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1  Other / Meta / Re: How to deactive my Bitcointalk account? on: September 06, 2014, 03:05:21 AM
Ty. I feel I will be of greater service when I am not talking. I've said enough. I am just repeating myself now.

I kindly ask the forum owners to respect the discipline I wish to place on myself.
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 06, 2014, 02:52:09 AM
This is my farewell post.

Quote
So there is some risk with an anonymous developer, that is a constant.

As a technical experiment, that's fine.  For timing speculation, okay.  In the competition for the natural monopoly of private liquidity, 0.00001% more risk on one side than on the other pre-determines the outcome.

There is never going to be one anonymous developer who can manage to develop an entire ecosystem that can rival Bitcoin. No altcoin will rise if it isn't open sourced. Other developers will join a successful launch and whether they choose to be anonymous or not is irrelevant. Being open source means that everything is transparent and if the developers aren't doing the correct developments, then the community-at-large will veto them by forking the project.

Thus your evident illogical fear of the lone savant anonymous developer who launches an altcoin that kicks Monero ass is justified. The multiple meanings of the prior sentence are all intended.

Take an example of XMR. If David Latapie, fluffypony or any of the others was exposed as a scammer, I would race to the exits, and so would everybody. Why? Because they knew I would, and wanted to exit first. The value of the coin would be destroyed.

If this would not happen with BBR, well, it talks more about the great divide concerning what kind of people invest in that vs. in Monero, and to each his own...

If you think you need to know personally the developers in order to make a decision about investment, then maybe you will not be the first to exit, but rather the last to enter.

I don't have time to go searching to quote my upthread post where I wrote that you apparently think of venture capital as a "gentleman's club". Probing personality not how I evaluate talent, design, and results, i.e. I don't need to like someone in order to respect their work.

For example, James' writing style and design appear to me to be discombobulated thus I have judged his work, not his personality.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: September 06, 2014, 02:51:14 AM
This is my farewell post, because I don't like the animosity that speaking my mind causes. I don't like crashing the party in my friend's house. I thought I was trying to help, but I realize I protesth too much and this costs me valuable time.

Majormax, the WWW did not have those problems. There were skeptics, but the majority were adopting it on the first time they tried it and couldn't unhook themselves from spending hours upon hours playing with the new tool (toy).

Bitcoin is a useless enigma to the majority. Sorry I am sure I am correct.

And for those who think the powers-that-be could not have planted Bitcoin, or who think that Martin Armstrong is some whacko:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/05/are-markets-manipulated-all-the-time/

Quote
...

I had more than half the equivalent of the US National Debt under contract for advisory. I think I saw things no analysts has ever dreamed of no less understood.

...

I have written that written publicly that first PhiBro silver manipulation took place in 1993. They client was Warren Buffet. The CFTC went to PhiBro demanding to know who they were buying silver for. They refused to give up Buffet’s name. The CFTC would have thrown anyone else in jail and out of business. They are owned by the big players and corrupt as hell right to the core. The CFTC simply said ok, no name, then exist the trade.



They desperately tried to get me to join the second silver manipulation with Buffet. I have written stating publicly that PhiBro’s brokers walked across the COMEX pit and showed my floor brokers Buffet’s orders and told me to join. They knew I would never trust these people for how would I know I was not the patsy to buy and they would use a another seller. I would never join them. Hence, PhiBro showed me the orders to convince me to join.



I then reported to our clients “they are back” knowing it was Buffet and PhiBro for a second time. They all got pissed-off at me even though I never mentioned names. The buying of silver was done in London. Therefore, they moved silver out of COMEX warehouses in USA and shipped to London to pretend there was a shortage to justify the manipulation. The Wall Street Journal assisted in the rally.

The manipulators with steering the buffet buying in London to avoid the 1993 problem with the CFTC. This is why AIG trading arm also set up in London. Buying silver in London justified moving it from the NY COMEX and this allowed them to get the manipulation going. COMEX supplies were reported in isolation. Moving the silver to London created the false image of a shortage to justify thye higher prices. The Wall Street Journal was used to plant the story. On September 30th 1997 the stories played headlines – “Silver Prices Hit Six-Month High On Steadily Declining Reserves, By  PALLAVI GOGOI AP-Dow Jones News Service Updated Sept. 30, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET NEW YORK — Silver futures surged to a six-month high at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, a move analysts said was triggered by steadily declining warehouse stocks. The rally was boosted by preplaced purchase orders around the $5-per-ounce level…” This was the news created for the manipulation that was constantly played out in the newspapers. The Wall Street Journal again reported on November 17, 1997, “Silver Futures Prices Leap On Hints of Tight Supplies”, and again on December 4, 1997 the Wall Street Journal from London reported “Silver Surges on Strength In Supply-Demand Status By NEIL BEHRMANN Special to The Wall Street Journal Updated Dec. 5, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET LONDON — Gold may be in the doghouse, but silver is soaring like a bird”. The reporting of shortages continued to fuel the rally. The Wall Street Journal reported again December 24, 1997 for the manipulators “Silver Futures Advance As Inventories Plunge”

The interesting point is the manipulators know that if the rally the metals, the retail goldbugs rush in and buy. They then routinely turn around and sell to them at the top and the markets crash. This standard procedure and the goldbugs buy the high every single time.

The “cluib” was pissed-off that I would not join and warned they were back manipulating silver. The got a journalist from the Wall Street Journal to try to discredit me. They told him I was short silver and trying to talk it down. The journalist accused me of this nonsense and we argued on the phone. It got quite heated and frankly I was not retail so could care less what they printed. My clients were the real deal who all knew the truth about journalism. In fact, they did not ever want me to give interviews about market forecasting to the press for their view was hey – we pay for that info.

Nevertheless, the journalist kept arrogantly taunting me and said if silver was being manipulated, then give him the name so I said fine, go ahead, let me see you print it, knowing he never would. The name I gave him was Warren Buffett. He laughed. Told me everyone knew Buffett did not trade commodities I told him that was how much he knew.

The Wall Street Journal published the article. The London newspapers were fed stories by the “Club” that I was now the largest silver trader in the world. This became all a joke to me. It demonstrated how bad the press really was. They were the pawns of the manipulators and probably didn’t even know it.

The mistake made by the “Club” by turning out the press against me, was they actually created such a worldwide story that silver was being manipulated the CFTC was forced to call me – it was public now and they had no choice. They knew I was not the source of the manipulation. Even the CFTC could look at positions and knew I was not the biggest player in silver. The CFTC then asked me, where was the manipulation taking place? I told them it was in London, out of their jurisdiction. The CFTC told me that they could pick up the phone and investigate London. I told them that they had to make that clear decision. I hung up. Never did I expect that they would really do anything. Yet, they never asked me who because the question was jurisdiction.

A few hours later, my phone rang. It was a good source in London who also was helping to monitor the “Club” actions. He told me that the Bank of England had called an immediate meeting of all silver brokers in London in the morning. I was shocked. The CFTC had made the call. But then again, I had given them no names so perhaps in their mind, this was fair game.

Within the hour, Warren Buffett made a press announcement. He admitted he had purchased $1 billion worth of silver, in London . He denied he was “manipulating” the market. Claimed the silver was a long – term investment. Everyone was shocked that Buffett was suddenly exposed as a commodity trader after all. The very next day the Wall Street Journal called me. The writer asked – “How did you know?” I told him it was my job to know! Silver thereafter declined and made new lows going into 1999. So much for Buffet’s long-term investment since he sold out.

When one trader from New York joined our firm, he called Goldman Sachs to ask about us. He has publicly stated on the record that their response was they had butted head with me many times but I usually won.

Exposing the silver manipulation trying to turn the press against me was a huge mistake. The CFTC would have never called the Bank of England just because I reported the manipulation to our clients. That was private. Exposing the issue in the press forced them to respond. My brokers on the floor were Emerald Trading. I routinely traded AGAINST the manipulators and defeated them many times. Just as the goldbugs do not like me, neither do the manipulators and it far too often seemed to coincide when they were trying to goose the markets UP – not down. Contrary to the bullshit, they need people to BUY the metals to create a pool of longs to bury. They are NOT interested in forcing a metal down to compel people to sell. That is not very profitable for they want the emotional traders who buy highs. Of course the goldbugs will say I am wrong but have never been in the same circles and some of them I question if they are not the people paid on the side by the manipulators.

There have been major manipulations of markets such as rhodium and then there was the manipulation of Platinum. I had recorded tapes and tons of documents on every manipulation. This was all seized by the court and I stood up instructing the court that these tapes Alan Cohen was demanding involved criminal activity on the part of the banks. I had it all for years. Alan Cohen then was made a board member of Goldman Sachs yet still remained as the court appointed person to run Princeton Economics. That is totally illegal and a conflict of interest. Law does not matter in New York City. (see Transcripts below).

To say I will not admit markets are manipulated is absurd. To claim they are always manipulated is impossible. Yet the real paradox is when they rally, they never seem to be manipulated. That is always real. They become manipulated only when they decline.

Not even the central banks can manipulate everything. Sure people try. But not everything. They target one market and go after that. The central banks have been trying to manage the economy to eliminate recessions. They have never succeeded even once. The central bankers know this is a confidence game just as the market manipulators. You NEED the public to move a trend. They cannot do it alone. If they were all-powerful, then Bretton Woods would never have collapsed.

There is a huge difference from a short-term manipulation within the trend like the Buffet silver move, but the market still fell to new lows with all the movement of silver and buying $1 billion in a tiny market. Where is the PROOF of systemic manipulation. It is nonsense.

The above conclusion is why I think the powers-that-be can't win against the free market. The Knowledge Age is rising and the crypto-currency that wins will be the one that engages more people in adopting the Knowledge Age. I have specific ideas of what this entails, but as the Bible says in Matthew 7 when talking about people who constantly judge others, "don't throw your pearls at swine".


For those who doubt Martin Armstrong's computer model which predicted the wise of the War Cycle years ago and targeted 2014 and recently targeted September 2014 for a turning point and November for actual escalation. Read the following and weep.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/05/russia-demands-ukrainian-troops-withdraw-us-sends-in-troops/

Now it is time for people who are capable to roll up their sleeves and stop talking in forums with people who not capable.
4  Other / Meta / How to deactive my Bitcointalk account? on: September 06, 2014, 02:50:46 AM
I have sent a private message to theymos asking him to deactive forum account, making it impossible for me to login to it and placing some sort of public message on it indicating that this is the case so that no one will expect that I will be able to reply to posts and private messages.

So far, he has not replied.

It is ridiculous that that there is not a standard feature to opt out of this forum.

I am sending theymos another private message now, asking him to deactive my account without further confirmation from me. I hope the next time I attempt to login to my account, that I am refused access.

Thank you.
5  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 01:06:05 PM
How much more obvious could it be that Bitcoin was planted in media to drive awareness of digital fiat currency, yet to see Bitcoin as unsafe and needing a government solution:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg8684511#msg8684511


It's ok to admit you're wrong, and you don't even have to call people socialist, tree hugging malthusians when you do, just fyi.

bwahaha.

You've confirmed you are a card carrying "socialist, tree hugging malthusian" dolt.

Your Knowledge will not...

When you don't have any, the salient point flies over your head. It obviously wouldn't help you even if I clarified further.

Quote
1LohorisJi...

How cute (and anti-utilitarian vain). Did you buy a license plate with your name on it too?
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: September 05, 2014, 12:06:00 PM
My dissension is that I think that curve fit is basically useless as a trading tool and is dubious as a long-term predictor.

You don't need that crutch to convince yourself to continue to hold Bitcoin, as even a log-logistic model would point to 10 bagger from here within a few years at most. But your curve fit could make you overconfident and cause you to miss out on searching for other more undervalued assets.

I've read you say you have a hard time finding anything with as much astronomical upside potential as Bitcoin.

As a reply I accept your post containing a graph how terrible fit the log-logistic model actually is and how mistaken trading signals it would have given in the past.

I am not trading (not a trader). I am trying to access rate of adoption and total end game adoption of Bitcoin and potential competitors.

The possibility of randomness means your fit is useless as a short-term trading, timing tool.

For long-term valuation prediction, we need to access the adoption.

You made one major correct decision which was to buy BTC below $10. That didn't require any curve fit, it was just obvious to anyone who was paying attention.

I even told you < $10 that you were probably correct, but that I couldn't do any speculation at that time, so it was fairly obvious to me too even I wasn't even studying Bitcoin at that time in 2012 (when you first mentioned it) and early 2013 (when you pounded the table). One of the reasons is I didn't even know how to buy it or hold it and I wasn't in a position to make mores silly process mistakes in my weakened condition (e.g. buying another 1000oz bar from Tulving that arrives with the serial # chiseled off and he refuses to do the right thing). Even you had to lose a ton of $ when you laptop was left unattended, so I was wise not to try to rush in too late and commit the usual learning mistakes.

I think you are placing too much confirmation bias on that curve fit when it appears it is not even responsible for your success. You sold at too low a price if I remember correctly in 2013 and more than one of your trading calls on price have been wrong in 2013 and 2014. So just like anyone trying to trade price, you are correct about 50% of the time.

As far as I know, the successful trades you make are arbitrages often with ladder structure so that you win with high probability. I don't think timing the price has ever been something you excel at. You do excel at buying highly underpriced assets, e.g. silver below $10 along with me.

I seriously don't see Bitcoin as extremely highly undervalued. Looks like about a 10 - 100 bagger from here. Yeah that is a good investment but it depends how long you have to wait. Whereas buying below $10 in 2012/2013 was an exceptionally undervalued purchase.

I have since learned that I don't have any particularly expert skill at trading. My skills are in identifying market trends, demographics, and size, and also in developing products to meet the market needs. I would never (again!) try to do arbitrage trades, or shorting BBR the way animorex recently described. I don't have the correct personality nor sufficient interest in it. I view it as drudgery and it impinges on my creative time which means I end up not being thorough.

Since Bitcoin is not going to take over the world, now I am searching for that incredibly undervalued one that will take over the world. Make sure you buy it cheaper than I do or invest more than I have (which won't be difficult), else I will have bragging rights Smiley
7  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin adoption slowing; Coinbase + Bitpay is enough to make Bitcoin a fiat on: September 05, 2014, 11:12:33 AM
Cross-posting...

I also see much confirmation that Bitcoin is not being adopted by most of those who hear about it

I am much more experienced than you in analyzing market demographics. I knew the following intuitively before I even Googled to verify it.

Bitcoin is nearing 6 years old. The World Wide Web was launched to the public-at-large in 1993. By the 6-7th year, the dot.com bubble had a capitalization that was 183% of the USA GDP!!!

Bitcoin is 1000x smaller phenomenon and yet the WWW is 10x bigger by now, so relatively speaking Bitcoin is 10,000x smaller.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2014/02/22/the-stock-markets-valuation-is-at-a-dangerous-115-2-of-the-gdp/

Quote
The ratio today is 115.1% of the $16 trillion GDP. In the year 2000, just before the market cracked in the dot-com bubble, the market capitalization was 183% times the GDP, according to a chart published recently.

And in 2007, just as the housing credit bubble was bursting, the ratio was 135% times the GDP. These are all times when the stock market looks overvalued.

This is basic research on relative size that anyone of your position with a thread like this should have done already.

http://www.coindesk.com/americans-think-bitcoin-is-xbox-game/

Quote
42% of Americans Know What Bitcoin is

According to a new Bloomberg poll, 42% of Americans know that bitcoin is a digital currency.

However, the majority of the US residents quizzed still don’t know what bitcoin actually is.

Those who were familiar with the cryptocurrency said they were still unsure what to make of it. In fact, many who were asked had questions for the pollsters too.

Those that do know, don’t know much

Of the people who had heard of bitcoin, some were hesitant to use it themselves, either in a business or personal capacity.

Olga Ruff, a 62-year-old businesswoman, said she was unlikely to start accepting bitcoin in her small jewellery shop. “What use would it be for me?” she said, adding: “I’m not sure what the value of it is, and what I’d be able to exchange it for.”

Jeremy Labadie, an internet security specialist, said he would have to consider his options further before making a purchase: “I don’t necessarily know if it’s something I would think about using.”

However Labadie also admitted that he had considered buying some bitcoins as a long-term investment.

Other respondents said they heard about bitcoin through mainstream news coverage. In turn, this had given them an idea of the currency’s drawbacks as well as bitcoin-related scams and crimes.

...

Bitcoin: Xbox game or iPhone app?

More than 1,000 people took part in the poll and some answers were rather amusing.

A total of 46% said they do not know what bitcoin is. Suprisingly, 6% of participants thought bitcoin was an Xbox game, while another 6% were convinced it was an iOS app on the iPhone.

Unsurprisingly, the poll found that people under the age of 35 were more likely to know a thing or two about bitcoin.


How much more clear can it be that most people have no use for Bitcoin? See below...

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112135/the-ethnic-group-that-knows-the-most-about-bitcoin-is-not-who-you-think-it-is

Quote
The average Bitcoin user used to be a non-religious male with libertarian/anarcho-capitalist leanings, 31.2 years of age, with a job and a full-time relationship, according to a self-selecting community survey done last year by tech/economics blog Simulacrum.

...

Hispanic-Americans were by far the ethnic group most likely to say they would consider using Bitcoin themselves: 23% answered they were “very likely,” compared to 9% from African-Americans and “others” and just 5% from whites.

Though it may be presumptuous to draw definitive conclusions from the survey, a clear inference about the results may be that Hispanic-Americans have begun to pick up on Bitcoin’s exciting implication for the remittance market: a low-cost method for diaspora members to send money back home.

Bitcoin-based remittance companies have been exploding especially in Africa, where it’s been estimated that people are losing US$1.8 billion annually to remittance fees.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/101523567

Quote
More we know bitcoin, the less we trust it: Poll

Nearly half of all Americans know what bitcoin is but most don't trust the virtual currency, according to a new survey.

Just 13 percent of all respondents to a Harris Interactive poll said they prefer bitcoin over gold. Bitcoin has been embroiled in a series of controversies over the past few months, including inappropriate use and the shuttering of its highest-profile exchange.

Those negative headlines have taken their toll: The survey, conducted on behalf of financial innovation platform Yodlee, found that the more people know about bitcoin the less they trust it. People in the more tech-savvy regions in the West were better acquainted with bitcoin than those in other regions, but only 7 percent said they would invest in it over gold.

The cryptocurrency's biggest fan base: Men in the 18-to-34 age group, 22 percent of whom said they would choose bitcoin over gold.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: September 05, 2014, 11:02:19 AM
I also see much confirmation that Bitcoin is not being adopted by most of those who hear about it

I am much more experienced than you in analyzing market demographics. I knew the following intuitively before I even Googled to verify it.

Bitcoin is nearing 6 years old. The World Wide Web was launched to the public-at-large in 1993. By the 6-7th year, the dot.com bubble had a capitalization that was 183% of the USA GDP!!!

Bitcoin is 1000x smaller phenomenon and yet the WWW is 10x bigger by now, so relatively speaking Bitcoin is 10,000x smaller.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2014/02/22/the-stock-markets-valuation-is-at-a-dangerous-115-2-of-the-gdp/

Quote
The ratio today is 115.1% of the $16 trillion GDP. In the year 2000, just before the market cracked in the dot-com bubble, the market capitalization was 183% times the GDP, according to a chart published recently.

And in 2007, just as the housing credit bubble was bursting, the ratio was 135% times the GDP. These are all times when the stock market looks overvalued.

This is basic research on relative size that anyone of your position with a thread like this should have done already.

I suppose we should also include all the money invested in Bitcoin-related public companies. But I doubt it exceeds Bitcoin's market cap, so my point remains in spades.

http://www.coindesk.com/americans-think-bitcoin-is-xbox-game/

Quote
42% of Americans Know What Bitcoin is

According to a new Bloomberg poll, 42% of Americans know that bitcoin is a digital currency.

However, the majority of the US residents quizzed still don’t know what bitcoin actually is.

Those who were familiar with the cryptocurrency said they were still unsure what to make of it. In fact, many who were asked had questions for the pollsters too.

Those that do know, don’t know much

Of the people who had heard of bitcoin, some were hesitant to use it themselves, either in a business or personal capacity.

Olga Ruff, a 62-year-old businesswoman, said she was unlikely to start accepting bitcoin in her small jewellery shop. “What use would it be for me?” she said, adding: “I’m not sure what the value of it is, and what I’d be able to exchange it for.”

Jeremy Labadie, an internet security specialist, said he would have to consider his options further before making a purchase: “I don’t necessarily know if it’s something I would think about using.”

However Labadie also admitted that he had considered buying some bitcoins as a long-term investment.

Other respondents said they heard about bitcoin through mainstream news coverage. In turn, this had given them an idea of the currency’s drawbacks as well as bitcoin-related scams and crimes.

...

Bitcoin: Xbox game or iPhone app?

More than 1,000 people took part in the poll and some answers were rather amusing.

A total of 46% said they do not know what bitcoin is. Suprisingly, 6% of participants thought bitcoin was an Xbox game, while another 6% were convinced it was an iOS app on the iPhone.

Unsurprisingly, the poll found that people under the age of 35 were more likely to know a thing or two about bitcoin.


How much more clear can it be that most people have no use for Bitcoin? See below...

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112135/the-ethnic-group-that-knows-the-most-about-bitcoin-is-not-who-you-think-it-is

Quote
The average Bitcoin user used to be a non-religious male with libertarian/anarcho-capitalist leanings, 31.2 years of age, with a job and a full-time relationship, according to a self-selecting community survey done last year by tech/economics blog Simulacrum.

...

Hispanic-Americans were by far the ethnic group most likely to say they would consider using Bitcoin themselves: 23% answered they were “very likely,” compared to 9% from African-Americans and “others” and just 5% from whites.

Though it may be presumptuous to draw definitive conclusions from the survey, a clear inference about the results may be that Hispanic-Americans have begun to pick up on Bitcoin’s exciting implication for the remittance market: a low-cost method for diaspora members to send money back home.

Bitcoin-based remittance companies have been exploding especially in Africa, where it’s been estimated that people are losing US$1.8 billion annually to remittance fees.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/101523567

Quote
More we know bitcoin, the less we trust it: Poll

Nearly half of all Americans know what bitcoin is but most don't trust the virtual currency, according to a new survey.

Just 13 percent of all respondents to a Harris Interactive poll said they prefer bitcoin over gold. Bitcoin has been embroiled in a series of controversies over the past few months, including inappropriate use and the shuttering of its highest-profile exchange.

Those negative headlines have taken their toll: The survey, conducted on behalf of financial innovation platform Yodlee, found that the more people know about bitcoin the less they trust it. People in the more tech-savvy regions in the West were better acquainted with bitcoin than those in other regions, but only 7 percent said they would invest in it over gold.

The cryptocurrency's biggest fan base: Men in the 18-to-34 age group, 22 percent of whom said they would choose bitcoin over gold.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: September 05, 2014, 10:19:29 AM
Thank You Peter R! I will add this model to the toolkit when I try to explain to people why sometimes (2013) it rises 100x and sometimes (2012) hardly at all. Randomness.

Randomness is not the only possible explanation. Log-logistic adoption is another possibility for a declining rate of appreciation.

So it is not sufficient to say, "the model must be my fit, and randomness explains why the fit is off this year".

The burden of proof is on the "fit" that fits the data less (despite being more complicated), i.e. yours.


(I seriously think you are wasting your precious time, trying to argue with me about statistics. Tell me when I do likewise re: your strong point.)

Define 'more complicated' mathematically? Would it be what you are more familiar with?

Overfit is a problem if the curve fit or regression model is not correct.

I am trying to help both of us avoid confirmation bias error.

Even the concept of fit has a plurality of models.

How are you so certain that Bitcoin adoption has not slowed?? You can say it is just a lull due to randomness, but how can you be so confident of that? I am trying to be objective. I see evidence it is slowing. It might be randomness, but it also might not be. I also see much confirmation that Bitcoin is not being adopted by most of those who hear about it, because there are enormous barriers to adoption.

P.S. I nearly aced my Theory of Probability and Statistics course 30 years ago. But correct I don't use it in practice. But that distinction seems to be irrelevant in this case, because we have to choose the correct model before we can apply statistical discipline. Or we need some very higher order statistical methods to try to determine which model is correct.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: September 05, 2014, 09:47:26 AM
Thank You Peter R! I will add this model to the toolkit when I try to explain to people why sometimes (2013) it rises 100x and sometimes (2012) hardly at all. Randomness.

Randomness is not the only possible explanation. Log-logistic adoption is another possibility for a declining rate of price appreciation given  Peter R's model correlating adoption to market cap and given the market cap is growing.

So it is not sufficient to say, "the model must be my fit, and randomness explains why the fit is off this year".
11  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 05:39:36 AM
That their top-down organization requires it doesn't make it any less of a debacle.

China will be the center of the mainstream financial world according to Armstrong's model.

My model is that represents the dying mainstream NWO which will drag down hordes with it. Or the combination of both including what I write below.

I think there will be an alternative economy of crypto-currency and a fledging Knowledge Age.

I refuse to fall into the abyss of China's top-down model.

I see their top-down model might be cracking, e.g. manufacturers can sell direct to me via aliexpress.com, dhgate.com, etc.. Amazons of the east are rising.

"Decentralized transaction coins..."
12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 05:31:38 AM
tax incentives and subsidies.

It is a calculated and intentional economic inefficiency, which is deemed worth the cost, in order that the CCP plenum may avoid getting their heads lopped by people with nothing to lose because all of their progeny died of autoimmune reaction to inhaling coal ash.
The poly solar business will die, but only when a sufficient amount of economically productive, greener generation cap is available to provide an reasonable level of insurance against such an outcome, or the reins of power are seized by a new dynasty with post-urban social engineering agenda.

Sorry to do this to you, but you didn't check your facts:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China#Recent_history

Total installed capacity in 2013 was 1247 GW.

Solar power capacity was 18 GW.

Again I repeat, China's Solar Debacle.
13  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 05:19:17 AM
Something about the copy always makes my mind rebel if I try to read it.  It's like trying to look into your foveal blind spot.

I believe it is very likely indicative of the headroom of what they can achieve. As a programmer, I don't expect more from them than duct tape and Popsicle sticks (more or less, they might get lucky to stumble onto some feature but not enough holistically to bring about the revolution I want).



I want to buy future reserve currency, stack it high, and hold it long.  Anything else is just a distraction.

Clarity is essential.

Hopefully soon you will have it.

If you are trying to force it prematurely, that is an error.
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 05:07:15 AM
If you are not guarding your independence as a human with extreme paranoid caution, then you are almost certainly already a pawn.

The revolution begins with a spark and rallying cry such as Paul Revere's famous call-to-action.

You've just made such a statement. Risto has a lot of pull if he chooses to use.

Btw, I am not bearish on Bitcoin as a speculation. That is not what I am talking about about. Bitcoin is a place for large capital to sit. I am talking about fledging sparks, e.g. Monero (but not only that one).
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 04:55:20 AM
Risto trying to pick the winner reminds me of the government agencies trying to pick the winning technologies, e.g. China provided incentives to push into solar and now solar didn't pan out and going bankrupt.

Not sure if really poor analogy or just spewing falsehoods?

Quote
China Will Install More Solar This Year Than The U.S. Ever Has
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/08/3468974/china-solar-capacity-booming/

Quote
China was responsible for almost one-fifth of total global investment, spending $52 billion on renewable energy last year. The United States was close behind with investments of $51 billion...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/07/27/china-leads-the-world-in-renewable-energy-investment/

China has a terrible pollution problem, and they are taking some strides at least to wrangle the problem in the longterm. They also manage to import so many solar panels into the USA that many manufacturers here are crying "uncle", despite installing more PV capacity than the USA has in their entire history in the same year. Not sure how you figure solar "didn't pan out" for them.

You are fooled as any good socialist, tree hugger Malthusian would be.

https://www.google.com/search?q=china's+solar+debacle

In one word, subsidies.

In more words, tax incentives and subsidies.
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 04:42:48 AM
AnonyMint you think there will be a one world government who is just dictating the supply of money of all other countries, now that is nuts and something for the tinfoil hat party.

You make insulting accusations while all the evidence points to it is happening at an accelerated pace.

Of course the powers-that-be ratchet the changes gradually and in a myriad of misdirections so that you are fooled from seeing the Big Picture of how it is all coming together.

    First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Socialist.

    Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

    Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
    Because I was not a Jew.

    Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.


Some governments will soon buy in and start mining BTC themselves and the whole fiat pyramid falls down.

Down into centralized control over Bitcoin. The fixed money supply is a huge problem, because once it is tied up, then it is controlled. Mining is already controlled by the government since they can regulate Ghash.io (legislatively or executive powers) when they are ready (or serve them a national security gag order to be more expedient and obscured).

There was already one country deciding to adopt Bitcoin, brick after brick is falling.

You perfectly fit the role that was assigned to you by the powers-that-be (meaning your mind is enslaved):

1. Plant Bitcoin to condition the people to like "digital currencies", garnish the glossy-eyed devotion of the high-tech libertarians, and to give governments an excuse to make it illegal and create draconian replacements in their jurisdictions.



Bitcoin is already the perfect gov coin, because it helps with transparency of the government to the people.

You are arguing for my point not against.

I am also very confident Bitcoin will always be the business and gov coin, because with this public ledger everyone who wants to have a good reputation must be as open as possible about the intentions.

Hahaha you think people love to be open in business and personal life.

What planet do you hail from?

imagine one day that you cannot go to ex. blockchain.info and search a Bitcoin transaction?

Anonymity doesn't require that.
17  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Dark Enlightenment on: September 05, 2014, 04:20:33 AM
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/10/technology/bitcoin-jpmorgan/

The difference between digital banking accounts we have now and the digital currencies, is each citizen has to register for a wallet. One wallet for one citizen. Like your Social Security Number in the USA.

Your wallet can them be moved around to different banks.

Digital currencies is a code word for complete government tracking and total loss of bank privacy.  Your bank will still hold your balance, but every transaction gets cleared through government servers.

As Armstrong said, Ecuador is the trial run for what is coming to every country in the world after 2015.75 when the global economy turns down (which will provide the excuses and justifications for the changes along with the bailins and need to lockup every person's balances).

Bitcoin was planted to condition to world to "digital currencies"...

Quite possibly.  I don t think one has to invoke obscure conspiracies for that.  Financial privacy is already so cumbersome and costly to achieve that most people will rather just give up on it.  It is like trying to pay for rent and groceries with gold dust in order to avoid dealing with "evil fiat".

So far the Westerners would not yet agree to give up the financial privacy of being able to sign up a bank account where ever they wish, even in jurisdictions that have bank secrecy, e.g. the Philippines where I am and also apparently Ecuador. They are boiling frogs and don't realize what is going to hit them post 2015.75.

So the powers-that-be have numerous strategies for how they are breaking down that resistance in order to bring us to total government control:

1. Plant Bitcoin to condition the people to like "digital currencies", garnish the glossy-eyed devotion of the high-tech libertarians, and to give governments an excuse to make it illegal and create draconian replacements in their jurisdictions.

2. 19 muslims on camels, 9/11, Patriot Act, then FATCA.

3. Bring bank accounts of interest in bank secrecy jurisdictions into the risk mgmt department, and have them send out an SMS with all transaction details on every transaction asking if this was an authorized tx (I know anecdotally for a fact this happening).

4. Pile up the debt so high, repeal Glass-Steagal so banks can bankrupt themselves on speculation, so then the only solution is to 'restructure' (bailin, nationalize, confiscate by any other name) society's savings and pensions. This will require numbered accounts for each person in order to dole out "daily living allowances".

Etc..


You obviously hope that Monero or some other cryptocoin will allow people to retain financial privacy without joining some savage tribe and subsisting on berries and monkey meat.  Good luck with that.  Need I tell you that I am rather skeptical about the idea?

The only hope is distribution as a currency to the developing world has to begin pronto. Bitcoin isn't even close because it is centralization and rich boys investment pump paradigm (where the participants are deluded into think it is a currency paradigm).

I will not repeat again my past posts which reveal some ideas for solutions because I am losing time.

Crypto currencies function by no decree. They are decentrally produced.

Bitcoin is centrally produced for mining (Ghash.io + any other pool have > 50% of hashrate) and protocol development.

With the coming ETFs and other offchain entities, I posit it will soon by top-controlled for investment and transactions too.

Raise your hindquarters in the air for some Butthurtcoin.
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 04:14:15 AM
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/10/technology/bitcoin-jpmorgan/

The difference between digital banking accounts we have now and the digital currencies, is each citizen has to register for a wallet. One wallet for one citizen. Like your Social Security Number in the USA.

Your wallet can them be moved around to different banks.

Digital currencies is a code word for complete government tracking and total loss of bank privacy.  Your bank will still hold your balance, but every transaction gets cleared through government servers.

As Armstrong said, Ecuador is the trial run for what is coming to every country in the world after 2015.75 when the global economy turns down (which will provide the excuses and justifications for the changes along with the bailins and need to lockup every person's balances).

Bitcoin was planted to condition to world to "digital currencies"...

Quite possibly.  I don t think one has to invoke obscure conspiracies for that.  Financial privacy is already so cumbersome and costly to achieve that most people will rather just give up on it.  It is like trying to pay for rent and groceries with gold dust in order to avoid dealing with "evil fiat".

So far the Westerners would not yet agree to give up the financial privacy of being able to sign up a bank account where ever they wish, even in jurisdictions that have bank secrecy, e.g. the Philippines where I am and also apparently Ecuador. They are boiling frogs and don't realize what is going to hit them post 2015.75.

So the powers-that-be have numerous strategies for how they are breaking down that resistance in order to bring us to total government control:

1. Plant Bitcoin to condition the people to like "digital currencies", garnish the glossy-eyed devotion of the high-tech libertarians, and to give governments an excuse to make it illegal and create draconian replacements in their jurisdictions.

2. 19 muslims on camels, 9/11, Patriot Act, then FATCA.

3. Bring bank accounts of interest in bank secrecy jurisdictions into the risk mgmt department, and have them send out an SMS with all transaction details on every transaction asking if this was an authorized tx (I know anecdotally for a fact this happening).

4. Pile up the debt so high, repeal Glass-Steagal so banks can bankrupt themselves on speculation, so then the only solution is to 'restructure' (bailin, nationalize, confiscate by any other name) society's savings and pensions. This will require numbered accounts for each person in order to dole out "daily living allowances".

Etc..


You obviously hope that Monero or some other cryptocoin will allow people to retain financial privacy without joining some savage tribe and subsisting on berries and monkey meat.  Good luck with that.  Need I tell you that I am rather skeptical about the idea?

The only hope is distribution as a currency to the developing world has to begin pronto. Bitcoin isn't even close because it is centralization and rich boys investment pump paradigm (where the participants are deluded into think it is a currency paradigm).

I will not repeat again my past posts which reveal some ideas for solutions because I am losing time.

Crypto currencies function by no decree. They are decentrally produced.

Bitcoin is centrally produced for mining (Ghash.io + any other pool have > 50% of hashrate) and protocol development.

With the coming ETFs and other offchain entities, I posit it will soon by top-controlled for investment and transactions too.

Raise your hindquarters in the air for some Butthurtcoin.
19  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 03:55:55 AM
They lean on the corporations when use of any competing currency becomes popular. For example gaming currencies (e.g. QQQ) were squelched this way.

QQ tokens had limited use cases and were centralized, issued by QQ company. How do you squelch crypto 2.0? Throw people in jail for using it? Ban Internet? These are possibilities, of course. It's all high risk investment and wild west. We'll see how it unfolds.

Decentralization and scaling are key points.
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 03:45:53 AM
We don't have much time remaining. We are dicking around.

Please re-iterate your actionable plan for people who don't have a particular skillset and aren't particularly wealthy but belong to the middle class and are fortunate enough to read you.

My opinion is the future hangs on what the hackers can create and or the whales can seed fund. The middle class is dependent on our success or failure. Once you put the tools out there, the middle class and get involved in finding a myriad of uses for them. There are 1000s of really great programmers who are no where near the altcoin scene. I suppose because it such a crapshoot. It is too new and crypto is outside the domain knowledge of most programmers (including myself a year ago, I had to learn fast but at least I have some math background to draw on).

There are not nurturing venture capitalists investing in the block chain experiments, e.g. Idealab. As far as I know with the exception of Ethereum, the venture capital is pouring into Bitcoin related startups only.

My only plea to all readers is recognize (or disagree) that Bitcoin is not going to set us free as we had hoped. So please remain open minded. And hope some hackers are willing to risk everything (such as myself receiving no income for years and surviving on the fumes remnants of my past savings).

I think I am aware of what all other capable developers are doing in the altcoin scene. I have commented already on all of them in this thread except eMunie. I haven't looked at eMunie in a long-time, but when I was evaluating the Decrits proposed design last year I briefly looked at the vague specification of eMunie and I am fairly certain is going no where fast. Sorry to eMunie fans, that is my technical opinion. If you want details you can do Google search on "site:bitcointalk.org AnonyMint eMunie". Essentially PoS delegation strategies devolve to reputation, centralization, and fiat.
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