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April 16, 2014, 04:12:47 AM *
News: ♦♦ A bug in OpenSSL, used by Bitcoin-Qt/Bitcoin Core, could allow your bitcoins to be stolen. Immediately updating Bitcoin Core to 0.9.1 is required in some cases, especially if you're using 0.9.0. Download. More info.
The same bug also affected the forum. Changing your forum password is recommended.
 
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81  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time to buy now? on: April 07, 2013, 07:51:59 PM
Assuming you believe in some sort of fundamental value of bitcoin that's higher than it is now and aren't just trying to get rich quick...

Dollar Cost Averaging.

If you're interested in Bitcoin start putting in (say) 500 dollars a week.  If the price goes up you'll have some old coins that were cheap.  If it goes down, you can buy new coins cheap.

If the bubble pops in a month you'll still have $8,000.  If the price keeps doubling every week, you'll have $7500 worth of bitcoins bought for a total of $2,000.
82  Economy / Goods / Re: Before there were Casascius coins, there were bitbills on: April 07, 2013, 05:28:07 PM
pics?

And if I get an offer I like I'll throw in a (used) payee card.



83  Economy / Goods / Re: Selling 2 Watches on: April 07, 2013, 02:08:25 PM
Thanks for taking the time to post a picture, but I can't stand metal bracelets.
84  Economy / Goods / Before there were Casascius coins, there were bitbills on: April 07, 2013, 01:51:38 PM
Since there seems to be a collectors market developing for vintage Casascius coins, I was wondering if anyone was interested in collecting bitbills.  These were the original physical bitcoin.  I've got two 5 BTC bills.  Is there any collector interest?
85  Economy / Goods / Re: Selling 2 Watches on: April 07, 2013, 12:29:18 AM
I know at least some of the Ironies are automatics.  Is this one an automatic?  New or used?  Do you have pics?
86  Economy / Goods / Re: [FOR SALE] Series 1, 1 BTC Casascius Coins on: April 07, 2013, 12:21:32 AM
I suppose if people are taking collecting my coins seriously, I might as well point out that the series 1 coins were made and distributed in prefix order, with 11xxxxxx being the first, 12xxxxxxx being next, etc.  The lower the number, the earlier the coin.
Can you explain this further possibly? Is the prefix related to the public key?


Yes.  The ones pictured would be the 1Axxxxxx range.
87  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Amagi Metals - Largest Selection of Gold & Silver for Bitcoins on: April 06, 2013, 04:20:22 PM

Thanks to the bitcoin community we need to hire an additional 1-2 employees. The bitcoin community has CREATED jobs. How cool is that?


Very awesome!  You should do a post on your blog.
88  Economy / Goods / Re: Selling two casascius coins to SgtSpike on: April 06, 2013, 12:47:33 AM
I'll be selling two casascius coins to SgtSpike.  These are the version ones with the typo on the hologram.  In addition to the typo, they belong to the rare 12xxxxx series, only the second series of coins produced.

Selling price is 9 BTC total, or 4.5 BTC per coin.

I'm going to send the coins to SgtSpike first via USPS with delivery confirmation.  When he receives them, he will either accept them and send me 9 BTC, or return the coins at his own expense.  One of the two options must be exercised within 72 hours.

SgtSpike, if you can just quote and agree I'll ship the coins out.
I don't see anything about insurance mentioned here, but kgo also said in a PM he would send them with insurance as well.  So, quoted and agreed, so long as insurance at today's valuation of 9 BTC is provided with the shipment (at least $1,284).  Kgo, please confirm!  Also, to be clear, these are to be unredeemed coins.  Smiley

Yep.  I agree on the insurance and confirm the coins are unredeemed.
89  Economy / Goods / Selling two casascius coins to SgtSpike on: April 06, 2013, 12:41:01 AM
I'll be selling two casascius coins to SgtSpike.  These are the version ones with the typo on the hologram.  In addition to the typo, they belong to the rare 12xxxxx series, only the second series of coins produced.

Selling price is 9 BTC total, or 4.5 BTC per coin.

I'm going to send the coins to SgtSpike first via USPS with delivery confirmation.  When he receives them, he will either accept them and send me 9 BTC, or return the coins at his own expense.  One of the two options must be exercised within 72 hours.

SgtSpike, if you can just quote and agree I'll ship the coins out.
90  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Here come the accusations of "You were just lucky!" [crosspost to Reddit] on: April 02, 2013, 11:24:00 AM

I lost all of mine on SatoshiDICE.  Sorry Feds.

At least you had some fun.  I lost all my bitcoins in a boating accident... Sad
91  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: March 28, 2013, 04:47:03 PM

This is a misunderstanding of the rules of probability. For systems like this, past results have no bearing on future results. The expected profits for April are not related to what happens in March. (With the caveat here that since this is a business things are a bit different. If we actually get a loss for the month, then that would be carried forward into April, but if it just breaks even then April is unaffected.)

To get a better grasp of this, lets assume that when you have a child you have an equal probability of having a boy or a girl. I already have two girls, what is the probability that my next child will be a boy?

Answer: The probability of having a boy is 50%, the same as it was for the first child.

Of course statistically this is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.  Yes we could stay above expected profit forever since each win/loss is independent.  We could also stay below the expected profit for an infinite amount of time.

As a practical matter expecting a large amount of independent die roles to ultimately be closer to the expected probabilistic outcome rather than further is how all casinos generate money and long term why you can't beat the house.  In the long run profit will return to the expected value based on expected probabilities.

Given that and the relatively low volume, I think it's more likely that we'll draw closer to the expected profit rather than further.
92  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: March 28, 2013, 03:26:25 PM
Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

Because there will be no profits this month, which means no dividends. Price will probably fall below .003

where can we follow current monthly profit/loss?


Dooglus usually does daily updates here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.1080

Even though the month is flat, we're still above the statistically expected profit overall, so we might be in for a few more flat months.
93  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin: The Scamming on: March 28, 2013, 02:34:39 PM
I think you mean 'buy' in step three.  That's the only way you can force the price up.  You can only sell at higher and higher prices if there are already buyers who think the price is fair.  You can't force anyone to buy.

But your plan relies on the Greater Fool Theory.  There's no guarantee that people will panic and buy at the price you want when you dump your bitcoins.
94  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: PirateAt40 / Trendon Shavers on: March 28, 2013, 12:02:30 PM
as a newbie, can u tell me what Pirates scam involved, how it worked?

He had a secret method that was guaranteed to pay out 7% a week on your investment, or 3300% a year if you reinvested dividends.
95  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin-qt v0.6.2-beta safe to use? on: March 25, 2013, 08:59:17 PM
Syncing on the 8.X releases is much more painless than it was in the past.
96  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MTGOX to collapse if Japan goes "the Cyprus way" ? on: March 25, 2013, 05:19:10 PM
The EU forced Cyprus' hand.  Why would Japan force Japan to seize bank funds so that Japan will bailout Japan?
97  Economy / Economics / Re: this is a bubble. on: March 25, 2013, 04:59:50 PM
It is starting to look like we could got parabolic.  And according to MagicalTux there are 5000 people waiting for approval so they can start buying, and MtGox only gets through 400 a day.  If these people won't freak out because they weren't able to buy for a week, the price could really go parabolic.

Last bubble started at 1 and went to 32.  This one started at 10.
98  Economy / Economics / Re: What happened in may of 2011 that caused BTC to rise to $8? on: March 08, 2013, 04:33:26 PM
There was a major federal crackdown on several high profile internet gambling sites.
99  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: March 08, 2013, 04:07:32 PM
Quote from: MPOE-PR
...

Despite our forum clashes, I humbly and with goodwill ask:

Would you mind de-listing S.DICE temporarily to encourage shareholders to put pressure on the site operators to stop taking advantage of the block chain during this critical stage of Bitcoin growth? I know this might go against your short term financial interests but really if you stop to think about it, the "startup capital" of the Bitcoin network (gmaxwell's terminology for the currently unused space in each block) is going to unproductive activity which does not grow the Bitcoin economy.



Yes! Lets have all our stock exchanges unilaterally extort shareholders to force them to pursue arbitrary political agendas.  Especially in cases where the shareholders have no voting rights, can't compel the corporation to do anything, and the stock price in no way affects the corporation's daily operations.  What could possibly go wrong?
100  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: March 08, 2013, 03:28:58 PM
Those are damn high odds. Thanks for answering my question and for the always well-written explanations. Sent you a little something. Wish it was more.

Thank you.

I think I'll keep posting the graphs for free at the moment.  It's not much work (for me - the laptop always complains, spinning its fan extra fast for half an hour as it loads up the blockchain) to generate the report.  It takes me maybe 5 or 10 minutes each day.

Did you go to 0.8.0 yet?
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