I would not be surprised if the price trended down to the 30s within the next 4 - 6 months...gradually.
The run up was not sustained but happened very quickly. That means there is not a lot of support in the mid-price range, certainly not at the current level. There are a lot of people that acquired bitcoins when they were far cheaper and are sitting on tens of thousands in windfalls. Some will sell to capture or lock in some of the profits. They will rationalize that they can pick up some more later when the price falls. Or they just want to cash out a part of their portfolio - take some profits.
Then there are those that purchase when the price was sky high - they will capitulate.
The caveat to all of this is NEWS. Positive, mainstream news, perhaps due to some event, can have a massive impact on the price given the small float.
Thank you for your opinion, but I do not think that the down trend will last 4-6 months.
There is a decreasing trend (red line) incredibly linear, and if it does not change, the price under $ 50 will have at the end of August, 30-40 at September.
But we are still above the minimum of 9 June, 4 May and of course the bottom of the 16th April.
Personally, I think the biggest chance to break out as the rebound from recent lows on $ 93 - 79.
If we get on, we descend about much too low.
edit: even Bitstamp is still above the lows of May and June. But as the next fall it will not be true.
But the most important thing is still ahead of us
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