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1  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work) on: July 22, 2019, 09:16:48 PM
Maybe there is a method which can work to defeat the system, but I don't think that every gambler can do that because that will require genius skills. We can only play gambling without having a big chance to win the games, but for sure, we only lose the money at all time. But I am sure that there is a person who can win the game with his luck and that happens only for a few people.

Gambling is gambling. it is impossible for someone to change a destiny in the future except that the game depends on skill. it's totally different from gambling, which relies entirely on luck. if I myself consider gambling the game of mental fighting and guts. and brought with fun not to gettin stress. which I believe there is no method for getting rich through gambling. unless you are the one who runs the gambling business itself.


Well, there is the off-chance that so-called randomly generated results aren't as random as they first appear.

Plenty of people claim to be able to reverse engineer the results-generation algorithm, however, the vast majority are lying scumbags.

They are "random" but the only way you could possibly circumvent the system that current gambling websites use is to crack the hashing algorithm. Usually any big gambling website has a "provably fair" system in which you can verify the results of the dice roll. However, after a lot of these hashing algorithms got cracked, they made them a lot stronger. Basically the good days are over for hash cracking, as people got smart and started using somewhat secure hashing algorithms and not default ones.
2  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work) on: July 22, 2019, 04:54:33 PM
I read a thread today that a man won the lottery 12 times and he did so by creating an algorithm and he managed to do it so the system can be beaten but it take a genius to do it.Almost all normal gamblers who know nothing of algorithms they just play their way and although many of them say they know the secret they don't.I agree that everyone should play the way they feel more comfortable playing.Gambling should not be stressful otherwise addiction is right behind the door.

Here we go again! Smiley So, is there a possibility that someone can invent a "winning method" or there is no such possibility? I think it is the latter because no genius can hack math. Read carefully the famous story how MIT students won $8 million in the Massachusetts Lottery, and you'll see that it happened because of the mistake of the organizers, not because of some miraculous(or genius) algorithm. The "mistake" was actually an intentional one, but that's another story. If you haven't read it, it's worth reading.

In short, even if someone had won 12 times in a lottery, he was just lucky and that's it. Don't buy his method, you will not increase your chances of winning by doing so. Don't buy any "winning methods" because they are no better than those you can invent by yourself.

Yea I think people often forget that most of those stories involved some sort of "exploit". They confuse "exploit" and "method" for some reason. I guess some don't realize the difference between the two.

3  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work) on: July 22, 2019, 03:44:10 PM
It's a given fact and proven that no method works, you can win once but you cannot win every time, so why not just allocate funds relax and play the game, without forcing yourself to win in every bet, you'll not only going to enjoy it but you will have confidence in your ability to stop when it's time to stop.

Thatís right, gambling is set it in a way where no methods or strategies that works and that can secure you a win. Gambling is more on luck and no matter how smart you are in creating a strategy, it wonít work, whether we like it or not, between the gambler and the owner, itís the owner is the one getting rich while the gambler is becoming broke.
Just come to think literally if there were methods do exist then there would be no gambling sites on the first place yet these things will just bankrupt their business.

Its a total BS for people to think of this possibility yet it isn't possible on the first place but there were fools who do push up beyond on what they are trying to believe on.

Yea this is the "logical" way to think about it. Same as the "too good to be true" mentality. If there was any "easy money", why would anyone work a job? I think it helps to look at it in a different way though, because sometimes people assume that they can "beat" the system, while others can't.

This is true in some scenarios for example, poker, where a lot of people just through away money, while others study and take calculated risks. Poker is a game that applies some skill though, unlike a truly random thing like dice.
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What do you think about the price of Bitcoin if Donald Trump can ban Bitcoin ? on: July 22, 2019, 03:38:33 PM
We can expect a huge crash in this scenario.

BTC won't die, but with BTC banned, I don't see a lot of people brave enough to take the risks of being banned
And another situation is the institutional money, companies will sell BTC immediately ins this case

Yea, I honestly think the main problem would be the exchanges. Since they would no longer be able to legally run and sell Bitcoin for fiat, it would cause a lot of issues. I think that the chances of this really happening though are quite slim. Donald (just like every president) says a lot of things that will never happen, just to get the crowd going.
5  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Brutal Truth on: July 21, 2019, 04:24:43 PM
The point of 2-fa wasn't to make an account bullet-proof, but to significantly improve security without being huge inconvenience.

For the average person, 2-fa is sufficient security. In order to login to one of your accounts, the hacker would have:

     [1] Your password

     [2] Your username

     [3] The website

     [4] Your phone

So unless you are worried about your roommate stealing phone and knowing all of this stuff, you are pretty safe.


Edit: As the post above me says: be careful with your TOTP codes. Even though a lot of people think they are harmless because they expire, they don't expire immediately. Often you can still use the code for up to 30 minutes, giving the hacker plenty of time to login and disable 2-fa + anything else.


Most important thing to realize: You are probably the biggest threat to your own security, always double check.
6  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What do you think about the price of Bitcoin if Donald Trump can ban Bitcoin ? on: July 21, 2019, 04:10:51 PM
Trump saying he is going to ban Bitcoin is like him saying he is going to build a border wall. Neither will happen. I wouldn't worry about it too much, but his tweets certainly do affect the crypto-market, along with the regular stock-market. Like I always say, there is no bad publicity for things like Bitcoin.
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work) on: July 21, 2019, 04:05:45 PM
If a specific method works or will work in gambling then no casino or website will be established. It purely depends on your luck to win or not. Even mathematicians can't or even tried to beat a gambling system.
If a gambler can sucked everything inside the casino house using a system that will keep him winning against the house, then logically right that there's no more new casinos that will exist most of them will be closed since gamblers can create strategy to overcome their system.

Yea it's like the guy on PrimeDice who won over 800 BTC because he cracked hashing algorithm, crazy stuff. Can't imagine that much money from a simple website exploit. I guess that's why bug bounties pay so much.
8  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How to start learning programming? on: July 21, 2019, 03:43:41 PM
I was pretty much at the same place you were around 2 years ago. One recommendation I have: start simple. One of the hardest things about programming is learning the general concept and how it all works. Once you learn one language, the others become significantly easier. I would suggest starting with a higher-level (closer to "human") language, such as Java or Python. I started with Python and I absolutely don't regret it at all, the main reason is: it's extremely flexible and you can learn so many useful skills from it. It's also becoming more and more useful in the age of data analytics, as compared to Java which is fading.

Absolutely the best way to learn programming is through an actual book, the online courses are awful and just a waste of money.

Here is an awesome collection Python textbooks.
9  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The Gambler's Fallacy (The key to unbiased gambling) on: July 21, 2019, 03:32:05 PM
I understand this theory but,to oversimplify things a little bit,the more you gamble the bigger the chance of losing everything. Grin
What differentiates a good gambler from a bad gambler is the fact that the good gambler knows when to stop,while the bad gambler just wants more and more,and eventually he loses everything.
It's all about self-control and psychology,not mathematics.

Well, only greed people will do that. Once you are a gambler just always avoiding the matter that you can't control your self and finding more and more profit and eventually keep losing because of chasing profit and that is a bad gambler. The fact that that kind of attitude makes them self worst if they are turning into addiction in gambling. Indeed, just be a good gambler and that is the real fallacy if you are that kind of gambler not gambling itself.

One piece of advice that I can offer in order make "unbiased gambling" easier, is to acknowledge the fact that the money you put in is already gone. For example, if I ever deposit: I imagine that I no longer own the money anymore, usually it makes it easier to accept loses if you already accept it.
10  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work) on: July 21, 2019, 03:15:21 PM
And that is why martingale is not really effective, as the longer you play with this system the odds grow overtime. If you employ strategy and have successes in the beginning, before get out and exit while you can and don't feel confident that you have caught the 'holy grail' of strategies. Control is the key is you wanted to win using martingale (or any variations of it).
I agree with op that there is no any gambling strategies that really works and we do need strong understanding of this fact in other not to continue thinking that we are going to hit it big through one secret that only us know and others did not know. The martingale strategy you mentioned did not work and it makes me lose huge amount of money about three weeks ago when I tried to test it for the first time. I conclude within myself that there is no secret that works but only luck that may makes you to win in gambling and that means gambling is for fun and not hit big.

Yea that's what's so crazy about it, even when you "know" methods don't work, you can still sometimes convince yourself that it does. I still have a lot of trouble understanding exactly how the math works, just because the sheer scale. Statistics is such a fascinating subject, especially when gambling is involved.
11  Other / Meta / Re: Zero to Hero on: July 21, 2019, 03:06:17 PM

Now that's a whole different generation
12  Other / Meta / Re: Zero to Hero on: July 21, 2019, 01:07:03 PM
Slowly making my way there! Almost a full member now which I never thought was possible, just gotta focus on actually contributing and everything else will come eventually!
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work) on: July 21, 2019, 02:35:13 AM
I have met a lot of people who like to gamble and that's cool but a majority of them say they "know the secret" they can "beat the system" it's wild for so many people to think they can edge out the house or there is a system that hasn't been figured out and blocked yet.

Honestly if you're looking for odd's martingale roulette could be it and just always bet on one color but make sure you have a hell of a large bankroll to rock it.

Actually had tried to make use of martingale with roulette which only bets with one color then increases 100% if bets lost. I thought making money is easier with martingale with roulette than dice but when theres a color train it did bust up all of my balance.Majority knows that theres no magic or exploiting gambling sites and make money but this is an impossible thing.

The martingale is probably one of the most known and most popular betting methods of all time.

Just for a simple example of the outcomes of using martingale:

Lets say you have 100$ (for simplicity), only doubling 100% on a loss (50 / 50 coin-flip), doing this until you hit 200$ or bust.

You would have a 50% chance of doubling your money (+100$) and 50% chance of losing everything (-100$). This gets a lot worse when you start to look at house edge, hence the house always wins phrase.
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / Impossibility of a gambling system (Why methods don't work) on: July 21, 2019, 01:37:33 AM
Introduction

In continuation of my last thread on the Gambler's Fallacy I am writing this thread to explain more specifically why "strategic" methods don't work. We've all heard of and seen these methods float around forums for years, let's end that. Let people have fun, and don't trick them into thinking they have better odds using a "method".



Definition

The principle of the impossibility of a gambling system is a concept in probability. It states that in a random sequence, the methodical selection of subsequences does not change the probability of specific elements.



A Simple Example

A sequence of fair coin tosses produces equal and independent 50/50 chances for heads and tails.

Let's take a series of coin flips (h = heads, t = tails, x = next flip):

     {A}: H T H H H T X

     {B}: T T T T T T X

Given series {A} and series {B} (assuming a fair coin), the odds that "X" becomes a "T" (or tails) is 50%.



Why

As a mathematical consequence of computability theory, more complicated betting strategies (such as a martingale) also cannot alter the odds in the long run.



What is considered a "method"

A simple system of betting on heads every 3rd, 7th, or 21st toss, etc., does not change the odds of winning in the long run. This includes all popular methods like martingale, etc. (Remember we are talking about things like dice rolls and coin tosses here, in contrast to something like poker which requires some level of skill)



In conclusion

Just gamble how you want to, don't feel bad because you aren't missing out on anything. Often times, methods can end up taking more of your money because of the house edge. Even though a lot of people seem to understand that methods don't change your odds, I've still seen plenty of others who believe they work. Please never buy methods, I've seen it happen too many times.


Further reading:

Wikipedia Page | In-depth Thesis
15  Other / Meta / Re: Unionize the membership. on: July 21, 2019, 12:23:45 AM
Far too late at this point, with something like this it has to be implemented right from the start, otherwise it just goes to shit. Plus it just adds complexity for no reason, the forum is setup the way it is because it works and I like it just fine. Yea there are some things I would fix but anyone still using the forum likes it in one form or another. Why would you want to take something, that you like already and then give everyone else the power to change it for you?
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The Gambler's Fallacy (The key to unbiased gambling) on: July 20, 2019, 08:39:51 PM
Which is why, when I am on a joy ride of martingale, I don't think of streaks nor do I think of # of bets, nor do I think of changing my targets as I get closer to them. I generally have a capital, a fixed target, and then I go on the joy ride, martingaling, and then allowing 1 of 2 things to happen: I bust because that maximum losing streak has hit me, or I achieve my target and get in profit.

I've been asked about the latter and yes I could simply get the same result in 1 bet (and probability is the same!) but this way, I gain more wagering amounts, which generally gives me some edge later.

The point is, I know that no matter how many times I bust, doesn't affect my probability for the next round. And conversely, I could always get in profit and never bust, because I will never gamble enough to achieve a large enough sample =)

Employing betting strategies (such as a martingale) cannot alter the odds in the long run. However, as you said: you are never going to gamble enough to achieve a large enough sample. You are legitimately the first person I have met who understands martingale and the odds, but still uses the method. Good luck on those joy rides Cheesy
17  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The Gambler's Fallacy (The key to unbiased gambling) on: July 20, 2019, 07:32:48 PM
...

I disagree with that if you bet 20times on the same side and you lose, the odds are not the same for the next flip (if the flips are really random).
It doesn't mean you'll have 100% chances to win but you'll have more than 50% chances to win...

The odds don't change at all based on streaks, because people often think parts need to be representative of the whole leading to the erroneous belief that streaks must even out.

You can disagree all you want, but it's a statistical fact. You are more inclined to think that the odds are different because your brain tries to play tricks on you.
No the gaussian law says that the expected probability tends to be respected if the game is really random.
Look at the chart above.

That is again, false. I think you are not realizing the independence of events, here is a good explanation:

"While a run of five heads has a probability of 1/32 = 0.03125 (a little over 3%), the misunderstanding lies in not realizing that this is the case only before the first coin is tossed. After the first four tosses, the results are no longer unknown, so their probabilities are at that point equal to 1 (100%). The reasoning that it is more likely that a fifth toss is more likely to be tails because the previous four tosses were heads, with a run of luck in the past influencing the odds in the future, forms the basis of the fallacy."

To add on a little more, I think you are speaking of statistical regularity "or a notion in statistics and probability theory that random events exhibit regularity when repeated enough times or that enough sufficiently similar random events exhibit regularity. It is an umbrella term that covers the law of large numbers, all central limit theorems and ergodic theorems."

It is commonly confused with the gambler's fallacy:

"This phenomenon should not be confused with the gambler's fallacy, because regularity only refers to the (possibly very) long run. The gambler's fallacy does not apply to statistical regularity because the latter considers the whole rather than individual cases."
18  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The Gambler's Fallacy (The key to unbiased gambling) on: July 20, 2019, 07:01:00 PM
...

I disagree with that if you bet 20times on the same side and you lose, the odds are not the same for the next flip (if the flips are really random).
It doesn't mean you'll have 100% chances to win but you'll have more than 50% chances to win...

The odds don't change at all based on streaks, because people often think parts need to be representative of the whole leading to the erroneous belief that streaks must even out.

You can disagree all you want, but it's a statistical fact. You are more inclined to think that the odds are different because your brain tries to play tricks on you.
19  Other / Meta / Re: Stake your Bitcoin address here on: July 20, 2019, 05:52:09 PM
Code:
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Confirmation that this is me (Aero Blue) on BitcoinTalk (bitcointalk.org), better safe than sorry!
-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
14EQ2GvKbfkwU8JZ8PdWoAqDUWByzRAn4E
HzXNPydoviSdGdaIFl3Cwf+tmBN+o9eZI4HCrj1ZvhBbCGlvlxfxSjpOVfK62/yIR3psQRqcXPUK1T2CNHRLqyM=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
20  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best information I ever received for trading. on: July 20, 2019, 05:28:35 PM
It may not be that hard to google something but just post the link... Whenever you discuss something people might ask for, it's common sense to leave a link to avoid confusion

Here is the book on GoodReads, it has reviews and where it is available for purchase.

Seems like a pretty popular book, I may check it out when I have some extra time.
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