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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: So what's your game plan for this year's halving? on: June 28, 2016, 02:33:38 PM
My plan is to short shortly after halving - when people don't see the price increases they expected.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Incoming third bubble..? on: June 28, 2016, 07:04:26 AM

I think this is spot on. But we'll need to wait a bit longer than this December.

In the MtGox chart the pre-bubble pad to the $15 peak is 273 days and then the part that you don't show from the $15 peak to the bubble start is another 137 (to 1.01.2013 - the price then was still about $13.5 and it was about to start bubbling up). The downslide is 133 days - so it is about three times less.

Now the downslide was 413 days (to 14.01.2015 the bitstamp lowest point) or 629 (18.08.2015 - the bitfinex lowest point).

So if we want to have the same proportions the next bubble should start either

about 1200 days after 14.01.2015 - that is May 2018
or
about 1900 days after 18.08.2015 - that is October 2020

Wow that was surprising even for me how far away it gets.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Incoming third bubble..? on: June 28, 2016, 06:23:31 AM
I am hoping over 800$ within few weeks before halving and if this third one became strong and price become stable at over 800, $1k will not be hard to reach.

It's hard to say/predict. From what I have learned bitcoin is not to be analyzed like traditional charts.
Technical analysis seems close to impossible with bitcoin.

That is the opposite of what I experience. I would never try to TA traditional stocks - their charts look so random - while in bitcoin the TA rules more or less work (stuff like parts of EW, divergencies, trend lines, etc).
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Whales trying hard to push the price down to trigger FOMO before big rise on: June 26, 2016, 04:23:22 PM
Pump and dump my boy, pump and dump.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Halvening 99% ready, rocket only 2 weeks to go before moon launch!! on: June 26, 2016, 03:56:37 PM
even prices a bit down currently i won't worry about that i guess it's time to buy more and the fuel almost fully charged before rocket launch with 2 weeks remaining we will going to the moon together we all should be get ready

The more I read posts like this the more convinced I am that there will be a correction after halving.  The supply reduction will not play out immediately and when everyone is loaded to the max and the price starts to slowly slide down the result is a crash.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Halvening 99% ready, rocket only 2 weeks to go before moon launch!! on: June 26, 2016, 02:13:37 PM
If we are not rallying into the halving - then those who hold because of halving will start selling a few days after it and we'll have a bigger correction.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: is it time to sell? on: June 26, 2016, 11:35:34 AM


Looks like the neck is being broken in this Head and Shoulder. Target about 580.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is this a joke? Shorter with infinite money on Bitfinex? on: June 23, 2016, 02:37:54 PM


To see it in more details (for example there are only 17.5K BTC swaps - not 20K as the long term picture above suggests) - see a shorter term chart at:

https://bfxdata.com/combined/btc

The total amount of shorts is about 17.5K - this is far from the peak which was about 34 a year and a half ago. It has also decreased from 19K a few hours ago, some shorters have already taken their profits.  You must have caught a very not representative moment with your picture.

It is the longs that are crazy - and they have not decreased on that drop - I guess we'll need another one for that.

9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Craig Wright is back with his drama - bullish or bearish? on: June 20, 2016, 08:13:43 PM
The more I think about it the more bearish it seems.
10  Economy / Speculation / Craig Wright is back with his drama - bullish or bearish? on: June 20, 2016, 06:35:29 PM
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-creator-craig-wright-patents/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CoinDesk+%28CoinDesk+-+The+Voice+of+Digital+Currency%29

That wall of text story at http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n13/andrew-ohagan/the-satoshi-affair does not make much sense for me.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2016, 09:02:26 AM
"BTC price rally news on today's China Central TV channel": https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/744528738113642499 - Can anyone verify that? I cannot install the plugin to view it.

From https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4otkjw/btc_price_rally_news_on_todays_china_central_tv/
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much of a bump will BTC get from Eth crashing? on: June 18, 2016, 06:38:12 PM
For any outsider the ETH crash will be a warning before investing in BTC. I think we'll have less in-flowing money because of it.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC price doubled - is halving now priced in? on: June 17, 2016, 10:08:41 AM
still not double, doubling would mean reaching 860 right? 750 is not 860 lol, but for now the halving would be priced in yes, miners have a big margin of profit now, no need to shut down their miners anymore

2*300 = 600

$300 was the range boundary at the bottom semi stable period.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sudden drop in price: Have we missed any latest news? on: June 17, 2016, 10:00:58 AM
Maybe it is related to the crash in ETH? It is kind of a warning.
15  Economy / Speculation / BTC price doubled - is halving now priced in? on: June 17, 2016, 09:58:38 AM
The range for the 'stable period' was something like $200-300 so it has actually more than doubled now.

Some believe that the mining cost should be the support for the price - the current price will be above mining cost after halving.
Others believe that there is a constant demand in USD - so if we slush the demand in half - then we need the price to grow twice to meet the demand.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ethereum scammers trying to suppress BTC till they find someone to Dump Eth on on: May 21, 2016, 08:05:42 AM
Ethereum scammers are in full desperation mode now.  Nobody is buying their Eth pump so they keep doing orchestrated BTC dumps to temporarily lower BTC price, make believing that will make people want Eth instead but there are just no willing buyers of that scamcoin.

That does not make any sense. BTC is still many times bigger market than ETH - suppressing BTC would involve an order of magnitude bigger loses than anyone could gain on the manipulated ETH.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: DONT PANIC!!! EVERYONE STOP SELLING!!! on: May 20, 2016, 08:23:18 AM
Who panics first panics best!
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: There is an epic shakeout coming this year before the giga-spike. on: May 17, 2016, 02:31:44 PM
That was a hard for event back then: https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0050.mediawiki

It can happen again sure - but I would not put much weight into that possibility.

That said, a cascade of margin calls is quite possible with this level of leverage.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: China & Eth scammers suppressing BTC till they find someone to dump their Eth on on: May 12, 2016, 07:26:35 PM
But seriously - how is it relevant who is pushing down? The effect is the same.

It is normal to have corrections in an uptrend. Looking on the leverages this one might not have been finished by the way.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Chinamen trying to stop BTC rise till they find someone to dump their Eth on on: May 10, 2016, 11:44:28 AM
Oh boy you sound so desperate that I am not even sure if you really try to pump up it or maybe your real plan is to expose the bitcoin church for its absurdity.

But in fact a correction like this is quite normal behaviour around strong resistance lines. The up trend is there, it is just a little bit slower than people think - so the leveraged people got anxious and dumped. No conspiracy or evil Manipulators.
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