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1  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Are nonces predictable? on: March 26, 2019, 06:02:08 PM
Nonce seems to be "random" enough, but few block analysis mention otherwise. Quoting from https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/q/24650,

Edited: Apr 18

I wrote a small program to collect some statistical data. From recent Dogecoin block #186,299 to #145,000 (the last mandatory update)

total 41,300 blocks

    number of odds = 3,891 (9.42%)
    number of evens = 37,409 (90.58%)
        ratio of odd to even is about 1:10
    Among the evens, the number of multiples of 256 = 35,106
        85% of total
        93.866% of evens

Update: 4/20

I recently also checked the nonces from block 552,780 to 253,898 of Litecoin.

totally 298,883 blocks.

    number of odds = 42,963 (14.374521%)
    number of evens = 255,920 (85.625479%)
    Among the evens, the number of multiples of 256 = 225,746
        75.529890% of total


I wonder if this could be a self-fulfilling prophecy? As in in the early days some large miners may have done some analysis and found that something like 60% of the nonces were even, which could totally be explained by statistical variance of course but still some large miners may have decided to just look for even nonces based on these findings. This obviously skews the statistics more in favor of even nonces, because more hashrate is only looking for those nonces now. After some time you may find that 90% of the nonces turn out to be even as more and more miners stop looking at odd nonces like some kind of perpetually reinforced superstitious bias. I mean statistics don't lie. Wink
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: November 28, 2017, 12:29:50 PM
So far Bitcoin is following the pattern of the Jesse Livermore Speculative Chart. In other words, we may have seen the top for this year.

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/899825383079636992

Still missing a '10' there. I think we'll be seeing a real correction after the next move up to $6000, then some more fork drama and a failed attempt to move everyone over to Bcash until BTC finally breaks free for real towards $10k and beyond.

Sorry for shamelessly quoting myself here, but the above is pretty much what has happened. There was a move up to $5000 after this, then a correction to $3000, then all the way up to $7800 followed by a correction to $5500 together with more fork drama and a failed attempt to move everyone over to Bcash. And now BTC has broken free from its restraints and is about to pass $10k. Cool Kiss
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: November 26, 2017, 03:06:02 AM
I went all in on Bitcoin Cash when it was trading at 0.14 against SegWitCoin.

Haters gonna hate
enjoying my millions made on Bitcoin Cash  Cool

I don't have to prove the brainwashed idiots wrong, the market does that for me already  Grin

Bitcoin Cash IS Bitcoin

Yeah sure buddy, keep telling yourself that with Bitcoin over $8800 and your silly Bcash sitting at $1542 right now going up and down like an idiot. Roll Eyes
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: This family bet it all on Bitcoin on: November 09, 2017, 07:05:37 PM
I can respect their decision. They seem to be aware of the risks and they know life is not about what you own and how much money and things you have. Having lived a minimalist lifestyle for 15 years myself I know that life can be beautiful and rich without having much money or possessions. I think it's a valuable life lesson, and personally now that I actually have money I still don't care about material stuff. I don't even own a car, and I don't see any reason to have one even now. Life is in what you make it and what you want out of it, and that can be very different for each person. I want to see a better world come of this, and just seeing that process evolve is already giving me plenty of satisfaction in life. Smiley
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2017, 06:23:23 PM
Everything I'm seeing suggests Segwit2x will have a small amount of miners

Everything?

Well, there is the fact that the overwhelming majority of blocks are indicating support for S2X.

I'm indicating for a chocolate fudge sundae, but I still don't have one.

Yeah, I get it. Whether the stated preference is honored in the end is an unknown. I'm just pointing out that it takes a special type of myopia to be unable to see the most prevalent and the only non Sybil-able indication of preference.

Doesn't mean shit when there is no real money on the line yet. Once the fork happens and the market assigns a value to both sides of the fork it will be a whole new ballgame for miners and you can be sure the large majority will be following the money.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: October 10, 2017, 01:34:25 PM
legacy chain?

what does that even mean.

What is a valid fork with the same history sine before August 1st?

who decides?

The market decides. I think it's pretty clear the market wants to stay on the chain with the most competent developers working on it, which is clearly Core right now. Bcash is a disaster with its EDA mess which also shows you need competent devs who properly test and peer review the code. B2X for the same reason will become just another altcoin. I'm not getting into any conspiracy theories here, they are very boring and uninteresting.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: August 22, 2017, 05:13:51 PM
So far Bitcoin is following the pattern of the Jesse Livermore Speculative Chart. In other words, we may have seen the top for this year.

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/899825383079636992



Still missing a '10' there. I think we'll be seeing a real correction after the next move up to $6000, then some more fork drama and a failed attempt to move everyone over to Bcash until BTC finally breaks free for real towards $10k and beyond.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 22, 2017, 11:21:45 AM
It's going to be a shitshow , in my personal opinion.

By launching BCH Bitmain have already fucked the NYA. Everyone else will slowly fall away.

By launching BCH Bitmain have increased their influence over the price of each chain as they can manipulate hashrate at will between them both. They've granted themselves a longer period of time in which to milk money out of the sha256 ecosystem and another mechanism with which to do so. Segwit 2x signalling remains above 90%, no sign of it falling away. Core have made their position on segwit2x very clear so I'm not sure why or how you think a negotiated agreement is possible at this point.

Manipulating hashrate doesn't do much to influence the price, I think it will accomplish the opposite of what they want because BCH's total hashrate is now about equal with BTC's total hashrate and their difficulty will adjust again today. After this difficulty change hashrate will all move back into BTC and BCH will be left with months of extremely slow blocks lol. Imagine what that will do to the price of BCH. Maybe they will fork again to change difficulty, that should be fun to watch. Cheesy
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2017, 04:37:30 PM
I've sold all my BCH already at 0.2, BCH might go up to 0.3 or even 0.4 BTC just like ETC did relative to ETH but I'm not taking any chances. I just don't see a future long term for BCH. Roger and co imo are just pumping BCH to try and gather attention away from Segwit activation on BTC and attract more miners to their altcoin with the upcoming difficulty adjustment. I think there will be a dump after difficulty adjusts 110 blocks from now (around 24-36 hours), so I will be trading the swings for a while to try and get some more BTC. Smiley
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Old hands, what is your current engagement level? on: August 12, 2017, 02:54:43 PM
Now that every single person here is quite stunningly rich, at least for tonight, has your level of engagement with crypto land plateaued a little or are you as turned on as ever?

Are you increasing your portfolios with wonderful shitcoins, staying put completely, selling like mad or too busy with ladyboys wiping their posteriors on your faces?

I am as turned on as ever and maybe even more so now than I was when I started getting involved early 2013. I started with a long term position in BTC and also tried to make more coins day trading like almost everyone else who just got into Bitcoin. The first couple of years I was only losing coins trading, but I didn't give up and the last year I've started to become better at it and now it is my full time job. I trade a few shitcoins as well, but I have no long term position in them. Except for Litecoin, I plan to keep some of them around for a few years. The large bulk of my money stays in Bitcoin however, not Bitcoin Cash, or Bitcoin2x garbage.. only the real Bitcoin. I buy and sell all the time when I trade, but most of my coins are staying put in my Trezor and I'm not planning to sell those any time soon. I don't want to hold onto much paper fiat, bank money just isn't my cup of tea.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Announcements of Exchanges regarding giving bitcoin holders 'their BitcoinCash' on: July 23, 2017, 11:52:21 PM
First I think BCC needs to show they even have enough miner support to find any blocks to keep their chain alive. If they can't find blocks their fork will be dead before it even became alive. Exchanges can always decide to honor their customers their BCC coins if its chain survives and there is demand for it. Until then I don't see any reason why exchanges would need to give any attention at all to some phantom coin that doesn't exist and might never come to life.
12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Spells of Genesis - Innovating the Game Economy with BitCrystals (BCY) on: July 12, 2017, 02:05:33 PM
Very bad idea.  Ethereum is not scalable, had a network failure, and is going down the drain.  Any token or game asset on a bitcoin blockchain is the most secure.  No need to create a shitcoin on top of a scamcoin.

I agree, Ethereum is not a good blockchain to tie our cards to. What will we do when it hard forks again and creates two different chains? The only other blockchain besides Bitcoin that is secure and good enough to use for game assets would be Litecoin in my opinion.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price after 1 August - Down 50% on: June 29, 2017, 06:49:09 PM
I believe a persistent chain split would be a disaster for Bitcoin and will almost certainly lead to one of the altcoins taking over Bitcoin's role. Probably Litecoin as it is the closest cousin to Bitcoin in spirit, which is why I have diversified part of my coins into LTC a while ago. I don't see Ethereum taking over, it's just too centralized and can't scale nearly as well as LTC can. Also Ether supply has no limit, which is a no-no.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price after 1 August - Down 50% on: June 29, 2017, 05:57:34 PM
I don't understand why people think BTC price will reach $5000 after Segwitt or hit the moon one day! I think you all agree that the price is totally dependent on demand. So why should Segwitt or any improvement in the blockchain increase demand hence raise the price? If such a demand exist we would have seen it already. I just trying to be realistic here and trying to decide whether to sell or hold before it all goes mad because I can't find any reason yet for the price to go up! Help me here speculators.

Think about it, many people are scared of August 1st and what's going to happen. They are sitting in fiat or have fled into altcoins to wait out the storm. What do you think is going to happen when disaster is avoided and Segwit activates and people are cheering and celebrating for finally getting Bitcoin out of its years long deadlock? Oh man if you can't even see the obvious answer to this question I guess there is no helping you.
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Spells of Genesis - Innovating the Game Economy with BitCrystals (BCY) on: June 16, 2017, 04:19:54 PM
My SATOSHICARD is now priced at 2BTC. Price will continue to fall. Who knows how far.

https://swapbot.tokenly.com/bot/eshriek/welcome-to-the-satoshi-fold#choose

don't sell IT now

I can't sell it now even tho I'm trying. SATOSHICARD now 1.9 BTC!

Too expensive mate. That's almost $5k USD right now for a simple card used in a mobile game that's being actively played by at most 3k users in total globally. I might buy it for 1 BTC, just because it would be a poetic price for the inventor of blockchain and Bitcoin.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can ETH hype be good for BTC? on: June 13, 2017, 10:49:51 AM
It's good long term for BTC due to increased interest in crypto, and once ETH hype dies down people will see that BTC is more decentralized, stable and secure and has the most talented developers under its belt. But short term it might be bad because when the ETH bubble pops it's going to also scare some BTC holders.
17  Local / Nederlands (Dutch) / Re: de gehele identiteit on: June 08, 2017, 12:19:56 AM
Toch wel erg zonde als je 20k hebt verdiend en dat 10k in moet leveren... terwijl als je 10k had verloren je volgens mij niets teruggekregen had van de belastingdienst?

Hoezo moet je 10k inleveren als je 20k hebt verdiend met de waardestijging van Bitcoin? Volgens mij hoef je alleen maar je waarde in Bitcoins in te vullen in Box 3 van je belastingaangifte en dan betaal je daarover vermogensbelasting indien het totaal meer is dan 25k euro. Als je een beetje handelt als bijverdienste of als hobby en daarmee 20k hebt verdiend dan betaal je nog steeds alleen vermogensbelasting daarover, alleen indien het handelen je voltijd baan is dan betaal je daadwerkelijk inkomstenbelasting over de winst die je maakt. Heb je gewoon een baan en daarnaast een aantal Bitcoins waarvan de waarde flink is gestegen dan hoef je van de winst echt geen 50% weer in te leveren.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: June 07, 2017, 02:30:41 PM
Lol... says the pathetic blocknet shill advertising blocknet all over bitcointalk and desperately trying to undermine bitcoin.

Do you know bitcoin is the most secure, liquid and immutable crypto out there? Do you know bitcoin is here for good while shitcoins will come and go?  Tech doesn't mean jack shit when bitcoin has the best developers and can adapt the tech of any shitcoin using sidechains and smartcontracts

best developers, don't make me laugh  Grin
those "best" developers are unable to even increase the block size limit
they have crippled Bitcoin more than they have done any good
SegWit is a clusterfuck of unnecessary code written in the name of a soft fork and now they want to hard fork Bitcoin with UASF in order to enforce their soft fork. Those guys are absolute morons and hypocrites

Bullshit, Core isn't even behind BIP148 so you might want to check up on your facts. Segwit is a genius piece of code and is being criticized by incompetent fools like you who can only parrot other fools who don't understand code either. Talking about morons and hypocrits. Roll Eyes
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: An Open Letter to the SEC is Coming. Is This Due? on: June 01, 2017, 11:45:23 AM
What will happen to ETH when the US suddenly declares Vitalik Buterin as the enemy of the State? It will collapse in a flash.

and if they try to do it with bitcoin... Who'll be getting arrested as the creator of Bitcoin? No-one.

Hopefully Craig Wright, that would be poetic justice.
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Spells of Genesis - Innovating the Game Economy with BitCrystals (BCY) on: May 30, 2017, 01:11:48 PM
Any idea the % to draw an epic/legendary?

It's 1% to draw an epic card, legendary card I don't have enough data for yet but I presume it's around 0.1% to draw one. Of course you can also pay 45 gems for a guaranteed epic and decent chance for a legendary.

You can check https://www.sogassets.com/ to find stats of all the available cards.
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