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661  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: July 26, 2014, 02:40:21 PM
Argentina is near the tipping point: http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/25/investing/argentina-default/index.html?hpt=hp_t4

We need some actions in bitcoin land! Is there any chart that can be overlay on the bitcoin chart correlate to the world financial crisis?

Good question....

Draper (winner of the Silk Road auction) said he was going to bring BTC liquidity to Countries like Argentina (and he might have mentioned them by name) in the form of exchanges I believe. Get a mivin Mr. Draper...
Glad to see BTC adoption starting to really move, but we have to get it where it is really needed.

wouldn't argentina be vehemently against this? wouldn't they want to force people to hold on to paper notes? draper would need cooperation with the argentine government.

Yes, but I think it depends how bad things get and look.
If leaders are in danger of a popular revolt and being hung,(and don't think that can't happen), then they might bend. They might even be sold on it in other ways (use your imagination).

In another way leaders may not realize what the cryptos can do, and let them go by the wayside, so to speak. The quick move from their money into BTC might catch them off guard and be too late to stop. We can hope anyway.

The way Draper sounded is that this is being worked on. And, you don't just buy 30,000 BTC without doing lots of homework.

662  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][SWARM] Swarm - Cryptoequity Crowdfunding - Official Thread on: July 26, 2014, 07:50:42 AM

Looks like we sold about 9,587,746 SWARMPRE, so that's how many SWARM will be distributed. The remainder of 14,412,254 will be burned. As for future rounds, there is no immediate plan to do one and we will only consider doing so once we have a prototype platform that has some initial traction and needs more funding to scale.


Ok, but don't forget

How much SWARM will be in limbo for "future rounds of funding" ?

68,000,000

How much SWARM will "Swarm Reserve" be ?

8,000,000


So I guess

9,587,746 SWARM distributed
8,000,000 SWARM in Swarm Reserve
68,000,000 SWARM in limbo ?

or the 68,000,000 will be destroyed too ?

also, you stated that


IIRC, 24,000,000 SWARM will be divided proportionally between the SWARMPRE holders at the end of the fundraise (20th July)

If 4500 SWARMPRE are sold, every SWARMPRE will yield 1 SWARM. Currently (33% raised) 1 SWARMPRE will yield 3 SWARM

Correct. We haven't made any specific promises with respect to our giveback model since, among other things, it is legally problematic. Generally speaking we encourage people to think of the first iteration of Swarm as a crypto-kickstarter with some cool perks of not particularly clear monetary value rather than an investment.

So basically, the SWARM are not divided proportionally, you get 8,000,000 for the reserves (which is proportionally three times what it should have been) and there are 68,000,000 SWARM in limbo (more than 7 times the SWARM that will be distributed while it should have been a bit less than 3 times)

This is confusing to say the least, the rules are everchanging... I would be nice to state what will happen in the future and commit to the plan




+1 Well put.

In General:
If coins that are on the side (14 mill?) of the "investors" will be destroyed then the same should happen the "other" side in a proportional ratio. (And even then it should be openly discussed as the whole idea about Swarm, in part at least, is sharing, just as the example of the Facebook purchase of Oculus.) No unfair advantage, or disadvantage, should be given to either side.

Basically if the fundraiser didn't raise the planned on amount, then the fundraisers themselves should not get an amount that now dillutes those "investors".
Hope that made sense.

Its about sharing
663  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: July 25, 2014, 09:33:05 PM
Argentina is near the tipping point: http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/25/investing/argentina-default/index.html?hpt=hp_t4

We need some actions in bitcoin land! Is there any chart that can be overlay on the bitcoin chart correlate to the world financial crisis?

Good question....

Draper (winner of the Silk Road auction) said he was going to bring BTC liquidity to Countries like Argentina (and he might have mentioned them by name) in the form of exchanges I believe. Get a mivin Mr. Draper...
Glad to see BTC adoption starting to really move, but we have to get it where it is really needed.
664  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: July 25, 2014, 08:20:04 PM
mmitech (as well as windjc) are banned from this thread, and the castle, for their stubborn unrespectful attitude.

Sorry, but that enlarged section of your post just made me LOL.

Regarding BTC and price, even though down, looks like we are hitting oversold territory on the daily.
665  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Litecoin is officially dead on: July 24, 2014, 07:35:39 PM
if this is so, someone explain to me step-wise and drastic increase in litecoin difficulty level despite "obsolete" scrypt

http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/litecoin-difficulty-chart

Hashrate/difficulty doesn't necessarily mean the coin is useful, ASICs got added to the network recently, miners hoping to get a ROI. Not useful = dead. It paused falling for now, nothing falls in a straight line, but it'll resume its fall soon. Miners hoping to get a ROI doesn't necessarily mean they will get it.

I agree, those ASIC miners will simply dump all their litecoins(as weve been seeing) to gain profit/break even, thus reducing the price. Litecoin will fall into oblivion.
This is an interesting point.
Further, as the price of LTC stagnates and more and more of these ASIC rigs come out, who is going to be buying them? How many of the "farms" will be by the actual producers?
I say fewer individuals will be buying them and more producers will be putting them to use. How deep are their pockets? (Meaning can they sit on them hoping for a higher price? I don't think so.)
Now, when they try to sell them, is the demand there? Lots of LTC are mined every day and with a falling price, volume and interest - this could get interesting, ugly or who knows what.
666  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread on: July 23, 2014, 06:42:59 PM
I see it as Poloniex tries to keep as much trading of Monero on their exchange as possible. Monero was 60-70% Poloniex volume from time it joined. I agree will not make huge difference. But still is some recognition of the coin.

But it might make a huge difference. If a whale wants to move some coins and another whale wants to buy Monero for a different crypto he is holding, it is off the order book, so to speak. Seems like it can increase liquidity also. And perhaps the anonymous nature of Monero fuels this more. More variables just got added...

I say things are getting more interesting.
667  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning on: July 23, 2014, 04:23:08 PM
But still it seems to be a very big chance for those who want to risk. This is an 41 day opportunity to get Ethereum at the beginning, something like mining BTC on your personal PC in 2010...

FIFY  Smiley

A T/C and Purchase Agreement, dear god, it's too official for me.  Regulation will kill Crypto.  Satoshi rolling over in his bed/grave right now.

I think you got that a bit backwards.
If anything, Crytpo will be the future of regulation and it will not come from above on down, rather from us to them.  Wink
668  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning on: July 23, 2014, 04:20:05 PM
Terms of ether sale:

https://www.ethereum.org/pdfs/TermsAndConditionsOfTheEthereumGenesisSale.pdf

clause 19.9

Risk that Ethereum Platform May Never be Completed or Released.

Purchaser understands, that while Ethereum Team will make reasonable efforts to complete the Ethereum
software, it is possible that an official completed version of the Ethereum Platform may not be released
and there may never be an operational Ethereum Platform.  Undecided

This is poor form.

I see, raise money and put as many out clauses as possible, that will inspire confidence!

I'm sure they will deliver, but I never expected such legal manipulation from the Ethereum team.


To be fair, there are things like this and much, much worse in most EULAs that people click through.  Not saying this isn't a cause for concern, but it's just as likely that
the team had a lawyer draw up the EULA and something like that isn't really suprising.

Law is about balance, especially when it comes to situations that are not as clear cut as your average contract.

This EULA sounds like it was written by your standard lawyer who will cover his clients every possible outcome without regard to any possible fallout due to the EULA being too biased.

A smarter lawyer would discuss with their client about potential clauses that can cover them but that could backfire due to being not in the clients customers interest at all.

Not all lawyers see things in such a dull manner and understand that some terms are going to be politically sensitive and need review.

This clause should have been left out, with regard to how many scams the Bitcoin community has undergone. I personally have lost hundreds of Bitcoin to scams. If the Ethereum team fail to launch a working system we need the ability to face them in court. This forces them to work for the money we are sending them.

This lawyer did not understand the complex matter of the current Bitcoin investment climate.
These are the terms being offered. Don't like it, don't invest. Even with such open ended terms, they're going to get thousands upon thousands of Bitcoin.

What is wrong with discussion? Your statement sounds like a reformation of "You are either with us or you are against us."
If anything, these Cryptos are about more than black and white choices.
669  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: July 23, 2014, 03:33:44 PM
If Monero were to hypothetically achieve some modest measure of global success

I was kind of foggy on what exactly would happen in the future with crypto until recently, but I think Daniel Larimer has unknowingly sealed it's fate with DPOS.  Governments don't like to be ejected from money affairs.  I foresee them taking something like DPOS, and instead of having 101 delegates, they will simply make each member of the UN a delegate, and boom, you have your New World Order, sovereign approved currency.

That scenario could be good in some ways, since it would most likely make things finite, or get rid of unaccountable government spending in other words, but through increased globalization, it could also be the start of world government, or god know's what else.

*this is not an endorsement to buy bitshares, since they would most likely just clone it and not actually use bitsharesX

I think it is quite clear that governments are starting to figure out what these Cryptos entail. By their very nature they will weaken what we think of as government. No matter if it is Crytpo based coins, App coins, etc. they are going to remove power (and more notably) corruption, from governments. Governments, institutions, etc. will fight it, but it is a losing battle, as the Trojan Horse has been let in and is propagating like a virus. See, first these technologies will be used because greed, I mean efficiency and profits  Grin, will take over. Once they are in the system fully, it will be apparent how they can "improve" government. Improve or remove? -  Just a few letters different.  Grin

Even if Lawlessky tries to control the Cryptos by regulating them to death, the seed has been planted. His days and those like him are limited as far as their power over others are concerned.
It will come down to some very basic premises, which will be based on facts, mathematics, etc. and not "who you know" or (hopefully) how big your army is.

Many often quote that "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." saying - The fight is not even close to being started.

Enjoy the show, it is just getting started.
Its about sharing (and they will be forced to realize this.)
670  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning on: July 23, 2014, 01:59:43 PM
Why does a platform that can have services built on it need a currency? Can someone explain this to me?

The first thing that comes to mind is that it is a fundraiser for the devs. (Fair enough to a point.)
The next thing is that if BTC becomes the defacto currency you will be limited by it's confirmation times (slower) and such. You can look at Counterwallet's confirmation times between BTC (slow) and XCP (fast) to see my point.
Sure others will jump in here...
671  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 22, 2014, 09:32:36 PM
I just came to the Speculation forum and found a thread where fonzie supposedly stated something bullish!!! What happened? Did hell freeze over?

link or it didn't happen


And https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=705229.0

Today, is a very special day...
672  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread on: July 22, 2014, 06:09:15 PM


For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? Wink

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.


Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. Grin

I believe you and I are thinking of the same whale.  I don't know of any others who approach that size.

Please elaborate. You think it is an early BTC holder or ?
673  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Alpha Technology Litecoin (Scrypt) ASIC Miner Order Batch 1 Now! on: July 22, 2014, 01:07:43 PM
Below is a great site about one guys experience using Money Claim Online. (https://www.moneyclaim.gov.uk/web/mcol/welcome)

http://www.howtotakesomeonetocourt.info/joomla/

If your claim is under £10,000 it can be heard in absentia. Although you must state this is how you wish to proceed in your claim. Once the claim is made, Alpha will be notified within 2 working days and will have 14 days to respond. If they do not dispute the case, or respond you will be awarded a judgement by default and Alpha will be ordered to pay you in full.

If Alpha choose to dispute the claim they will also be saddled with court costs WHEN they lose. These will be substantial on multiple claims. I would suggest you coordinate your claims so Alpha are bombarded with many claims at once.

Your case, if you are a consumer should be based on the UK Distance Selling Regulations but you should also build a case for breach of contract if Alpha do not deliver by the 31st July (10 weeks after final payment was asked for) and because they have not notified their customers of the exact shipping date, as stated in their contract. Also you could also make a case for them not supplying "frequent" updates with videos/images, as this was also in their contract.

If you are a business you are not covered by the DSR so your case will have to be built around breach of contract.

I would suggest all claimants communicate and coordinate via PM as Fiaz monitors this site.

Or you could just sidestep the courts and unleash the debt collectors on to them. Cost: 15% of recovered funds. No win no fee.

http://www.debt-collection-service.co.uk/#

I don't know how effective these guys are but they might be worth a try.

Thanks again Retro72. Great information. I agree with you regarding the importance of that July 31st date.
I'll be watching it closely. Keep the great info coming.

I HIGHLY doubt AT will dispute the claim (maybe to delay things, but not to fight) as CLEARLY we are not businesses. That distance selling regulation seems key for many of us.

Its about sharing
674  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: July 22, 2014, 01:02:19 PM
Risto, I propose that you make a rule to forbid discussions about closed-source alts in this thread. These are really not worth our time.

And what happens when something special comes along? Are we not allowed to talk about it?
Are we going to have a list of rules here?

The problem is to define "special". I personally make it a rule that something closed-source is not special enough for me to spend time going through it. Even if it's "temporary" closed-source.
The fact that developers worry of other coins copying their code right away is in fact revealing a lot of their personal motives, if you ask me.

We are not going to have a list of rules, there is already one Smiley


The rules of this thread are very strict, as always in my threads:

- There is no freedom of speech. The topic is altcoins, but I also want that it stays in a level that is possible and interesting to read for a busy Bitcoin holder that does not care about alts. I know how it feels to be a busy Bitcoin holder, so I steer the discussion to the maximum benefit for me, and for my readers.

- Which alts can be discussed, is up to me. Mentioning an alt after that specific alt has been banned from a thread results in a ban for you. If you do not obey my ban from the thread, historically you have had 100% chance to be banned from the forum as a result. Don't try your luck.

- Posts may be deleted for whatever reason. Deletion does not necessarily mean that the post was offensive. It may also have been too long quote (in which case either the original, or the reply may be pruned), repetition of yours or somebody else's point, or anything else.

- Moderating actions are written in red. Others are not allowed to use red.



(For sake of clarity - I currently don't have any XC, did have a few in the past, but rolled them into XMR.)

I'm not into closed source, but in the case of XC, not all of it is closed right? So, we can't even talk about the potentially beneficial aspects of it then, according to your new rule.

Perhaps, in certain situations (e.g. Spammers coming on here) Risto can do what he will, but exclusionary rules sound a bit dangerous to me, especially when what you are excluding is not clear (e.g. partial closed source.)

Now, on the other hand, I do see a bit of your point, in that why should we let others come here and promote their coin if they don't let us look at the code? Share is as share does.
Fair enough. Just sharing my worry...

IAS
675  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: July 22, 2014, 12:39:43 PM
[...]

Hi, here is the REV 1 trusted mixer implementation source code. The coin now has multi-path trustless mixing (still not open source though) and every wallet is a potential node.

Risto, I propose that you make a rule to forbid discussions about closed-source alts in this thread. These are really not worth our time.


And what happens when something special comes along? Are we not allowed to talk about it?
Are we going to have a list of rules here? Let's keep things as open as we can, yeah, ironic I know.
The fewer the rules the better.
676  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread on: July 22, 2014, 09:34:07 AM
Hi,

is there a post somewhere which explains the (economic) differences between XMR and DRK in a not too technical way?
Of all the Anon-Coins, I am only invested in DRK so far but you guys seem pretty sure XMR is better (you don`t even mention DRK) and I`d like to know why.
Unfortunately it is pretty hard to find such informations, as any Altcoin-community seems to act like some kind of sect, flaming at anyone who even mentions another coin. Diversification seems to be less popular than going all in into the coin one fell in love with...but this thread sounds reasonable so far, so I ask here instead of the DRK thread  Cheesy
I hope the question is not OT though.

(Edit: rpietila is the famous "Risto" I heard mentioned so many times?)

If you search this thread there were some great points brought up by Aminorex and others on why Monero's Cryptonote is superior (in many ways) to Darks mixing.
At a superficial, yet very important layer, the name Monero sounds nice, Dark is Dark. Not saying that is bad. But just look at what happened to Dark Market - immediately
the source was taken and Open Bazaar was formed. There is a lot to a name (fortunately or unfortunately).

I'm not as technical when it comes to the security, but even looking at things like Volume say alot. Monero (not listed here) would be the number 3 coin! http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/info

Today:
Darks total volume Using - http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/#jump-drk-btc = 167 BTC
Monero's total volume Using - http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/#jump-xmr-btc =357 BTC

Now, volume isn't the tell all, but this has been the pattern of late. I think many who hold DRK really must wonder how they will spend them in the future (outside of person to person).
Not saying it doesn't succeed as there is plenty of space, but it looks like it is starting to fall out of favor. Monero has been REALLY gaining traction.

IAS
677  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: World Bank Report: Bitcoin is a ‘Naturally Occurring’ Ponzi on: July 21, 2014, 10:33:16 PM
I wonder what he says about State run lottery systems?
678  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: July 21, 2014, 01:13:16 PM
Aminorex - LOL, I guess that is possible. Share your Satoshi Dice like idea!

Dreamspark - I considered what you said and perhaps they first tried to buy small amounts of coins and it moved things too much. Who knows.
But for sure there is bigger money entering XMR. I guess Rpietila is telling his friends with castles.  Grin
Looking at the daily volume, it is just insane on Poloniex (238 BTC so far). (Dark is dead there - 4BTC). And on Mintpal, DRK no longer has the huge advantage of the past. (22BTC vs 98 BTC).
It looks like Monero is starting to have a lot more volume than Dark.

IAS
679  Economy / Web Wallets / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: July 21, 2014, 09:22:34 AM
I'm curious, does anyone know if this new wallet, which clearly contains the blockchain logo, is from blockchain.info?
It certainly looks like a near killer app for BTC imo but I don't see it mentioned on their site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfsYd5IjSaQ

680  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: July 21, 2014, 07:44:04 AM
Wanted to mentioned this yesterday (before the current potential breakout.)
Monero's chart looks a bit like a triangle that is breaking out. It is not exactly textbook but you can easily see the coil like pattern here.
Not sure why someone put in such a huge buy order (88BTC) but perhaps they were "trying" to start the breakout? (Was a huge spike up in price, almost to the last high on this triangle - .00575)

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