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1  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Trading, emotions and your fine selves on: April 26, 2018, 03:06:13 PM
I kind of understand your approach but wouldn't it be better and more effective to find out where you fail exactly in your strategy and then focus on fixing the broken part in a right way? I mean, not by offsetting one bias by another bias. If your approach works for you, then certainly stick to it, but it may fail you one day. For example, when what you automatically consider a bias is not in fact a bias but actual representation of the market situation.

Absolutely. Correcting mistakes in your strategies is also crucial. But OP asked about controlling your emotions, and I believe (a) that emotions are unavoidable to some degree for human traders, and (b) that they can be seen as some form of statistical biases. If removing these biases is not an option, then countering them in the way I described seems to be the next-best option.
2  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Trading, emotions and your fine selves on: April 26, 2018, 11:50:05 AM
I work under the assumption that controlling emotions in trading (and maybe in other aspects of life else as well) is practically unachievable for all or most of us. The best one can do, often with decent results, is recognizing them, and applying some (simple) self-hacks to counter these emotions.

I like to think of this process as applying 'filters' to my own biases, which I have observed over time in my own behavior and/or actions. Example: after noticing that I frequently act according to some bias (over a certain time frame, on a certain market), I will try to counter this bias by adjusting my current decisions in the opposite directions, e.g. lower my (subjective) probabilities for an upwards scenario to come true in case that, historically, I have suffered from a bullish bias in similar situations.

Like I said, kind of crude -- but so far, somewhat effective.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2018, 02:20:05 PM
Hey guys 'n gals.

Did I miss anything important? What's the big topic of the month?
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2018, 03:33:33 PM
Masterluc thinks it's over.

Quote from: Masterluc
Well, so the present drop ends somewhere in the red circle.

So, the price hit somewhere close to 61.7% Fibonacci of the entire growth from 150 to 19800.

You know what it means? That the Third (wave?) is completed and we became its witnesses =) For this, congratulations to you.

What's next? Next is the Fourth (going on now). And then the Fifth somewhere in the area of ​​100k.

The current drop will bounce back very well into the area of ​​13,000-15,000 in the short term, where those who bought up on my advice will be able to sell off, but have already managed to curse everything and wet the diapers. Bleed there, because it is not for you.

The critical level at 7700 does not really matter anymore, because I see that the wave is over.

Well, here's my idea for trading watching https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/


He seems to have a glaring error in his count. If the historical 3 is over and the historical 5 will go near the top trendline, then his historical 3 will be the shortest wave in height. His 3 would need to be a (3) for his count to make sense.

With all due respect for luc's remarkable track record over the years, he didn't exactly nail the market during the last ~3 months, right?

Approaching the 20k ATH, he repeatedly mentioned a (more or less) resistance-free path to 40k as the most likely scenario. After the ATH, he (correctly) predicted a steeper correction than many anticipated initially, but again: his most frequently mentioned scenario was staying above 10k as part of that correction. More recently, he talked about "three options", i.e. long-term scenarios, one of which saw price go to the current levels. But the way I understood him, this was supposed to be a sort of flash crash, since he's been advising to buy below 10k until last week or so.

I don't want to sound too dismissive: he's definitely worth following and reading, as always. I just increasingly get the feeling he's hedging his bets in the way he writes his predictions.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin capital fleeing to Ethereum? on: February 01, 2018, 01:59:23 PM
I don't understand the aversion to Ethereum (or other alts), especially from speculators that otherwise seem to be pretty dispassionate about the market.

What's wrong with holding a diversified long-term position, where the ratios approximately correspond to your long-term belief of success of the respective asset?

Taking that view, one could still have the most faith in BTC coming out on top, but grant that ETH serves a purpose as well, for example: as a bet on "single competent person in charge of an open-source project", think: Linus Torvalds and Linux kernel development.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 11:02:57 PM

That fuck! /rips off shirt/

HEY GIANCARLO!

YOU FUCKING WITH ODA.KRELL YOU'RE FUCKING WITH ME TOO ASSHOLE

https://imgur.com/gallery/Nxb6nZ1

Nice find. What a trip down memory lane.

Also, fuck 'finex.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2018, 10:05:32 AM
Ethereum keeps creeping up and taking over market share. Will ethereun slowly take over bitcoin? Kinda seems like its possible

I think there's a decent chance precisely that will happen within the next ~6 months or less.

That said, the market cap is mostly a meaningless metric anyway, largely an artifact of the ratio of total coin supply vs. traded supplies.

That said, if and when the overtakening happens, meaningless as it maybe be in fundamental terms, I do expect some noticeable market reaction.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2018, 10:46:18 PM

Why does reading this thread today make me think of Hannah Arendt at the Eichmann trial?

I mean, if Eichman would have also been boastful and a goldbug, in addition to being an anti-semitic psychopath.

That's some superb virtue signaling you did there.  Abe Foxman couldn't have done a better job.

So are you a super cuckold or part of the monkey tribes entering my civilization to take/ruin our nice things and our beautiful women?

I'm quite confident that both actively contributing to modern civilization, as well as beautiful women are more of a theoretical issue for you personally.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2018, 07:10:18 PM

Why does reading this thread today make me think of Hannah Arendt at the Eichmann trial?

I mean, if Eichman would have also been boastful and a goldbug, in addition to being an anti-semitic psychopath.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2018, 06:37:27 PM
Congrats, BobLawblaw. Well deserved. Now stop putting yourself at risk by flaunting it  (:

Also, if your profile age is your real age, that seems about the perfect age to retire. If you're much older and retire, it's hardly different from regular retiring, if you're much younger, it somehow feels wrong to me, like you're dropping out too early.
11  Economy / Exchanges / Your support response times are inacceptable, Poloniex on: January 15, 2018, 07:00:42 PM
I've been a customer of Poloniex for many years now. I've always had a good experience with them: trading went smooth, and withdrawals were never a problem. However, this changed recently.

I submitted a support ticket, requesting an increase of my withdrawal limits, on December 6th. I noted that, given my current limits, it would take months for me to withdraw even a fraction of my funds. I asked which documentation they require to enhance my verification level -- and haven't received a response for 40 days now.

I can understand that under the current load of new customers, support times across all exchanges tend to be longer than usual. But 40 days of waiting time is no longer acceptable. I'm not overly fond of public ultimatums, but since Poloniex choses not to interact on any communication channel, I don't have much of a choice:

If I haven't received an answer to my support ticket #554603 within 10 business days, I will take legal action to take possession of my funds currently held on Poloniex. I still hope this outcome can be avoided, but I will not allow Poloniex to effectively hold my funds hostage without an explanation or any sort of response.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Critical Levels - EW analysis on: December 16, 2017, 10:00:32 PM
No reason to gloat or ridicule, chessnut made great calls over and over again.

That said, part of trading this market successfully also requires knowing when it's best to skip predictions of the tops, and ride it out as long as possible -- only reacting after a clear shift of sentiment. As in: getting out on a rebound after a massive correction, not trying to time it and do so before.
13  Bitcoin / Electrum / Minor tweak to increase usability on: December 08, 2017, 05:13:42 PM
Since the recent change that shows 'change' addresses separately, the 'coins' tab is now effectively the best way to get a quick overview of your funded addresses. The label used there however seems to be taken over from the last transaction, not the corresponding address label.

I think it would be more consistent, and increase usability, if the address list inside the 'coins' tab would use address label information instead. If you agree, perhaps you could consider making that change at some point in the future.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2017, 11:49:56 AM
 I seem to have morphed into persona non grata amongst many 'round these here parts.
 

You have not quite reach my levels, but you are getting close...  Tongue Tongue   Cheesy

Relax youse guys. It's not like you're anti-semitic goldbugs.

Big-blockism and verbosity are small potatoes.

Let's save persona-non-grata status for FUD-spamming 5-character-random-lowercase-username-noob trolls.

Must. Resist. Adopting. Anti-semitic gold bug big blocker permabear persona...
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 14, 2017, 03:15:29 PM
I am now conflicted, I really don't want BCC which I dislike to have A marketcap lower than that of cripple which I hate.

Is it sneaking into your bed at night and putting its fingers in your knickers? If not then you may as well let it do its thing.

At least Ripple lubes up in those case. BCH went in a bit too dry, for my taste.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: End of bubble, recovery impossible. on: September 14, 2017, 01:55:22 PM
Then I guess this proves Duck is not a clock. He has been predicting the imminent desth of bitcoin for years and has yet to be right once. Much less twice a day.

reminds me of something...

17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 14, 2017, 12:53:21 PM

Prove that you're the real r0ach by unloading some of your finest tinfoil-y antisemitic low-resolution jpeg montages.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 14, 2017, 12:28:51 PM
[...]

My question is, where do you think this support will be found? Is it already found (3600ish), is it 3200-3000 or further down?

My naive bet would be that weekly SMA (~3k and rising) seems to be a watershed level. But the market's also wisening up all the time to previous 'rules', hence, emphasis on 'naive'.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 14, 2017, 12:04:02 PM

"Back to $200! Bear market any minute now!" ... "It's just a flesh wound! 10k by the end of the year!"

How about: the market is testing the downside after huge gains were made during the past months. And "continuation or reversal?" will be largely determined by how this test proceeds? (e.g. support will or will not be found at a level which suggests the larger bullish trend remains intact)
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis on: September 07, 2017, 02:21:27 PM
Paper gains help no one. I spent a bit around the $1000 mark. I'd been sitting doing nothing with it and felt like it was time BTC financed some actual enjoyment. Am I desperately embittered? Nah. It was free profit that was spent and it provided a high quality time.

I wouldn't spend significant amounts on depreciating tat, but equally there's no point in leaving a vast fortune to a cat protection home after living your final years in one rented room wearing carrier bags on your feet.

If it fulfils its potential it'll continue to appreciate forever. None of us will be here forever.


I'd be surprised if quite a few people in here didn't believe exactly that. See:

@article{botstein2017cryonics,
  title={Cryonics, Anti-aging and Transhumanism: Savviness and Naivety in the Cryptosphere},
  author={Botstein, Patrick and Dong, Wei},
  year={2017},
}
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