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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculation on the price of BTC if Bitfinex does a Gox on: April 20, 2017, 08:23:40 PM
MtGox stopped withdrawals in June - then after half a year it pumped BTC from about 100 to over 1200 with other exchanges following (just about 10% lower). The question what will happen after the current pump is irrelevant - the important thing is if the current pump will manage to do a 10x just like the MtGox pump. Bitfinex might be not as important as MtGox was - but with this amount of shorts it has a lot of fuel.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take? on: April 20, 2017, 06:09:09 PM
Update:

https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/201

"""
Bitfinex, unfortunately, continues to experience temporary delays in the processing of outbound fiat wires. We are developing alternative channels to address these delays, but this takes time. We appreciate the patience and loyalty demonstrated by our customers and the community in this matter. We were advised by our banks that we would be able to process outbound wires in HKD and CHF, and while we were able to successfully process several such transactions, we are now being told that the moratorium is being extended to these currencies, as well.
"""
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take? on: April 20, 2017, 05:56:36 PM
Looks like the HKD and CHF withdrawals story was mostly false: https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/855055701697331201 - thats why it accelerated today.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitfinex situation - how long it will take? on: April 18, 2017, 09:12:32 PM
Big exitpump confirmed.
...

Exitpump is one thing - combined with this level of shorts - this looks explosive!
5  Economy / Speculation / The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take? on: April 18, 2017, 09:00:11 PM
First of all it looks unlikely that Bitfinex is insolvent. It is theoretically possible that repaying their hack debt (the BFX tokens) was just a PR trick - but it does not seem likely for me. But still the problems with banks can bankrupt Bitfinex eventually.

How long it will take is the whole question here.

But there is also a second reason why it is very important how long it will take: there are currently 16.7K in BTC longs there, but over 20K BTC shorts, there is even bigger disproportion if you look at bids and asks. The longs there are dropping - especially since yesterday - presumably people liquidate their longs, claim the BTCs and withdraw them in fear of BFX bankruptcy. Others withdraw their BTCs and yet others buy BTC with whatever left funds and withdraw - creating the big price premium on Bitfinex. There is less and less BTC left on Bitfinex and the shorts are more and more exposed. Eventually we can get a huuuuge short squeeze there.
6  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Analysis ETH on: March 30, 2017, 09:19:00 AM
Seems to stabilize at 0.05, and BTC costs you lower than $ 1000 is making a very strong support

Some developers want to cut the miner's reward. that will dent the price of ETH.

'dent' - in what meaning?

When supply decreases price should increase.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: March 30, 2017, 07:50:28 AM
Only reason ETH and Dash are this big right now is because of BTC fork drama, spooked crypto enthusiasts look for safety in what they perceive as the next best coin and plan to go back to BTC once the drama is over. 90% of people dabble in alts to increase their BTC stash, that's their one and only goal. And it only takes a small percentage of scared Bitcoin fans to inflate certain altcoins to huge bubble proportions. I'm not a Bitcoin maximalist, I'm sure a few altcoins will find their own niche in time, but right now they're simply way overvalued due to the Bitcoin drama.

I disagree. ETH has really many more uses than BTC, it is more interesting, will attract a more diverse crowd and support a more diverse ecosystem eventually. The only problem with it is the big supply with inflation that is still not definitely defined - it makes it kind of less attractive to those very people who push the price up - the investors. Of course bitcoin can still attack this space with RootStock - but currently this seems very remote. With DASH I am a bit more sceptical - but it has also innovated. DASH has somehow better privacy - but it also nailed down the social system with the DAO idea - the result of it is for example paying the PR girl, this also is a big innovation.
8  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Time to dump ETH? on: March 30, 2017, 06:36:49 AM
Technically ETH charts looks heavy right now - with divs etc. But eth is much more interesting than bitcoin - there is more things to do with the ethereum network - this attract more diverse audience. This is confirmed by a look at the google trends chart for ethereum and media reports. Tt is quite clear that the eth hype is still growing - sooner or later this should generate  another price push up.

9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: March 29, 2017, 06:22:37 AM


My gut feeling goes with this one - but there is one thing. When you look at an image like this one it is natural to imagine that the B just goes from here to 1150 - my own prediction is that now it will slide down along the trend line from the peak 1120 to the one at 1070, it will probably break 1000 again, and stop maybe around 950, only after that long slide it will break the TL and go to 1150 to finish the B.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Samson mow. Bitcoin unlimited is over. on: March 28, 2017, 01:12:11 PM
Is that any news? Samson Mow was always against BU.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: BU adoption is stalled - hf is not in miners interest on: March 27, 2017, 12:01:08 PM
The problem is BU signalling grows again (for the last 144 blocks  is 47.8% - which is close to the level that should make people unconfortable). This might be just random fluctuations - I wish someone did the math to see what is reasonable for random distribution and what should start to worry us.

12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: March 27, 2017, 08:16:33 AM
Afrikoin I have a question for you.

Can you explain the reason why it is that Bitcoin's graph appears to show exponential growth and so many of these other coins have graphs that either seem like they are going up and down without any actual direction, versus graphs that show nothing and then randomly straight up and crash? 

I made a short paint PNG just picking a few random coins and looking at their trajectories.  The Monero and NAVcoin charts appear to have a trajectory somewhat similar to Bitcoins, but Ether's looks more like Dash and MAIDSafe looks like it's just bobbing up and down without any kind of reason.

Is there something inherent to Bitcoin that these other coins don't have?  Can these graphs explain what it might be? Can graphs like the MAIDsafe graph tell us anything about the coin itself? 

Thanks for all the advice.

http://prntscr.com/eoxtdn

ETH went through the DAO fiasco and then the split.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: BU adoption is stalled - hf is not in miners interest on: March 27, 2017, 07:02:47 AM
Roger Ver already wanted to fork he said,...

Yeah - that guy is not known for the best of judgement.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: price went up, opportunity to buy cheap is now lost on: March 26, 2017, 04:06:16 PM
as i am writing this price is $984 according to bitfinex and it seems like the opportunity to buy cheap coins with a big discount is now officially over.

...

I don't know - if some one sold over $1200 - then it is still 20% discount.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: BU adoption is stalled - hf is not in miners interest on: March 26, 2017, 07:34:18 AM
...
in any case these are all guesses and are pointless.

And yet guesses is all we have Smiley

Everything here is speculation - it is never about anything 100% sure - because those facts are already priced in. We weight various factors, estimate the probability and speculate.

The fluctuations are random - but this one persists over more than 4 days - so it does not seem so random any more.

BU loses battle after battle - first they have lost developers, there were embarrassing bugs found in the BU code - then they have lost most of the exchanges who declared to list BTU as an alt - and now the indicators show that they might start losing miners.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: March 26, 2017, 06:17:20 AM
The H&S is now invalidated.

Why?

I meant of course the H&S I drew in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.msg18327334#msg18327334 - it is invalidated - because we are back over the neckline.

Also there is a fundamental reason for the bounce now - BU signalling topped below 40% and now is declining while SegWit is growing. I believe this is not temporary - because miners must have noticed how the price reacts to BU news.  BU might be in their interests long term, but only in some vague and debated way - a crash of BTC price is an immediate and unambiguous signal for them.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin on: March 26, 2017, 12:07:48 AM
The H&S is now invalidated.
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Buying ETH instead of shorting BTC - good idea? on: March 26, 2017, 12:03:01 AM
yeah - it looks like right now we are rebounding - so I'll save the idea for the next time.
19  Economy / Speculation / BU adoption is stalled - hf is not in miners interest on: March 25, 2017, 11:49:53 PM
At https://coin.dance/blocks BU is stalled just below 40% of blocks ever since the recent crash. And there were less BU in the latest mined blocks (the last 144 blocks) than in the previous ones.  Miners would be crazy to push it any further and continue this FUD pressure on the price - they feel the results in their pay.

SegWit the opposite - ever since the dive the numbers grow.
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Buying ETH instead of shorting BTC - good idea? on: March 25, 2017, 10:47:39 PM
I have always been anxious about shorting BTC - now it seems that ETH is reversely correlated with BTC - so longing ETH is a good substitute for shorting BTC. Of course the correlation is just temporary, that is the point, at some point BTC will bounce back for good, and I hope that ETH will not dive too much on that occasion.
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