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81  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Foundations conflict of interest on: April 09, 2013, 01:35:35 AM
So are you saying:

1) There should not be a Bitcoin Foundation or some other advocacy group for bitcoin.

or

2) There should be a Foundation, but it should be run by people who have absolutely no interest in bitcoin to avoid a conflict of interest.

?
82  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / NPR's Planet Money wants to interview Europeans who just started using BTC on: April 07, 2013, 11:56:55 PM
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bvp7f/nprs_planet_money_looking_for_new_bitcoin_users/

Any takers?
83  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time to buy now? on: April 07, 2013, 08:53:30 PM
Assuming you believe in some sort of fundamental value of bitcoin that's higher than it is now and aren't just trying to get rich quick...

Dollar Cost Averaging.

If you're interested in Bitcoin start putting in (say) 500 dollars a week.  If the price goes up you'll have some old coins that were cheap.  If it goes down, you can buy new coins cheap.

If the bubble pops in a month you'll still have $8,000.  If the price keeps doubling every week, you'll have $7500 worth of bitcoins bought for a total of $2,000.

It is still loosing money if bitcoin would gain value meantime higher than you expect. Since no one can know for sure what will happend, only thing we can do is to measure how much we can potentially gain or loose.

No it is not losing money if you don't buy before the price goes up.  It simply isn't gaining as much.  On the flip side the potential loss is also lower if the so-called bubble pops.  It's a risk mitigation strategy that allows you to follow the general trend of the market instead of trying to profit as a day trader.

Alternately you can do hours of weeks of research and technical analysis, listen to a bunch of people who think bitcoin is going to correct to 50 or shoot up to 1000, pick the exact perfect time you want to buy or sell, execute the trade, and still get it totally wrong and lose a bunch of money.
84  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time to buy now? on: April 07, 2013, 07:54:56 PM
Assuming you believe in some sort of fundamental value of bitcoin that's higher than it is now and aren't just trying to get rich quick...

Dollar Cost Averaging.

If you're interested in Bitcoin start putting in (say) 500 dollars a week.  If the price goes up you'll have some old coins that were cheap.  If it goes down, you can buy new coins cheap.

If the bubble pops in a month you'll still have $8,000.  If the price keeps doubling every week, you'll have $7500 worth of bitcoins bought for a total of $2,000.

Or if you like bitcoin but think we're in bubble territory, sell BTC on the way up the same way and hopefully rebuy for cheap later.
85  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time to buy now? on: April 07, 2013, 07:51:59 PM
Assuming you believe in some sort of fundamental value of bitcoin that's higher than it is now and aren't just trying to get rich quick...

Dollar Cost Averaging.

If you're interested in Bitcoin start putting in (say) 500 dollars a week.  If the price goes up you'll have some old coins that were cheap.  If it goes down, you can buy new coins cheap.

If the bubble pops in a month you'll still have $8,000.  If the price keeps doubling every week, you'll have $7500 worth of bitcoins bought for a total of $2,000.
86  Economy / Goods / Re: Before there were Casascius coins, there were bitbills on: April 07, 2013, 05:28:07 PM
pics?

And if I get an offer I like I'll throw in a (used) payee card.



87  Economy / Goods / Re: Selling 2 Watches on: April 07, 2013, 02:08:25 PM
Thanks for taking the time to post a picture, but I can't stand metal bracelets.
88  Economy / Goods / Before there were Casascius coins, there were bitbills on: April 07, 2013, 01:51:38 PM
Since there seems to be a collectors market developing for vintage Casascius coins, I was wondering if anyone was interested in collecting bitbills.  These were the original physical bitcoin.  I've got two 5 BTC bills.  Is there any collector interest?
89  Economy / Goods / Re: Selling 2 Watches on: April 07, 2013, 12:29:18 AM
I know at least some of the Ironies are automatics.  Is this one an automatic?  New or used?  Do you have pics?
90  Economy / Goods / Re: [FOR SALE] Series 1, 1 BTC Casascius Coins on: April 07, 2013, 12:21:32 AM
I suppose if people are taking collecting my coins seriously, I might as well point out that the series 1 coins were made and distributed in prefix order, with 11xxxxxx being the first, 12xxxxxxx being next, etc.  The lower the number, the earlier the coin.
Can you explain this further possibly? Is the prefix related to the public key?


Yes.  The ones pictured would be the 1Axxxxxx range.
91  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Amagi Metals - Largest Selection of Gold & Silver for Bitcoins on: April 06, 2013, 04:20:22 PM

Thanks to the bitcoin community we need to hire an additional 1-2 employees. The bitcoin community has CREATED jobs. How cool is that?


Very awesome!  You should do a post on your blog.
92  Economy / Goods / Re: Selling two casascius coins to SgtSpike on: April 06, 2013, 12:47:33 AM
I'll be selling two casascius coins to SgtSpike.  These are the version ones with the typo on the hologram.  In addition to the typo, they belong to the rare 12xxxxx series, only the second series of coins produced.

Selling price is 9 BTC total, or 4.5 BTC per coin.

I'm going to send the coins to SgtSpike first via USPS with delivery confirmation.  When he receives them, he will either accept them and send me 9 BTC, or return the coins at his own expense.  One of the two options must be exercised within 72 hours.

SgtSpike, if you can just quote and agree I'll ship the coins out.
I don't see anything about insurance mentioned here, but kgo also said in a PM he would send them with insurance as well.  So, quoted and agreed, so long as insurance at today's valuation of 9 BTC is provided with the shipment (at least $1,284).  Kgo, please confirm!  Also, to be clear, these are to be unredeemed coins.  Smiley

Yep.  I agree on the insurance and confirm the coins are unredeemed.
93  Economy / Goods / Selling two casascius coins to SgtSpike on: April 06, 2013, 12:41:01 AM
I'll be selling two casascius coins to SgtSpike.  These are the version ones with the typo on the hologram.  In addition to the typo, they belong to the rare 12xxxxx series, only the second series of coins produced.

Selling price is 9 BTC total, or 4.5 BTC per coin.

I'm going to send the coins to SgtSpike first via USPS with delivery confirmation.  When he receives them, he will either accept them and send me 9 BTC, or return the coins at his own expense.  One of the two options must be exercised within 72 hours.

SgtSpike, if you can just quote and agree I'll ship the coins out.
94  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Here come the accusations of "You were just lucky!" [crosspost to Reddit] on: April 02, 2013, 11:24:00 AM

I lost all of mine on SatoshiDICE.  Sorry Feds.

At least you had some fun.  I lost all my bitcoins in a boating accident... Sad
95  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: March 28, 2013, 04:47:03 PM

This is a misunderstanding of the rules of probability. For systems like this, past results have no bearing on future results. The expected profits for April are not related to what happens in March. (With the caveat here that since this is a business things are a bit different. If we actually get a loss for the month, then that would be carried forward into April, but if it just breaks even then April is unaffected.)

To get a better grasp of this, lets assume that when you have a child you have an equal probability of having a boy or a girl. I already have two girls, what is the probability that my next child will be a boy?

Answer: The probability of having a boy is 50%, the same as it was for the first child.

Of course statistically this is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.  Yes we could stay above expected profit forever since each win/loss is independent.  We could also stay below the expected profit for an infinite amount of time.

As a practical matter expecting a large amount of independent die roles to ultimately be closer to the expected probabilistic outcome rather than further is how all casinos generate money and long term why you can't beat the house.  In the long run profit will return to the expected value based on expected probabilities.

Given that and the relatively low volume, I think it's more likely that we'll draw closer to the expected profit rather than further.
96  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: March 28, 2013, 03:26:25 PM
Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

Because there will be no profits this month, which means no dividends. Price will probably fall below .003

where can we follow current monthly profit/loss?


Dooglus usually does daily updates here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.1080

Even though the month is flat, we're still above the statistically expected profit overall, so we might be in for a few more flat months.
97  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin: The Scamming on: March 28, 2013, 02:34:39 PM
I think you mean 'buy' in step three.  That's the only way you can force the price up.  You can only sell at higher and higher prices if there are already buyers who think the price is fair.  You can't force anyone to buy.

But your plan relies on the Greater Fool Theory.  There's no guarantee that people will panic and buy at the price you want when you dump your bitcoins.
98  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: PirateAt40 / Trendon Shavers on: March 28, 2013, 12:02:30 PM
as a newbie, can u tell me what Pirates scam involved, how it worked?

He had a secret method that was guaranteed to pay out 7% a week on your investment, or 3300% a year if you reinvested dividends.
99  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin-qt v0.6.2-beta safe to use? on: March 25, 2013, 08:59:17 PM
Syncing on the 8.X releases is much more painless than it was in the past.
100  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MTGOX to collapse if Japan goes "the Cyprus way" ? on: March 25, 2013, 05:19:10 PM
The EU forced Cyprus' hand.  Why would Japan force Japan to seize bank funds so that Japan will bailout Japan?
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