Nope ... look again ... 55k BTC  

Agree, probably on a 10x. So 5.5k BTC on the line as margin ...

I agree with you about the BFX shorts ... that looks like a recipe for disaster :/

This OKC one does too, but its a bit more complex - been watching it while and seemed pretty obvous it was a short due to the, at times, > $80 discount on the quarterly vs weekly and even more vs spot. Also, this position is roughly 50% of the open interest. Not possible to close it in an orderly fashion if it goes the wrong way. Period. And the holder knows this and knew it when he took that size position relative to the market.
However, due to it having an expiry, the owner deos not have to close it. And at any point he can just walk away and take the hit having withdrawn the max maintenance margin/profit possible. The loss from there would be max 5k BTC, possibly only 2.5k, depending on the leverage used, and nothing would actually have to be bought on market at all. The longs just get fucked and not paid out. The OKC futures market is a zero sum game.

If it then gets stopped out, the net result will likely be that there is a massive buy order sitting there unfilled in the OKC futures order book, the loss will be 'socialised' ie. anyone betting against him will not make any money. Its a truly fucked up scenario that will likely doom the exchange imo.

More than that, I would be very surprised if this is not an insider of sorts who has taken this position. Either an OKC 'associate' or a PBoC 'family member'. Only someone with access/control to policies of OKC and or PBoC would commit to such a thing imo. It is insanity otherwise.

The fact that we appear to have two 'systemic risk' sized positions in the market, in the same direction, at the same time, is very disconcerting tbh.

Maybe they know something, maybe they dont. Maybe they can influence things, maybe they can't. But both are too big for this market and are unlikley to end well unless 'shenanigans'. Watch out for a BFX  'hack' ...

Yup, buy spot popcorn, enough for 4-6 weeks!!

So ... sideways then lol

Also, yes, it is my understanding that the ETF has to be officially 'approved' by  the SEC, so 'no comment' = 'no ETF', not 'approved'. Deadline on this is 11th March. No more extensions.
From what I read, most ETF that are not going to be approved are withdrawn close to the final date to save face (ie they are given a nudge, gentlemans agreement style)
I wonder what the twins would choose in this scenario (we may never ge to find out of course!)

 

Nobody is saying it *has to* happen ...
Some are just more open-minded to alternate possibilites and paths than others
OP's count looks perfectly valid in EW terms to me, but its not the *only* count

And in those words of deep wisdom lie the answer to exactly why it can happen 

http://blog.bitfinex.com/uncategorized/site-update/


Perhaps this is the problem ...

Yeh, there's sthg very wrong about that 

To be frank Fakhoury, I do think having a 'Bullish news' thread is amusing, but you are free to create whatever threads you want and I am free to have my own opinion on it. It's just not a place I would ever want to hang out

JJG : x-talk ... was not referring to you as a permabull. I'm not quite sure what you are ... 'special' ??  

I'm fine Fakhoury, it was you who brought up the issue of hating, which I don't ... i really don't understand your point.


Lol - there was an extremely heavy dose of sarcasm in my post 

Keep doing what your doing, fine by me, but the 'club' you are asking me to join is myopic IMO. I will never jump in a box labelled 'permabull', but only 'non-permabulls' will understand my true thoughts behind that. I guess I just don't drink enough Kool-aid. Wtf is a 'maximalist' anyway?  

I will put it simply - I find crypto and the future of digital money very interesting. But I am not 'married' to BTC (or anything else). We are still in the very early stages of an experiment, and watchng it unfold is very informative and educational in so many ways. Close your mind to the multitude of possibilities at your peril.

No hating ... but I will meet fire with fire when necessary I feel like it  

JJG, I don't dislke him, he just bores the pants off me with his monologues

You have not noticed it in a year? Wtf have you been doing ? Writing essays or something?

Not possible to link to deleted post, and I am sure you can find the thread yourself with your technical skills - its been going for about a year  

Hint : Look on the front page of this subforum, a few rows down

^^ Won't argue with that   ... selling gold for BTC, BTC Debit Cards, offering BTC purchase with CC for 8% fee lol - more 'signs of desperation' than a 'thriving business'  

The one unkonwn is what they do OTC, now that they are 'licensed from Luxembourg' - sounds shady as fuck, rubber stamped by Eurpean elites ...

lol ... I suppose you called that too right, well in advance. Writing was on the wall for all to see there for a long time. Here you are claiming something entirely different. More 'smearing' I would call it.

To be fair,you could claim that all of the BTC/crypto exchanges will steal from and you would probably have a hit ratio >50%  over time - it's hardly rocket science , just the nature of the beast

FWIW I do agree from the reports I have read that Coinbase is overly invasive and heavy-handed when it comes to KYC and shutting accounts. But for a 'regulated' exchange base in the US that is harldy a surprise.
Stamp likes to 'probe' a lot too... it begins ...

You already said goodnight once , now GTFO and massage your sore parts
Or be a man an identify yourself ...

EDIT: I see you deleted the same 'Fuck Eth shit' post from Fakhoury's 'Only bullish things can be said about Bitcoin' thread ... definitely not r0ach - now I see you 

r0ach, is that you ? Sure sounds like you ...
EDIT : Hmmm .. the 'thank you and good night' part is a bit out of character

Someone is sure butthurt ...

You also told us that BitStamp would not come back online after the hack 18 months ago, but here it is
I think you might be a bit overly sensitive to these things ...

I don't doubt there is some PR involved in their actions, but hey ... that's hardly new in crypto ...

 

Is there any news on the Twinkles' Eth ETF yet?  

Elon Musk is pooping his pants right now 
What if they decide to build a rocket too ??

LMAO !! Thanks for that