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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 25, 2017, 05:00:41 PM
$8k in 3 months.

I predict the peak will be $8,888, but my timerange is less precise; 2-8 months.

Oops. 12 months, not 8.
2  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Scam Report: Projects on: September 08, 2017, 04:21:50 PM
No updates. But not forgotten.
3  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] BitBill - Loaded on: August 18, 2017, 02:13:57 PM
I have a full set.
I've seen the 1s get exchanged a lot but set sales...they would not even cover the *spot* value of the damn things these days.
'Wholesale' prices are getting raised simply because of the increasing value of the growing assets held within.

I never imagined the 'selling' scenario would involve peeling coins, but if valuations rise and the market does not follow, I could envision a mass thinning of mintages during a Bitcoin Cash rally.
4  Economy / Collectibles / Re: Could bitcoin based physical coins gain value if BCC reigns supreme? on: August 01, 2017, 01:05:55 AM
Iím a bit confused...so, when I redeem a physical bitcoin after the fork, will I be redeeming just the BTC? Or will I be able to redeem that coin for BTC and Bitcoin Cash?

If it was funded prior the the fork, it will have 2 balances - one on the BTC blockchain, and another on the BCC chain. So yes, you theoretically should be able to redeem both.

Personally, I'm a bit wary of replay attacks after googling around (Remember ETH/ETC fork?), but guess we'll see soon...

1 private key-holding Casascius Bitcoin entitles:
-main chain holdings
-BCC holdings (by existence)
-Byteball holdings (if registered)
-CLAM holdings (if registered)
-Stellar holdings (if registered)

Necessarily the sum has to be greater than itself alone.

As to BCC, my understanding (not certainty) is that replay attacks cannot happen because the format between chains is incompatible.
5  Economy / Collectibles / Re: Could bitcoin based physical coins gain value if BCC reigns supreme? on: July 30, 2017, 02:21:42 AM
You hold the private keys. This gives you full choice. That is inarguably superior to having less choice.
The effect for Casascius coins is net positive.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: July 29, 2017, 05:44:18 PM
They'll be liquidating the fork coins and distributing assets...sometime.
Lots of wiggle room but the fact they are not supporting except through liquidation, is clear.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/grayscale-investments-llc-statement-regarding-203000163.html
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 20, 2017, 10:40:03 PM
Oh man, can I guess November 5th or did I just miss it?
8  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: 100BTC CASASCIUS Gold Bar on ebay on: July 15, 2017, 08:14:31 PM
 I do not know the mintage of these unfunded bars. But I think it is important to point out that the mintage of 17 speaks to the number of active version one bars, which were funded. I am not sure of the mintage of these but they are not, typically considered in band as they did not have funding.

 I would think that knowing the number of these that exist, would be important.

 I will guess $7260.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2017, 08:50:30 PM
Thanks for picking up the mantle, infofront.
Glad to be back.
10  Economy / Collectibles / Re: My Casascius Collection on: June 30, 2017, 06:03:51 PM
I have not yet seen a complete coin/holo set together in one place, but I'm pretty sure one exists... somewhere... I guess  Huh

I wouldn't be too sure.  As far as I know there's only 5 people in the world currently holding 1000 BTC coins with intact holograms.

Well, there can be only one full set.

To be clear, only 1 500BTC bar exists.  Only two were made, and one was redeemed.

 Technically, the one full set would require both 500 BTC bars, as they are from different versions.
 I happened to know that the 500 BTC bar which is redeemed, still has its peeled sticker in place :-)

 Far more likely, two sets will eventually be made, one with the redeemed, one with the unredeemed.

 I expect coblees 1000 coins to be silently acquired over the coming month.
11  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] Graded Casascius 0.10 Silver Bitcoin on: June 27, 2017, 10:11:57 PM
Can you clarify whether the marking above the C in BITCOIN  is damage or dust?
12  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] [Experiment] Auction of an unfunded 1000 BTC coin on: June 27, 2017, 09:54:12 PM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=256980.0

 Wow. 190 mintage  and it fetched 50 bit coin. You know most of these first days are being held by a few large, strong hands :-)

 For selfish reasons, as well as the good of the collectible community as a whole, I am also greatly looking forward to this auction. We are maturing!
 I anticipate that first wave HNWI  begin to enter after this multi-month correction when we start hitting 5000+. At that point, I expect the focus, finally, to be on true key dates/low mintage.

If that bears out, investments holy based on premium and no spot will win the most. If it never does they lose out fully. The risk must match the reward. And finally the market conditions are beginning to favor the reward scenario :-)
13  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] [Experiment] Auction of an unfunded 1000 BTC coin on: June 27, 2017, 03:50:40 AM
There was a first day coin - 1 btc -  which sold for 50 bit coin.

Interesting. Got more info about this? What was the first day?

I believe SgtSpike was the seller and it was for a 1 BTC.
 It might have even been discussed in the thread I have in my signature, can't remember anymore.

There are neat extrapolations for a valuation of key dates. I always like to draw the comparison of the Saint Gaudens coins.

 You get a sense of what 99% of collectors would settle for, to consider a set. And then at the top, the very few that complete true sets,  and the relative cost for those rarest pieces, compared to the rest of the set.

Key dates are gettin grabbed!
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitcoin Rally Song! on: June 27, 2017, 03:23:21 AM
Aw crap, I shut it off for awhile.
15  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] [Experiment] Auction of an unfunded 1000 BTC coin on: June 26, 2017, 04:50:07 PM
 You really need to split "gold ones "up.

 There are in band releases. Then there are extras.

 So the mintage of loaded 1000 bitcoin bars is extremely low. Less than 10.

 These coins being made available, we're not known to have existed until Charlie lee announced it. Mintage is not known, but they are a separate collectible.

 There are direct parallels with the unfunded casascius bars.
 These are both different from an in band release which has been redeemed but still has its collectible unique first bit hologram.

 We can look at how much low mintage items have sold for in the past.

There was a first day coin - 1 btc -  which sold for 50 bit coin.
 There is a series to stick a coin with a mintage of only 45. Those have sold for, I forget now, let's say 20 bit coin for a one bit coin coin.

 When you get to mintages lower than that the sample size is smaller.

 The 100 bit coin bars now have a mintage of about 16 left. I have sold those for premiums of...more than 50 bit coin.
  The 1000 bit coin coin's have a vintage of five or six. I believe Goat set the record , when he sold a 1000 bit coin coin for $1,250,000 or 1250 bit coin.
 Rarest is the 500 bitcoin bar, of which only one exists for each version.

16  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] [Experiment] Auction of an unfunded 1000 BTC coin on: June 26, 2017, 02:25:02 AM
Two signs of market maturation:
1. Set Collectors emerge
2. Spot + Premium sales emerge where Spot = 0.

 Years ago the statement was - who on Earth would pay more than $1000 for - insert random crypto collectible with premium, collectible value only.
 Now we have specimens selling for $40,000, and only 2000 of that can be attributed to the spot value of gold.
 From the people I have spoken with, my understanding is that these are being snapped up quickly.
17  Economy / Collectibles / Re: WTS:RARE! .5 BTC Silver Series 2 Casascius Coin-MS66 Graded-Only 45 Produced on: June 03, 2017, 07:11:34 PM
 The collectible market has not yet definitively decided on the most critical question -  Will premiums hold in US dollars or bitcoin? However, momentum from the first two months of this extended rally have been encouraging.

 In reverse time order and size denomination, premiums have begun reinflating to their original premiums. At this point that is true up to the one bit coin silver pieces.

 Additionally, legacy pieces have begun to show on the market and establish baseline prices. If the trend that was true in 0.1, 0.5, and one holds true, he who sells first loses and prices will continue to reinflate.

 So far on the slightly more limited mintage scale, we have seen a 25 BTC  set still available for a steel. A 100 BTC bar of mintage 16 but it was extremely questionable so it was cold. And a successful sale of one of the big bills sets, of which there are a few hundred.

 Behind the scenes, talks have begun for the mintage five redeemed 1000 bitcoin bar, and mintage two, 500 bitcoin bar.
 It is currently a sellers market, and those with the luxury of deciding which pieces they want to part with, are finally going to let go of a few.

 I think if the next few months go well, and the community continues to prevent fraud of high ticket items, we have a really good chance of establishing a new, broader base  within the collectible market. Aggressive high net worth individuals are beginning to put small portions into highly speculative plays such as these low mintage originals.

 I wish you the best of luck on future sales!
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: June 01, 2017, 04:38:20 PM
(I'm bullish, and hold a position in GBTC. This is not advice, yadayada)

We spiked to over 300% on day one.
We spiked to nearly $150 on the spike to $500.

Lots of mainstream articles are coming out now. They are the first hours and days mainstream investors have considered GBTC as an investment.
There are some aspects to it that are different from a TSLA play these authors might have considered.
...and then they write from their position of ignorance.

You can't short GBTC. It's a pink sheet stock.
Most holders have to hold for a full year. The mix of people in this camp was originally very large, and is shrinking as casual investors enter the stock.

GBTC is a slow moving ship.
Historically, it has done two things that can cause investors to gnash their teeth:

It likes to price in the new high ahead of time.
It likes to shrug off minor corrections and adhere to its 1yr+ support line.

These writers are focused on spread.
Spread is a lagging variable here, and it can go much further out of bounds than is typically true, because of the aforementioned reasons.

Because of the risk/reward profile, I tend to wait until we seem to have a confirmation of top before thinking about exiting.
Most recently that was a rebalancing sell in the 400s vs the 500s.

All the articles regarding GBTC now ignore its past behavior, and smack of a first-days understanding of the investment vehicle.
19  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] 2011 & 2013 1 BTC Casascius coins on: May 31, 2017, 08:21:12 PM
 The serial number on the back of the coins give some indication of how early or late the coins were graded.
 I have some from the first months as well, and have elected to keep them in there or original grading, especially as the community has begun to understood that all grades are not created equal in the world of casascius.

Some good looking coins in there, good luck on your sales!
20  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] Casascius 2011 S1 100BTC Bar - EU - CoinFIRM - 110 BTC (16 exist) on: May 30, 2017, 08:32:14 PM
https://casascius.uberbills.com/?address=18gkqUsh54DH9gHhLfka4rGrzf7ZQweZrn

The print looks very "strong" compared the other picture

Viz

Yeah...never seen any Casascius 2011 with print that dark. I have seen pics of a few 100 bars and none looked that dark.

I agree. The owner of this says he got them all from Casascius in 2011, and did a copy/paste of the 'receipt' email. I dont think there is anything going on here, but can never be too careful with a 100 BTC coin.

That said, it appears that the bold bits make this bar unique. 1UP in price!

Of note is that the 500 & 1,000 btc bars dont have the firstbits printed at all.. they are lasered (if i recall).


I can't speak to the single Version 1 500 BTC. But the lone Version 2 500 BTC (redeemed) does have firstbits appearing on the outside.

Of the 5 1000 BTC bars...I'm certain that at least one of the two versions has firstbits on the exterior.

The bars were some of the first pieces...so it's very plausible Mike played with different formats, early on. Would be great to know definitively.

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