into the market.
The trade off is not worth it.
Back to the basics. Coins get hacked all the time, it has no impact on the function of store of value.  A one-time large hack does not have an impact on monetary functions, not that there is a high likelihood that it would happen to begin with. We've been down this road before in many topics, but Wind_FURY like many signature spammers does not read previous posts in a thread. These things have been addressed in detail and nuance by many different individuals across many threads. What's "FUD bullshit"? I'm talking about a perceived threat, which I admit, may not or may not be true. But as long as it's there, and if there are not any assurances made that the threat isn't eliminated, then truly the confidence in that which is threatened will go down. Or do you actually disagree that Bitcoin should be Quantum Resistant? You don't believe that Quantum Computers that could break SHA-256 are coming? |
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Even if Bitcoin falls below $15K they can still finance their debt
Yes, they can do that, but they would need to sell their bitcoin. That would cause them a big loss, not in the economic form, but as the credibility of perma-hodler of bitcoins. Not to mention despite not being a core again, they are into data analysis and AI
We both know the cashflows from the residual industrial part of Strategy are not sufficient to keep them buying bitcoin. But Strategy doesn't have its Bitcoin held as collateral, and from what I have been reading, there are no price-based margin calls for them? That means they don't need to sell any Bitcoin, no? Plus isn't their long term debt currently $8.2 Billion with a 0.42% average interest? That's a payable of around $34,000,000/year, which Strategy will pay from their revenue from their SaaS earnings. I believe it has revenue of $500,000,000/year? |
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At least bitcoin crashes honestly.
Bitcoin " breathes": inhale (growth), exhale (fall), and each breath gets deeper. ? "Breathes"? But what from the market that it "breathes"? What does it "inhale", and what does it "exhale", and where does that thing that it "inhales" and "exhales" come from, and how is it possible that it can deep breathe deeper unless there's more to "inhale"? |
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There probably were more "tipster" services during the early days of gambling through the internet because people were more naive to believe that those "tipsters" were selling a profitable service.
That probably also includes BitcoinTalk during the early days of gambling with Bitcoin.
What I notice now that those tipster services is slowly gone and I rarely see someone offering this kind of service now. Unlike way back year 2017 - 2018 on which online gambling is kinda new in the scene there are several scammers take advantage on the innocence of people trying to fool them by offering high win rate paid tips on sports betting sites. Many got fooled at that time as I can see that they have lots of members in their community. Usually I see this happening in telegram but now I think those scammers know that they can't fool people anymore and maybe they shift their strategy to seek for new victims. 👍 Are those "tipsters" still posting/active here in BitcoinTalk? It would be laughable to see them pretend like they didn't promote an unprofitable service, and continue posting in the forum like nothing happened. So far didn't see any new posting that kind of service here, it seems that majority of those fraudulent dudes know that Bitcointalk is not best to do their scamming because lots of people will interject their scamming attempts. And its good since we could make this forum clean from those guys and what we can read are legitimate discussions towards gambling also better way to place their bets. 👍 Although it creates a toxic environment in BitcoinTalk, which could discourage legitimate services, it's probably better if the toxic behavior stops the bad actors from posting their scams in the forum.
Also I don't really think that there are people here in forum especially those veterans would believe on tipster service because this is well known scam since most of them offer false promises to win consistently.
I believe I saw some old "tipster" topics in BitcoinTalk, made by those older accounts/users. But they were not doing it to get paid for the "tipster service". They were probably doing it for mere attention. |
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Be patient, you are not alone. Many people get the same as you but we have a better chance of getting it back later. It is your lesson and also your mistake so you need to move on and start again. It is no use crying over your mistake and not waking up because time is still ticking and will keep running whether you are there or not.
We may see the number in our portfolio increase but if you don't secure, those numbers can change especially in a bear market. If you want to take your profit, get it immediately and come back after the market is low. At that time, you will have more balance to invest more.
You're right about that. Many people who entered this crypto industry have experienced those kinds of things, not just the OP some may have even experienced worse than him, but that doesn't mean it's the end of our lives. That's really how it is in this crypto business industry field that we're part of. We really need to be prepared for what we're doing when entering this world of cryptocurrency. We should know what limits we can afford to lose if we ever get defeated here, because we expect that its volatility is what becomes our risk here. I am not saying that you're wrong, but it's merely easy to post something like that if losing all of your savings is not happening to you at the current moment. Personally, I lost about 30% of my savings before using that money left to buy the Bitcoin DIP during 2019. During that time of losing it, I truly thought that I might never recover that loss, and that's only 30%. What if someone lost 100%? I believe if the amount was large enough, some people might never recover. |
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