Bitcoin Forum
May 14, 2024, 01:07:21 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: [1]
1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2016, 07:26:24 PM
Seeing that something similar is happening in brazil is interesting. Their inflation rate has been climbing over the years and is about 9% right now. Not yet a real target for bitcoin, but it will come in time if things move forward as they do. And they usually do when it comes to inflation.
Hopefully Bitcoin will be ready by then.

Any other targets we should know of?
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2016, 06:33:24 PM
Also, we are lacking the lightning network. So probably this won't be it. I don't know any real detail about the concept, but it seems to result in super much super fast transactions. Without that everyday use is not feasible. If we get that before Venezuela goes down for good, we might see a significant part of the economy migrate and some unforseen unforseeable but definitely good effects on the market.

If that thing actually gets implemented, it is just a matter of time before the first economy falls into bitcoin. It will be more convenient than dollar. Venezuela, in any case, is a proof of concept. Bitcoin is just not fully ready for it, very soon it will be though.
And there will be no altcoin which will impose the same respect and trust the network hashrate and conservative bitcoin community imposes. For now at least. If Segwit gets implemented via softfork and everything goes well, the lightning network should be able to be implemented without any further fork. I don't see why it wouldn't be implemented in real use cases. You just need a wallet-app supporting lightning network and everything is fine.

The future is bright, gentlemen
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2016, 06:09:46 PM
-snip-

I agree with everything you say, but I think you underestimate black market channels. USD were valued trice over their official exchange rate in 2008. I got that from an old news article, so maybe its not correct, but at least it shows an effect. Now bitcoin is a lot easier to smuggle into the country than large amounts of dollars. So for a potential "criminal" there is a lot to gain with minimal risk. A suitcase full of money is a lot more visible than a bitcoin wallet.

You can see the threat that bitcoin is building here
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/report-two-venezuelans-arrested-mining-bitcoin/

It hit miners, but those are a lot more visible and going for that reasoning to arrest little people who have just a small amount wouldn't work. In any case their intelligence agency is already hunting people who use bitcoin.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2016, 05:53:39 PM
Now think again on what is happening. It's just too sad that the lightning network isn't here already. If it had been, venezuelas economy would bleed off into bitcoin in no time. At least a part.

It wouldn't, because people don't have tons of USD to spend buying bitcoins.

Almost no volume, but you can buy/sell BTC for local funny money: https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/VEF, and interest seems to be on the rise (the chart is denominated in Bolivars, you can click top right to change to BTC).

It's interesting to see, though the volume is only about 33k usd per week right now. Not much, but most likely a lot of these coins will not be sold in the short term. And this is definitely not the only channel where bitcoin flows into the country.
It's nice to see some hard numbers though.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2016, 05:42:01 PM
Now think again on what is happening. It's just too sad that the lightning network isn't here already. If it had been, venezuelas economy would bleed off into bitcoin in no time. At least a part.

It wouldn't, because people don't have tons of USD to spend buying bitcoins.

Nevertheless it creates an interest. And I didn't say the whole economy moves over. It doesn't have to anyway. 10% Gross domestic product. 443B Dollar. There is value being created and circulating. You can offer services for bitcoin. I assume a lot of dudes there doing online business and any form of self directed creative work already do. Other people have commodities. And a currency with currently almost 500% inflation rate per year (the figures in the original post only go to dec 2015) doesn't cut it for almost anything. It's getting significantly less valuable if you don't spend it directly. Even bitcoins worst drop from 1200 to 200 is only as bad as that inflation rate. And now it is worth more again. So, whomever can get their hands on bitcoins down there will do so.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2016, 05:21:52 PM
So, everyone is speculating on what is going on. Where the price comes from.
And with all the stuff mentioned here, I have never seen this info coming together. You want to buy a rumor? Buy into this:

Venezuelas inflation rate
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/inflation-cpi

Venezuelas interest in bitcoin
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&geo=VE

This, while retaining a search volume index of 27.

China on the other hand has a search volume index of 8, while moving on a similar interest level like the one during the 2013 rise.

Now think again on what is happening. It's just too sad that the lightning network isn't here already. If it had been, venezuelas economy would bleed off into bitcoin in no time. At least a part.

https://www.google.de/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=JYBlV9zaLoGq-wb896GwDA#q=venezuela+gross+domestic+product
443 Billion gross domestic product. If only ten percent of that move into bitcoin, the price will quadruple at least.

So, if that thing is actually implemented and working this summer, Bitcoin will be able to do what it was meant to do. It will be a form of reserve currency and black market money. With the difference, that it is a lot more convenient than the usual suspects gold and cigarettes or whatever.
And if it will not be this moment, another will come and by then the transaction problems will be solved. Longterm bitcoin outlook: phenomal as always.
Venezuela just proofs the whole idea. Now that people know of it, the takeover can start as soon as an economy starts to collapse.
Pages: [1]
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!