Re-reading some of this thread I realize my grammar goes way down hill when I type from my iphone.
Yes, your bookie can cheat you. But that's much less of a problem than trusting a central authority.
There isn't a central authority just an entity that you and your counter party agree to trust for a single transaction.
Competing "authorities" is way better than trying to use a block chain for external data. Lets use the intrade example.
(I'm not an internet gambler so I may not describe how intrade works correctly)
Intrade has a prediction market with enough saturation in the market that it reaches a critical mass become a reliable indicator.
Alice wants to place a wager with Bob on an intrade event. Alice does not trust Bob and vice versa.
They want the bet to be settled in bitcoin and both will cheat the other player if given a chance since that's the way it seems to go on the internet.
Ben starts an anonymous intrade settlement service on TOR. There are many, this is Ben's.
Ben publishes a public key and claims to honestly sign and report the outcome of every intrade event. (This could be done by intrade directly but lets assume they aren't interested.)
To decide whether to trust Ben Bob and Alice each examine the Bitcoin block chain proper looking for all script contents containing Ben's public key. They each independently verify the results against their known list of intrade outcomes. Each is satisfied that Ben reports results honestly. They also decide on a time oracle using the same process.
Using a combination of the techniques on the contract wiki entry Bob and Alice exchange a transaction with the following properties:
If the event happens Alice wins, if not Bob wins. If the agreed upon time has passed each gets their money back. (This handles event cancellation but it could be done directly by Ben without the time oracle.)
Benefits of this scenario:
Neither Alice nor Bob can cheat each other.
Ben cannot collude with either because he doesn't know about the bet.
Bitcoin becomes the escrow agent.
Charlie and Dan don't trust Ben's intrade service. They are not forced to use it.
Variations of this scenario:
All miners are owned by governments that do not allow gambling. Because of this Ben charges a fee for each event pairing. The fee covers the generation of a unique public key for each matched bet. Ben does not publicly publish paring results until a few days after the event has occurred. In the interim he only provides event results to Alice or Bob. The bitcoin network still validates all betting transactions because they appear no different than regular transactions. By the time event results are published the transaction is too far down the chain to reverse.