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Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis
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on: April 22, 2015, 10:20:54 PM
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What's the big deal? I was trading bitcoin with plus500 more than a year ago. the only big deal is that I only recently discovered it, so if no one had heard of it as I hadn't, I wanted to share my referral link  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis
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on: March 31, 2015, 03:20:08 PM
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do you see a scenario where we break out upwards for a short/med term period? how would that fit into a count if at all?
as per lebings chart, there is also a large descending triangle with similar contact points which traditional TA says "normally" breaks out up.
this idea would fit with the depleting volume on this recent med term downtrend move, but EW doesn't care about volume right?
That's not a descending triangle, or what we would call an ending diagonal in EW. It is invalid for more than one reason, but as they tend to break out sharply and quickly I can assure you that by now the better explanation is still the original impulse count which is plausible and valid. Look at the chinese chats, its inconsistent with an ED. We could still break up, but eyes on the prize, we are looking at the moment for this potential triangle to unfold in good form. Ive never used volume in EW but we recognise the character of volume in impulses. yes, there is a large descending triangle that fits with the bottoms at around 236 from near the top at 300, I won't draw it as my chart skills need some work, but it's this shape: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/descendingtriangle.aspactually my memory was wrong anyways, and it is traditionally bearish  it's the descending wedge that normally breaks out upwards... as with EW having multiple counts, we can see multiple lines on charts as well  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis
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on: March 31, 2015, 12:45:13 PM
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The failure of wave C to unfold as a clear impulse (at the time being) gives us a strong clue that a triangle is unfolding here as triangles unfold in five wave of 3 and are corrective moves.A triangle here changes the medium term count quite interestingly, as the decline towards 220 would become a terminal move, perhaps wave B of a larger flat, or something else, we shall see.  do you see a scenario where we break out upwards for a short/med term period? how would that fit into a count if at all? as per lebings chart, there is also a large descending triangle with similar contact points which traditional TA says "normally" breaks out up. this idea would fit with the depleting volume on this recent med term downtrend move, but EW doesn't care about volume right? |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis
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on: March 29, 2015, 10:51:15 PM
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Shouldn't ii (we're currently in) retrace at least 50% of previous i, which happens to be at 269.83 (1663 on Huobi), and which is only possible if subwave b is finished?
Ive never heard of a rule that states that wave i must retrace at least 50%, although I know that it often happens and is probably a guideline. I heard another EW analyst say that time wise, as a guideline, wave ii takes 50% of the time of wave i to complete also. We have had a 38% correction and with the form of this flat so far I think its a pretty good count. there is a general rule for classic TA that says retrace 50% to 2/3 of any major move that goes in the direction of the current trend. I think that rule is just a guideline. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis
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on: March 29, 2015, 12:22:50 PM
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I know this is ageism but it must be asked. Chessnut is 22? Why should his opinion about anything matter, especially investments?
I find that comment hillarious in many ways why should anyone's opinion about anything matter? what infinite variables could come into play, what biases, what cognitive illusions... it seems to me what's important to you is your opinion of his opinion. Anyways, In my recent return to "trading", in practice and in education, following this call down has been quite profitable I don't expect that to always be the case but take from that what you will. If you have invested, you should not be reading trading posts, you should stick to fundamentals and long term possibilities. Also it should be evident to anyone with an small amount of observation that in a space that is only 5 years old or so, age should not matter very much. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis
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on: March 25, 2015, 03:53:18 PM
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Very good call about drop some more and "a".. China is bullish, the real rebound is on a good way Thanks for sharing this at:) (i can't see it at tradingview yet) I wouldn't buy into the china news big time necessarily, seems they got a pump out of it, but the true effects will take time to materialise I'm speculating that the china pump was probably an attempt to get some momentum over this news: http://www.news.gov.hk/en/categories/finance/html/2015/03/20150325_150920.shtmlof course, news is always priced in. At least it is now I don't buy the idea that China is bullish, correction maybe incoming though of course |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis
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on: March 25, 2015, 02:24:17 PM
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Very good call about drop some more and "a".. China is bullish, the real rebound is on a good way Thanks for sharing this at:) (i can't see it at tradingview yet) I wouldn't buy into the china news big time necessarily, seems they got a pump out of it, but the true effects will take time to materialise |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 24, 2015, 08:08:27 PM
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Sentiment-wise, the fact that the longs haven't really budged much may indicate that they are the strong hands in this case.
Strong hands = profitable traders, experienced chart readers, well-capitalized, logical, non-emotional
Weak hands = newb traders, gamblers, simple indicator-based analysis, panicky, easy to shake out
That's a biggie. Good traders are good because they know how to manage risk. They won't risk 100% or their account on a margin trade. 50% is max, so if you have 10btc in your trading account you risk 5. That's a 15btc position if you're on 3:1. My reading of it is all based around an interpretation of the bitcoin "hodl" philosophy. At this stage my understanding is most of the recent bull run accumulation was done 220s - 240s (I don't have a chart, but the one below might help ) There is a quote here, at the bottom of this thread: https://www.tradingview.com/v/RyzPvDn8/This can't possibly bode well with respect to the 236 support. It's bound to be tested over the next 7 days, and judging from how weak BTC has been in the face of almost all support, I don't have high hopes. But I'm not selling my long position yet because in my experience, it is right after that when the thing turns around and RIPS. So basically I have no idea what to do. This, as far as I can read, is the sort of mentality most bitcoiners have. It fits neatly with loss aversion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversionIt also fits neatly with the fact that trading experiences, impatience and inability to trust ones decisions can all have a psychological toll (I know this from personal experience, as I'm sure most traders do from some stage in their lives). I assume that most bitcoiners on the whole are not experienced traders, and they have had their past experiences mostly painted with success. The best strategy has been, by and large, to hold. These past lessons paint present actions. Also, psychologically the risk of securing a loss by selling is more damaging than holding on for the potential of future gains. In general statistically speaking people sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long. I wonder what will happen around the 220 mark and below to all the longs. I noticed they twitching today at last... In short I think you are giving the whales, and the masses, too much credit |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends
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on: March 23, 2015, 06:13:27 PM
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Bitcoin is like Saturn god eating his children.
got it.. crystal clear. I'm not so clear, does that mean we go up or down? |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 21, 2015, 04:35:06 PM
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I totally agree, it's just been a lot of bear grumbling here today so I thought perhaps you had something to add. Although I see some of the signs of this going to smack to the ground, there are things that makes me feel like we are being played here. If you look at the movement ( http://bfxdata.com/combined/btc.php) from 20.00 to 24.00 on the 19th of March, which is followed by dead silence, that looks... And the sentiment at the time from everyone who is dead sure now was "WTF???", which tells me we might be staring at a trap, hopefully for bears. Then again, I really want this thing to go through the roof so I am quite biased. just to note: those scales are arbitrary, if you zoom out picture looks different |
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