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281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 15, 2021, 06:16:05 AM
Just some fun with charts





282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 07:03:02 AM
Problem is, I have no place to store it right now Sad Don't want to get rid of our Porsches.

Fuck.

283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 10:05:11 AM
284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2021, 07:33:30 AM
Hello 61k


285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2021, 07:14:40 AM
I'm in the same situation, my house is full of stuff, need somewhere to store it.

Just buy a second house.
286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2021, 08:17:53 AM
Similar to the recent subject about when should we start to measure BTC's price because of course, one of the very first transactions to buy two pizzas for 10k bitcoin might not be as representative as prices a few months down the road when larger numbers of trades are allowed and even locations for conducting such trades become more common.. so in that regard, there is a kind of product of the number of transactions and maybe the passage of time, and I do have some troubles gravitating on any price analysis that uses 2010 data because it seems so sporadic.. but it seems by the time that we are getting to 2011, even if the BTC price discovery is relatively immature, it seems fair enough to start to use that data rather than waiting for 2013 or some further down the road date - at least in my thinking.

I'd agree. I think that, barring contrary evidence, that is perfectly fine to consider as the seminal event in the price discovery for Bitcoin. I've always been wary of wanting to throw out data because it doesn't fit a narrative.

As Wayne Gretzky said, “I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.”

When trying to predict "where the puck is going?", it's important to consider its current position and its position 1 second before.

Because you can extrapolate from that data.

Knowing the puck position from 5 minutes ago, or even from the start of the game would not be very useful...
287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 08, 2021, 06:30:32 PM
How are the lower and the upper lines chosen?  You just pick a price starting point from January 2013?

Starting points do not matter, since the idea is to illustrate a slope, and compare it to the BLACK SLOPE of 200WMA.
I just think the slopes are approximately similar.

I am wondering if a large number of these folks really mean 100% per year, even though they are saying 200% per year...

No, it started with some recent article, that compared recent prices with the prices 10 years ago, and claimed that it triples every year. Everyone started repeating it, even Saylor who is smart enough to know better. So they're basing this conclusion on going way too much into the past, into unreliable territory of tiny volumes/prices.

Are you annoyed by their seeming to get the numbers wrong?  or are you annoyed because they are stealing your idea without giving proper credit?

The first.

I just think it's important to establish a rough estimate of a multi-year trend for such volatile asset. Since it's based on 4-year halving cycle, I think considering the last 8 years is fine, like on that PlanB's chart. His black 200WMA line is also fine, since it roughly keeps the slope year-after-year. It's almost linear.

288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 08, 2021, 05:21:15 PM
Actually, yes, it does (to a degree).

That wasn't really a trading. Just random numbers with tiny volume. Completely irrelevant.

What happened under $50 can and should be ignored.
289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 08, 2021, 03:57:34 PM
from $20 (two pizzas) for 10000 btc

No no no. Going that much back makes no sense. It was completely unreliable territory price-wise.
290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 08, 2021, 10:21:43 AM

I added "2x per year" trend lines to his chart...



It looks like his 200-weeks graph follows that "100% a year" trend quite nicely.

It's just too many people started talking about "200% a year" lately, even Saylor, which is annoying.
291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 04, 2021, 09:02:22 AM
292  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] What are NFTs? on: April 01, 2021, 11:25:27 AM
Simple electronic bank payment would solve their money transfer ‘problem’.  It’s legally recognised and well regulated.

Assuming that ‘problem’ even exists, which I doubt, because there would be a thousand startups in that space by now.

Sure, just like with air travel, paper tickets became obsolete years and years ago.

Not every problem needs decentralization.



P.S. And yes, we saw thousands of PayPal-like startups back then...
293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2021, 10:34:12 AM
NFT using 'blockchain' and 'crypto tokens' is a big red flag for me...

Simple electronic signature would solve their authentication 'problem'. It's legally recognised and well regulated.

Assuming that 'problem' even exists, which I doubt, because there would be thousand startups in that space by now.
294  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2021, 07:18:38 AM
Been thinking about selling the equation in my avatar ... how do I collect royalties if someone invents something incredibly lucrative using it?

You'd need to fix the last bracket, otherwise no respected equation connoisseur will buy it.
295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 31, 2021, 07:11:12 AM


296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2021, 10:24:48 AM
I wonder if SVG works here...



edit: works!
297  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2021, 10:36:57 AM

20x per epoch might be a bit too optimistic.

298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2021, 10:30:50 AM
299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2021, 07:56:48 AM
Perhaps some of the alternative media might offer better prospects.
Periodicals critical of communism like the Epoch Times spring to mind.

Even some left-leaning alternative media could be good, as long as they're not suffering from TDS...

I liked this Jimmy Dore / Max Keiser interview, for example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEdotUShvf8
300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 28, 2021, 08:28:27 AM
Economist, 2 years ago...



a bit later...



and now...


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