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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: I think bull run coming soon on: Today at 07:27:11 AM
You think a bull run is coming?

We've been in a bull run for months now, punctuated only by a few short-lived panic dips caused mainly by PBOC shenanigans.

I see no reason for this bull run not to continue.

This!

It grew over 400% percent over just above a year. To beat this we need to reach $5000 now.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: $1200 on: February 26, 2017, 12:41:40 PM
Looks like range trading for now - about 1200 sell, about 1100 buy. But that's only temporary for sure. Either there is another PBoC announcement to drive it down - or it will break up.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: THE DUMP on: February 22, 2017, 08:43:23 AM
Just sold my trading stash. Price is climbing too fast. Short  positions prepared at 1140 USD. Lots of them...

The question is - is this bullish or bearish? Many ask bear predictions were bullish - I guess he does not try to talk his book when the prices go his way anyway - but some were right. I wish someone made a statistics.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why waiting for the end of PBOC investigation, we already have a proof on: February 20, 2017, 07:40:03 AM
The Chinese volumes were an effect of: first no fees - this has changed, second bots used for inflating the volume - this should also be over as this was required by the authorities, third possibly by completely fake numbers generated by the exchanges - this should also be over as required by the authorities. This is well established now and it is a good explanation - that's why nobody asked Bobby Lee about it. No withdrawals can add to diminishing the volume even further - but it is not the primary reason - you are right there.
No fees policy would not influence the volume in this order of magnitude. If you take a look at the graph, it's almost 450x lower volume then before, that's 45000% lower than before. I don't know about what type of bots are you talking about, if you are talking about trading bots there is still an evidence that they are still there, because exchanges are moving synchronously to CNY exchanges or vice versa.



The bots I was writing about were about inflating the volume - that was their purpose. Iindividual traders had incentives to have big volume trading (lower fees on withdrawals or something) - so they used bots to trade between accounts that they control. This can easily explain 450x or whatever other number more volume - because there is no limit and no price to how much you can trade between yourself.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why waiting for the end of PBOC investigation, we already have a proof on: February 20, 2017, 07:39:26 AM
The Chinese volumes were an effect of: first no fees - this has changed, second bots used for inflating the volume - this should also be over as this was required by the authorities, third possibly by completely fake numbers generated by the exchanges - this should also be over as required by the authorities. This is well established now and it is a good explanation - that's why nobody asked Bobby Lee about it. No withdrawals can add to diminishing the volume even further - but it is not the primary reason - you are right there.
No fees policy would not influence the volume in this order of magnitude. If you take a look at the graph, it's almost 450x lower volume then before, that's 45000% lower than before. I don't know about what type of bots are you talking about, if you are talking about trading bots there is still an evidence that they are still there, because exchanges are moving synchronously to CNY exchanges or vice versa.



The bots I was writing about were about inflating the volume - that was their purpose. Iindividual traders had incentives to have big volume trading (lower fees on withdrawals or something) - so they used bots to trade between to accounts that they control. This can easily explain 450x or whatever other number more volume - because there is no limit and no price to how much you can trade between yourself.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why waiting for the end of PBOC investigation, we already have a proof on: February 19, 2017, 07:35:06 PM
I mean, as soon as PBOC started their investigation Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges turned off their fake volume engine

We are not just talking about fake volume, fake volume == fake price == bad reputation == another Gox.

We all followed what Chinese Exchanges was doing because of their volume, they were No.1, BTC/USD volume could not be even seen on the pie chart compared to BTC/CNY volume.

Did anyone asked Bobby Lee yesterday during his AMA on Reddit about this volume issue?

I mean there is no logic that halted withdrawals could influence volume at this magnitude, just look at the photo below.

...

The Chinese volumes were an effect of: first no fees - this has changed, second bots used for inflating the volume - this should also be over as this was required by the authorities, third possibly by completely fake numbers generated by the exchanges - this should also be over as required by the authorities. This is well established now and it is a good explanation - that's why nobody asked Bobby Lee about it. No withdrawals can add to diminishing the volume even further - but it is not the primary reason - you are right there.
7  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2017-02-15]BTCC latest move indicates more regulation on the way on: February 15, 2017, 02:39:21 PM
It's funny how these regulations are put in place right now, while they could have done all this years ago. Bitcoin how it was back then, isn't any different from how it is right now (functionality wise). These are well planned attacks in the hope that it will discourage traders and investors to lock their money into Bitcoin. I just wonder what will happen if all these regulations are put in place, and after that the price spikes again (because it will spike again). What will the next regulations be, forcing certain limits in how much people can buy in Bitcoin?

The market was so small back than that it did not matter for national monetary policies. China might be the first to regulate - but Europe is not far behind - in the end all economies relying on capital controls will have to regulate.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Economist predicts Bitcoin $25,000 on: February 12, 2017, 07:57:50 AM
What we need is $80,000 - then satoshi will be the richest man on earth!
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: When would you expect new announcement from PBOC on: February 11, 2017, 10:21:37 PM
A lot of people seem to be missing the point. The recent PBOC activity isn't about Bitcoin.

It's about money laundering and the outflow of capital from their country. They have strict limits on foreign exchange for individuals.

They just want to make it more difficult than simply depositing yuan in an exchange, buying large amounts of bitcoins, and then withdrawing them to a foreign exchange and converting them to USD, EUR, etc.

Can you blame them?

I don't quite get it - are you agreeing with my analysis or disagreeing? On the surface it looks like you mean me when you write people are missing the point - then you state exactly where my theory starts - PBOC wants to stop money outflows - and to do that they need to stop BTC outflows, because BTC is money. Then I present a speculation how they could do that.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will surge to $25,000+ on: February 11, 2017, 08:32:48 PM
I hope it goes to $80k - then satoshi will be the richest man on Earth!
11  Economy / Speculation / When would you expect new announcement from PBOC on: February 11, 2017, 05:45:24 PM
My own theory about what happens in China is below - it shows why I believe there will be further announcements and significant ones - but actually this poll is not about this theory - just about next important announcement what ever it is about.

It looks very likely that the Chinese authorities will do everything to stop money outflows. Their first announcement about this a few months ago was about stopping bitcoins from moving outside of the country - this was not believed here - because it seemed impossible to enforce. Later in January we have had announcement about PBOC examining the exchanges, and then requiring them to stop leveraged trading, introduce trading fees stop artificially inflating volumes and in general enforcing more strictly any other relevant law. My interpretation of this move is that it was mostly about gathering information - the fake volumes were muddying the image. Then this week they announced that there will be new AML rules (or check or whatever) and most exchanges temporarily stopped withdrawals before the new AML rules are established.

This is pure speculation - but what I believe will be next is that PBOC will announce something like 'registered wallets' and all BTC transfers from a registered wallet will be allowed only into another registered wallet (moving BTC from unregistered wallet into a registered one will also be possible). The registered wallets will be hosted to enforce this - but it is quite easy for the authorities to watch for infractions on the blockchain - so I think many companies will be allowed to host registered wallets. The exchanges of course will only allow withdrawals to registered wallets. This way the goal announced many months ago of stopping BTC from moving abroad will be reached. In practice BTCs in the registered wallets will be something very different from 'real' BTCs - but formally it will only be about enforcing the capital controls.
The next thing will be controlling the miners. All mining businesses will be vulnerable - but it will be much harder to enforce the rules on people mining on their private machines, I guess the measures here will depend on how tightly they need to control it, how big outflows it generates.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Crashes as Chinese Exchanges OkCoin & Huobi Pause Withdrawal on: February 10, 2017, 05:59:04 PM
...

China won't confiscate btc from exchanges, it is a robbery, and exchanges have own cold and hot wallets, how they can confiscate the bitcoin funds? Impossible, if that will be real, PBOC is criming, government should fire the head of PBOC.

PBOC is the government (or more precisely both are just subsidiary of the party). But yeah - they will not confiscate - they'll just allow moving the funds only between government approved wallets, this is the only way to stop BTC leaving the country and this is their goal announced already a few months ago. Next step will be controlling the Chinese miners.

...
I would have thought that the people using bitcoin to evade Chinese capital controls were small fry. Most of the serious money uses property purchases abroad (they buy using a mortgage, and then take money slowly out of China to pay the mortgage, year on year).

Unless of course it is the miners who are getting their coins out of the country. They DO have a lot of money to take out that way. If they are shut down for capital flight, we have got trouble.

Chinese citizens can only move $50K yearly abroad - I don't think that there is an exception to paying mortgages - it would take 10 years to move half a million.

I guess some would move it slowly - but for most it would be more urgent now.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price Crashes as Chinese Exchanges OkCoin & Huobi Pause Withdrawal on: February 10, 2017, 02:21:49 PM
So for a month the only way to withdraw from Chinese exchanges will be to sell BTC. This should generate constant pressure down.

I also think that the new AML rules will not let people use BTC freely - they would probably mean they can only use hosted wallets - this is the only way for the authorities to stop BTC leaving the country. At least officially - this will obviously create a huge black market too, so I guess another rule will be regulating mining and requiring that the mined BTCs are sold only on approved exchanges, or moved into approved hosted wallets. Anyway - all the BTC that is now on the exchanges will be trapped into some internal Chinese market with no way to leave the country - i.e. useless.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Anyone thinking China regulation is cause of drop should rethink his whole life on: February 09, 2017, 04:28:44 PM
Anyone thinking China regulation is cause of drop should rethink his whole life
...

Are you losing money? You sound like one that does. Why should anyone listen to your advice?
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: After the usual PBOC bullshit routine. Uptrend continues. on: February 08, 2017, 07:21:40 PM
Quote
Today OKCoin has had so far 20K volume - which exchange had more?

if bots playing ping pong with one btc selling and buying it back 20k times because the trading fees are a joke, its still 1 BTC. And not 20k BTC.

Have you even noticed a change there recently? PBOC requested that there is a 0.2% transaction fee on all Chinese exchanges and that the volumes reported are correct. The volumes there decreased many times - sure the exchanges can still cheat, but so can western exchanges.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: After the usual PBOC bullshit routine. Uptrend continues. on: February 08, 2017, 03:56:35 PM
Quote
Chinese exchanges still have the biggest volumes, China is still the biggest BTC market


No they dont.

No its not.



Thats the latest extrapolation after PBoC forced chinese exchanges to drop their pants down.

Come on - this chart lumps all USD exchanges together. Today OKCoin has had so far 20K volume - which exchange had more? Maybe the Japanese ones - but those are again zero-fees unreliable data. The same thing with the market share - CNY is pretty much only used in China - USD is used in all national markets.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: After the usual PBOC bullshit routine. Uptrend continues. on: February 08, 2017, 01:39:45 PM
China is old news now. nobody cares about them anymore.
there was a time when people still thought the billion dollar daily volume they reported were real, but now we know how fake it was.
there was a time when people still thought all the mining power came from China, but we have been seeing more and more hashrate from other places.

and with all these changes, i don't think there is anybody naive enough to believe FUD like that and make the price go down. it is time for the FUDsters to find better and newer things Cheesy

Chinese exchanges still have the biggest volumes, China is still the biggest BTC market and whatever happens there will have impact on the price. And if the Chinese authorities really ban bitcoin - then the price there will plummet. So far it does not seem like they want to do that - what they did so far is only making the Chinese market a bit more civilized curbing the fake manipulative data, and enforcing other laws. This still have impact on the price, because now there will be less demand for BTC used for illegal activities.

Personally I bet on quick recovery from this - but I would not say people who think otherwise are naive or weak hands - all this derogatory talk is unnecessary and frankly pretty silly.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Central bank of China meets exchangers for regulation issues of Money laundering on: February 08, 2017, 10:15:24 AM
Breaking.

breaking in your language must mean old.
Chinese exchanges have been meeting with their Central Bank (PBoC) for months now, it started a long time ago and they have been negotiating for a long time.

and your topics are always being deleted by mods because you are spreading bullshit from shitty sources.

This one is important - because they discuss further AML measures. This is why Bloomberg noticed and also this is the reason for the correction.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Central bank of China meets exchangers for regulation issues of Money laundering on: February 08, 2017, 09:03:05 AM
So it looks like this is the last chance for the Chinese to buy bitcoins and save them into their own private wallet.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Apparently the flash crash was fueled by Bitcurex hack rumors on: February 03, 2017, 03:16:22 PM
This has been known for months. The first rumours about the 2300BTC missing were in October last year: http://bitcoin.pl/wiadomosci/bezpieczenstwo/1316-awaria-polskiej-gieldy-bitcurex
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