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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 25, 2018, 02:44:48 AM
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This could be shaping up to something like the May 2014 interim bull trap and visit 10K or so again.
 Where can a G3 with more power than G2 come from? The volume is so low, is it off of the accumulated drop from 10k at the top of G2? 2014 replay looks like a fall to fake bottom™ #1 @~4800, bounce it 6k, try again, bounce again. Then when it hits 6k this final time and has absolutely nowhere to go it's off to 3k for a real volume bounce. |
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24
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 13, 2018, 07:47:14 PM
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$6144 two part betting game.
A) When will $6144 be broken on the way down.
B) When will $6144 be broken back on the way up.
June 10th going down. 30% bounce off of 5,x00 a few weeks later to break it on the way up. Working backwards from the 'ceiling' is the best way to find the low. Ceiling is the price it can hit without existing in a fresh bullrun (3 years away at best). Where do people put the current ceilings? 20 - ultimate level, out of the question currently 17 - last chance sell stop after the crash, hard to see it going here and stopping 12 - mythical 'resistance' for a 13 style double top, if it couldn't hit it on 2 glades it can't hit it 10 - glade 2.0 top 08 - likely where we are now, this will get shorted and dumped hard here 8k top means it needs to visit a support level well below it that people still believe strongly in, natural guess is the 5,500 level from the wonderous bcash night of magic. Bounce prediction I am not as sure on now. |
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26
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 07, 2018, 01:40:22 AM
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Why am I being called with the bat signal? Do you want another bearish opinion? I think it's ridiculous how every tiny green candle on this forum over the past month has been the moon rocket lifting off, and every chart has found a way to incoroporate a different upwards arrow on it somehow.
Bat signal intent was with an Adam West frame.
Do you want another bearish opinion?
I do, but it would probably be better if anyone could trash the bear case I have put together here: -Decreasing volume, reversal would require far greater volume, last vol spike for a bounce here was May 22, 40k (1d bfx). Feels like a reversal would need at least 3x this amount. -Bid depth, not getting deeper, no base for a rally to build on. 10k coins to last high vol support zone from the past (5.5k, bfx) -Bull trap shakeout pattern has not been violated. 17k, 12k, 10k, all ded. If the pattern continues this would be glade 3.0, it gets a smaller bounce (~25%) than 2.0 (50%) or 1.0 (100%). This lack of bounce is a reflection of the low volume being unable to charge things. Dream spot here is a continuation on low volume to 8.2k or so, followed by a sharp fall that breaks this triangle everyone is watching and confirms the search for a bottom will continue. |
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29
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 24, 2018, 11:12:12 PM
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$6144 two part betting game.
A) When will $6144 be broken on the way down.
B) When will $6144 be broken back on the way up.
June 10th going down. 30% bounce off of 5,x00 a few weeks later to break it on the way up. Working backwards from the 'ceiling' is the best way to find the low. Ceiling is the price it can hit without existing in a fresh bullrun (3 years away at best). Where do people put the current ceilings? 20 - ultimate level, out of the question currently 17 - last chance sell stop after the crash, hard to see it going here and stopping 12 - mythical 'resistance' for a 13 style double top, if it couldn't hit it on 2 glades it can't hit it 10 - glade 2.0 top 08 - likely where we are now, this will get shorted and dumped hard here 8k top means it needs to visit a support level well below it that people still believe strongly in, natural guess is the 5,500 level from the wonderous bcash night of magic. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 11, 2018, 08:42:59 AM
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Altcoiners have gone full retard. I still dont underserstand why ETH is above $50. But it seems like theres this tide of $X00B dollars of speculative money that is going in and out of crypto to play the crashes and rebounds and this speculative money is going into all the major coins almost indiscriminately like a vegas casino floor so the smaller cap coins are more affected.
How is there $X00B? I would put total fiat that can 'flow' in and out at something around 10-20 billion. 3 billion tether 5 billion on USD exchanges 3-5 on JPY and KRW exchanges 3-5 Slushing around OTC desks |
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37
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: April 07, 2018, 07:06:22 AM
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There could be a big crash, but it's not going to happen all at once as were already in slow grind mode. It would be a slow slide with lots of bounces like 2014. I think from here it could go to 7-8K then have a bounce back up to 13K before proceeding with the next wave down to 5.5K then a much longer bounce to 10K and then a final wave to above 3K. This would mimic 2014.
Glade never broke 12k, in relative terms it has been far below the same movement from '14. Glade 2.0 seems setup to be much more tame as well: Upward spikes are harder in a more mature market + More resistance overhead from the lower highs. Running to 10k still possible? 5.5k was the classic support level from the past during the BCH scare, still highest number it can bounce off of after this glade? |
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