Don't you just hate it when Bitcoin just 'ignores' you and does what the hell it wants? grrrrrr...

He sold at $10 worth for Pizza's. He likely bought it back at $10 or thereabouts in price as a very early person. He likely found he was likely famous enough

to not put his name out there 'more' even back in the day. He is likely just dandy, btc wise. IMHO, you'd almost have to buy the $10 of BTC back ..even if you spent

$100 along the way to do so or more...'just in case' knowing that if you did not...(as the hype went up) you'd be bitter. Or hell I would never talk to anyone about this

if I never got that amount of BTC back, almost immediately after the stunt.

Everyone pretty much agrees that Satoshi was a bit of an Anarchist.....so it is possible...as to what would happen....BTC (briefly) would be worthless.....

if someone showed that Satoshi 'at one time' sold all his BTC. Well, then if the founder has no faith, no one else would either.

Another thought is what if someone famous is Satoshi....like Epstien? Or such a famous person (kim kardasian, trump, or someone else famous but 'less than ideal'

was a major whale from close to day one..that also would sink the boat.

Politics will stay a mess till the unlimited money goes away in politics, Citizen's United Supreme Court case.

Been what 15 years or more of such above. Thus the person with the most $$$ in the Primary wins. Thus the more corrupt to $$$ in politics wins.

This 'accelerates' over time to the worst of the worst and in the politics for 'themselves' and not actually to 'accomplish' anything of note are the ones

destined to win the Primary, in that the more they 'bow' to vested interests, the more likely this outcome and distills to the most self centered over time.

You can see this in play now. You have a shutdown which hurts your constituents. If you are the party in power IF you go against the Executive Branch

you lose your Primary...never to darken the door of your particular brand of  Politics again (last three such house Republican speakers who tried to get

bills passed with a mix of both parties on such bills)

IF you follow the Executive and you are giving up Congressional Authority to do so you are golden.You only care about yourself and your re-election.

IF however you 'buck' the executive and 'lose' your primary, no

cushy Ambassadorship, or being a pundit on TV News afterwards. You are branded a tratior and all the $$ you need to get re-elected goes poof from

the vested elite...*see examples of moderates forced out of Congress*

If you "lose' to the Opposition however you are still 'golden' you fought the good fight and lost..but you were loyal to the whatever supposed cause (IMHO $$$)

Also as with most such things with power you can 'only' fall upwards on such you will be fine.

So the 'worst' thing for graft/power/self-interest is to 'lose' your Primary. Even if the USA
 
burns as a result. Parties no longer can threaten withholding $$$ to get people to vote in a certain way. As local politics with unlimited $$$ can be one

without local $$$.

I am discouraged on a way out of this cycle of $$$ in politics today and now to get out of such.

Note: There are a 'lot' of p/o'd moderate Republicans and fiscally conservative Republicans that WILL run in the Primaries of the party in 2026. No Democrat

will win in the South, but again, from the noise a lot of moderate republicans will challenge in the primary. So the catch is 1) will this work and maybe get

something done in Congress on bills as such? or 2) Will they be overwhelmed by the massive $$$ keeping incumbents in place and 'lose' the Primary....by 'vested'

interests in the status quo. I'm pretty Liberal, but I can say with certainty that IF moderate (sane) republicans don't get back into Congress the above will

continue to 'distill' worse and worse people winning primaries and maybe elections over and over again...and constituents concerns or the party in question will

have no sway in a congress running amuck like a herd of cats, responsible only to $$ they can make and power they can keep.

Sorry i don't have a lot of faith the current Supreme Court will change Citizen's United and Unlimited $$ directly to Politicians. It will likely get even more harsh

and gridlocked.

Politics will stay a mess till the unlimited money goes away in politics, Citizen's United Supreme Court case.

Been what 15 years or more of such above. Thus the person with the most $$$ in the Primary wins. Thus the more corrupt to $$$ in politics wins.

This 'accelerates' over time to the worst of the worst and in the politics for 'themselves' and not actually to 'accomplish' anything of note are the ones

destined to win the Primary, in that the more they 'bow' to vested interests, the more likely this outcome and distills to the most self centered over time.

You can see this in play now. You have a shutdown which hurts your constituents. If you are the party in power IF you go against the Executive Branch

you lose your Primary...never to darken the door of your particular brand of  Politics again (last three such house Republican speakers who tried to get

bills passed with a mix of both parties on such bills)

IF you follow the Executive and you are giving up Congressional Authority to do so you are golden.You only care about yourself and your re-election.

IF however you 'buck' the executive and 'lose' your primary, no

cushy Ambassadorship, or being a pundit on TV News afterwards. You are branded a tratior and all the $$ you need to get re-elected goes poof from

the vested elite...*see examples of moderates forced out of Congress*

If you "lose' to the Opposition however you are still 'golden' you fought the good fight and lost..but you were loyal to the whatever supposed cause (IMHO $$$)

Also as with most such things with power you can 'only' fall upwards on such you will be fine.

So the 'worst' thing for graft/power/self-interest is to 'lose' your Primary. Even if the USA
 
burns as a result. Parties no longer can threaten withholding $$$ to get people to vote in a certain way. As local politics with unlimited $$$ can be one

without local $$$.

I am discouraged on a way out of this cycle of $$$ in politics today and now to get out of such.

Note: There are a 'lot' of p/o'd moderate Republicans and fiscally conservative Republicans that WILL run in the Primaries of the party in 2026. No Democrat

will win in the South, but again, from the noise a lot of moderate republicans will challenge in the primary. So the catch is 1) will this work and maybe get

something done in Congress on bills as such? or 2) Will they be overwhelmed by the massive $$$ keeping incumbents in place and 'lose' the Primary....by 'vested'

interests in the status quo. I'm pretty Liberal, but I can say with certainty that IF moderate (sane) republicans don't get back into Congress the above will

continue to 'distill' worse and worse people winning primaries and maybe elections over and over again...and constituents concerns or the party in question will

have no sway in a congress running amuck like a herd of cats, responsible only to $$ they can make and power they can keep.

Sorry i don't have a lot of faith the current Supreme Court will change Citizen's United and Unlimited $$ directly to Politicians. It will likely get even more harsh

and gridlocked.

I like the time/date a person got on Bitcointalk.


Now, make the chart by date so I look 'cooler' (kidding)

Well, seems like the 'recession' is well on the way. IMHO. (Again, want to be 'dead wrong' FYI)

Bitcoin is first to cash out 24/7. Layoffs, bills to pay, the 2nd lake cabin you need to pay off, the cc max'd out...H.E.L max'd out, etc etc.

Recession: Suddenly everyone gets their finances together, tanking consumer spending or 70% of the Economy all at the same time. Humans. Yech.

So this usually takes a couple years of "Adult'ing' to shake out....seems a little more odd this time around, society and politics wise so could be more years than that.

So I fully expect that Tesla, and other corporate types, that can show a profit to dump Bitcoin again like the last correction and we find out has

been selling them at the high till they are forced to report such as a Corporation. Rinse/Wash/Repeat. Bitcoin, as in the past, may  dump hard like real estate or farmland,  

first as such with 24/7 panic sells, as a result of crisis, etc. But Bitcoin will

IMHO, the first to bounce back.

So HODL. Again, IMHO, I don't see a lot of other assets you can dump 24/7 if you have to recover some fiat....

so see BTC as 'Canary' in the coal mine...the first to faint...the first to get out of the coal mine.

Be a Canary. HODL. This too shall pass.

Searing's Adage on Bitcoin
------------------------------

1) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is 'pumping' you will get in when it is 'dumping'.

2) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is 'dumping' you will get in when it is still 'dumping' just lower down the chain.

3) If 'everyone' says Bitcoin is going sideways....you will 'wait' to buy because it is too high or not low enough....when stable on sideways..it confuses you.

4) IF when you buy everyone and else sells (buddies) and when you sell everyone else buys (buddies) and they get mad if they are not informed of your actions before

hand....you have a problem

5) Bitcoin is a "merciless bitch' so don't time the market above...just HODL and at least accumulate some more btc dust.....failure is your friend it forces

you eventually to HODL.

The above is 'mostly' correct but only applies to me personally....which I guess I should be thankful for...above 'beat me into HODL'ing' all these years.....stupidity on the

above and failure saved me and made me the HODL'er I am  since 2015 (coward..cower and HODL) ...I am today.....sheesh....lame but hey it seems to still be working.


Meanwhile, Bitcoin,  the 'merciless slut' is out on the street again...lowering price to flash her knickers at the world and make my blood pressure boil....grrrr....

she will come back right, she loves me right,....she won't crush my dreams? grrrr....

IMHO, BTC will 'soar' IF they ever get Congress (House set to resume??? no sooner then Jan 2026) to get this merged BTC bill passed which will

1) Not tax income from mining...only selling....ie I can be a 'farmer' and just HODL and pay cap gains when I sell BTC

2) BTC will be a 'commodity' and I will be allowed to use it like above farmers,do with crops, and 'borrow' against the land without selling the land in an emergency.

3) As being in the traditional frame of reference like my regular traditional investments IF I lose $$ by borrowing against my crypto at say an 8% loan to myself

like farmers borrow against land, per say, while keeping private keys. I am then 'allowed' to take losses as this is a 'loan' off of say my traditional investments

if the economy tanks. So if I borrow say $100k at 8%....I can apply this against my regular income from other traditional investments. As an expense (a loan) and

write off some of the interest. I mean at bonds paying what 4% and borrow at 8% and take say 2% off as losses of other transitional investments if they go down..

(assuming I have this right) I will do this all day long at 4-5% bonds and bet on btc beating such easily in returns..again..if stock market corrects that is.

The 'notion that as  a Farmer who does NOT sell the

land, in my case that would be 15% cap gains and 10% state taxes for 25%. The Farmer simply 'borrows' against the land at current rate (today) of 8%. I 'long' to be t

treated like a farmer and allowed to HOLD crops or in my case HODL BTC and not get taxed on my crops like the farmer (mining) as such. Kid wants to be a Vet

and go to Vet School, a Farmer will borrow against the land with such simple protections in place (no private key issues in case of btc evolves as such) they do

not sell the land to get the kid through Vet school and/or any other emergency..in my case at 15% cap gains and 10% state tax hit. Just saying, sounds wonderful.

So some of above are assumptions...I need 1) above to happen and even though I don't mine anymore...the resulting explosion of the pump on such an event

would be awesome.

But that will require that Congress ever gets back together again. Which may not happen, in the sense that 'even though' currently most of above is bi-patisan

and 'supposedly' will pass. With so much 'bad blood' ..if this drags on to Jan 2025....it may all fall apart along with every other attempted bill in 2026.

Anyway, my view, explained badly, but you get my drift.

On the other hand.....the big guys like Blackrock and soon to be others can move the market in the following ways....IMHO the 'last' time a few years ago when the big

thought of the day was 'big institutions' getting into bitcoin then it crashed and they all leaped out ASAP....they were 'newbs' at the time. They were

treating btc like regular stuff they would sell and move. What I mean by this is...they made good money the end of that previous year on the pump so as

people who trade as a profession for their corporate masters...they looked good and more important you only get a 'bonus' or keep your jobs if in profit.

The next year when BTC dumped and they dumped too....most I think did so at the the front end where they could still show like 5% or more profit on their

actions..thus the job safe and maybe a bit smaller bonus...but 'whew' they moved out. These folk have NO reason to HODL in the line of work they do. Does

not pay.

Now 'today' they have more slack as trading professionals then above and in the past..the corporate masters are like 'we are in this more long term now'

but STILL they will dump on movement downward on dumps and upward on pumps in some kinda range to keep them looking good and bonus's intact.

Unless it is a corporation like Saylor's Micro Strategy....with the emphasis on HODL'ing as a long term strategy they can get comfortable with and keep their

jobs vs performance and bonus by such actions this is just gonna be the trend of the future...NOTE: it is too easy to play it in the middle or sideways with price and

wait to ride up a pump on previous bought and ride down a dump by cashing out first.....remember this is how they make $$$ on market trading and

some of this transfers to places like Blackrock./etc. As long as BTC say or Gold or Land or some such 'beats' the % return yearly on US bonds all will be

well as they play their games in this, IMHO, brief 'head scratching to us HODL'er's' game in this brief window of up/down/sideways trading which I won't touch.

But again, I tell newbs getting into BTC by selling stuff in attic they otherwise will die with and get some btc dust and HODL (longer) but in their mind at least till

2035 when 99% of btc has been mined...what do you think is going to do better in the, IMHO, turbulent future in the next decade....US bonds as a safe haven

or bitcoin dust. But again....even if corporate types only have 6-10% of all bitcoin IF they act in concert and they control 'most' of the liquidity...I expect a lot

more 'odd' behavior because of the above mindset of professional traders that do this for a living ..compared to us HODL'er types.....ie....just gonna be a lot of weird

as short term logic of a dubious nature ...again IMHO. From historical past before their was the federal reserve in the like late 1890's or so of boom/bust bank cycles

with little attempts and even 'trying' to have banks under adult supervision...I figure it will be at 'least' that weird in btc/crypto world, especially as odd as the world is

risk wise for at least the next 10 years...so trying to 'acclimatize' my mind to this. I just HODL so it is just a thought experiment ...how anybody can play these games

at all is beyond my meager logic and again in next 10 years is gonna be trading horrors'.....only angle I have is just watch it as a spectator sport...and HODL.

As I've stated before. IF we have a quick ugly down turn (fast) btc will get cashed out on an emergency basis....in that folks are caught by surprise

with cc maxed out and job loss, etc, etc.

IF it is more 'gradual' to the same bottom on a down turn of whatever flavor we should be fine..in gradual means it will act like a store of value

anyway, IMHO.

my 2 satoshi's worth

Poor Univ Student Trick: Toss in a hot dog when the Ramen Noodles are boiling...2 meals in one!

'


Timing and HODL I'll give you that....Timing on when to move sell that some claim to be able to do (sell on the high and buy on the low) er ...nope...

no skills in that...proven repeatedly....

Yep in the past 2015....and before I would sell at always the wrong time...it was so bad to this day I have btc/crypto friends that would get really, really, pissed

if I sold anything and did not tell them in that 9 out of 10 they would buy and make a killing...recently got laughed at about this and TOLD this was still in place

so yeah...boring got me into BTC and boring keeps me HODL'ing BTC....to far down the line to change now

I have no 'skillz' in timing anything in my life at all...why should this be any different?

Bitcoin: "You Merciless Bitch". I've not idea what is going on with price...never will and never can..IMHO.

So price dumps when France announces today that they want to get 2% of all BTC in the world by extra electric from their various sources and mine..and

also what they seize and other methods for national btc treasury or at least a law was proposed for such

and Bitcoin: The Merciless Bitch, that it is...goes down like $3k in price

and people wonder why I always HODL and never sell BTC. Sheesh...explain this all to me..'use small words'

but now...unlike the internet (which faced this choice) you as a community are responsible for the blockchain (ie river) and bad actors.....it should not be

done in that context or 'suddenly' if we can control the blockchain in such a world it would be like suddenly the internet having to vet all content

it would be 'un-doable'...thus the question should never get raised in this manner

should be 'clutter' as a security issue..not framed as a 'decision' even by 'consensus' can be used against us in the future

ask any lawyer about this tricky path of 'good intentions' and how suddenly it is 'responsibility' with consequences if unable to regulate...

just saying...they tried this tactic with going after ISP's...best to ignore the whole concept...ie...the river is important for commerce...trash

by bad actors does not effect the river

anyway, I know squat..just my view back when they 'tried' to regulate ISP's and the Internet using same arguments

As an aside...the problem with knotts is..."once" you make it known that 'illegal' stuff on the blockchain has something to do with what bitcoin code is doing

it is exactly like saying that the internet can get sued by content...a slippery slope....best in whatever scenario wins this is NOT brought up at all....but too

late I guess will be used to 'control' btc blockchain content as a plan by politician's and others from this point on

remember I know zip..just saying the 'premise' is flawed......you don't shut off the river because trash is dumped into it...

(don't beat me up here too badly...I'm old, bored and likely clueless) anyway what first pop'd into my head on all this angst going on

er..don't you have to pay cap gains on each of the above switherroo's .....remember the 'blockchain' remembers and tools can find you on such with btc pretty

easy..years ago arguments on this in 2013 I was foolish not to hide mining gains...went to CPA from 2013 till 2019 when I was out of mining a lot less angst on

keeping IRS happy on $150 btc as it went up along the way mining ..then dealing with KYC now let me tell you

anyway...maybe above has no cap gains in above switching..just seems to me it needed to be as such (or losses or gains etc)

From my view of Satoshi.....he is like Banksy....IMHO..IF he was still alive (which I'd bet not) he would have ALREADY pulled a Banksy and either 1) burnt all his

addresses or 2) sold it all to dump btc price.....he would have done it years ago before centralized mining and the rest

they IMHO are alike as 'anarchists' against the current system....so my only conclusion is that Satoshi has passed away and the keys are lost ...

again, IMHO

the whole if you want to have a secret between 2 people last forever one of them must be dead theory...this is just too big to be otherwise, again, IMHO