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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculate and win 0.1 btc! Guess the $1000 date on: November 18, 2013, 06:16:26 PM
December 9, 2013.

Actually, I think it will be sooner, but the rules prohibit me from making a guess in November! Thanks.

122dS8stWBaXeVDK5JbQG96sduV25ozE2n
62  Economy / Speculation / Re: How long are we going to be stuck at $600? This is getting boring. on: November 18, 2013, 02:50:36 PM
This is bullshit! It's been stuck at $125.63 for almost 2 minutes. When is it going to move again?

LOL! Thank you, Sir P.G.



I think I may be able to quote this again in the future... I hope!
63  Other / Off-topic / Re: JUST GOT MARRIED! on: November 18, 2013, 02:56:52 AM
May your honeymoon never end!
64  Economy / Economics / Re: When Shopping With A Card Get Cash Out, Why Not Get Bitcoin? on: November 16, 2013, 02:48:30 PM
....pay your bill and buy Bitcoin at the same time with a Bitcoin merchant. ....

Like this idea very much. Might be easier for the merchant too, to save them one conversion transaction. Plus not having to run to the bank to get change coins.

Good way perhaps to spread the gospel: even if the customer has no history of Bitcoin usage, an instant paper wallet could be generated. With the growing faascination, an instruction poster on the wall, or a quick conversation could gain another convert. People who would otherwise not venture into this world (localbitcoins, meetups, various exchanges etc.).
65  Economy / Speculation / Re: Guess the weekend low (16-17/11/2013) 0.1bitcoin prize on: November 15, 2013, 10:30:54 PM
396.6666
122dS8stWBaXeVDK5JbQG96sduV25ozE2n
66  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner on: October 25, 2013, 03:15:33 PM
This is a really interesting thread with great detective work.

Hopefully Bitcoin doesn't end up with a 1%er problem but at the rate we're going at - I'm not sure how that would be avoided.

Yes. Thanks rpietila, for starting this thread. It's quite the eye opener. It is making me rethink whether I want to hold a currency with such a top heavy distribution. Disturbing to have your beliefs challenged, but useful.

I KNOW it's not a Ponzi pyramid scheme, but the shape of the adoption curve, and the growth pattern is similar enough that potential adopters might be thinking that, if it looks like a duck, and quacks like one too, then maybe...

That has to be a long term problem for mainstream take-up.

I would disagree that Bitcoin looking like a ponzi will be the cause of low uptake.

I suspect it's too sophisticated for most people and will just need adoption to come via recommendation. At some point it'll reach critical mass and be accepted just like Paypal.

I still remember the time when if you mentioned Paypal, people would look at you like some sort of computer nerd. These days it's commonplace to find it at any online store.

No-one cares that I've used PayPal to pay, just that I did. That's where I see Bitcoin when it's finally adopted by the masses.

No argument from me. I agree with you. I think that looking Ponzi-like is A barrier, not THE barrier. I still feel that until my 8000 year old aunt can use and keep safe Bitcoin while using Windows at the library, it will remain marginal.



Here, the important parameters I used were:

- average investment in bitcoin is $1000 (buy outright, or mining equipment)

- estimated the percentage of holders whether they had invested at $100, $10, $1, $0.1 or $0.01

- Ones invested at $100/BTC still have their whole investment, others have sold 20%, 40%, 60% or 80%, respectively.

- Calculate weighted average, how much is the present value of an average remaining bitcoin investment (=$3,400, which is quite small for the reason that 80% were estimated to have bought in at about $100)

- Divide bitcoin market cap by the previous figure, obtaining number of holders (700,000).

- arrange the number of people in a certain log-bracket so that they approximately conform to bell curve (found out in other similar data that thy do) and satisfy the constraints of total bitcoins and the known stash of Satoshi and some idea of the top-heaviness of the distribution. <= it is essentially a parameter, how many coins to allocate to BTC10,000+ bracket. I think the realistic range is BTC3M to BTC7M, including Satoshi's 1M.

- almost nothing in the distribution changes if the number of holders is 200k instead of 600-700k. The bulk of the bitcoins is held by the top, and their number is inversely correlated to their average holding. The average holding must follow certain rules so there are not many parameters.

edit: Ah, as I was writing, I remembered that average remaining investment was calculated with bitcoin price of $100 instead of the current $200. This makes the total number of bitcoin users 350,000, which I think is very realistic considering other metrics.



Does this remind anyone of the Drake equation? LOL.

Rpietila, this is the most fascinating thread in a LONG while. Thanks. What happens if you change some of your assumption parameters?

- average investment in bitcoin is $1000 (buy outright, or mining equipment) I wonder about this assumption. Why that particular number? What if you change this to the maximum amount one can withdraw from an ATM in one day? Say, $400 - a guess(!). I know...
67  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner on: October 25, 2013, 02:42:18 PM
This is a really interesting thread with great detective work.

Hopefully Bitcoin doesn't end up with a 1%er problem but at the rate we're going at - I'm not sure how that would be avoided.

Yes. Thanks rpietila, for starting this thread. It's quite the eye opener. It is making me rethink whether I want to hold a currency with such a top heavy distribution. Disturbing to have your beliefs challenged, but useful.

I KNOW it's not a Ponzi pyramid scheme, but the shape of the adoption curve, and the growth pattern is similar enough that potential adopters might be thinking that, if it looks like a duck, and quacks like one too, then maybe...

That has to be a long term problem for mainstream take-up.
68  Economy / Services / Re: Design a physical Bitcoin - 5 BTC bounty + design credits + free physical coin! on: October 02, 2013, 12:45:48 AM

I know it's not a democracy, but I really like this design. Sure, some details are not optimum for me, but it's what you asked for: out of the box. Not thrilled with the Star Date, but whatever. The design IDEA is fresh, and exciting.

Mjbmonetarymetals, could you work up a design study with a different planet, (I like Jupiter!), or a different view of Earth, and maybe a series of different spaceships? Orion Drives, Generation Ships, Sails etc? I'd have been tempted to submit my own design, but I didn't have the time to climb the steep learning slope. Anyway, this is YOUR idea. Run with it, please.

OP: I'd be more likely to buy this type of Physical Bitcoin than any others, no insult intended to the many other excellent designs.
69  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Im Here! on: September 27, 2013, 03:17:01 PM
Is it possible to read anything into the screen names people adopt? Not in my case, of course. Anyway, welcome, ghostman. (apologies if there's a "real" ghostman)
70  Economy / Services / Re: 0.01 Bitcoin Giveaways + Extra 0.25 Bitcoin Winner! on: September 27, 2013, 05:25:06 AM
Hi, added a comment. Hope it is interesting, and thanks in advance!

122dS8stWBaXeVDK5JbQG96sduV25ozE2n
71  Economy / Securities / Re: Coming Soon - Shares for 100TH/s Mining Farm - Payout is better than Pyramining on: September 17, 2013, 10:16:15 PM
Hello. Looks interesting. Good Luck!

I'm not sure just what the boundaries for newbiness are. Are I one?
72  Other / Off-topic / Re: Asian films old and new: recommendations, discussion and appreciation on: September 14, 2013, 07:42:44 AM
FirstAscent, what do you feel about 3-Iron? Have you ever seen its like?
73  Other / Off-topic / Re: Some films that are bit longer than usual on: September 13, 2013, 08:31:50 AM

...Yang's Yi Yi is nearly three hours long. ...

What the! Another of my syndrome films that I haven't (yet) watched. I need to block off 3 (!) hours for this! I usually don't watch films because I need to see them at one sitting, so I'm used to only watching them if I can get 2 hours uninterrupted. Obtaining 3 might be a struggle.
74  Other / Off-topic / Re: Asian films old and new: recommendations, discussion and appreciation on: September 13, 2013, 08:13:03 AM
And watch Hiroshi Teshigahara's Woman in the Dunes and The Face of Another for avant-garde explorations of identity. And watch Masahiro Shinoda's Pale Flower, With Beauty and Sorrow, and The Petrified Forest for nihilistic themes. And don't miss out on Masaki Kobayashi's The Human Condition. And Nagisa Oshima's Cruel Story of Youth. And Imamura's Pigs and Battleships. Want more Naruse? Watch Hideko Takamine in Yearning and Floating Clouds. And don't miss out on Keisuke Kinoshita's Twenty-four Eyes for a brilliant performance from Takamine. And absolutely, you need to see Kenji Mizoguchi's three masterpieces starring Kinuyo Tanaka: The Life of Oharu, Ugetsu, and Sansho the Bailiff.

Yes, tomorrow! LOL!


...Unless you just want to watch action flicks.

Well, I really liked House of Flying Daggers. OK, I really liked Zhang Ziyi in House of Flying Daggers.

I actually have a copy of Woman in the Dunes, but haven't watched it yet. The syndrome again. I've read the book though.
75  Other / Off-topic / Re: Asian films old and new: recommendations, discussion and appreciation on: September 13, 2013, 07:16:22 AM
And did you ever see Kurosawa's No Regrets for our Youth? It's one of my favorite Kurosawa films. See the tribute here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUGhS7t903c

Just got a copy today!

Awesome! Watch When a Woman Ascends the Stairs and No Regrets for our Youth.

But after these!
76  Other / Off-topic / Re: Asian films old and new: recommendations, discussion and appreciation on: September 13, 2013, 07:10:42 AM
...
Finally, watching a bootleg copy of 2046, probably with botched subtitles, possibly not Wong Kar-Wai's final cut, with a bunch of guys is not the proper way to watch a Wong Kar-Wai film, ever. You watch it alone, or with a girlfriend who appreciates that kind of film.

Hey! There were girls there! One of them drove his car to the house! LOL, what kind of geek do you think I am! Heh!

Anyway, I'll put it on the list, since your OTHER picks seem likely to be good!
77  Other / Off-topic / Re: Asian films old and new: recommendations, discussion and appreciation on: September 13, 2013, 06:26:13 AM

...Well, consider:

1. I assume you've watched the film only once.
2. You haven't seen the other two films, which play a role in appreciating 2046.
3. You had expectations of a science fiction film, so you weren't getting exactly what you expected.
...

All three points are correct! I saw this at a dinner party about 10 years ago. A friend who was notoriously secretive, so secretive that none of us knew where he lived suggested that we have a picnic. I was in the car following his car. He stopped by a park, and got out, telling us to wait right there, and walked into the park. We were mystified. He drove off, and we wondered just what the hell was going on. Ten minutes later he came running out of the park, hopped in the car, and said," Drive."

He guided us to a nondescript bungalow on the other side of the park and said, "Let's have the picnic here. In my house." We were flummoxed. So we had the picnic in his living room, and watched a bootleg copy of the as yet unreleased 2046. I really enjoyed it, but maybe it wasn't exactly the movie that was so enjoyable!
78  Other / Off-topic / Re: Asian films old and new: recommendations, discussion and appreciation on: September 13, 2013, 05:44:58 AM
Well, I enjoyed 2046 a lot. So I'll put that one on the list!

...what are some of your favorite moments, shots, scenes from 2046?

Sorry, not one of my favorite films. I enjoyed it, but was initially drawn in by the Science Fictional elements. So I enjoyed it for the visuals. The sense of place, style, and especially time. I actually found it a bit cold, though. Are the characters in his other films easier to empathize with?

Well, you just said you enjoyed it a lot. Is that the only Wong Kar-Wai film you've seen? There's a saying: "The more you put into a Wong Kar-Wai film, the more you get out of it." No way around it. 2046 is a masterpiece of allegory, stories within stories, an exploration of unrequited love and longing. And Zhang Ziyi's performance is nothing short of stunning. As one reviewer said: "She expresses bottomless agony with a single teardrop."

So much is being said in this wordless scene: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRfPF3tLIGQ

Yeah, but I enjoy a lot of stuff, some of which I acknowledge is not of the highest quality, for whatever unfathomable reasons. Guilty pleasures, if you will. I can tell that the film is of high quality, but it didn't move me.

And it  IS the only Wong Kar-Wai film I have seen, and Zhang Ziyi's character is the one I most liked in that film. But in The Road Home, I LOVED her character, both young and old, such is the power of her performance.
79  Other / Off-topic / Re: Asian films old and new: recommendations, discussion and appreciation on: September 13, 2013, 04:57:04 AM
Well, I enjoyed 2046 a lot. So I'll put that one on the list!

...what are some of your favorite moments, shots, scenes from 2046?

Sorry, not one of my favorite films. I enjoyed it, but was initially drawn in by the Science Fictional elements. So I enjoyed it for the visuals. The sense of place, style, and especially time. I actually found it a bit cold, though. Are the characters in his other films easier to empathize with?



...and of course Mononoke Hime  Kiss


Miyazaki-sama! The opening sequence of Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind is masterful, one of the best I've ever seen. The beauty of the cave in which she first sees the Ohmu's molted (?) shell is hypnotic. And of course, the flying scenes.
80  Other / Off-topic / Re: Asian films old and new: recommendations, discussion and appreciation on: September 13, 2013, 03:41:02 AM
Well, I enjoyed 2046 a lot. So I'll put that one on the list!

But I strongly urge people to see Zhang Yimou's The Road Home. Very human, yet a work of transcendent beauty.
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