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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2026, 01:26:56 AM
https://x.com/danrobinson/status/2050229833146532109
Quote
Millions of BTC could be vulnerable to quantum computers
Bitcoin may someday need to sunset those addresses, but that could force a public migration
Today we published a design to let that migration be costless and silent: Public Address-Control Timestamps (PACTs)

There's a way to let Satoshi keep his BTC without moving them

Holders only need to timestamp knowledge of their keys before a quantum break, which can be done silently and efficiently

The protocol could support a rescue path by proving one of these timestamps
...

PACT/v1: Bitcoin quantum-sunset proof of address control
network=bitcoin-mainnet
scriptPubKey=<the vulnerable output scriptPubKey>
salt=<32 random bytes>


salt = random(32 bytes)
msg = Encode("PACT/v1", "bitcoin-mainnet", scriptPubKey, salt)
control_proof = BIP322_FULL_SIGN(scriptPubKey, msg)
commitment = SHA256("PACT/v1 commitment" || salt || SHA256(control_proof))


Great idea.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 05, 2026, 01:22:11 AM

https://x.com/bradmillscan/status/1934299540116689134

still believe Bitcoin will hit ATHs next year, and next next year...
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2026, 01:05:17 AM
How long have we been in this 87-90k range by now, it feels like an eternity.

次のレベ
俳句を作る
日本語で

#haiku
#はいく
#俳句



AIの俳句
変なものになる
気をつけよう
lessons learned from BTC & Japanese
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2026, 12:50:57 AM
https://x.com/btconometrics/article/1874311314514075772
Quote

Bitcoin represents an unprecedented monetary asset where future supply points are known with mathematical certainty. This certainty, combined with its network effects and predetermined halving schedule, creates a unique temporal phenomenon:
The exchangeable value of Bitcoin at any moment represents the temporal collapse of all future monetary phases into the present.




We are entering into "Store of Value".

Tweet deleted?
no, i can see it.
He also pinned it at https://x.com/btconometrics homepage.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2026, 01:25:41 AM
https://x.com/btconometrics/article/1874311314514075772
Quote

Bitcoin represents an unprecedented monetary asset where future supply points are known with mathematical certainty. This certainty, combined with its network effects and predetermined halving schedule, creates a unique temporal phenomenon:
The exchangeable value of Bitcoin at any moment represents the temporal collapse of all future monetary phases into the present.




We are entering into "Store of Value".
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2025, 12:04:18 PM
buy 1000$ at 103K Wink
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 01, 2025, 01:22:49 AM
https://sam-jaques.appspot.com/quantum_landscape_2024

HODLER:quantum computer babies go away, don't break my bitcoin cup Wink
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 17, 2025, 01:36:42 AM
He is a talented British citizen who has long worked on digital wealth research with famous colleagues like Satoshi Nakamoto, Hal Finney and David Chaum.

He didn't actually work "with" any of these 3; when the source you mentioned says "worked alongside" them, it means that they were all active in cryptographic research within the same decade.
He is a great man though, but i  just unfollow him in twitter because he is a bit annoying. Every day he posts nearly 10 tweets including retweets. I don’t like the followings who post too many tweets (>4) per day.
9  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: 🚀💰BTC CONTEST "Beat The Conclave"🚀💰 on: April 27, 2025, 01:35:44 AM
BTC price for 30 days after the Pope is elected: 100,500 USD
BTC price for the 60 days after the Pope is elected : 138,000 USD
BTC price for the 90 days after the Pope is elected : 100,300 USD
10  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: Implications for Miners, Nodes, and Wallets on: December 11, 2024, 02:12:07 AM
Google announces  Willow, quantum chip.
Quote
The first is that Willow can reduce errors exponentially as we scale up using more qubits. This cracks a key challenge in quantum error correction that the field has pursued for almost 30 years.
Second, Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion (that is, 1025) years — a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe.

https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8329&continueFlag=86a666619f5897003da1fae21f589db6
Quote
Quantum Computing: Between Hope and Hype


https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1866480523800932364
Quote
the primary use of implementing winternitz signatures (PQ signatures), in bitcoin for now would be to knock out the quantum FUD traders! i can't see PQ being of relevance this decade, or probably more decades. "this time it's different" cool, we await with interest your results!

https://eprint.iacr.org/2011/191.pdf
winternitz signatures
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 08, 2024, 02:03:47 AM
Past does not indicate the future, but let's take a look:

AMZN, AAP and GOOGL ten years ago were in the middle of their multi-decade run (and were already dominant multi hundred billion [in market cap] companies).

In Oct 2014:
AMZN was about $16.2, now 180.8 (11.16X)-28% yearly appreciation
AAPL was about $24.5, now 222 (9.04X)-24.55% yearly appreciation
GOOGL was $28.9, now 163 (5.64X)-19% yearly appreciation

Average: 23.85% appreciation in 2014-2024 period.

Bitcoin had 44% yearly appreciation from 1160 in 2013 till now.
M.Saylor was saying that it had 40% appreciation recently, but will decrease somewhat going forward.

It is entirely possible that in the next 10 years bitcoin would slow down to somewhere between 35 and 25% based on the current status and comparing with most dominant companies.
If the number would be 35%, then in Oct 2034, btc would be 1266K and if 25%, 587K (with 926-927K average).
I am not taking into account the halving "schedule"...it very well may be that the peak in the next 10 years would be in 2033, instead,  Cheesy

These numbers make sense to me...

i hope 1M in 3034, but 10 years 10X  is ok
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 02, 2024, 01:55:22 AM
It's-a MEEEE  cAPSLOCKIO!  Here to pull the veil back on the flavor of crazy I have been cultivating for a while now.  Don't worry I will not stick around muttering to myself and junking up the place...  But indulge me for a moment.

"I've suffered a great many catastrophes in my life. Most of them never happened" -Mark Twain

"May you be able to see the future, but also be powerless to stop it" - some fictional Chinese asshole curse?

__________________________

The only way to continue to delay the imminent financial collapse of the faulty world economic system and for the powers that be to remain in power, or at least take as much off the table before the floor caves in is WAR.

War, War and more War.

Crazy thing is for the longest time the majority of folks in the west at least have no idea that a war is not STARTING, but has been underway for quite some time now.  We keep waiting for things like "missile strikes" which are coming... for sure.  Do not doubt that.

But consider what WAR would look like with a worldwide information system that is controlled by the people waging these wars.  Consider what war might look like when biological and chemical warfare is not dropped from planes, but fed to the populations of nations who gobble it all up willingly.

The mask has been off for those in power for some time.  Neocons like Lindsay Graham and his delight over killing an entire generation of Ukranians so he and his friends can divide up the resources that country sits on.  And uber wealthy socialist rubes like John Kerry who just openly stated that the First Amendment has made "governing" very difficult since he can no longer control the sources of where people get information, and there is no way to stop the "misinformation and disinformation".  A concept that so many sleeping people are lapping up like pablum.

Put the right flags in your yard.  Be on the side of the right people.  Hate the right people.  As long as you pick a side they do not care which you pick... I mean they have a preference, but as long as you hate the certain groups (often in the name of battling against "hate") then they can control you.

These people print money.  LOAN (God, the hubris) it to poor countries that can never pay it back also demanding that that loan be turned RIGHT around and fed straight back into the western military war machine with all the powerful people greasing their palms along the way, and openly insider trading markets, buying mansions and mansions.  Some of them will likely be assassinated before they get to enjoy the spoils of their deception.  Looking at you Volodymyr.  Maybe you should have stuck with the smaller comedy and acting career you had when you played pianos with your dick instead of upgrading your role to the world stage.  But sweet Miss Lindsay is glad you chose to join them!!! You will most certainly be rewarded! ... ...  I imagine you are fairly afraid at this point... I don't blame you.  Best wishes, and good luck!!

It's kind of obvious to me that one recent play is to set up the narrative that Iran is trying to kill Donald Trump.  Two birds... one stone.  Get rid of an inconvenient politician (who is either truly out of sync with the powers that be, or is playing a fantastic role for them... hard to say, honestly) as well as justify a full scale attack on Iran so we can kill their children and take their resources.  Iran has exactly NO REASON to assassinate Donald Trump.  Lol.  But the "news" will shout this out into the ether with all it's might until enough sleeping people believe, put the new signs in their yards and help the fight against "misinformation" as the useful idiots they are.

And maybe... maybe the next MK-Ultra'd sad sack having been groomed by the CIA will actually be able to make the kill shot.  And the criminals and devils running all this will get what they want again.  And we can start building planes, and missiles, and jobs and interesting new chemicals, and stimulate our economies once again!  Let's all eat bowls and bowls of sugar fried in seed oils!!! HOORAY!  We are winning again!

Though... there are other ways it could play out.  The west may already be defeated and dying.  Mostly hoisted upon it's own petard. Hard not to say good riddance if so.  With an entire generation of children who are questioning whether they even want to TRY to work, and build a life since they are smart enough to see that it is no longer possible.  They will never be able to afford a house.  They cannot even afford rent for a shitty apartment.  They are smart enough to see that... but most are not quite able to see that they are being teed up to be tapped right into the endless hole of surveillance, control, and oppression all in the name of community and fairness.  If they promise to air drop me some of that sweet sweet CBDC "money" then I am all in.  And I am glad if they take it from those other people... those rich people, no no not the ones in control... they can keep theirs, but those ugly ones... those ones who we do not just believe, but we KNOW do not deserve what they have.  Any other opinion is disinformation!  Right?  Right!  All the videos coming out of my phone have convinced me.  This is the most rational and fair path.

Straight to hell.  No hand basket even needed anymore... just download the app.

But this is all also quite tragic.  Sad that one of the greatest tries at equality and freedom will have failed.  Lost mostly because of it's own pride and hubris.

I will watch from over here, becoming a bitter old man, until all the shit I stupidly chose to put in my body all my life finally sets the cancer off.

Oh!  And GO BITCOIN!  I mean maybe... freedom tech can...  Oh never mind... we're fucked.

P.S.  If you read this and think I am crazy you are right.  But if you read it and put me in some polarized box thinking I have some common political position then you are still sleeping in my arrogant opinion.

SYSTEM is too powerful and solid,  maybe the Mars is the future.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2024, 02:06:29 AM

https://privatekeys.pw/puzzles/bitcoin-puzzle-tx
Quote
2024-09-12: puzzle #66 (6.60126013 BTC) was solved by 1Jvv4yWkE9MhbuwGUoqFYzDjRVQHaLWuJd (tx) but the original spending transaction was replaced by bc1qpkp47q5cucrvnyepsdnjcv2kzyav5ze0ta7n67 (tx) spending only 5.93923605 BTC. Another address 15XVN6hFkzGdUTY1XcsYKXxRezjARwyBQx took the rest of the prize: 0.66100387 BTC (tx).

Look like 66bits publickey isn't safe, can be cracked in less than 0.5 seconds.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 27, 2024, 02:38:39 AM


https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1816918536272674878
Quote
Michael Saylor of Microstrategy says "Bitcoin will be worth $13,000,000 a coin by the year 2045," at Bitcoin Nashville 2024
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2024, 01:51:03 AM
https://github.com/cryptoquick/bips/blob/e1fa27cb25deee8d58bdb9a64c112dfdf09e216d/bip-p2qrh.mediawiki
Quote
Abstract
This document proposes a new SegWit output type, with spending rules based on SQIsign signatures. (For more on why SQIsign is chosen, see the Security section.) A constraint is that no hard fork or modifications leading to an increase in block size are necessary.

...

Security
Quaternion isogeny signature algorithms represent the state of the art in post-quantum cryptography, beyond lattice cryptography, especially when key and signature length are major constraints.

Quantum resistant signature algorithms ordered by shortest proposed signature size:

SPHINCS+ - 17KB
pqNTRUsign - 702 bytes
FALCON - 666 bytes
HAWK - 652 bytes
SQIsign - 177-335 bytes
SQIsign2D-West - 148-294 bytes
SQIsignHD - 109 bytes



SQIsign, quantum resistance algorithm,  is coming.

don't worry about the price, we'll see 70K in serveral months.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2024, 01:14:01 AM
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1790885903084216627
Quote
Impressive just how many dif institution types represented in first 13Fs. Here's $IBIT breakdown by type. Only inst type missing is Endowment I think. Normally you don't see this long a list of holder types till years after launch and mega liquidity (which IBIT already has)


Institutions are coming, will we see ATH by the end of May?
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 23, 2024, 01:47:27 AM
The Bitcoin Runes Ecosystem


https://www.coingecko.com/learn/what-are-bitcoin-runes?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2024, 01:28:14 AM
I am so afraid i will be sad in 1-2 days for not selling bitcoin. But years ago i made decision not to sell and buy or trade, but just hold.
I have a bad feeling what is happen in next days, weeks because we are at around 64k on around 1 hour away to halving.

Oh well, balls of steel they say. But today i am not optimistic on short term or on 1 year term.
Someone cheer me up please lol

Well, we are doing awesome compared to half year ago
Hold is correct

If you bought at 30K, sell now, you will get 2x of your fiat, that’s all. After you sell all your bitcoin, how do you feel when bitcoin pass 100k,500k?

At fourth halving completing, there still is odds that bitcoin may crash to 10K.

So you have to play bets, and enjoy the consequence.

Actually win/lose isn’t matter, it is important that we learn from it, so we grow strong.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 15, 2024, 02:11:50 AM
I confess I sold some million satoshi yesterday at 63K. I’m not a truly HOLDer, but a weak hand. I am scared when BTC “crushed” to 62K, and I thought it may go to zero.

I shouldn’t sold but bought the dip, because halving is coming in several days.

I shouldn’t neglect JJG’s long post. I should study Toxic’s TA carefully, and I should have a dream in which I will own a same lake as Jimbo.

Have a good day! WOers.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2024, 02:20:41 AM
MicroStrategy bought 91,579 coins from 8/11/2020 to 04/5/2021, and Tesla bought 40K coins at 2/8/2021. They sent bitcoin price to the first top at 4/12/2021 with total 131K coins.

Now ETFs net bought 107,441 from 1/10/2024 to 2/18/2024, and bitcoin price has standed at 52K。If ETFs continue their paces, they will buy 300K coins before halving, so I guess we have odds to see ATH when halving is coming.

https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/microstrategy-statistics/
Quote
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Purchase History
Here is an up-to-date MicroStrategy bitcoin purchases chart(1-29).
Date   BTC Purchased   Amount   Total Bitcoin   Total Dollars
8/11/20   21,454   $250M   21,454   $250M
9/14/20   16,796   $175M   38,250   $425M
12/4/20   2,574   $50M   40,824   $475M
12/21/20   29,646   $650M   70,470   $1.125B
1/22/21   314   $10M   70,784   $1.135B
2/2/21   295   $10M   71,079   $1.145B
2/24/21   19,452   $1.026B   90,531   $2.171B
3/1/21   328   $15M   90,859   $2.186B
3/5/21   205   $10M   91,064   $2.196B
3/12/21   262   $15M   91,326   $2.211B
4/5/21   253   $15M   91,579   $2.226B
5/13/21   271   $15M   91,850   $2.241B
5/18/21   229   $10M   92,079   $2.251B
6/21/21   13,005   $249M   105,085   $2.740B
9/13/21   8,957   $419M   114,042   $3.159B
11/28/21   7,002   $414M   121,044   $3.573B
11/29/21 - 12/8/2021   1,434   $82.4M   122,478   $3.655B
12/30/2021   1,914   $94.2M   124,391   $3.750B
1/1/2022 - 1/31/2022   660   $25M   125,051   $3.775B
2/15/2022 - 4/5/2022   4,167   $190M   129,218   $3.965B
6/28/2022   480   $10M   129,699   $3.975B
9/20/2022   301   $6M   130,000   $3.981B
11/01/2021 - 12/21/2022   2,395   $42.8M   132,395   $4.024B
12/22/2022   -704   $11.8M   131,690   $4.012B
12/24/2022   810   $13.65M   132,500   $4.027B
03/27/2023   6,455   $150.00M   138,955   $4.140B
04/05/2023   1,045   $29.30M   140,000   $4.170B
04/29/2023 - 6/27/2023   12,333   $347M   152,333   $4.517B
07/01/2023 - 7/31/2023   467   $14.4M   152,800   $4.53B
09/24/2023   5,445   $147.3M   158,245   $4.68B
11/01/2023   155   $5.3M   158,400   $4.69B
11/30/2023   16,130   $593.3M   174,530   $5.28B
12/27/2023   14,620   $615.7M   189,150   $5.90B
02/06/2024   850   $37.2M   190,000   $5.93B
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