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61  Economy / Economics / Re: Yes or No? Doesn't Bitcoin unfairly benefit early adopters? on: March 13, 2018, 08:35:04 PM
The initial emission scheme is part of Bitcoins fatal flaws. It should have been slow when starting out and much faster when POW was higher and usage was way up. Approach it from simple principles, why would the world voluntarily pass off huge amounts of wealth to early adopters? There is nothing in BTC that can't be trivially replicated or improved upon. Only speculators hoping for a bigger sucker will pay them off, and there is a limit to how many new ones appear. If BTC is the worlds currency then some sysadmin who mined a bunch in the early days gets to own California?
62  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2018, 01:14:05 AM
What was your thesis for a March pump?

'Standard View'

BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.


'Miracle 2013 style double top'

We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:

-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies

Honestly. I know this sounds stupid but intuition. I have been staring at bitcoin charts for 8 years now. It made a very solid looking bottom with very reasonable growth coming out of that bottom, a healthy and calm retracement down to about half of that run up then further upside that broke out past the last high. It's just what bitcoin charts have looked like to me when the bottom was in in the past. It looked like textbook - people are done freaking out so therefore we can resume the more general trend that is up. And ultimately I am a bull long term. So when ever people stop freaking out and cool their heads after a mania bitcoin tends to resume the general multi year bull trend.

I hope that made some sort of sense.

I see where you are coming from, winning in trading mean ruthlessly rational analysis, combined with understanding what move the market from first principles. I would have done enormously better if I applied my own principles better to my own trading. You should try to destroy every idea and 'feeling' you have from every possible angle. I think if you had tried this you would have seen the holes in your trading strategy sooner.
63  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2018, 12:52:15 AM
Is it just me or is the mood in here turning very #CRAEFULGANG?

Isn't it good to retest support? I guess it was a successful test.

2 dips below 8500, and one below 8800.

I got a feeling Asia is sick of buying at this price...
maybe looking to find cheaper today... (3 times in a row) Angry

I have never been so sure in my life that bitcoin was going to go bullish early march. I was approaching 99% sure of my bullish sentiment. And I'm not usually wrong. I'm willing to admit when I dont know, which is often, but when I decide that I do know I have always been right. That kick in the teeth of being not just a little bit wrong but so extraordinarily 100% 180 degrees wrong sent me from the most bullish I have ever been to the most bearish. At this point I'm waiting for a retest of 6k atleast.

It really really really should have been off to the races from like the third of this month. This pullback should not have been as dramatic as it was...

What was your thesis for a March pump?

'Standard View'

BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.


'Miracle 2013 style double top'

We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:

-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies
64  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoins hit 30K before the end of this year? on: March 12, 2018, 10:57:26 PM
If it couldn't hit 30k in January the chances slip dramatically as time goes on. 2018 ATH would require a 2013 style double top. Pre-requisites for this action:

New far greater wave of speculators
-> Coinbase was already the #1 app, everyone rich country has exchanges, it was on TV every night. There is simply no fresh pool of suckers, that is why the price topped out, we ran out.

New wave of big money
-> The worlds smartest and biggest investors are not going to load into a bear market, why would they buy something now for 10x when they were looking at it earlier.

Old bag holders break free
-> Everyone who got burned has to get out and get even or have sold and taken their losses. This places a huge ask on top of prices holding it down.

Seed -> Sapling -> Full Tree

^ All of these are do-able, each jump becomes more difficult. Going from .001% of the population knowing about BTC to 1% means an enormous price increase. Going from 50% to 80% is impossible, 50% of the population can't name a single senator, nothing will be able to reach them until it reach Visa level. (40 year build out requiring the coordination of all the worlds banks, massive marketing campaigns, actual utility)
65  Economy / Speculation / Re: Let me tell you exactly what's gonna happen on: March 12, 2018, 10:48:18 PM
ICO coins (99.8%)

No product
No viable business model
Issued illegally as a security, can't be traded on exchanges by normal people
Weak technology that will always be superseded by newer better coins
Distribution massively skewed to early insiders
Entirely unneeded, a decentralized trustless ledger makes no sense for any of these applications outside of coins that can offer gambling games.

Add on top massive overvaluations, (Dentacoin 2 billion?)

These need to correct to basically 0, where the bid on the shady offshore alt-only exchanges that still list them is so thin no one can offload anything without driving the price to almost 0.
66  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2018, 08:17:43 PM


Need glade experts to inline post/critique latest meme.

Guesses on next power bounce (less magnitude than Feb 6) price and volume?
67  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2018, 11:15:29 AM
Chart seemed to catch the movements pretty well, all the main thrusts were pretty close to fitting. It doesn't seem like anything has changed structurally, it's still in a glade until it looks down, and time is running out. Future options from here:

- Massive volume run up past 11, this would allow a chance at a new dead cat high and buy another 2-4 weeks

- Sideways for a few days or weeks and then crash again
68  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2018, 11:00:52 AM
https://i.imgur.com/pCvwxwS.png

TERA future visions from early Feb, do you see it as being at the pink arrow?
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 11, 2018, 10:22:32 AM
Im probably leaving the market within a week in my final distribution. AMA

My original questions were not fun, leaving is about style. NEW QUESTION DECK:


>Preferred method for swatting away the guilt of self enrichment on the backs of people who call even when shown the nuts?

>Recommended approach for those too dumb to win trading on their own yet greedy/rich enough to stick with it?

>Most reliable future indicator that ETH clowns have accepted it was all an illusion?

70  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 11, 2018, 01:54:56 AM
Im probably leaving the market within a week in my final distribution. AMA

Exchange risk was always rightly a huge factor in evaluating the return on trading the during the 11 and 13 cycles. How much risk are you assigning to Gemini, Coinbase, Kraken type of exchanges now?

A crash to 5k seems like the most certain trade you are advocating right now. Since you will have money tied up on exchanges anyway why not short on Kraken?

Your bitphysics model predicts the price will mimic 2014, like a bouncing ball? It so this next bounce would be like the current glade, with a high volume spike somewhere around <5k showing the reversal, a failed climb back to 10k, and then final bleed out to 3k (ideally)?

Do you expect your trading strategy (buying volume breakouts from dips) to continue working if another cycle appears in 202x?

What % of traders have the ability to derive alpha from first principles in crypto? How does this compare to stocks?

Is your ideal play for the next 3 years to find promising blocktree (radix?) projects and load in during strong overall crypto cynicism?

What signals will give clues about whether another BTC cycle in line with the past is starting vs BTC being finished and any pumps being limited?
71  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2018, 06:47:29 AM
its a trap its a trap its a trap 12K-14K then continue multi year bear market.

How much time is left on the clock for this? This was the super kitty bounce, 2-3 more weeks?
72  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2018, 07:40:13 PM

So far a rise to about 12K has materialized which is pretty close and there could still be another leg up. Afterwards, a slow grind like 2011, 2014. 3K would be a good final bottom for the bear market if things were to remain bullish for another ATH at the next halvening. I'm not at all sure about the long game though.



Is this a short at any point? What if the following apply:

-Other better short term trading opportunities do not exist
-No counter-party risk

The risk in this trade is that crypto winter is somehow avoided, this would take:

-Massively bullish news events.
-A fourth wave of speculation.

Both of these are long shots. Most governments are opposed to bitcoin, the ones that are not naturally move slowly and cautiously through bureaucratic institutions. Technical developments in BTC are limited and only have a small impact on its real use case (speculation). Smart money isn't loading into something that is crashing from a 10,000% run-up. The pool of dumb retail money is finite, you can go from 1% >10% of the population knowing about something. Going from 50%>80% is orders of magnitude more difficult.
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