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Is Ukraine at war? Because i'm pretty sure they haven't declared war on Russia either and up to 2 days ago were even receiving money for transferring Russian gas.
They key point here is intent, in a conflict it's the responsibility of the military to minimize civilian casualties. Everyone can read what you wrote, that it is "it is much better to keep it open, it makes drones more difficult to identify" that implies that it would be much worse for Ukraine if Russia closed the airspace, because there would be less civilian aircraft and make UA drones harder to hide. Clearly doing the opposite of trying to minimize the civilian casualties, there's really no other way to spin this.
Ruzzia is at war, Ruzzia cannot defend their skies nor guarantee the security of the commercial flights, full of civilians that should be safe from the Ruzzian air defence systems while crossing Ruzzia. If Ruzzia cannot tell a commercial plane from a drone - and they have shoot down a plane full of civilians killing 37 and injuring many others - they should not allow commercial flights over their territory, just as Ukraine has done long ago. If you really want to minimise casualties you would close the airspace, but it is evident that it is not a priority to minimise anything. But we all know that is not going to happen so again: To all, please check carefully that you flight does not go over Ruzzia or for that matter Georgia, you may be killed by the Ruzzian air defences.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/28/putin-apologises-to-azerbaijans-president-over-tragic-plane-crashPutin apologises to Azerbaijan’s president over ‘tragic’ plane crash
Vladimir Putin says incident occurred in Russian airspace, but does not acknowledge any possible involvement of Russia. In a statement on Saturday, the Kremlin said Russian air defence systems were firing near Grozny due to a Ukrainian drone strike, but stopped short of saying one of these hit the plane. So, if your planes is downed by the Ruzzian air defence you will get a vage apology, no recognition of gilt whatsoever and no compensation to your relatives since "nothing happened". Just a quick note: The first 3 French Mirages have arrived to Ukraine. Again it's one thing to say that RU should close all of its airspace to minimize unintended casualties to civilian airspace, and completely different story to say "it is much better to keep it open, it makes drones more difficult to identify" and "keep on trying to find out if it is a drone or a passenger plane" your intentions are crystal clear here. |
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Zelenski getting even more twitchy as Putin grabs half the coke supply which was located in what was temporarily called 'Ukraine' by the Bolsheviks. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2024-12-20/prospect-losing-pokrovsk-a-blow-to-ukraines-metallurgical-sectorThe Pishchane mine was taken yesterday. There is another juicy mine (rare-earth) in the vicinity before the Russians get to the Dnipropetrovsk border which should happen within a few weeks at the present rate. My bet is that both were under the 'beneficent ownership' of Fink/BlackRock...for a short period of time at least. After the border line is crossed, there are a ton of nice shiny things for the Ruskies to appropriate within Dnipropetrovsk proper. Of course, shiny stuff is very difficult to resist for a cleptocratic regime, that's no doubt. A perfect reason to make sure Ukraine gets enough support to collapse the Ruzzian economy further. Do you think the market may not be as appreciative of this fantastic military feat as you? How come does the Ruble go down the drain despite this marvellous conquest? https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=2YI wonder if they are going to close the Ruzzian air space anytime soon. It seems it is too dangerous to pretend that everything is going well. But to be honest, it is much better to keep it open, it makes drones more difficult to identify,It seems that Trump's changing his rethoric about Ukraine. Looks to me similar to that "we will take Ukraine in 3 days" that then became "we will take part of Ukraine no matter how many years it take". Trump's version is "I will stop the war in 2 days" soon to become "I hope we can stop in 2 years". And while the resident trolls discuss non-sense, the president of Azerbajian is seeking recognition of guilt and compensation from Putin. Interesting dilema... close the airspace and loose international communication by air or... keep on trying to find out if it is a drone or a passenger plane. https://apnews.com/article/azerbaijan-russia-plane-crash-e6c1002284a900fa635eecf5573214eaIt seems that also the sea is dangerous for Ruzzia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZB2iZg-hVwBiden has sent another 2.5 Billion. Use wisely. Interesting admission of the UA strategy  Using civilian aircraft to hide military equipment behind. But it does fall in line with UA's other actions and answers the question like why Ukraine didn't close the airspace over Donbas and let MH17 in where UA military jets were operating, or why UA didn't open humanitarian corridor for civilians out of Mariupol where it's Azov battalion was cornered. But even if we agree to the true benefactor of this horrendous (possible war crime, Deliberately using civilians to shield military operations) strategy, that nevertheless doesn't excuse the ultimate action but underlines the difficulties RF forces are operating under. I am absolutely puzzled by your interpretation. I hope it is due to your personal choice of festive celebrations in these dates. Ruzzia is a country at war, there are drones and missiles flying over Ruzzia air space - that is what happens in a war. Yes, you are at war.Ruzzia cannot guarantee the safety of their own air space. They cannot tell a large passenger plane from a usually small drone. That is clearly the case and has been clearly proven by Ruzzia downing a passenger plane without any "help" from Ukraine. Ruzzia should reckon they cannot guarantee any level of safety to their commercial civil aviation flights, anyone taking a plane in Ruzzia should be made aware that they can be downed by their own air defence. It seems that Ruzzia - as usual - will not recognise this fact, but passengers at least should be made aware. If you take a commercial flight in Ruzzia, you may be killed by the Ruzzia air defence forces. It has happened and they have not done anything to prevent it from happening again.https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-airlines-flight-was-downed-by-russian-air-defence-system-four-sources-2024-12-26/ Enjou your flight! Is Ukraine at war? Because i'm pretty sure they haven't declared war on Russia either and up to 2 days ago were even receiving money for transferring Russian gas. They key point here is intent, in a conflict it's the responsibility of the military to minimize civilian casualties. Everyone can read what you wrote, that it is " it is much better to keep it open, it makes drones more difficult to identify" that implies that it would be much worse for Ukraine if Russia closed the airspace, because there would be less civilian aircraft and make UA drones harder to hide. Clearly doing the opposite of trying to minimize the civilian casualties, there's really no other way to spin this. |
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Zelenski getting even more twitchy as Putin grabs half the coke supply which was located in what was temporarily called 'Ukraine' by the Bolsheviks. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2024-12-20/prospect-losing-pokrovsk-a-blow-to-ukraines-metallurgical-sectorThe Pishchane mine was taken yesterday. There is another juicy mine (rare-earth) in the vicinity before the Russians get to the Dnipropetrovsk border which should happen within a few weeks at the present rate. My bet is that both were under the 'beneficent ownership' of Fink/BlackRock...for a short period of time at least. After the border line is crossed, there are a ton of nice shiny things for the Ruskies to appropriate within Dnipropetrovsk proper. Of course, shiny stuff is very difficult to resist for a cleptocratic regime, that's no doubt. A perfect reason to make sure Ukraine gets enough support to collapse the Ruzzian economy further. Do you think the market may not be as appreciative of this fantastic military feat as you? How come does the Ruble go down the drain despite this marvellous conquest? https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=2YI wonder if they are going to close the Ruzzian air space anytime soon. It seems it is too dangerous to pretend that everything is going well. But to be honest, it is much better to keep it open, it makes drones more difficult to identify,It seems that Trump's changing his rethoric about Ukraine. Looks to me similar to that "we will take Ukraine in 3 days" that then became "we will take part of Ukraine no matter how many years it take". Trump's version is "I will stop the war in 2 days" soon to become "I hope we can stop in 2 years". And while the resident trolls discuss non-sense, the president of Azerbajian is seeking recognition of guilt and compensation from Putin. Interesting dilema... close the airspace and loose international communication by air or... keep on trying to find out if it is a drone or a passenger plane. https://apnews.com/article/azerbaijan-russia-plane-crash-e6c1002284a900fa635eecf5573214eaIt seems that also the sea is dangerous for Ruzzia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZB2iZg-hVwBiden has sent another 2.5 Billion. Use wisely. Interesting admission of the UA strategy Using civilian aircraft to hide military equipment behind. But it does fall in line with UA's other actions and answers the question like why Ukraine didn't close the airspace over Donbas and let MH17 in the area where UA military jets were operating, or why UA didn't open humanitarian corridor for civilians out of Mariupol where it's Azov battalion was surrounded. But even if we agree to the true benefactor of this horrendous (possible war crime, Deliberately using civilians to shield military operations) strategy, that nevertheless doesn't excuse the ultimate action but underlines the difficulties RF forces must operating under. |
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Ukraine and Ruzzia "ideals" are exactly opposite. The recruiting age in Ukraine has been stubbornly kept relatively high at 25 years, because the only reason than older Ukrainians are fighting is because they want their children to have a shimmer of hope of scaping the Moscovian rule and actually have a country that they can run and decide upon by themselves.
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Because anyone cares what Ukrainian "ideals" are? How Zelensky’s popularity has sunk after nearly three years of war
He may have rallied Ukraine against Russia, but war-weariness and army corruption rows have hurt his image and most voters would prefer he not seek a second term
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Just 16 per cent would vote to re-elect him for a second term, according to an opinion poll of 1,200 Ukrainians published this week by the Social Monitoring Centre in Kyiv. The poll, the most comprehensive study of electoral preferences since the invasion began in 2022, also found that about 60 per cent would prefer Zelensky not to even stand for re-election.
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There is also a danger that Zelensky’s popularity could plummet even further if he goes ahead with Washington’s suggestion that Ukraine should begin sending younger men to the front. A senior official in President Biden’s administration said this week that Ukraine should lower the minimum age at which men could be mobilised for the war from 25 to 18.
So majority of Ukrainians want to end the war as soon as possible, and are open to territorial concessions which would automatically trigger elections in UA, but i'm sure the guy currently in power with just 16% chance of being reelected when the war ends, has some really valid reasons why the war should continue. Not like Ukrainian people can do anything about it (well, outside of another revolution) |
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Gentlemen, it was and continues to be a pleasure! In retrospect, all of this will seem inevitable  |
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Wasn't Goat the one that got arrested for stealing the 50k-ish silk road coins and he pretty much gave them to uncle sam in a trade for a relatively light sentence?
I thought that was Loaded. yes. same memory here Huh must've missed it. Remember Loaded doxed himself with a wedding picture once |
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Yes, apparently Ruzzia has used an ICBM, with no nuclear warhead of course. I guess that is to showcase that they have... ICBMs, a technology from the 50s and can launch them... like everyone knows they can since the 50s. Only difference here, these can be detected much more easily than cruise, albeit they are quite difficult to intercept.
According to Putin, it was mid range ballistic missile, not ICBM: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-attack-ukraine-kyiv-says-2024-11-21/It was response after Ukraine's attack in Russian territory using Western missiles. It's supposed to be a warning, showing what Russia can do. But INO, we didn't saw anything what we didn't saw before. Most of their missiles like Kinzhal or Iskander can carry nuclear warheads Don't you find it interesting that more than half of Ukrainians want negotiations, to end the war as soon as possible. But instead they are told to continue and escalate with ATACMS and then they need to brace for retaliation with ICBMs or medium range ballistics. It's like no one really cares what Ukrainian people want, others know better than them, and Ukrainians are just playing their roll in all of this. Not like they can even vote now   I find it logical. After three years of war Ukrainians want to leave in peace. Now, what each of them understand as a negotiated peace may be quite different from what you think is a negotiated peace. I am not surprised, Trump is signalling that he is either less supportive or not supportive at all of continuing to help Ukraine and Ukraine on its own cannot match the numbers of Ruzzia. I guess that if the US were promissing unlimited and prompt support this would be looking very different. And now... lets look a the Ruzzian polls... you would not want to cherry-pick right? You would never do that? https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/poll-majority-russians-would-oppose-returning-land-even-if-putin-decides-return-it-part-peaceA majority of Russians would support ending hostilities and launching peace negotiations The funny thing is that they want peace, but not giving anything for it. Still in their national supremacist mindset. respondents favoring an end to Russia’s so-called special military operation and launching peace negotiations (54%) is greater than that of those who support continuing the operation (38%). However, when asked whether Russia should make concessions to Ukraine to end the military operation and sign a peace agreement, the share of those who answered “definitely or probably yes” was 20% in September 2024. In contrast, 70% were opposed, after fluctuating in the range of 70%–73% last year. But we all know this does not matter in Ruzzia, you only need to poll one individual. ... It's logical that people in control of this continue escalations despite the will of the majority that has to bear the consequences, and they have no legal leverage to do anything about it? What the percentage of people must want negotiations and be ready to territorial concessions, for these escalations to become illogical for you? Are you saying you were supporting all these sacrifices that Ukraine people had to endure, based solely on your hope of "unlimited and prompt support of US", really and that's after Afghanistan? But we all know that once this stops, real losses have to be released on both sides, and people will start asking tough questions like who's responsible for this all, and what was the point of ignoring Russia's security concerns and why UA's government volunteered it's population for this exercise While the contents of the Western responses were not released, U.S. and NATO leaders were clear that their responses did not make any concessions on several core Russian demands — such as blocking Ukraine from NATO — even if they are willing to discuss other concerns. Would you be interested in one side declassifying Russia security demands, and US and NATO's written responses in 2021? We should make a poll, whether Zelenskiy will run to US or UK after negotiations? |
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Yes, apparently Ruzzia has used an ICBM, with no nuclear warhead of course. I guess that is to showcase that they have... ICBMs, a technology from the 50s and can launch them... like everyone knows they can since the 50s. Only difference here, these can be detected much more easily than cruise, albeit they are quite difficult to intercept.
According to Putin, it was mid range ballistic missile, not ICBM: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-attack-ukraine-kyiv-says-2024-11-21/It was response after Ukraine's attack in Russian territory using Western missiles. It's supposed to be a warning, showing what Russia can do. But INO, we didn't saw anything what we didn't saw before. Most of their missiles like Kinzhal or Iskander can carry nuclear warheads Don't you find it interesting that more than half of Ukrainians want negotiations, to end the war as soon as possible. But instead they are told to continue and escalate with ATACMS and then they need to brace for retaliation with ICBMs or medium range ballistics. It's like no one really cares what Ukrainian people want, others know better than them, and Ukrainians are just playing their roll in all of this. Not like they can even vote now |
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At this point I think putin is mostly hot air when comes to the possibility of using nuclear weaponry against Ukraine, to be honest. If he does it would only be a sign of his despair to continue to hold onto power, as he is getting humiliated by each year that passes by and has not been able to take over Ukraine as he expected.
As it stands today, Russia is hoping for Trump to pressure Ukraine to give up and stop the war.
the established power in Russia needs to continuously give this image of having a strong and invincible leader to the rest of the world, specially the west, not winning the war against Ukraine would put the strength of Russia and Putin in question.
The relatively recent visit Putin had in North Korea was a sign of weakness, as well.
Whatever... Using long range missils to attack military bases and ammo deposits in Russia sounds rather fair play to me, keeping in mind the crises against humanity Russia has committed in Ukraine and against civilians.
The biggest issue with such logic is that you're (either intentionally or naively) ignoring the consequences. What you're essentially saying is that you're ok with a global precedence where a nuclear power can provide advance weaponry and advisors/support team to provide targeting, to a third country to attack another nuclear power. Are you sure that you've completely thought this through and are ok with what the possible consequences of this in the future? From top of my head, why wouldn't RU send ballistics to Syria and Yemen, who's gonna stop them, and how, threaten RU back with nukes so that they don't? Idiots are getting us to a point of both sides threatening each other with nukes, and then the other idiots on both sides are cheering this. Sucks, but can't say it's unexpected, history shows that we have to once again reach a pinnacle in escalation before we realize that we'll kill each other and can deescalate. What possible upside do you expect to see out of this decision at this point in the game? The Army also fired more than 400 of the bomblet-carrying tactical missiles in Operation Iraqi Freedom
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As a result, Ukraine has been low down the list. Although no figures have been supplied by the Pentagon, it’s believed the Kyiv government has only about 50 missiles [ATACMS] at this point. |
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hmmm but still under $100k  |
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Well looks like after RU showed it intentions on UA's power grid before the winter, Biden gave his approval for 300km ATACMS. Let's see what changes it'll bring, and what will Zelenskiy ask for next.
Point stands, Russia had a warm water port in Crimea before this started. You gave me an idea, during the negotiations, instead of transferring RU claimed land not under RU control, they can just sign a lease, like US did with Cuba, everyone should be happy with that, right?
Sure spheres of influence change all the time, but on the periphery, no one should act surprised at the results of bringing cookies right to the boarder.
That seems what the news are saying. They could have choose to "notify by doing" instead of publishing it, so I guess there a reason why the filtered that to the press instead of simply letting Ruzzia find out after getting 20 or 30 planes destroyed. What will he ask next? Ukraine has always asked for the same thing: Go back home and make little Ruzzians with your wives instead of coming to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians while getting killed in the process of trying. BTW, ATACAMS is not really that long range. Ruzzia will need to pull aviation further away, depots further away and be mindful that will get hit back when attacking the Ukrainian infrastructure. My guess is that the US government has considered that they have to keep "demilitarising" Ruzzia quickly as Putin is trying and failing to recover Kursk quickly. Perhaps is like both know there is a deadline for armed actions. Any bet on the first targets? Tangarog airbase maybe? Think you already know the answer to that question. The reason is, as with all previous deliveries, they all coincidentally come too little and too late. Just enough to raise the morale and have a shiny headlines, not enough to effect anything, but slows the bleeding enough to keep UA fighting just a bit longer. Luckily for us all, there's a ton of communications happening behind closed doors, even Iran notified Israel before attacking. The outcome has already been decided and we're just watching the last hand being played out. You funny. What miracle weapon UA will ask west for next: switchblades, javelins, M777, HIMARS, Patriots, Abrams, Leopards, F16, ATACMS ... we all see how effective they all were, surely the next one must make a difference. Biden lets Ukraine use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles in Russia's Kursk region
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A source with knowledge of the issue confirmed the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) was only authorized for use in the Kursk area, where North Korean troops have been deployed.
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U.S. officials hope that if North Korean troops in Kursk are hit, Pyongyang might review its decision to send troops to Russia and the Russian counterattack in Kursk will fail.
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A Russia expert from the think-tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) told reporters the authorization should not be limited to the Kursk region and said Biden should drop the restriction.
So no Tangarog, RU had plenty of time to move the planes but looks like they want to attack UA power grid a bit more before the winter and needed even more time before the inconvenience of relocating planes further back. So most likely UA will just pound some sand in Kursk to send a message to North Korea. Which will surely have profound effect on North Korea because we all know how much they care about +/- 10.000 of their people  |
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As usual, Ukraine needs to make sure there are plenty of expensive and irreplaceable assets destroyed in Ruzzia daily, so that eventually the scale starts weighting more towards a peace in reasonable terms for Ukraine. One billion here in oil, half billion there in ammo, 100 million destroying planes,... etc. There is a lot to choose from and drones are not expensive.
And how exactly do you expect that Russian general, that's tasked with nuclear deterrence/retaliation watching the radar screen, to know if US ballistic missile with possible nuclear payload crossing the Russian boarder from Ukraine, with general trajectory towards Moscow will actually come down from space at some oil facilities before it reaches Moscow? I guess you expect him to know all possible trajectories that are crossing paths with St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, all RU nuclear cites, RU nuclear power plants, nuke early warning radars etc etc etc... Does anyone care to ask the rest of the world if they're ok with that? Stop playing dumb Look at the Median Age, Fertility etc if the goal is to get to 100 couples they're doing a good job. Trump has lied and broken tons of promise before, so I wouldn't read much into his "promises". With that said, if he was serious about it he could just say that there will be no new aid for Ukraine, period, and that Ukraine has until January 21 to make the best deal it can. Then have backdoor talks with Russia decide on the compromise and pass to Ukraine what they should agree to. If Zelenskiy decided to ignore that, his inner circle and generals would quickly make Z understand that he's in no position to go against the will of US, and you're delusional if you think otherwise. Anyone who has ever looked at the globe realizes that Russia is not in it for the territory. Russia cannot allow Ukraine to fall under US's sphere of influence. So securing Russia's influence, culture, granting Russian language official status in UA constitution... , and no NATO would take priority over square kilometers of land. i.e. agree for UA to hold the land for X years and then referendum, in return of putting Yanukovych (or someone like that) back in Kyiv. Independent Ukraine is impossible, even Switzerland is not independent anymore. It must fall under some sphere of influence, and as we all see, Russia cannot allow Nuland's cookies in anymore. Everyone realizes that Russia cannot hold on forever, just as everyone realizes that Russia doesn't have to as Ukraine would collapse socially, politically, and militarily way before Russia does. So continuing this is just an exercise in futility I expect that Ruzzia notices that they cannot distinguish one from another and decide to leave Ukraine so that they do not have any missiles flying towards Moscow. BTW I do not think ATACAMS can carry nuclear warheads. Russia is absolutely in for the territory. Firstly to have warm water ports (Crimea) and also, not for the territory as for the square meters, but for the territory in terms of keeping distance with NATO and with possible nuclear missiles launch sites. Please, do not make people laugh pretending Putin is on this for the good of the Ruzzian language or the like. Right, well your wishful thinking is just not something that the rest of the world is willing to bet their lives on. (Don't think ATACMS can carry nuclear payload either, but it doesn't mean it cannot be modified to do so, plus how would you differentiate it from the profile of a ballistic missile that can at launch). Did Russia not have the warm water ports in Crimea before this? Once again, this is about spheres of influence, not sure what is so hard for you to understand about this. That means just as with Belarus, the lines on the map don't matter as much as which sphere the whole country falls under. And that includes culture, language, heritage etc... Exactly the reason why Ukrainian government does everything it can to [...] [...] The detection of ballistic missiles, the place of its launch and where are they heading has quite a bit of science to it, but that's for another day. Again, if you have an enemy in front that has ballistic missiles that - that is your assumption, which I think is wrong - can have nuclear warheads and you do not know if what they launch is or not a nuclear warhead, the safest and best option is to leave that enemy alone them alone. Problem solved. Crimea was Ukrainian "before this", meaning by "this" the illegal annexation by Ruzzia of territories of another country, namely Ukraine (in this case, one of many). Ukraine could decide on who could use the ports, which were rented to Ruzzia before 2014. Rented, not given. Spheres of influence are effectively easy to understand, what seems difficult for you to accept is that they are not immobile and they do not last forever particularly if a preeminent nation looses the cold war but pretends that did not happen. The USSR is gone in all senses, Putin trying to rebuild (in territory) will only cause further destruction. Musk is on the side of Musk and will say whatever is good for... guess who. Well looks like after RU showed it intentions on UA's power grid before the winter, Biden gave his approval for 300km ATACMS. Let's see what changes it'll bring, and what will Zelenskiy ask for next. Point stands, Russia had a warm water port in Crimea before this started. You gave me an idea, during the negotiations, instead of transferring RU claimed land not under RU control, they can just sign a lease, like US did with Cuba, everyone should be happy with that, right? Sure spheres of influence change all the time, but on the periphery, no one should act surprised at the results of bringing cookies right to the boarder. |
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What might have Elon found most Funny? 1. US can't force Ukraine to negotiation table. 2. Ukraine is an independent country. 3. Zelensky is the president and represents the voice of Ukraine. Haha yeah, sure, keep on thinking that.  |
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As usual, Ukraine needs to make sure there are plenty of expensive and irreplaceable assets destroyed in Ruzzia daily, so that eventually the scale starts weighting more towards a peace in reasonable terms for Ukraine. One billion here in oil, half billion there in ammo, 100 million destroying planes,... etc. There is a lot to choose from and drones are not expensive.
And how exactly do you expect that Russian general, that's tasked with nuclear deterrence/retaliation watching the radar screen, to know if US ballistic missile with possible nuclear payload crossing the Russian boarder from Ukraine, with general trajectory towards Moscow will actually come down from space at some oil facilities before it reaches Moscow? I guess you expect him to know all possible trajectories that are crossing paths with St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, all RU nuclear cites, RU nuclear power plants, nuke early warning radars etc etc etc... Does anyone care to ask the rest of the world if they're ok with that? Stop playing dumb Look at the Median Age, Fertility etc if the goal is to get to 100 couples they're doing a good job. Trump has lied and broken tons of promise before, so I wouldn't read much into his "promises". With that said, if he was serious about it he could just say that there will be no new aid for Ukraine, period, and that Ukraine has until January 21 to make the best deal it can. Then have backdoor talks with Russia decide on the compromise and pass to Ukraine what they should agree to. If Zelenskiy decided to ignore that, his inner circle and generals would quickly make Z understand that he's in no position to go against the will of US, and you're delusional if you think otherwise. Anyone who has ever looked at the globe realizes that Russia is not in it for the territory. Russia cannot allow Ukraine to fall under US's sphere of influence. So securing Russia's influence, culture, granting Russian language official status in UA constitution... , and no NATO would take priority over square kilometers of land. i.e. agree for UA to hold the land for X years and then referendum, in return of putting Yanukovych (or someone like that) back in Kyiv. Independent Ukraine is impossible, even Switzerland is not independent anymore. It must fall under some sphere of influence, and as we all see, Russia cannot allow Nuland's cookies in anymore. Everyone realizes that Russia cannot hold on forever, just as everyone realizes that Russia doesn't have to as Ukraine would collapse socially, politically, and militarily way before Russia does. So continuing this is just an exercise in futility I expect that Ruzzia notices that they cannot distinguish one from another and decide to leave Ukraine so that they do not have any missiles flying towards Moscow. BTW I do not think ATACAMS can carry nuclear warheads. Russia is absolutely in for the territory. Firstly to have warm water ports (Crimea) and also, not for the territory as for the square meters, but for the territory in terms of keeping distance with NATO and with possible nuclear missiles launch sites. Please, do not make people laugh pretending Putin is on this for the good of the Ruzzian language or the like. Right, well your wishful thinking is just not something that the rest of the world is willing to bet their lives on. (Don't think ATACMS can carry nuclear payload either, but it doesn't mean it cannot be modified to do so, plus how would you differentiate it from the profile of a ballistic missile that can at launch). Did Russia not have the warm water ports in Crimea before this? Once again, this is about spheres of influence, not sure what is so hard for you to understand about this. That means just as with Belarus, the lines on the map don't matter as much as which sphere the whole country falls under. And that includes culture, language, heritage etc... Exactly the reason why Ukrainian government does everything it can to fight it, like by banning Russian books and introduce “language inspectors” to fight against the increasing use of Russian. Whether Russian language and culture will get a protected status or LGBT get protected status during the upcoming negotiations will be a clear indicator which sphere the powers will decide the Ukraine will fall under. (not saying this issue is a root cause but just a good indicator) Ukraine being an independent country and the global power behind it cannot make it "sit and listen" is just propaganda, delusional belief pushed by Zelenskiy on his poor people. And is just as believable as Cuba saying that its an independent country and makes its own choices towards the end of the cold war. Musk's reaction is harsh, but it's on point  |
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I really like the 90k range!!
I wonder how it will feel to see 6 digit prices...
great times to be alive
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Look, about the cookies you are getting boring. I think is time you start acknowledging that you are sitting at a table full of cheaters playing poker - and Ruzzia is no exception - and you are accusing the others of cheating better than you. Ruzzia has massively interfered with every European election, with the US election and has used money to buy anyone for sale in the European parliament, in Ukraine, in Chechenia, in the UK and in half of Africa. You may wish to keep pretending otherwise, but there is a big, ugly trail of reports, news and evidence backing it. So, if you think that cookies are the reason, then you need to make your cookies sweeter because, again, Ruzzia is doing pretty much all the repertoire of manipulation, interference, money handling, disinformation... And speaking of deals, it has been proven that a deal with Putin makes just good toilet paper. But to things that matter: There are many countries that share resources with he western countries- just as many countries "share" resources with Ruzzia, sometimes willingly I guess. Ukraine is offering a commercial partnership with the right partners that will not threaten an invasion as a negotiation tool. It is clear that the future path of an independent Ukraine is to be ready to defend itself and to be ready for EU investments. And again, if Ruzzia and you personally do not like it, then you'd need to think what did Ruzzia do wrong. On Ukrainian troops in Europe, I think it is a stupid idea. The whole idea of having US troops in Europe is to make an strike an act of war with the US and the best position for Ukrainian troops strategically is in Ukraine or Kursk  https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2014/06/judy-asks-should-nato-have-bases-in-its-east?lang=enI guess that as a result of this war Ukraine may get nukes. A quote attributed to Churchill captures that spirit: he is supposed to have said that he needed one American soldier, “preferably dead,” to ensure the defense of Europe. Ah so you're finally starting to pick up on the game, good! But you're once again defaulting to absolutes without context as you usually like to do. Sure, Russia is also attempting to "play" the game, but it's a newcomer to this table. The real question is how are Russian actions around the globe compare to what the "west" is doing? You'll see that the difference is in magnitudes! Since the Cuban missile crisis, humanity forced the game to adopt few unwritten rules, one being that countries in direct proximity/on the boarder can be considered an existential threats, and are thus off limits, Cuba was in American "backyard". There were challenges in Africa, LatAm, middle east etc.. but we all stayed safe until that rule was broken in Ukraine with the culmination being Nuland's cookies and the " Fuck the EU" comment. That challenged the world's status quo, after which the two outcomes were either a total collapse of Russia (and then China), or the status quo is restored. As I've mentioned many times before, the weigh categories are different, Russia just cannot compete with the amount of cookies US has. And that's the exact reason why the cookies were chosen for Ukraine. The irony in that is that now China picked up on the game and now spreads it's own "cookies", so in a typical hypocritical manner now everyone needs to be convinced that China should not be allowed to buy influence with their cookies. When one country managed to make itself totally dependent on the other, even for such basics as the salary of its government, the "commercial partnership" is just a nice name for being a vassal, which has zero leverage to negotiate. It started with Ukraine accepting tasty cookies, it's ending with Ukraine offering it's resources itself, which doesn't even look like the west will even accept. Ingenious foresight and a master play by Ukrainian government. If you think that in any scenario Ukraine will be allowed to get nukes (by either side), that just shows your total ignorance at what this conflict is all about. |
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Regardless of the accuracy, there is a hierarchy of priorities in life, in politics and in country and it is important to get those priorities right. For example, if you are Europe, you may care much more about your survival than about paying gas more expensive. If you are Ukraine, the priority is to have a viable independent country. This requires as a bare minimum: - A functioning government to avoid being a failed estate (e.g. Yemen, Haiti). - A population mass, including young people in working age. - A territory that is defendable and can be governed. It is important to have: - Access to the sea (this is rarely spoken about, but Ruzzia lost the battle for the Black Sea). - Defensible borders (difficult, Ukraine is quite flat). - A viable economy. - Sufficient army. And then there are the nice to haves like recovering all your original territory. But that is the third level of priority, survival and safety come first. As I am sure Ruzzia would be much happier if the had taken Ukraine in 3 days, but had to re-think what was important and what may not be. However if by the end of the war you have a free Ukraine, defensible, with a government and a economy that can be rebuilt, you can consider it a reasonable - not good - outcome after having Ruzzia thrown everything they got at you. I would appreciate that anyone with stupid propagandistic comments would refrain from answering, but I guess that is not really possible here is it? Nothing says independence like offering claims to everything in sight while you still can ...
One idea would replace some US troops stationed in Europe with Ukrainian forces after the war.
The other — first devised by Republican senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, according to people involved in designing Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” — suggests sharing Ukraine’s critical natural resources with western partners.
...
Separately, business leaders in Ukraine are also talking with the government about offering Trump “investment screening” powers, allowing him to essentially choose who can do business in the country.
Yep, total independence, what else is left in Ukraine that Zelenskiy can give away, perhaps Ukrainians' firstborn? This is what Ukrainians are fighting for, right? Be a bodyguard for Europe while selling their land, and that's the best case if Trump decides to accept it? Yes, a much better deal for Ukrainian people than what they had in 2013, who wouldn't support such government Who's next in line to try these delicious freedom cookies? |
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Ukraine is not asking for long range missiles to strike Moscow, they can and already have hit Moscow recently, even forcing a closure of the airport. There are also a few reports of military helicopters burning mysteriously in the area. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-launches-drone-attack-moscow-shutting-airports-rcna179485Ukraine launches 'massive attack' on Moscow, shutting down airports But no, there are much more juicy targets that are worth billions and are better hit with ballistic missiles than drones (e.g. protected ammo depots and oil facilities). There is not such a thing as a "point of no return" in population (other than having less than 100 couples of an species), you are making things up. Populations recover well and the Ukrainian army is made of relatively old soldiers in average. But to the point: Trump has "promised" to end the war in 24 hours, let's take it as "in a short period of time". That is not possible unless both sides agree to stop the fight. While Ukraine would suffer if the US withdraws the aid, but the war would not be over. For both sides to agree Putin will ask to keep what he got and take a chunk of additional free land. Zelensky may or may not settle with loosing what Ukraine already lost but he is unlikely to give away land. But regardless of territorial concession from either side, the key for peace is a guarantee of an independent Ukraine. Any deal that means Ruzzia will recover and have all the incentives to attack again, with any of the usual excuses, a defenceless Ukraine is not going to be accepted by Ukraine - there is no benefit in allowing Ruzzia to re-arm and prepare better. Putin may have a similar view from the opposite side - any deal that means Ukraine is not held hostage to a Ruzzian invasion is not valid. If it comes to brute forcing a solution it means that Ruzzia will have to keep pressing, with or without success for at least another year. That is doable, but it will also cut deep into the economy, the population and the future of Ruzzia. Even the regime may get scared. As usual, Ukraine needs to make sure there are plenty of expensive and irreplaceable assets destroyed in Ruzzia daily, so that eventually the scale starts weighting more towards a peace in reasonable terms for Ukraine. One billion here in oil, half billion there in ammo, 100 million destroying planes,... etc. There is a lot to choose from and drones are not expensive. And how exactly do you expect that Russian general, that's tasked with nuclear deterrence/retaliation watching the radar screen, to know if US ballistic missile with possible nuclear payload crossing the Russian boarder from Ukraine, with general trajectory towards Moscow will actually come down from space at some oil facilities before it reaches Moscow? I guess you expect him to know all possible trajectories that are crossing paths with St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, all RU nuclear cites, RU nuclear power plants, nuke early warning radars etc etc etc... Does anyone care to ask the rest of the world if they're ok with that? Stop playing dumb Look at the Median Age, Fertility etc if the goal is to get to 100 couples they're doing a good job. Trump has lied and broken tons of promise before, so I wouldn't read much into his "promises". With that said, if he was serious about it he could just say that there will be no new aid for Ukraine, period, and that Ukraine has until January 21 to make the best deal it can. Then have backdoor talks with Russia decide on the compromise and pass to Ukraine what they should agree to. If Zelenskiy decided to ignore that, his inner circle and generals would quickly make Z understand that he's in no position to go against the will of US, and you're delusional if you think otherwise. Anyone who has ever looked at the globe realizes that Russia is not in it for the territory. Russia cannot allow Ukraine to fall under US's sphere of influence. So securing Russia's influence, culture, granting Russian language official status in UA constitution... , and no NATO would take priority over square kilometers of land. i.e. agree for UA to hold the land for X years and then referendum, in return of putting Yanukovych (or someone like that) back in Kyiv. Independent Ukraine is impossible, even Switzerland is not independent anymore. It must fall under some sphere of influence, and as we all see, Russia cannot allow Nuland's cookies in anymore. Everyone realizes that Russia cannot hold on forever, just as everyone realizes that Russia doesn't have to as Ukraine would collapse socially, politically, and militarily way before Russia does. So continuing this is just an exercise in futility |
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Trump will want Ukraine and Russia to be quickly done and dusted so he can move onto other election promises. But I think he's wading into a conflict he has little understanding of.
I mean what will Trump do if Ukraine and Russia both reject the "peace" deal?
Ukraine won't be happy with battle lines frozen because they want back what was stolen.
Russia won't be happy with battle lines frozen because they want all of Ukraine and the current government removed.
What will Trump do then do you think? I really don't know.
I guess stopping the war is kinda easy sort of.
But keeping it stopped is a totally different beast altogether; that's the hard part.
Trump sees China as its biggest risk. As such his priority would be to drive Russia as far away from China as possible. You're still thinking of this as if Ukraine has any choice in any of this. Wars are expensive, and stopping one is easy. No money = no war. Look up what happened last time Ukrainian aid package made it through US congress. They're trying to rush the remainder of that aid out to Ukraine now, but there's only enough for Ukraine to last few more months after that...? Now consider that republicans got both chambers, and the position of speaker of the house, VP's and president on Ukraine. And now ask yourself if the next aid package will be approved, if so how long will Ukraine have to wait this time without aid, and will it be less same or more than the last one (we all see how much progress Ukraine was able to achieve with the current rate of aid). This didn't address my question. What you suggest is a way to get Ukraine to the negotiating table. That makes sense. Trump could threaten to increase aid to Ukraine to get Russia to the table. That makes sense too. But what happens if they can't agree? That's my question. If Trump reduces aid to Ukraine, it emboldens China (and others), increasing the risk to US from China. The very thing you said his priority was to avoid. If Trump increases aid to Ukraine, according to this forum thread, that will drag out the war. Trumps breaks an election promise of a quick resolve. If Trump does nothing it's an election promise broken and China emboldened. You see it easy to come up with simple answers to complicated problems when you're a presidential candidate with no responsibility. But Trump won, and when he takes office it will be his responsibility; simple answers to complicated problems are then not useful. In wars no one cares about what you want it's what you can get. Support for sending money to Ukraine is eroding, it's uneven and much lower with republicans than democrats. Discussing what if Trump decides to ignore his party, break his promise and send even more money to the person he blames for starting war and called the greatest salesman on Earth" for having solicited and received billions of dollars of U.S. military aid, is like discussing what if Martians show up and start helping Ukraine. Let's keep the discussion to what is plausible. Money is running out for Ukraine and everyone at the negotiation table knows it, and all outcomes must be based on this. In politics there's not always a good option available. Most of the time you have to compromise between bad and worse, and on top of that the bad/worse positions often flip between short and long terms. Also, Ukraine has issues with manpower, North Koreans is sending some troops to Russia, even if Trump could send more money to Ukraine what do you think it would achieve? So no, Trump will not increase aid to Ukraine and EU cannot compensate that. Zelenskiy would step down, get a cozy spot in US, and let his team negotiate the terms. In a hypothetical where he just goes mad and refuses to accept reality, his generals would find a way to force him one way or the other (as history shows). You picked the "If Trump reduces aid to Ukraine, it emboldens China (and others), increasing the risk to US from China. The very thing you said his priority was to avoid." option (I think). That's okay, just asking peoples opinion that's all. Myself, I don't know the answer. It's odd discussing unlikely hypotheticals, but i'll entertain it: -"If Trump increases aid to Ukraine" he'll go against the core of his support, and a growing majority of republicans wanting to reduce the aid and prioritize America. This would undercut his political support within his own party, republicans would get a new populists playing on the growing demands of it's base to reduce the aid to UA. This would be considered an escalation and Russia would respond with its own escalation, like getting Iranian, Belarusian and more North Korean to send their troops to help RU. China would also need to respond, and match it by increasing "unofficial" support for Russia. All this and it would do little for the main issue in Ukraine which is shortage of manpower. Sure UA can start throwing money at soldiers, but that would just further exacerbate the shortage of workers in already barely existing UA economy, and put a further dent in UA's demographics, birth rate etc, which already might be beyond the point of no return. So ton of downside and a little chance on upside. -"If Trump does nothing" continuing the current rate of aid would lead to continuation of the current dynamics at the front. Bleed out Russia a bit more, for an inevitable total military loss of Ukraine. Achieves little, with huge financial loss, political loss, and still a total Ukrainian loss. Again no up side only downside. That's why UA is asking for permission to use long ranges US missiles on Moscow. Not that it could change anything in the militarily sense for UA, but that's the only way for UA leadership to drag US/NATO directly into the conflict. What better way to achieve this than to give some Russian general responsible for nuclear deterrence few minutes to somehow make a decision if the US ballistic missile heading for Moscow has nuclear payload or not  , and if he should respond accordingly. Luckily US doesn't seem to want to start a nuclear war, despite how much Z is asking for it. |
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Silent silent silent... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/9/eu-borrell-unwavering-support-ukraine-donald-trumps-win9 Nov 2024
The European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has pledged “unwavering” support for Ukraine, on his first visit to Kyiv after Donald Trump’s US presidential win.
Trump’s victory in the United States election has caused concern in Ukraine and Europe that the volatile Republican could end Washington’s support for Kyiv’s fight against Russia’s invasion. The EU is past the stage of "OMG" and has spent months going over how to deal with the different possible situations that may emanate from Trumps winning in the US. Whatever Trump does the hope of an Ukraine left without support is mostly hopium. Nope, Europe understand the concept of survival just as much as any other regions that has lost millions of men in the last 2 WW. Germany however needs to short out the government as soon as possible. In the long term, the EU has clearly understood that the price for US support may be more than simply having a proper army. Watch this space along the next 5 years, altough the capability build-up has already started thanks to Putin. Note that if Trump wants to shut the war down really fast, all he has to do is see to it that the US sends $200-billion to Russia. [Video included at the site.]
Vlad Putin: “We Are Ready to Speak with Trump – His Behavior When There Was an Attempt on His Life, I Was Impressed
[...]
Kremlin says reports that Trump and Putin spoke in recent days are 'pure fiction' That is the problem when two compulsive liers meet uh? [...]
What you suggest is a way to get Ukraine to the negotiating table. That makes sense.
Trump could threaten to increase aid to Ukraine to get Russia to the table. That makes sense too.
[...]
Go on, please, keep on predicting what Trump is going to do, do not deprive me of the pleasure of quoting you in a couple of months. You misattributed cpu6502's quote to me. Fix it! “The clear purpose of this visit is to express European Union support to Ukraine – this support remains unwavering,” Borrell, who is set to leave office next month, told journalists in Kyiv on Saturday. you can also pull some quotes from Nuland, Boris and Biden they'd be just as relevant to keep Ukraine's morale up a tiny bit longer |
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