At what point would we leave "return to normal" behind?
Pretty sure it's the Despair part that happens next. :/
hmmmmm....
Can you tell me where you think the price was at "take off" during "awareness stage" and then tell me
exactly who those institutional buyers were at that time... as per the chart?
V curious.
Accordingly we still don't have
significant "institutional money" so would this not put us somewhere far further back on the chart?
Serious question... what significant institutional investors money was getting in at say $200? because as far as I remember - institutional money was about as interested in BTC as dogshit- until very recently -and even recently they have surely hardly even dipped their toe? or can you point to where institutional investors came in? and who do you suppose those institutional investors are ?
Curious as to your logic.
Or do you just mean we are about to reach a despair phase in a lesser cycle?
(ps also I hear an estimate that there are 300,000 people that hold more than a whole Bitcoin-are you saying that the "Public" have been buying already? again I don't see it yet- do you suppose it could be that we are much further back on the chart - I ask again?)
(pps- could it be that we are still taxiing on runway - prior to take off?)
(or could it be that one size fits all generic charts - just are not accurate models?)
I understand that your questions are for cAPSLOCK; however, I just cannot resist chiming in... Go figure!
Over the years, that chart has come up frequently, and it does seem to capture some aspects of various interim bubbles, and it may even capture some aspects of some speculative assets that go through a shorter life cycle and maybe just one hype cycle.
I am with you, empowering, that it does not seem to capture bitcoin very well, and it could be that we are quite early in such a life-cycle curve, if such a curve would be applicable to bitcoin in any kind of meaningful sense.
If bitcoin were to be some kind of flash in the pan that ends up dwindling, then yeah, we could see it petering out, and none of us know whether ultimately bitcoin will peter out - especially if it were to get sabotaged or coopted in some way, right?
Bitcoin has surely shown a certain level of robustness, and I think that some of us HODLers recognize that robustness, and we have been rewarded financially (and generously) for HODLing through the good and bad times of bitcoin.. while recognizing that bitcoin is still building and bitcoin has a foundation that provides a considerable amount of upside potential, which would be still putting us in the likely early stages of any growth curve that is even a bit earlier than institutional investors in the above depiction, as you say.
It is a bit unclear about whether some BIG ASS upside curve is necessary in all asset classes, and especially if their life cycle ends up being a couple hundred years, then you may have a different kind of curve.
Maybe the sum of the situation is that this particular graph does not apply very well to bitcoin - because even though we have gone through numerous hype cycles, those hype cycles may show up as blips within a larger s-curve adoption scale - and sure, what are the odds of an s-curve adoption, certainly not 100%.... but I thin that a lot of bitcoin HODLers/accumulators recognize that there are decent chances in bitcoin to go through s-curve adoption, and that we remain in early years in the lower levels of such an s-curve slope.
Personally, I am quite satisfied with my investment, and I would even be content if BTC prices were to languish between $1k and $4k for several years; however, many of us likely recognize that it is more likely that we are going up from here (at least if we consider the longer term), and we have decent chances of continuing to be rewarded generously for our bitcoin investment, whether we are just beginning to establish a stake or if we have already established a decent stake.
Edit: In the meantime, some of the Chinese might get left out, if they do not take actions to protect their bitcoin investments, and if they have been a longer term bitcoin investor, they will likely figure out ways to store their bitcoin and to exchange them in the future, or perhaps, just become longer term HODLers, until the regulatory regime becomes more friendly - and like many folks said, a lot of this may just be FUD that changes chinese options, without completely removing their options (including use of local bitcoins and other direct means).
we are at the bear trap phase, ignition has been lit, be prepared to see something that is the complete opposite of the last 3 years
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