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301  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Exchange volume is more decentralized now then ever ... on: May 22, 2013, 11:16:29 PM
The OP was 24 hours.  Sorry it wasn't clear.  I just copied the data from bitcointy.  Also yes bitocinty feed isn't complete there are always some exchanges not included.

You can see the reduction over time.

Code:
Timespan   Total volume    MtGox Share
 6 months  19,302,999 BTC  77.72%
  30 days   4,139,154 BTC  75.87%
   7 days     383,426 BTC  71.17%
 24 hours      37,135 BTC  56.87%

While volume is down across most exchanges, the reduction to MtGox has been outsized.  A comparison of Bitstamp to MtGox.

Bitstamp
318,010 BTC in prior 30 days = 10,600 BTC average per day
6,718 BTC in prior 24 hrs
37% reduction in volume over prior 24 hrs compared to 30 day average

MtGox
3,140,537 BTC in prior 30 days = 104,684 BTC average per day
21,120 BTC in prior 24 hrs
80% reduction in volume over prior 24 hrs compared to 30 day average


Interesting...  It does seem like looking at one 24 hour period isn't sufficient data, though.  A full week or more at 56% would be more telling, especially if it was a week with higher volume overall.

Cherry picking one 24 hour period would get you an F- in Stats 101.

At best, one can maybe argue...
Gox Public Exchange share down about 5% to low 70s.

We need 1000s of small exchanges...
We need a generic Open Source exchange web site you can put up in 24 hours...
That can share all or part of Order Books with peers.

We don't need BIG exchanges run out of Silicon Valley...
We need lots of small to medium ones spread around the globe.
302  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Ripple Giveaway! on: May 22, 2013, 04:54:31 PM
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303  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: MtGox spot price no longer "real" price of BTC? on: May 22, 2013, 01:24:07 AM
If your theory of btce price being lower due to difficulty in moving money in and out, then shouldn't gox price be lower, not higher since a lifeline was just eliminated?
It's harder to get money in BTC-e than out.
If case of Mtgox it's quite opposite. Easy to deposit, harder to withdraw.

The only pair you could do decent volume is Gox/BTC-E...
Where GOX is $4.50 higher right now.

To arb 100 size of BTC which is only $450 gross profit...
You would probably need to have at least $50,000 on each exchange...
And be wiring amounts near reportable thresholds...
And absorb time premium and counter-party risk...

What fun.
304  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: is bitcoin trading like stock trading, forex, someone in middle or neither? on: May 22, 2013, 01:07:27 AM
The kind of "Forex trading" you reference is pure Mook Skinning.

All serious Forex traders trade on ECNs...
Where the Order Book is comprised of all MM and Customer orders...
And the fees are $2.50 per $100,000 or less on volume...
(Googling "Forex ECN" can't be too hard...
Though a lot of Mook Skinners LIE and call themselves an ECN).

It's actually more complicated than that; even pure ECN brokers have an internal order-book which they match purely in-house as a market-maker. Of course they also have the ability to place your orders with a real liquidity provider, but whether they do that or not is a decision they take and not one you can control.

A good rule of thumb here is that any system for trading on a market which uses a read-only price-feed (as all forex brokers do AKAIK) is more akin to betting than trading, because you are playing against a closed system which cannot be altered by your own trades.

A real exchange is a totally different beast, you can affect the price and they don't care whether you win your trades or lose.

At the end of the day there are good forex brokers and bad ones, but the scope for them to be bad is very large due to the nature of brokers and the price feed.

My main business is trading stocks (about 500 trades/day)...
But I trade Forex every day on IB's IDEALPRO (maybe 10 trades/day)...
Which is what I call an ECN = "real exchange"...
My Limit Order has the same status as all other orders...
It becomes the bid/ask if its the best ...
And, of course, IB or anyone can fill it at my Limit...
Plus I probably get price improvement 20% of the time.

By contrast, Mook Skinners maintain a market with about a 2 pip spread...
So these unfortunate souls are paying $20.00 per $100,000...
Which is > 10 times what traders on ECNs pay...
A rate that dooms you to go broke eventually.
305  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: is bitcoin trading like stock trading, forex, someone in middle or neither? on: May 21, 2013, 02:24:51 AM
So with retail forex "trading" you don't get to own the currency, plus I've read you automatically get leverage up to 200:1, there are no brokerage fees, the brokers/banks make their money through the large spreads.

Which doesn't sound much like bitcoin trading at all. Sounds more like you are just betting on which way currency pairs will go, and the "bookmaker" makes money directly off all the retail traders through the spread. (And the leverage is there to get the money back quicker from the punters?!?)

OK, now I understand why trading btc looked more like stock trading than (retail) forex trading. And I don't think I'll get into forex  Cheesy

The kind of "Forex trading" you reference is pure Mook Skinning.

All serious Forex traders trade on ECNs...
Where the Order Book is comprised of all MM and Customer orders...
And the fees are $2.50 per $100,000 or less on volume...
(Googling "Forex ECN" can't be too hard...
Though a lot of Mook Skinners LIE and call themselves an ECN).

BTC trading is similar to trading a very volatile, manipulated, junior stock...
But worse, because you have non-trivial counter party risk...
And one cannot be hedged unless one ventures onto dodgy BTC derivative exchanges...
Which is probably worse than being unhedged.

You pretty much have to believe BTC is going a lot higher to trade it.
306  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Foundation, regulation... It's Dot.Com vu all over again on: May 20, 2013, 02:48:51 PM
The only thing that bothers me, as a non-US citizen, is how US-centric all this discussion is.

This.

How did Bitcoin become centralized in Silicon Valley?
In the country most hostile to BTC?

307  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My thoughts from the Bitcoin Conference on: May 20, 2013, 02:42:34 PM
Why does the government have to fear Bitcoin?

Nice write-up...
As expected lots of great ideas without considering real world implications.

The Government fears milk...
And regulates it up and down the food chain...
So your 80 yo Grandma doesn't get poisoned.

308  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Identity of Satoshi Nakamoto is known on: May 19, 2013, 08:23:10 PM
This guy apparently has zero programming experience.

Are you sure? Apparently he actually does know c++...


The Fast Company piece got this part right:

"Nakamoto would have to be "a world-class programmer"
with "a deep understanding" of C++ the programming language
and an extensive background in cryptography, economics,
and peer-to-peer networking."

"Knows C++" is a million miles from "world-class programmer"...
Which requires a 5-10 year obsession...
Plus all of the other expertise listed...
Not to mention business experience to structure a First Adopter Ponzi scheme.

But I'm sure if Nakamoto exists... he is 35-45.

309  Economy / Economics / Re: Hoarding Vs. Spending on: May 19, 2013, 01:31:09 PM
The problem is that buying them is a hassle.

Until the Exchange Problem is addressed and alleviated...
Human nature is to hoard scare, hard to acquire commodities.

310  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin Foundation is TOXIC and must dissolve, plus a call to action on: May 19, 2013, 01:20:48 PM
+Jerry Brito and +Declan McCullagh Yes, the exchanges are a vulnerable point, almost a "systempunkt"...

As +Nick Weaver alludes to, Bitcoin really is fundamentally incompatible with the pharaonic pyramids of the legacy banking system...

The [financial and litigation] conflicts of interest among directors...

Who's with me?


How exactly did Bitcoin control become centralized and Made in America...
The single most dangerous jurisdiction for BTC?

Why are open source decentralized exchanges not a top priority?
Why should BTC 100% depend on small businessmen rolling their own exchange sites?

And why is it always BTC to Fiat?

Fiat is owned by Central Banks. You don't "own" that dollar in your pocket.

It should be BTC to commodity (gold, gasoline, beads, whatever)...
There is infinitely less regulation of commodities...
And BTC (as of 2013), has the velocity of a commodity, not a currency.
311  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Centralization Will Bring Down Bitcoin on: May 17, 2013, 02:10:03 AM

The whole point is that the people and institutions which derive their power from Fiat see Bitcoin as a threat to their order. The recent Homeland Security action is a testament to this. To think that Bitcoin can be a "legitimate" currency alongside the US Dollar is ignoring the reality of the situation. Bitcoin is an upfront assault on the legitimacy of the international Fiat system. Services like Ripple are destined to go the way of any service which proposes to establish Bitcoin functionally within the existing Fiat frameworks. Bitcoin is not meant to live alongside Fiat. It is meant to kill it. With extreme prejudice.

You've just made about 1,000 points in 5 paragraphs...
The last being an overthrow of the US Government...
You forgot about Bitcoin Island and sex slaves for everyone.

The general idea for decentralized fiat transfer...
Is actually workable if implemented properly...
But this discussion is crazy unfocused and a dead end. 
312  Economy / Speculation / Re: A simplistic view of what is going on on: May 15, 2013, 09:05:24 PM
Price has only gone down 5% because bitcoin users are realizing that Gox dying a slow, painful death would be possibly the best thing that could happen to bitcoin.

Many people don't quit drugs until they stop hanging out with their drug addict friends.

So, Gox dies, bitcoin gets stronger. The end.

I agree with everything...
Except one day Gox dies instantly like Full Tilt Poker.

The DOJ took 3 years preparing to take out FTP...
$1 billon BTC Cap is a rounding error to the US Govt...
And offshore gaming/entertainment sites are not exactly high priority.

And I kinda like your drug analogy...
But I prefer to use the Stockholm Syndrome analogy...
All Early Adopters with large holdings are being held hostage by Gox...
And are defending their captors.

But Bitcoin gets stronger minus Gox...
Just like poker is unstoppable minus FTP.

313  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox is an unlicensed money exchanger dealing in "crypto-currency." on: May 15, 2013, 08:54:32 PM
Proper MSB licensing doesn't seem prohibitively expensive, other bitcoin exchanges have obtained it. The seizure has not provided any basis to conclude that the gov would shut down an exchange, other than failure to have the proper MSB license. Therefore this is very good news because more exchanges will be properly licensed in the future, and so far the focus of gov regulations and enforcement is narrow and does not appear to threaten bitcoin infrastructure or liquidity.


Some comprehensive legal advice:

http://moneytransmitterlicense.blogspot.ca/

An interesting "payments startup" site:

http://www.paymentsbusinessideas.com/

I still think Bitcoin and MSG are a Catch-22...
Sure, you can get all appropriate licensing...
But they will eventually come after BTC itself...
All roads lead offshore.
314  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Warrant against Dwolla and Bitcoin: The Beginning of the End of Bitcoin on: May 15, 2013, 06:53:04 PM
Some VC-backed exchange with fancy lawyers will inevitably emerge with the proper MSB licenses.

This times 1,000,000...
And they will run a proper exchange.

This is just a prelude to criminal charges against Principals of MtGox...
It couldn't happen to a sleazier bunch of people...
Just a replay of Full Tilt Poker taken over by Poker Stars.

Here are the laws they broke...
It's not about filling out a form incorrectly:

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1960

This is the judge that signed the warrant:

http://msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/39fed/04usmag/html/msa13415.html

Virtually everything I've ever heard from MtGox = BS...
Like they REALLY first knew of this by "reading it on the internet"?

IMO, the Bitcoin Universe will be a lot better off without them...
These assholes have done everything possible to CENTRALIZE Bitcoin...
Not to mention releasing Ripple to replace BTC.

Many here have Stockholm Syndrome because Gox has you by the nuts.

Please support the smaller exchanges...
1000s of small exchanges distributed world wide = decentralization.
315  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Mt. Gox Dwolla account frozen by DHS on: May 15, 2013, 02:15:51 AM
Got an answer to my e-mail.  They said the transaction from yesterday will go through but no more will from now on.  They did say no other customers were affected which sounds like campbx would still work.

Seriously, why can't CampBX deal with a little bump in traffic...
It has to be the slowest, most inefficient web site I use...
Both Virtex and Liberty have been zipping along 100% up time today.
316  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If the US gov wanted to stop funds going into gox... on: May 15, 2013, 02:05:48 AM
This leads me to think that they are just trying to control the ways you put funds into and out of gox.

Nevertheless, it also should be taken seriously as a dry run because, if someday a coordinated attack on Bitcoin does come, it will likely have similar characteristics, except executed simultaneously at all key chokepoints worldwide including, guaranteed, a joint operation with Japanese authorities in Tokyo to shut down Gox itself.


The US DOJ would simply file criminal charges...
Against the CEO and principals of MtGox...
Exactly the way it was done against Full Tilt Poker in 2011.

MtGox would be shut down in 5 minutes...
And it would take years to sort it out.

The DOJ spent 3 years investigating FTP...
And have probably been investigating MtGox for a while...
Whether the charges would hold up in court is unimportant...
But they would center on the 1000s of US Customers.

That's why it's important to have small exchanges distributed globally.
317  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can Bitcoin be displaced by another mined coin? on: May 15, 2013, 01:48:49 AM
Alt-coins don't necessarily compete with Bitcoin, but rather strengthen cryptocurrency in general. I doubt Bitcoin will ever completely be replaced (where it disappears), not without some fundamental flaw discovered an alternative can solve or some superior feature Bitcoin can't emulate.

The internet is NEVER about being the best... it's about:

(1)  Being easy to use.

(2)  Though imperfect...
Connecting with humans on some "lowest common denominator" level.

(3)  Rapidly building a critical mass.

That's why BitTorrent crushed Napster...
YouTube crushed MySpace...
And strange, simple Twitter just freaking exploded.

Ripple is incomprehensible...
So it's not a threat to Bitcoin...
And the alt-coins don't have the "critical mass" BTC does.

In the above context, Bitcoin looks good.

http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/11/with-the-napster-of-banking-round-the-corner-bring-out-your-popcorn/
318  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Dwolla no longer allowed to deal with Mt. Gox? (DHS Shut them down?) on: May 15, 2013, 12:22:11 AM
People step back from the keyboard and take a deep breath.


1) Dwolla is not shutdown

2) MTGOX is not shut down

3) DHS didn't seize anything, they simply stopped Dwolla from doing business with GOX


The bottom line is that you cannot convert BTC into USD via Dwolla, that's all.

If converting BTC to USD is your goal there are still quite a few better alternatives than Dwolla in the first place.


~BCX~

This = 15% plunge in BTC = buying opportunity
319  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best way for me to trade safely, on: May 12, 2013, 06:54:40 PM
Anyone else noticed bter.com is off line now?

I'm about to give up, as bitfloor still owes me money.

-v

There you go, it's back up.

These small exchanges have a HUGE inventive to stay in business...
Because it's a lot of work to get an exchange site running smoothly...
But once you reach critical mass = great cash flow.

What I have trouble understanding...
Is how Virtex is growing rapidly while charging 2-3% for most traders...
While the industry standard is in the 0.5% range.
320  Economy / Speculation / Re: Government Regulation owns Bitcoin on: May 11, 2013, 06:46:12 PM
I think that really depends on how useful people find bitcoin. Downloading/uploading movies via bittorent is illegal almost everywhere in some form or another, yet the audience and userbase of bittorent only continues to grow. Of course there isn't any zuckerberg who is the billionaire poster boy for creating it/selling it, but that doesn't stop it from being enormously useful for hundreds of millions of people (I have no idea how many).

It can be the same for bitcoin. Illegal or regulated, but extremely useful anyway. The black market remember is worth trillions and trillions of dollars. Regulation doesn't change that.

So you don't think MAbtc's argument (a few posts up) carries some weight?  Bitcoin threatens the very core of governments -- collecting taxes & issuing currency.  Of course governments will  react if Bitcoin makes any noticeable mark on fiat economy.  Forgot who said "Give me control over a nation's money, and I care not who makes its laws," but he summed things up pretty well.  There was pretty sound reasoning behind not wanting Bitcoin to hit the limelights so early in the game.

Satoshi understood EXACTLY THIS (and begged people to keep a low profile).

Repeat:

ALL government power flows from currency and taxation...
It does NOT flow from controlling Hollywood movies on the internet.

But noooooooooo...
Even though $1,000,000,000 is a Rounding Error in the Grand Scheme...
Every freaking wannabe Hipster Dipster Closet Revolutionary has got a Raging Hardon for Bitcoin.

Full Tilt Poker was maybe 5-10 times larger than MtGox in 2010...
And living large in Ireland running everything out of a Big Slush Fund...
When the DOJ of Lower Manhattan shut it down in 5 minutes.

Pokers Star paid $731 million to settle with the US government.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2012/07/31/pokerstars-will-pay-547-million-to-settle-u-s-government-charges-and-buy-full-tilt-poker/

There is a non-trivial probability this is what happens to MtGox.





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