If someone can solve the issue of holding USD in a distributed nature, I'd love to see it.

This definitely is possible now, especially since very minor stuff can severely move the market.

$5M for the poker economy is nothing.  Say just initially 10,000 US players start up with $100 in BTC to play.  That's a 20% of the bitcoins in circulation today needed JUST for poker.  And that's just the tip of the iceberg.  50,000 players and you have to have all of the bitcoins (or have half the bitcoins and double the price).  It does not take much to go up by a lot.

But a few steps need to happen before that can happen.  There needs to be easier ways to get bitcoins for decent sums automatically or at least with a little effort.  I could see poker sites taking on this task since it's in their interest to make it easy.  Plus it ensures the transaction costs they eat would be recovered by putting it directly into a player account.  Next, the software needs to be written.  This requires significant investment.  Betco.in exists, but there's no way it could support that kind of user base right now.  The software is much flakier than anything I've ever played for real money, but it's at least a start and a proof of concept.

So we are looking probably 1 year away unless someone with some serious resources goes after this market sooner.  I could be wrong on this estimate, but things will start out with some clunky and poor sites with low traffic initially, then the bigger players enter.  Pretty much like 2000 all over again.

This is probably correct and something I need to try to look into to try to measure where it's at.  Obviously a big player in a gray/black market (that's legal in some countries) would make a huge impact.  I need to learn more about this to have an informed opinion.

Just want to make sure I have this correct.

Someone has an ask for 100 bitcoins at $1 each.

I make a trade with them.  I get 100 * .9935 BTC = 99.35 BTC, the other guy gets $100 * .9935 = $99.35?

Is this correct?

That's fine, but there is "only" 6M Bitcoins out there.  No one could ever have more.  A lot of people aren't going to sell theirs unless the price grows a ton more.

$5M is nothing in a speculative market.  Say someone can even get a .1% market share gambling with bitcoins.  That alone would make things go up by 20x.  Of course, i should just be quiet until I get a few grand in BTC before I pump things up too much.

I think you guys are putting way too many factors into play.  This is not due to dollar weakening or oil price spikes.  Almost all of this rise is due to speculation.  BitCoins are not terribly useful right now to most people.  There is pretty much very little reason to buy them with cash in terms of being useful.  It's all about people who think they *might* be useful in the future.  The BitCoin economy is super small.  6 million bitcoins at $1.15 each is nothing but a drop in the bucket.  If even one minor industry started even having one minor player start use bitcoins heavily, the value skyrockets.  Why?  Because there aren't enough compared to the amount of cash people need to inject into it.

But since its all speculative, it requires people absorbing the supply being mined each day and then sold.  So far, it's been happening.  You could buy out all the supply of mtgox for under $50k.  That's a tiny market.  There are speculators right now buying stuff, but not too much to rise the price too much.

No one is buying to hedge against 15% increases in energy prices or 15% falls in the dollar.  People are gambling that their $100 or $1000 they put into BitCoin turns out to be a 20x investment or more.  And if one valid use pops up, 20x will be the minimum.

Yes please sell, I want to buy more and want to do it cheaper.

I think there might be a lot to learn from it in terms of user experience, but not sure why this would take off.

I have an ask above $2 that is not showing up.

Barter is legal in the US, although you are supposed to pay taxes on it.

It does if you live in your mom and dads basement and use their electricity.

But how will Johnny Come Lately miners be able to get free money?  That's the point of this, right?

No, it's more that it's a super cheap area to live.

People will spend BTC if they have them if they would need to convert to another currency and the cost is more.

People will buy BTC if there is sufficient discount to overcome exchange fees, or there are no other options.

This is going to require a huge, huge investment.  Just getting past regulations is going to be super expensive.  Probably more investment than the entire bitcoin economy just to get going.  Right now it's not worth it for anyone to do this, even if they had the funding.

This is wrong.  There are huuuuge subsidies to corn farmers.  In fact, almost all would not be profitable at current prices until the subsidies come in.

If you have Netflix, there was a great documentary I believe called King Corn where some guys took an acre of corn and showed what happened to the corn, how a farmer would make his money, etc...

No government will ever adopt it as a national currency.   It's not in their interest.

However, the most likely place it evolves as a de facto currency is where the first country that has widespread internet usage, a decent standard of living, and then a currency collapse.  This means not places like Zimbabwe, but more on line with Greece/Portugal/Argentina types.

Sure, it just will be something accounted for.  Just like inflation is accounted for now by people loaning the money.

It still can be profitable to take a loan.  Plus, deflation only happens by the bitcoin economy expanding.

Right now the perception is not terribly wrong.  What is BitCoin used for?  Speculation and trading.  Some people do not see the vision.  That is fine.  That is why people will build the vision, and they will come if it is worth it.  Typical users will not see value in something that does not exist.  Those with vision will.  And by being ahead of the curve, they profit from it.  They find value for the typical user, and make it in their interest to use it.

But until then, it is only a tool for speculators, traders, child pornographers, drug dealers, etc...