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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: effect of BCH in BTC price on: November 14, 2017, 02:26:05 PM
There is a theory now circulating:

Miners can quickly switch between btc and bch.

If btc/bch goes down they switch to bch. Transactions pile up - and if it goes on for long then the price will go down even further (a positive feedback).

It requires over 2000 blocks for the difficulty to scale down in btc (two weeks - more if the slow down is significant).

In bch the adjustment happens every new block - so it will not suffer that much from those oscillations.

(from https://pastebin.com/D09wHy2W)

Sounds logical - maybe BTC needs to switch to a similar faster difficulty adjustment scheme.

 But if the price does not drop below mining profitability - then it should not be that bad - after BCH difficulty adjusts up miners will go back to BTC.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Soo Soon ? BCH - BTC on: November 13, 2017, 07:45:45 AM
Some BCH warriors have huge amounts of BTC - I don't think that the 3 days of this have depleted their holdings much. In the end I do think that BTC will prevail - but I expect even bigger dumps than on the weekend. In the end the fragmentation of the payment network is diminishing its the value - and it might result in a boom for another contender (maybe ETH - being the second in market cap already, or maybe LTC being the closest replacement).
3  Economy / Speculation / Monday correction TA - Head and Shoulders pointing to 6600 target on: November 06, 2017, 06:09:03 PM


For a few days the rally was losing limpet, correction is not surprising here.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price to the sky if Amazon rumor become true ! on: October 31, 2017, 10:17:10 PM
I don't know - I remember there was a guy who used some chat support of Amazon and pestered the consultant for so long that he eventually agreed that sure Amazon will accept bitcoin soon. He then posted the chat logs here and people got excited. It was in 2012 or something.
5  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2017-10-28] Agriculture Getting an ICO Upgrade to Boost Production in Russia on: October 28, 2017, 08:55:54 AM
That's a good name! They'll milk all the dumb 'investors'.
6  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Time to dump ETH? on: October 23, 2017, 12:16:19 PM
The whole pump from $20 was mostly fuelled by ICOs - now with SEC going after ICOs (and with the Tezos troubles) this is mostly done. This whole rally now will go in the reverse direction. Currently we are breaking a long term support at 286, plus making some minor H&S: . Around 250 is a log chart longer term trendline, it should bounce there for some time - but I believe it will also break that one, the fundamentals are not that good for ETH right now.

But overall with the coding of POS finally going strong I think ETH will be a very good opportunity next year. I am sure there will be something else to replace the ICO fuel - ETH is much more versatile than BTC.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Interesting day... Telling on: October 17, 2017, 07:22:28 AM
The flow chart looks like a roller coaster ride... so many up's & downs.  Kind of surprised me.  Starts off sitting around the 5499-5500 border.  Quickly climbs to the 5600's, and then mid 5700's, a rebound I expected.  Then a brief drop back below 5700 (high 5600's), which I also expected.  But then it abruptly halted, and picked up steam again, climbing as high as $5844, and then inevitably hit a wall and collapsed back down below 5500 again (5454).  But then rose again above 5700 quickly, to 5707.  But then once again began another decent, down in the 5600's.

...

Come on - this is not any different from any other timespan, ups and downs all the time. Why exactly do you think this is special?
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin without China on: September 20, 2017, 05:26:52 AM
China has I believe something like 80% of mining - if all of this is switched off - then blocks will take 5 times more time to be mined and the difficulty adjustment will come only after 5*2weeks. This slowdown will generate more criticism.
9  Bitcoin / Press / [2019-09-19] China Bans Bitcoin Executives From Leaving the Country on: September 19, 2017, 08:02:54 PM
http://www.trustnodes.com/2017/09/19/china-bans-bitcoin-executives-leaving-country-miners-preparing-worst
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression on: July 04, 2017, 06:27:55 PM
If it is a logarithm chart on a log scale - than there should exist another log scale where it would be linear.
11  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH is now going to take the crown, the flippening on: June 14, 2017, 04:07:44 PM
Now it looks like the flippening might happen on the way down. I have a feeling that this will not be satisfactory to neither side.
12  Economy / Economics / Proof of Work on: June 13, 2017, 07:08:44 AM
A comparison of Bitcoin and Gold as Proof of Work systems: https://medium.com/@zby/proof-of-work-8d8265def194
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump? on: May 31, 2017, 05:18:10 PM
Looks like OKCoin has just opened withdrawals: twitter.com/cnLedger/status/869934911179735040 - just as I predicted - but the limits are kind of low.
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH will go down or up? on: May 30, 2017, 07:53:54 PM
China is jumping on the ETH train: https://www.okcoin.com/t-387.html, https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208 - I guess this means up.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump? on: May 30, 2017, 02:12:34 PM
I'd say Dump.

Here is my reasoning: they stopped withdrawals because they were afraid people were using btc for capital flight. Suppose they were right and once withdrawals are allowed, people will send the bitcoin to a western exchange where they can exchange them for dollars or euros. Or use localbitcoins to cash out in dollars or euros.

Either way, that means selling and hence a dump.

I think the capital flight thing was overblown, just as Cypriots and Greeks queued up in their, er, tens to convert to Bitcoin.

I assume withdrawals won't be enabled until they figure how to stop the possibility. It can't be stopped so perhaps there never will be withdrawals again.

But they allowed ETH withdrawals - ETH can be sent to other exchanges just as easily as BTC.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump? on: May 30, 2017, 05:25:16 AM
I think it is very probable that BTC withdrawals will be open on Chinese exchanges soon. Huobi just added ETH for trading and enabled ETH withdrawals ( https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208, http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/28/huobi-first-big-three-chinese-exchange-enable-ethereum-trading/). It would not make much sense to enable ETH withdrawals but not BTC withdrawals. Also Huobi most probably would not make this change alone.
If my speculation is right - what would it mean? A pump or a dump?

are you sure that they have enabled ETH withdrwal and not just added it to their exchange platform?

...

In the twitter announcement they write that ETH withdrawals are already open. I don't know anyone who uses it - so this is the best source I have.
17  Economy / Speculation / If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump? on: May 29, 2017, 08:05:49 PM
I think it is very probable that BTC withdrawals will be open on Chinese exchanges soon. Huobi just added ETH for trading and enabled ETH withdrawals ( https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208, http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/28/huobi-first-big-three-chinese-exchange-enable-ethereum-trading/). It would not make much sense to enable ETH withdrawals but not BTC withdrawals. Also Huobi most probably would not make this change alone.
If my speculation is right - what would it mean? A pump or a dump?
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take? on: May 03, 2017, 09:18:27 AM
I suspect that some bfx proprietors or employees have Taiwanese bank accounts and are not really interested in resolving the problem quickly.
19  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Time to dump ETH? on: April 27, 2017, 06:54:12 AM
The ICOs push ETH up - but most of them are scams or just weak ideas, at some point we'll see them crash and burn and they'll take ETH price with them. I'll buy ETH after the scam is cleared.

It is now hard to predict how much longer the ICO hype can take, probably it will go down with the first big bankruptcy - but all the first companies seem to have crazy amounts of cash (for startups) - so it will take a while before they burn it.
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH price soaring. Are you going to move some BTC into ETH? on: April 26, 2017, 08:08:08 AM
...
The ETH has good applications. That will support the price.

Maybe next time - now the number one application is scam ICOs, all of this will crash hard and take ETH with it.

Nope, the opposite is more likely, the money that comes out of these scams (we'll leave the discussion on what that even means) has to go somewhere, so when taken out it'll either go into BTC, ETH or FIAT. Why would it effect ETH? Huh

Purely by association. When people feel the fear they won't stop midway - but move to fiat.
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