|
No, that was a bad-ass call. Props to Lucif & Bright Anarchist. They have made more sense than just about anyone else on this forum.
|
|
|
|
Lucif bailed the morning of the drop. This is so perfect -- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1792764#msg1792764His precision and charting were spot on. He sold at the very top. BrightAnarchist was making excellent calls as well. Funny how people choose to believe mythology while discounting these EW guys. During intense periods of speculation, these are they guys to which you should be paying attention. |
|
|
|
First of all we would like to reassure you but no we were not last night victim of a DDoS but instead victim of our own
success!
Indeed the rather astonishing amount of new account opened in the last few days added to the existing one plus the
number of trade made a huge impact on the overall system that started to lag. As expected in such situation people
started to panic, started to sell Bitcoin in mass (Panic Sale) resulting in an increase of trade that ultimately froze
the trade engine!
No, the panic selling began well before the lag. This is an absurd statement. "As expected"?? No, I do not expect that new accounts on a trading platform would devastate a currency. And I don't believe it did. They use this lag as an excuse for any sell-off. We were going down well before this sell-off started. The lag actually slowed the sell-off down. IMO This is an absurd pump....basically saying 'Don't worry, we have tons of new buyers coming'. Can you imagine a broker in any other asset class making a statement like this? In another statement during the previous minor sell-off (not from yesterday but April 3rd) -- 'I understand that many of you have a lot at stake here, but remember that Bitcoin, despite being designed to have its value increase over time, will always be the victim of people trying to abuse the system, or even the value of Bitcoin decreasing occasionally. These are not new phenomena and have been present since the beginning of time when humans first started trading'. Can you imagine a brokerage in the US being able to say that the underlying is 'designed to increase in value' or that it's value 'decreases occasionally'? They couldn't because it would be illegal. Twitter: 'Trading is suspended until 2013-04-12 02:00am UTC for market cooldown. Once back trading will be also faster.' And now we're halted. I question their timing. We were in a slow sell-off at a key psychological support level (yesterday's low). We were not in a panic sell today, so why halt? They could have halted yesterday. Yes, they need to upgrade their servers....but I think it's interesting that they chose a key psychological support level to halt and not when it was trading higher today. |
|
|
|
|
Gox Twitter: "Trading is suspended until 2013-04-12 02:00am UTC for market cooldown. Once back trading will be also faster."
IMO They halted this because we were about to go below key psychological level on the chart......yesterday's low.
|
|
|
|
Mt Gox announced yesterday that they were going to shut down to add multiple redundant servers. But keep spreading the FUD people! I am buying coins cheap.  Apparently Mt Gox is spreading the FUD. Gox Twitter: "Trading is suspended until 2013-04-12 02:00am UTC for market cooldown. Once back trading will be also faster." IMO They halted this because we were about to go below key psychological level on the chart...... |
|
|
|
|
Does BitPay freeze for 12 hours? Do they accept coins at a rate which may change dramatically when we resume trading?
|
|
|
|
Wait, all exchanges are shutting down? And this is a decentralized currency? Lol. More like collusion. Hurts their pockets so they'll do what's best for them. God this looks bad for Bitcoin, and it severely alters my perception of this concept. What a development.
This was about to drop below yesterdays low and Gox halted it. That would be a death sentence for this chart. |
|
|
|
"BitCoin, the decentralized currency" Oh, really?
Right. |
|
|
|
The bots most likely impose some sort of price movement friction while being agnostic to market state, so they buy at that point.
It doesn't tell anything. Why do a magic conspiracy when there's money to be made without even caring why the market is as nutty as it is? Maniacs drive price around, bots take their share. It's just how it works.
What is annoying is that those tiny orders are allowed and drive up the lag. If Gox took a little bit off their high fees and imposed a 1$ trade fee in turn, there would be a lot less noise.
No magical conspiracy; they appear at key support levels because if those supports break -- yesterday happens. Someone or something with a vested interest to keep this up places these bot bids at key support levels to maintain the chart. People don't realize how close we've come to having a major sell-off over the past few weeks. We are always a support level away. |
|
|
|
The bots most likely impose some sort of price movement friction while being agnostic to market state, so they buy at that point.
It doesn't tell anything. Why do a magic conspiracy when there's money to be made without even caring why the market is as nutty as it is? Maniacs drive price around, bots take their share. It's just how it works.
What is annoying is that those tiny orders are allowed and drive up the lag. If Gox took a few % off their high fees and imposed a 1$ flat trade fee instead, there would be a lot less noise.
In real-time they would have no effect whatsoever. The reason they work is because of the lag.....in slow motion, they inflate the bid/ask. This affects the way people trade because, during a lag, the bid/ask keep shooting up well above the stream of sells, simulating a bounce. In real-time, the bids would be crushed. But in slow motion it helps stem the psychology of the panic because the inflated bid/ask stick for quite some time, giving everyone ample time to see it.. |
|
|
|
To simulate interest....look at all these 0.02 bids. If we drop to these levels and lag, they will support the bid/ask. EDIT: Always at key support levels.....we have a lag, then these bot bids appear. Bid/ask shoot up to the level of these tiny bids even though the stream of sells is much much lower. The slow motion of the lag make these bid/ask jumps much more pronounced, stemming the psychology of the sell-off. This is why we always jump back up so quickly after a minor sell-off (bizarre how bid/ask jump based on tiny 0.02 bids in spite of large 100s or 1000s of coin dumps). It's happened during the past 4 minor sell-offs and yesterday, although the selling was too strong for it to work yesterday. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172540https://i.imgur.com/umRmL7b.pnghttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170483In real-time they would have no effect whatsoever. The reason they work is because of the lag.....in slow motion, they inflate the bid/ask. This affects the way people trade because, during a lag, the bid/ask keep shooting up well above the stream of sells, simulating a bounce. In real-time, the bids would be crushed. But in slow motion it helps stem the psychology of the panic because the inflated bid/ask stick for quite some time, giving everyone ample time to see it.
390.8 0.0200 111.98500
390.8 0.0200 111.94500
390.8 0.0200 111.90500391.9 1.0926 111.90000 391.9 0.0200 111.86500
391.9 0.0200 111.82500
392.0 0.0200 111.78500
392.0 0.0200 111.74500
392.0 0.0200 111.70500
392.0 0.0200 111.66500393.6 1.5498 111.63000 393.6 0.0200 111.62500
393.6 0.0200 111.58500
393.6 0.0200 111.54500
393.6 0.0200 111.50500394.7 1.0500 111.50000 394.7 0.0200 111.46500
394.7 0.0200 111.42500
394.8 0.0200 111.38500
394.8 0.0200 111.34500
394.8 0.0200 111.30500
394.8 0.0200 111.26500395.8 1.0000 111.23000 395.8 0.0200 111.22500440.3 44.4567 111.21000 443.3 3.0000 111.20000 444.3 1.0000 111.19000 444.3 0.0200 111.18500
444.3 0.0200 111.14500445.2 0.8345 111.12000 447.5 2.3512 111.11111 448.6 1.1000 111.11100 683.6 234.9418 111.11000 683.6 0.0200 111.10500690.6 7.0000 111.10000 691.6 1.0000 111.09121 691.6 0.0200 111.06500707.2 15.5658 111.04851 707.2 0.0200 111.02500710.0 2.8000 111.02151 720.0 10.0000 111.02000 1135.4 415.4003 111.00000 1135.4 0.0200 110.98500
1135.4 0.0200 110.94500
1135.4 0.0200 110.90500
1135.5 0.0200 110.86500
1135.5 0.0200 110.82500
1135.5 0.0200 110.78500
1135.5 0.0200 110.74500
1135.5 0.0200 110.705001137.6 2.0200 110.70000 1137.6 0.0200 110.665001137.8 0.2500 110.62501 1137.9 0.0200 110.62500
1137.9 0.0200 110.58500
1137.9 0.0200 110.545001138.9 1.0000 110.51000 1138.9 0.0200 110.505001141.7 2.7548 110.50009 1143.0 1.3165 110.50000 1155.6 12.6087 110.47294 1155.6 0.0200 110.46500
1155.6 0.0200 110.42500
1155.7 0.0200 110.38500
1155.7 0.0200 110.345001205.7 50.0000 110.33000 1205.7 0.0200 110.305001210.7 5.0000 110.30000 1210.7 0.0200 110.265001210.9 0.2268 110.25000 1211.0 0.0200 110.225001215.0 4.0000 110.21110 2394.6 1179.6730 110.20003 3252.7 858.0232 110.20002 4252.7 1000.0000 110.20000 4252.7 0.0200 110.185004253.5 0.8366 110.15000 4253.5 0.0200 110.145004263.5 10.0000 110.13272 4263.6 0.0200 110.105004363.6 100.0000 110.10000 4373.1 9.5367 110.09000 4373.1 0.0200 110.065004374.1 1.0000 110.06325 4374.2 0.1371 110.03177 4374.3 0.0200 110.025004379.3 5.0000 110.02000 4382.1 2.8000 110.01251 5425.8 1043.7740 110.01000 5425.9 0.1000 110.00230 5525.9 100.0000 110.00100 7092.4 1566.5042 110.00000 7092.5 0.0200 109.98500
7092.5 0.0200 109.94500
7092.5 0.0200 109.905007093.8 1.2500 109.89998 7128.8 35.0000 109.87600 7128.8 0.0200 109.86500
7128.8 0.0200 109.825007165.2 36.4246 109.81600 7165.2 0.0200 109.78500
7165.3 0.0200 109.74500
7165.3 0.0200 109.70500
7165.3 0.0200 109.66500
7165.3 0.0200 109.62500
7165.3 0.0200 109.58500
7165.4 0.0200 109.54500
7165.4 0.0200 109.505007166.4 1.0500 109.50000 7166.5 0.0200 109.46500
7166.5 0.0200 109.42500
7166.5 0.0200 109.38500
7166.5 0.0200 109.34500
7166.5 0.0200 109.30500
7166.6 0.0200 109.26500
7166.6 0.0200 109.22500
7166.6 0.0200 109.18500
7166.6 0.0200 109.145007166.9 0.3000 109.14000 7168.9 1.9500 109.11900 7168.9 0.0200 109.105007171.1 2.2100 109.09440 7171.1 0.0200 109.065007171.1 0.0100 109.02884 7171.1 0.0200 109.025007276.6 105.4127 109.00000 7280.6 4.0300 108.99000 7280.9 0.3080 108.81766 7297.3 16.4454 108.56147 7445.6 148.2702 108.51805 7450.5 4.8930 108.51200 7451.6 1.0500 108.50000 7451.6 0.0200 108.46500
7451.6 0.0200 108.42500
7451.6 0.0200 108.38500
7451.6 0.0200 108.34500
7451.7 0.0200 108.305007461.7 10.0000 108.29508 7462.7 1.0000 108.28524 7462.7 0.0200 108.265007469.1 6.4665 108.25100 7469.2 0.0200 108.225007469.2 0.0100 108.20000 7469.2 0.0200 108.18500
7469.2 0.0200 108.14500 |
|
|
|
Hello my friend, did you bother reading mtgox statement? They couldn't handle all the clamoring for Bitcoin. Bored media? What rock do you live under?
A rock called 'reality'. Do you really think that these new customers will throw money into this chart? Please........and the media hype cycle is over. This isn't new anymore and the media gets bored easily. They were already getting bored. And pure hype/speculation was the only thing keeping this up. An hour of lag is only going to make panicing people panic more. They see the price dropping and slam the sell, but it doesn't go through and the price keeps dropping, so the place the sell even lower, and lower, and panic grows.
I completely understand what you're saying. It would've fallen further and faster in real time. There are other mechanisms at work during the lag......tiny bot trades that attempt to put green on the screen and stem the psychology of the sell-off (only occurring during the lag, and usually working). I can post various links of data sets and screenshots (mine and others who've mentioned this). What normally happens during a sell-off is...the price rolls over, the lag starts and grows the lower it goes, hundreds of tiny bot buys (e.g., 0.02 BTC) keep the bid/ask up (much much higher than steam of sells) in spite of 100s or 1000s of dumped coins as a means to stem the psychology of panic simply by simulating interest. Because everything has slowed down, these bot buys make it look like we're bouncing because people are seeing the bid/ask stick higher in a more pronounced way than if we were trading real-time. The bid/ask keeps bouncing up to these tiny trades (5%-10% higher than stream of sells) and that's why we always bounce back up so quickly after minor sell-offs. Yesterday's selling was too intense, but they tried the same maneuver. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172540.msg1795308#msg1795308https://i.imgur.com/umRmL7b.png |
|
|
|
The money pipeline analogy might make sense if the market hadn't already nosedived. That doesn't look like too much money moving into the market to me.
What do you expect from the userbase when it shits itself in panic when significant lag occours? The market needs to evolve/improve. both on the user's and service provider's side. I call bull, seems to me lag is being caused by selling not the other way around. If anything lag is slowing the crashes. Exactly. The lag quells panic, if anything. Trading curbs on NYSE/Nasdaq are used to quell panic. The lag is used as an excuse for every sell-off even though the sell-off is well under way when it occurs. I'm sorry, but do you think the Japanese Yen would implode because major forex platforms had a delay? People couldn't login to their forex accounts so the currency would simply halve. If so, all the more reason not to own the Yen. I get 502s on Bitcoincharts every day. These websites are having difficulty with the traffic. |
|
|
|
Look at history... buy whenever there is a DDOS attack.
Listen, Bitcoin crashed because Mt. Gox couldn't handle the flood of new buyers. And that caused the panic selling.
The problem is TOO much money wants into bitcoin for the pipes in to handle.
What do you think is going to happen once those pipes get bigger or replaced?
Sheesh... this one is a no brainer.
Buy!
The money pipeline analogy might make sense if the market hadn't already nosedived. That doesn't look like too much money moving into the market to me. Right. All of these new customers are probably a moot point. I don't see them clamoring for Bitcoin. And the media is bored now as well. |
|
|
|
These discussion forums are strange. Each discussion consists of 30% sensible and thoughtful postings, interleaved with 70% idiot postings. I am getting used to this, but I still have to waste a few seconds on each idiot posting to recognize and ignore it.
Have the idiots still not lost all their money and disappeared? Many have, but new ones are always streaming in.
Yes, bizarreness is at least 70% of this speculation forum. The ratio seems to change and correlate with market price. It's a contrarian indicator. |
|
|
|
of course we don't know for sure, but likely these tiny orders are created by trading bots.
These computer programs use various strategies to test out the market. Often they flood the available spread with tiny orders and watch how long it takes for them to be bought or sold away. From that it is possible to guess the current market momentum. Other bots have been observerd to try to push up or down the visible rate, especially when the spread between buy an sell is rather large. Some people can be tricked by the impression of e.g. a constantly sinking nomial rate to believe that the market is going down, even if there is no real movement.
But all the bot trades yesterday were meant to make the market look like it was bouncing not up, not down. There were 100s of tiny .02 buys that were placed well above pricing action to stem the psychology of a panic sell. |
|
|
|
These are the tiny buys that support the bid/ask that I've discussed on other threads. These always occur during every sell-off. They usually transact much higher than the sells and the bid/ask somehow pops back up to the level of these tiny sells in spite of 100s of coins being dumped much lower. It's bizarre. If these are causing the lag, then they do it to stem panic selling (and not the other way around like everyone's thinking). |
|
|
|
Not a chance in hell.
Coordinated DDoS.
Yes, there is a chance in hell. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
