441
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Any reason for the small pop in price?
|
on: February 13, 2015, 09:43:31 PM
|
Probably just a speculation/artificial pump. There are no noticeable positive news to justify it.
Good to see price going up, but there's nothing to get excited about.
There doesn't have to be. Markets move on supply and demand and not much else.
|
|
|
444
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: February 11, 2015, 08:36:46 PM
|
There are no traders dumping at this price. Any coins sold come from miners or more likely Bitpay vendors. I'm pretty sure this was a bear raid or price pumpers dumping. No reason for a legitimate seller to suddenly dump when there are apparent large buys going on (on Bitstamp). Whale sells a small amount at market to incite panic/hit stops, lemmings sell into his walls = instant long position at lower average price than he would have gotten buying higher up, where he risks slippage and aggressive selling into his buying. At the same time it gives a false impression as to the direction of the market.
|
|
|
445
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: February 11, 2015, 08:32:39 PM
|
Think we might go near $200 in like 48 hours.
Not with this weak volume. I see some indications and patterns on the chart that tell me it should go somewhat low this time. I could be wrong though. A lot of buy support around 210 and the volume is low at this time. So the dump might not go far. Volume is the only indicator you need.
|
|
|
448
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Was that the bottom ?
|
on: February 11, 2015, 07:11:15 PM
|
It also looks similar to the Oct-Nov picture in there. Those were only a-b-c corrections of a larger bear trend though, so if this is the same thing again then we will see more downside after the next 'c' wave up to the 400 area. I don't know what it will be, I do believe it's quite likely at this point we will see another wave up first beyond 300 but after that it's anyone's guess whether the bear goes on or we move into a new bull market. Another retest of the bottom right now would be too early I think, the market needs a few more months to gather momentum before it's ready again to retest it if it wants to do that. I think you really have to consider volume, since it is essentially the amount of activity in a market. This is where I think EW theory has a weakness. The recent selloff was on far, far more volume than the previous ones, greatly increasing the amount of coins that changed hands, reducing the amount of "floating coins" available to sell, increasing demand on the remaining supply. Overall this decreases the chance of another crash below $200.
|
|
|
453
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: February 10, 2015, 12:22:03 AM
|
Hmm Old Crypto taking big positions at BTCe. Could be bullish.
PPC was pumped and dumped like some whore. 200% up in 2 hours then dump to starting point. Doesn't mean the buyer(s) dumped it all. Looks like the buying ran into heavy sell orders by the looks of those candle wicks. Probably bagholders cashing out. Just wonder why they would choose to resurrect those old school coins.
|
|
|
455
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: February 09, 2015, 08:08:53 PM
|
What many traders are missing now is the significance of the selling climax to $160, and the subsequent retest of that area. It is an enormous sign of strength for that many coins to have been transferred from weak hands to strong. I keep hearing "the downtrend is still intact!" Well, technically it is, but you'd better have a close look at that super high volume area that stopped the selling, or you're ignoring a big message the market is trying to tell you.
I don't think most of those coins went from weak to strong hands. They went from bulls getting margin calls to people who will flip them for a quick profit. I think there is a short squeeze coming, but that doesn't mean that I think the bear market is over. Could be. But the chart doesn't lie. Bulls may have been margin called but that would have contributed to the selloff as their long liquidation would sell into market. Someone stepped in to stop the selling, cover their shorts and scoop up those coins, or else the market would have gone lower. Somebody was willing to buy in hopes to sell at a higher price later. Simple logic there. Also important and related (and slightly off topic)... a bulls market's success is defined by how much selling (supply) is introduced into it. Conversely bear markets are successful because there is not enough buying to stop the selling and bring supply/demand into equilibrium. Now if the "Four Punch Raiders" are ultimately bullish, it makes sense to remove as much selling as possible so to not impede their pumping. They need to corner the market, essentially owning most if not all of the floating supply. When you think about this, it is logical... remove enough supply from the market--price wants to go up. Increase enough supply--price goes down. If you were bullish and trading with huge sums, you'd be annoyed if dumpers dumped into your rally too Also you wouldn't accumulate a large position out in the open, you'd do it silently, spread out over time at market bottoms. Conversely at market tops, the big money distributes slowly over time (or quickly, I've seen both) to new buyers for huge profits. When this additional supply enters the market, it crashes and the game begins again. 3600 coins introduced by miners every day is not much compared with the bats some of these guys are swinging with. And who knows what % of those 3600 coins even make it to exchanges. I think we agree on the direction the market is ultimately headed, but in my opinion, the "Four Punch Raiders" are simply good traders who can read price/volume action, and join the other good traders on big moves. Judging from some of the sizes of their orders, they are making an absolute killing. Can't say I can complain--I have joined them. My trading lot size is not small and has increased substantially over the last few months. But that's how professional traders aim to do things, they have to accumulate from weak hands and scare the public in to selling to them, then it's easy to mark the price up later on. It's pretty predatory, but such is life. I think so many traders lose money because they simply don't know what's happening behind the scenes and don't understand why the market goes up and down so much... but watching the volume can give you a pretty good indication when the deep pockets are involved. In Wall Street these are usually pit traders, market makers, specialists--guys close to the action with great insider connections. With Bitcoin it is likely early adopters who understand the trading game, guys close to exchanges, trading syndicates, and people involved in mining circles and news sites who get market-changing announcements and rumors before anyone else.
|
|
|
456
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: February 09, 2015, 06:38:28 PM
|
Does this image have significance of a falling wedge which would be indicative of a possible trend reversal? It was posted in the trading sim thread. Not mine. I just found it illuminating. I figure we could just continue longer at this stage but it still doesn't change the fact that a reversal seems to be suggested? Albeit possibly short lived due to the proliferation of shorts. Just wondering. Also wondering where those dark profits will go, i.e., back into BTC or LTC. It's kind of a stretch. A triangle or whatever continuation pattern you'd choose to use would fit well in the area with the numbered waves, but not encompassing a buying climax on high volume. IMO if you're going to draw triangles and use them in analysis, they cannot be arbitrary. The must connect with multiple high volume areas and the price action should never "jump out of bounds" very much in order to be a valid pattern. Also the connection points should not be super far apart unless you're on a 3d or weekly chart. They are tools for you to understand and identify trading ranges and lower volume consolidation periods, not lines that simply tell you where to trade. What many traders are missing now is the significance of the selling climax to $160, and the subsequent retest of that area. It is an enormous sign of strength for that many coins to have been transferred from weak hands to strong. I keep hearing "the downtrend is still intact!" Well, technically it is, but you'd better have a close look at that super high volume area that stopped the selling, or you're ignoring a big message the market is trying to tell you.
|
|
|
457
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: BECOME A MILLIONAIRE OPEN PROJECT: Turn 100$ into a true life.
|
on: February 08, 2015, 11:55:55 PM
|
I don't know if the op is for real or not, but he is about a year too late with what he's trying to do. Crypto may bounce back, but compared to last spring this scene is on life support with the funeral director on standby.
Fly I'm gonna tell you a big secret that you won't find in any book, any newspaper nor any trading "expert" will tell you. Look, EVERY speculative market in normal conditions (no external factors like Central Banks direct injections) follows the same pattern in the long term: 1. INDIFFERENCE ("This thing doesn't move, impossible to make money with it") 2. LOW INTEREST ("Well, it has moved a little, sure will fall again) 3. INTEREST ("It's rising consistenly, seems a good buying opportunity") 4. POPULARITY ("The thing start appearing on the news, experts start reccomending to buy it") 5. CRAZE ("Everybody makes money from it, it's expected to rise infinitely. "Experts" remain silent") 6. DISAPPOINTMENT ("It's not rising as expected, instead is falling a little bit. "Experts" reccomend to hold and to wait for a new money that will never come") 7. FEAR ("This thing is crashing! What the hell is happening! "Experts" reccomend to sell, cause it will go lower") 8. FREE FALL OR CONTINUED FALL ("It was a bubble! Look it's going lower and lower! What a scam! "Experts" justify it as a fraudulent scheme and clean their hands) ... And the cycle starts again. This pattern appears in any speculative thing, but in cryptos the "long term" concept is not so long. As you can see, the only ones who make money consistenly are those who enter at points 1,2,3. When nobody trust in this shit. At these points exist the possiblity to lose all the investiment cause the chiken dies, but as profits are always greater than 100%, those investors are the winners in the long term. Now, tell me, at which point are we right now in BTC and altcoins in general? This. Pretty much. 1-4 is the accumulation cycle by smart money, 5-8 is the distribution cycle to future weak hands. This cycle repeats over and over again. Wake up to this, trade on the right side of the market and you will make money. It is difficult to do, because it goes against human nature and requires discipline. However, trading syndicates and other investment professionals (whose actions are not governed by emotion) do it every single day in hundreds of markets. That said, this probably only applies to Bitcoin and maybe a few of the other alts with significant trading volume. I've seems dozens of them fade into nothingness and would recommend staying away from most of them.
|
|
|
459
|
Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
|
on: February 08, 2015, 08:13:52 PM
|
I think it is worthwhile to add this snippet. This criticism makes sense. Everybody thought Bitcoin was gonna bring them freedom and liberty, but what it has brought them are three different kinds of entrapment. Let’s take these lessons, and make a Bitcoin that is useless to Wall Street, that doesn’t automatically create a cartel of miners, and that doesn’t leave a power vacuum for development which some Foundation will fill.
Read thru all the twaddle written by the GNU-people during the 80s and 90s and look at where GNU/Linux is now. The technology will carve its own path if there is any merit to it. Yeah the guy is obviously jaded and slightly arrogant having worked for the NSA and other governmental bodies. And he has a disdain for Libertarians, which doesn't exactly come off as convincing and colors his argument as ignorant. And now he's on team Ethereum. Hmmmm...
|
|
|
|