582
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: June 12, 2013, 04:12:27 PM
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I don't believe we're in a real bubble deflation phase anymore. The higher lows trend has actually not been broken yet. If you look carefully at the charts the only real 'lows' post-crash are 50, 79 and 88 (the most recent one). To falsify the 'we're only in a correction' hypothesis we need to break below 88 again and then 79.
Or they could repeat lows (around 88, 79 or 55) and the price bounce. Then we know that we have probably stagnate behind.
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583
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Economy / Speculation / Re: If you're not out, get out.
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on: June 12, 2013, 10:54:33 AM
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shortly: When I look at the development of Bitcoin prices for 12 months: Last year in June, it was possible to buy Bitcoin for around $ 5 In January this year about $ 15 in April this year about $ 55 now $ 88 Even if it was half the price than it is now, it would be appreciation of 900%. This is not a bad investment for me
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584
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: June 11, 2013, 04:50:28 PM
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We are in the "early/pricing" stage of an exponentially growing (later: S-growing) phenomenon. If everything goes as it has done in several bubbles before, the great bubble will form when 1-2% of the population had adopted the technology. For Bitcoin, this means about 50 million adapters that actually use bitcoin for something. This "something" has so far been lagging, though.
I withdrew my prediction for $300 for 2013, but this does not mean that I was sure it will not happen. In 2014 it will happen for sure. Or some 1.5-sigma event happens.
The great moves have been able to push the price up roughly by an order of magnitude. We need 4 such moves and the rest of this year is not long enough time. April-June 2014 is now my target.
Current price I would just buy as much as I can.
Are you expecting at least one 10-fold move this year, though? I think it is certainly possible for it not to happen (in which case this would be a lame year of anything between 500-3000% growth ) but considering: 1. bitcoin adoption rates even now, 2. and the spread of information rate, 3. and the ease of developing Bitcoin-services, 4. and the superiority of bitcoin over all the competitors 5. and the upstartness of altcoins etc etc Everything points to me a violent upmove once the profit-taking consolidation ends. I agree!, I think consolidation has already ended at least at these low prices it has, so i'm predicting 180 within 2 weeks. I don't think we can make a new all time high so soon, but i do think we can get to 180 and stay in that range + - 10% It is true, that if we get over 110 and the price will continue to rise, we will see some early shopping with larger volumes of purchases. A lot of people selling at least part of Bitcoin and they have fiat on purchases for 30 - 50. If the trend turnover, they will have to quickly buy below the 120 that they did not get to train ..
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585
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: June 11, 2013, 01:19:14 PM
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I'm currently 100% fiat again, looking for a suitable price to buy back in (very speculatively, I'm looking at something around USD52, since I think USD50 will be a psychological trigger with mass-buy in, that will see the beginning of a steady, sustainable, non-bubbled climb)
Oh boy, we are really all on the same page. In fact, after reading your post, I decided to put my biggest bid a tad higher, it was at $52.25 and now it's now at $53.75 (aprox., I'm trading in EUR). My biggest bid during the April, 10th crash was unfilled, as it was at 37ish€, and I missed it for such a low margin... I think the absolute low was 37.8€ or something like that. I still did a nice profit as I re-loaded the truck at an average price of 50€ish ($65ish), but still I don't want that to happen again Ok I put mine at 53.85! Who's going to give more? with this logic, everyone writes that the price may fall to 30-50, but we prefer to give orders to 50-70
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592
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Growth is slowing
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on: May 31, 2013, 07:37:12 PM
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Good point. It's kinda hard to determine which term length is the right one though. Should all history necessarily be considered? If not, what part of it is relevant? I'm not completely sure.
In any case, I do not expect the pace of development such as five months of this year will be stable for several years
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596
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: May 30, 2013, 03:59:25 PM
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Today's or short term outlook?
I hope that we will see 137-140 in 1-3 days ... (but the next day it's the weekend, so I do not know) For the last few weekends, the weekend dip has been reversed. Price rises on the weekend and, if anything, dips quite a bit on Monday, Tuesday and even Wednesday, before starting to climb again. pros off on break and weekend traders on the rise. if the pros leave the boat... maybe edit: traders have a week to work and on weekends traded
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598
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: May 30, 2013, 11:24:30 AM
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In other news ... ouch Dear Mt. Gox Customers, In order to comply with strict anti-money laundering regulations we are now requiring account verifications for all accounts performing non-Bitcoin currency deposits and withdrawals. Please see our statement for the full explanation: https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130530.htmlBest regards, Mt. Gox Team Not a great surprise really ... I would imagine anyone who does not want to be verified has been getting their cash off Gox or buying BTC post Dwolla Account verifications it's a bad joke. When I worked with epassporte I made a debit card with my cat name on it. Same with my LR account (I had 50 cents there , damn FBI). I think that's a good message Your. Verification of accounts is better than fear for your money in their account. After all (Dwolla, LR ...) they must prove that the Bitcoin exchange is not money laundering and terrorist financing.
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600
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Liberty Reserve shutdown is a boost for Bitcoin?
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on: May 29, 2013, 05:31:31 PM
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One aspect I hadn't thought of until just now: Many of the news reports are mentioning bitcoins in one way or another while talking about the Liberty Reserve bust. Some talk about their similarities (anonymity, worldwide transfer of funds), while others talk about their differences (bitcoin does not have a central authority to arrest and shutdown the system). But as they say, any publicity is good publicity. There are people who are either hearing about bitcoins for the first time, or heard about them a while ago and are saying "WTF, bitcoins are worth $130, ten times what they were when I read about them in 2011, I should invest now before they go up another 10x!" So we might just see a "publicity bump", with another big bubble forming very soon!
In other words, "BUY! BUY! BUY!"
+1
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