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581
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Even Alex Jones makes fun of us
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on: April 14, 2013, 09:50:52 AM
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...ya it was dumb... Adams said that the people who created bitcoin are "Bitcoin Billionaires FOR SURE", when the market cap of bitcoin is 1.2 Billion Dollars.....
It may be true. Bear in mind the money made by the early holders/ traders will be a sum of almost ALL the total transactions ever made NOT just the market cap. So ask: how much volume has been traded in total and at what prices? How much of it went into the hands of big/ early holders? I'm pretty sure that comes to something a few orders of magnitude larger than $1B. |
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582
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 14, 2013, 09:46:57 AM
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I'm still amazed that people are falling for it though I am glad of the cheap coins on the way down.
It's very predictable if you watch it and has the secondary effect of suppressing sudden price spikes.
Maybe it's a Force for Good in disguise? :p
I don't mind getting some extra coins off it  There's still people claiming the lag is propping up the price though; I don't understand it. Every sell off has shown the opposite. It's interesting. There is the immediate panic-selling and the predictable pattern of decline based on a few periods of oblivion the exact size of the lag. Now people are beginning to expect it I think it might suppress the price, working AGAINST whoever's orchestrating this. I still can't believe this an emergent problem of Mt Gox's software. As a people-watcher, I find it a fascinating lesson in mass psychology though! |
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584
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 14, 2013, 09:28:18 AM
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I'm still amazed that people are falling for it though I am glad of the cheap coins on the way down.
It's very predictable if you watch it and has the secondary effect of suppressing sudden price spikes.
Maybe it's a Force for Good in disguise? :p
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590
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 13, 2013, 07:58:28 PM
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This is ridiculous. It rose all day and had no signs of going below $100.
Do people really believe that so many people simultaneously decided to sell that 30 minutes of lag was created?
This is clear manipulation that gox still hasn't been able to prevent.
There is no manipulation here. Many bulls dropped from the game, and bears are prevailing now. The market always will go up and down, even a bear market. It's nothing unusual that it was rising for some time. I really, really beg to differ. |
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592
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 13, 2013, 07:37:37 PM
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1. Deposit 1USD to a dummy account
2. Create 10000 bid orders of 0.01BTC at $0.01 slowly (without creating lag)
3. Sell off
4. Rapidly adding new orders to the dummy account
5. The MtG card trading engine is forced to re-evaluate the validity of the 10000 bid orders
6. 30 minutes lag
7. Profit
Does it work?
I'm sure the trading engine wouldn't let a single IP address create that many orders, so it has to be distributed. |
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593
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 13, 2013, 07:18:32 PM
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Yes indeed the front-end and trade servers MUST BE different for sure.
Looks like you don't get my point. How external attackers can access servers inside gox infrastructure? This is pretty unbelievable. Step 1: Wait for spread. Step 2: Make 3 accounts. Step 3: Deposit 0.5 bitcoin into each. Step 4: Sell 0.5 bitcoin from one of them. Step 5: Make a bot that buys your own 0.5 bitcoin back over and over and over for 0% fee until spread closes. Yep, that works. I would imagine more accounts than 3 though. |
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595
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 13, 2013, 07:07:00 PM
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Lag appeared to be dropping rapidly a couple minutes ago. Fell form 30+ and settled around 28 and is hovering.
Is it possible the lag is caused by too many people updating their orders simultaneously? It would need to be a hell of a spike in order changing. I don't know what percentage of orders are short-lived, in that they are either market orders or Bid or Asks who almost immediately get filled. I suspect most orders are short-lived - just a hunch. |
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596
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 13, 2013, 07:01:54 PM
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This is what I'm saying: I'm looking at ALL trades on multiple charts, I don't see a ton of 0.01 or 0.02 trades, just normal, low-volume trade going on.
The attackers choose a high and a low point:
Put in spread bids at desired low-price, begin sell-off and commence DDoS at the same time.
This is the only thing that makes sense unless you have a tin-foil hat.
Would be interesting to look at the pattern of Bid wall development right before this happens.
I should screen record the next one.
mtgox.com is still up and responding well tho? Yes indeed the front-end and trade servers MUST BE different for sure. |
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598
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 13, 2013, 06:58:26 PM
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This is what I'm saying: I'm looking at ALL trades on multiple charts, I don't see a ton of 0.01 or 0.02 trades, just normal, low-volume trade going on.
The attackers choose a high and a low point:
Put in spread bids at desired low-price, begin sell-off and commence DDoS at the same time.
This is the only thing that makes sense unless you have a tin-foil hat.
Would be interesting to look at the pattern of Bid wall development right before this happens.
I should screen record the next one.
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599
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 13, 2013, 06:29:05 PM
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But yeah: tons of lag, minimal trade means DDoS.
Whatever it is but it absolutely definitely can not be caused by DDOS. DDOS can only prevent communications with server, but right now problem lay inside gox infrastructure. May be their main database server is on fire and slowly melted right now. Sure about that? I see very few trades. What other legitimate drain on resources can there be? And any kind of DoS attack by its definition covers anything that denies the host resources. Or was that sardonic? |
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600
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
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on: April 13, 2013, 06:17:56 PM
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Who needs TA when you can easily predict the price just by looking at how much lag there is. Lag is the new starfish! LOL
That's what I'm asking? Lag then sell-off? Lag because of sell-off? But yeah: tons of lag, minimal trade means DDoS. |
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