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July 25, 2017, 03:05:22 PM *
News: BIP91 seems stable: there's probably only slightly increased risk of confirmations disappearing. You should still prepare for Aug 1.
 
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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: July 04, 2017, 06:27:55 PM
If it is a logarithm chart on a log scale - than there should exist another log scale where it would be linear.
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH is now going to take the crown, the flippening on: June 14, 2017, 04:07:44 PM
Now it looks like the flippening might happen on the way down. I have a feeling that this will not be satisfactory to neither side.
3  Economy / Economics / Proof of Work on: June 13, 2017, 07:08:44 AM
A comparison of Bitcoin and Gold as Proof of Work systems: https://medium.com/@zby/proof-of-work-8d8265def194
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump? on: May 31, 2017, 05:18:10 PM
Looks like OKCoin has just opened withdrawals: twitter.com/cnLedger/status/869934911179735040 - just as I predicted - but the limits are kind of low.
5  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH will go down or up? on: May 30, 2017, 07:53:54 PM
China is jumping on the ETH train: https://www.okcoin.com/t-387.html, https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208 - I guess this means up.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump? on: May 30, 2017, 02:12:34 PM
I'd say Dump.

Here is my reasoning: they stopped withdrawals because they were afraid people were using btc for capital flight. Suppose they were right and once withdrawals are allowed, people will send the bitcoin to a western exchange where they can exchange them for dollars or euros. Or use localbitcoins to cash out in dollars or euros.

Either way, that means selling and hence a dump.

I think the capital flight thing was overblown, just as Cypriots and Greeks queued up in their, er, tens to convert to Bitcoin.

I assume withdrawals won't be enabled until they figure how to stop the possibility. It can't be stopped so perhaps there never will be withdrawals again.

But they allowed ETH withdrawals - ETH can be sent to other exchanges just as easily as BTC.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump? on: May 30, 2017, 05:25:16 AM
I think it is very probable that BTC withdrawals will be open on Chinese exchanges soon. Huobi just added ETH for trading and enabled ETH withdrawals ( https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208, http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/28/huobi-first-big-three-chinese-exchange-enable-ethereum-trading/). It would not make much sense to enable ETH withdrawals but not BTC withdrawals. Also Huobi most probably would not make this change alone.
If my speculation is right - what would it mean? A pump or a dump?

are you sure that they have enabled ETH withdrwal and not just added it to their exchange platform?

...

In the twitter announcement they write that ETH withdrawals are already open. I don't know anyone who uses it - so this is the best source I have.
8  Economy / Speculation / If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump? on: May 29, 2017, 08:05:49 PM
I think it is very probable that BTC withdrawals will be open on Chinese exchanges soon. Huobi just added ETH for trading and enabled ETH withdrawals ( https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208, http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/28/huobi-first-big-three-chinese-exchange-enable-ethereum-trading/). It would not make much sense to enable ETH withdrawals but not BTC withdrawals. Also Huobi most probably would not make this change alone.
If my speculation is right - what would it mean? A pump or a dump?
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take? on: May 03, 2017, 09:18:27 AM
I suspect that some bfx proprietors or employees have Taiwanese bank accounts and are not really interested in resolving the problem quickly.
10  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Time to dump ETH? on: April 27, 2017, 06:54:12 AM
The ICOs push ETH up - but most of them are scams or just weak ideas, at some point we'll see them crash and burn and they'll take ETH price with them. I'll buy ETH after the scam is cleared.

It is now hard to predict how much longer the ICO hype can take, probably it will go down with the first big bankruptcy - but all the first companies seem to have crazy amounts of cash (for startups) - so it will take a while before they burn it.
11  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH price soaring. Are you going to move some BTC into ETH? on: April 26, 2017, 08:08:08 AM
...
The ETH has good applications. That will support the price.

Maybe next time - now the number one application is scam ICOs, all of this will crash hard and take ETH with it.

Nope, the opposite is more likely, the money that comes out of these scams (we'll leave the discussion on what that even means) has to go somewhere, so when taken out it'll either go into BTC, ETH or FIAT. Why would it effect ETH? Huh

Purely by association. When people feel the fear they won't stop midway - but move to fiat.
12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH price soaring. Are you going to move some BTC into ETH? on: April 26, 2017, 07:04:13 AM
...
The ETH has good applications. That will support the price.

Maybe next time - now the number one application is scam ICOs, all of this will crash hard and take ETH with it.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculation on the price of BTC if Bitfinex does a Gox on: April 20, 2017, 08:23:40 PM
MtGox stopped withdrawals in June - then after half a year it pumped BTC from about 100 to over 1200 with other exchanges following (just about 10% lower). The question what will happen after the current pump is irrelevant - the important thing is if the current pump will manage to do a 10x just like the MtGox pump. Bitfinex might be not as important as MtGox was - but with this amount of shorts it has a lot of fuel.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take? on: April 20, 2017, 06:09:09 PM
Update:

https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/201

"""
Bitfinex, unfortunately, continues to experience temporary delays in the processing of outbound fiat wires. We are developing alternative channels to address these delays, but this takes time. We appreciate the patience and loyalty demonstrated by our customers and the community in this matter. We were advised by our banks that we would be able to process outbound wires in HKD and CHF, and while we were able to successfully process several such transactions, we are now being told that the moratorium is being extended to these currencies, as well.
"""
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take? on: April 20, 2017, 05:56:36 PM
Looks like the HKD and CHF withdrawals story was mostly false: https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/855055701697331201 - thats why it accelerated today.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitfinex situation - how long it will take? on: April 18, 2017, 09:12:32 PM
Big exitpump confirmed.
...

Exitpump is one thing - combined with this level of shorts - this looks explosive!
17  Economy / Speculation / The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take? on: April 18, 2017, 09:00:11 PM
First of all it looks unlikely that Bitfinex is insolvent. It is theoretically possible that repaying their hack debt (the BFX tokens) was just a PR trick - but it does not seem likely for me. But still the problems with banks can bankrupt Bitfinex eventually.

How long it will take is the whole question here.

But there is also a second reason why it is very important how long it will take: there are currently 16.7K in BTC longs there, but over 20K BTC shorts, there is even bigger disproportion if you look at bids and asks. The longs there are dropping - especially since yesterday - presumably people liquidate their longs, claim the BTCs and withdraw them in fear of BFX bankruptcy. Others withdraw their BTCs and yet others buy BTC with whatever left funds and withdraw - creating the big price premium on Bitfinex. There is less and less BTC left on Bitfinex and the shorts are more and more exposed. Eventually we can get a huuuuge short squeeze there.
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Analysis ETH on: March 30, 2017, 09:19:00 AM
Seems to stabilize at 0.05, and BTC costs you lower than $ 1000 is making a very strong support

Some developers want to cut the miner's reward. that will dent the price of ETH.

'dent' - in what meaning?

When supply decreases price should increase.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: March 30, 2017, 07:50:28 AM
Only reason ETH and Dash are this big right now is because of BTC fork drama, spooked crypto enthusiasts look for safety in what they perceive as the next best coin and plan to go back to BTC once the drama is over. 90% of people dabble in alts to increase their BTC stash, that's their one and only goal. And it only takes a small percentage of scared Bitcoin fans to inflate certain altcoins to huge bubble proportions. I'm not a Bitcoin maximalist, I'm sure a few altcoins will find their own niche in time, but right now they're simply way overvalued due to the Bitcoin drama.

I disagree. ETH has really many more uses than BTC, it is more interesting, will attract a more diverse crowd and support a more diverse ecosystem eventually. The only problem with it is the big supply with inflation that is still not definitely defined - it makes it kind of less attractive to those very people who push the price up - the investors. Of course bitcoin can still attack this space with RootStock - but currently this seems very remote. With DASH I am a bit more sceptical - but it has also innovated. DASH has somehow better privacy - but it also nailed down the social system with the DAO idea - the result of it is for example paying the PR girl, this also is a big innovation.
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Time to dump ETH? on: March 30, 2017, 06:36:49 AM
Technically ETH charts looks heavy right now - with divs etc. But eth is much more interesting than bitcoin - there is more things to do with the ethereum network - this attract more diverse audience. This is confirmed by a look at the google trends chart for ethereum and media reports. Tt is quite clear that the eth hype is still growing - sooner or later this should generate  another price push up.

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