How Large is BTCST exposure?

[bigasic]

Black Market Drug Site 'Silk Road' Booming: $22 Million In Annual Sales
His findings: the site’s number of sellers, who offer everything from cocaine to ecstasy, has jumped from around 300 in February to more than 550. Its total sales now add up to around $1.9 million a month. And its operators generate more than $6,000 a day in commissions for themselves, compared with around $2,500 in February.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/08/06/black-market-drug-site-silk-road-booming-22-million-in-annual-mostly-illegal-sales/

I think this puts the argument that Pirate's business is somehow related to laundering coins for silk road to rest. Pirate's interest payments completely dwarf Silk Roads operator profit and almost rivals the combined revenue of all silk road sellers combined.

I just thought of something, I haven't seen this brought up before, but Silk Roads owner goes by the name Dread Pirate Roberts... Now, thats something to think about...

[Shadow383]

Black Market Drug Site 'Silk Road' Booming: $22 Million In Annual Sales
His findings: the site’s number of sellers, who offer everything from cocaine to ecstasy, has jumped from around 300 in February to more than 550. Its total sales now add up to around $1.9 million a month. And its operators generate more than $6,000 a day in commissions for themselves, compared with around $2,500 in February.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/08/06/black-market-drug-site-silk-road-booming-22-million-in-annual-mostly-illegal-sales/

I think this puts the argument that Pirate's business is somehow related to laundering coins for silk road to rest. Pirate's interest payments completely dwarf Silk Roads operator profit and almost rivals the combined revenue of all silk road sellers combined.

I just thought of something, I haven't seen this brought up before, but Silk Roads owner goes by the name Dread Pirate Roberts... Now, thats something to think about...

It's been discussed.
$6000 a day wouldn't have been enought to keep BS&T going.

[bigasic]

Black Market Drug Site 'Silk Road' Booming: $22 Million In Annual Sales
His findings: the site’s number of sellers, who offer everything from cocaine to ecstasy, has jumped from around 300 in February to more than 550. Its total sales now add up to around $1.9 million a month. And its operators generate more than $6,000 a day in commissions for themselves, compared with around $2,500 in February.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/08/06/black-market-drug-site-silk-road-booming-22-million-in-annual-mostly-illegal-sales/

I think this puts the argument that Pirate's business is somehow related to laundering coins for silk road to rest. Pirate's interest payments completely dwarf Silk Roads operator profit and almost rivals the combined revenue of all silk road sellers combined.

I just thought of something, I haven't seen this brought up before, but Silk Roads owner goes by the name Dread Pirate Roberts... Now, thats something to think about...

It's been discussed.
$6000 a day wouldn't have been enought to keep BS&T going.

Agreed, but when you consider that SR charges 150.00 bucks to be a vendor, charges 6 percent to have access at your escrow money and another 5 percent to hedge the vendors bitcoin. Along with other data that they couldn't get or see, I would argue that SR is bringing in much more than 6k a day..

But, it does seem very unlikely that the two are connected, for one, SR looks to be a smooth operating machine and I don't think pirate40 would be able to run something like that...

The whole thing just makes me sick..

[Xtal]

Black Market Drug Site 'Silk Road' Booming: $22 Million In Annual Sales
His findings: the site’s number of sellers, who offer everything from cocaine to ecstasy, has jumped from around 300 in February to more than 550. Its total sales now add up to around $1.9 million a month. And its operators generate more than $6,000 a day in commissions for themselves, compared with around $2,500 in February.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/08/06/black-market-drug-site-silk-road-booming-22-million-in-annual-mostly-illegal-sales/

I think this puts the argument that Pirate's business is somehow related to laundering coins for silk road to rest. Pirate's interest payments completely dwarf Silk Roads operator profit and almost rivals the combined revenue of all silk road sellers combined.

I just thought of something, I haven't seen this brought up before, but Silk Roads owner goes by the name Dread Pirate Roberts... Now, thats something to think about...

It's been discussed.
$6000 a day wouldn't have been enought to keep BS&T going.

Agreed, but when you consider that SR charges 150.00 bucks to be a vendor, charges 6 percent to have access at your escrow money and another 5 percent to hedge the vendors bitcoin. Along with other data that they couldn't get or see, I would argue that SR is bringing in much more than 6k a day..

But, it does seem very unlikely that the two are connected, for one, SR looks to be a smooth operating machine and I don't think pirate40 would be able to run something like that...

The whole thing just makes me sick..

i love every part of it. My guess, he pays most if not all back.

[Grinder]

Any calculations on how much have actually been deposited? Using paid interest is meaningless for a ponzi, because there is no backing for the sum that the interest is based on.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Agreed, but when you consider that SR charges 150.00 bucks to be a vendor, charges 6 percent to have access at your escrow money and another 5 percent to hedge the vendors bitcoin. Along with other data that they couldn't get or see, I would argue that SR is bringing in much more than 6k a day..

It is possible the researchers had some error in the their analysis but lets assume the profit is on the ORDER of $6K.  i.e. it might be $12K or it might only be $2K.  But it is very unlikely that it is $60K or $600K a day.

Pirate's interest obligation is $50,000 per day (and more like $75,000 per day at the Bitcoin peak).    Even IF SR generated $50,000 per day in profit the owners certainly wouldn't give it all away as interest to third parties.   Even IF SR generated say $100,000 per day and for some reason had to use Pirate @ 1% per day (and give up half their profit) they could pay down the debt in a mere 10 weeks and thus no longer need Pirate.

Of course you also need to consider that the 1% per day is what Pirate was paying lenders gamblers.  If it was a business obviously he isn't doing all the work and paying out 100% of net profit to the lenders.  Say he decided to split it 1/3 to himself and 2/3 to lenders.  That puts the profit required at more like $75,000 per day and ~$125,000 at the Bitcoin peak.

Starting to see that while the researchers may not be able to say down to the penny exactly how much profit SR operators made the cashflow of Pirate's operation is so much larger that even using the most unrealistic assumptions you can fit that square peg into that round hole.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Any calculations on how much have actually been deposited? Using paid interest is meaningless for a ponzi, because there is no backing for the sum that the interest is based on.

The passthrough which were issued as bonds on GBLSE are a good start.  Since the shares were sold on a third party platform you know that those are outside funds entered the scheme (not just paper profits).

[imsaguy]

Any calculations on how much have actually been deposited? Using paid interest is meaningless for a ponzi, because there is no backing for the sum that the interest is based on.

The passthrough which were issued as bonds on GBLSE are a good start.  Since the shares were sold on a third party platform you know that those are outside funds entered the scheme (not just paper profits).

Even that is misleading because the PPTs didn't pop up until more than halfway through btcst's run, which means that you don't know how much of the glbse bought PPTs are interest from outflows from btcst vs fresh funds.

[DeathAndTaxes]

True but it does provide a lower bound.  IF 100K* BTC of shares were issued we know the minimum amount deposited would have to be 100K BTC.  Even if every share was bought based on interest payments at least 100K would have had to be initially deposited to produce that much interest.

* Note: I have no idea the value of all PPT shares on GBLSE.  The 100K is simply an example.

[Grinder]

The passthrough which were issued as bonds on GBLSE are a good start.  Since the shares were sold on a third party platform you know that those are outside funds entered the scheme (not just paper profits).

Unless he bought a lot of them himself to give the illusion of interest. Then he would also be paying interest to himself.

[Cluster2k]

How is Pirate going at returning the funds of his investors plus interest?  Anyone know if he's paying out as promised?  Two full days have elapsed since he promised to progressively make his clients whole.

[DeathAndTaxes]

How is Pirate going at returning the funds of his investors plus interest?

Well that is the question of the week.  If it is/was a Ponzi scheme the answer is he won't and investors will lose.  If the PPT bonds are any indication the market is anticipating a less than 50% chance of repayment in full.

[CoinCidental]

How is Pirate going at returning the funds of his investors plus interest?

Well that is the question of the week.  If it is/was a Ponzi scheme the answer is he won't and investors will lose.  If the PPT bonds are any indication the market is anticipating a less than 50% chance of repayment in full.

people close to pirate  have bought bitcoinmaxaccounts for  close to 80% face value

matthew is betting out 25,000 btc that pirate is going to pay in full

giga has offered to go 50% in that deal

does that not all sound like people close to pirate know something everyone else doesnt ?

maybe the plan is for everyone to ditch their btcst shares and ppts  cheaply by scaremongering
and pirate can come in and win all the bets on the last day by reduvcing his payouts through
skullduggery,stramger things have happend 

[finkleshnorts]

How is Pirate going at returning the funds of his investors plus interest?

Well that is the question of the week.  If it is/was a Ponzi scheme the answer is he won't and investors will lose.  If the PPT bonds are any indication the market is anticipating a less than 50% chance of repayment in full.

people close to pirate  have bought bitcoinmaxaccounts for  close to 80% face value

matthew is betting out 25,000 btc that pirate is going to pay in full

giga has offered to go 50% in that deal

does that not all sound like people close to pirate know something everyone else doesnt ?

maybe the plan is for everyone to ditch their btcst shares and ppts  cheaply by scaremongering
and pirate can come in and win all the bets on the last day by reduvcing his payouts through
skullduggery,stramger things have happend 

Goat said that pirate has defaulted. Piotr_n alleges that Goat is shorting his own passthrough bonds, though I don't know if this is true. It's all on the TYGRR-P thread.

[Shadow383]

How is Pirate going at returning the funds of his investors plus interest?  Anyone know if he's paying out as promised?  Two full days have elapsed since he promised to progressively make his clients whole.

There's apparently been one payout of ~100BTC, so we're almost 0.02% of the way there!...apparently.

[CoinCidental]

bitcoin max accounts are now being sold for 50% face value

if i was pirate ,id stay quiet for a couple of weeks until everyone thinks its 99% default
and people are happy to get anything back for the accounts

in the meantime he can proxy buy all reduced priced accounts in the panic ,only repay 50% of BTCST liabilities  and probably still win the bets since people "agreed " on a lessor amount

the more panic and fear the better to reduce the colossal payouts down to a more managable amount ..........

[Hunterbunter]

bitcoin max accounts are now being sold for 50% face value

if i was pirate ,id stay quiet for a couple of weeks until everyone thinks its 99% default
and people are happy to get anything back for the accounts

in the meantime he can proxy buy all reduced priced accounts in the panic ,only repay 50% of BTCST liabilities  and probably still win the bets since people "agreed " on a lessor amount

the more panic and fear the better to reduce the colossal payouts down to a more managable amount ..........

+1. I just had this exact same thought a moment ago...

[fcmatt]

how does one know who is close to pirate and who is not?

[CoinCidental]

how does one know who is close to pirate and who is not?

its safe enough to assume  that people who  personally had  dinner in vegas with him
 like BurtW and gigavps  and the others on the top tier  are closer to the top than most of the "normal" everyday joes that invested a few coins

i would include payb.tc as  well  as anyone else  running  one of  the  ppt funds, some worth  1+ mullion usd as being on the top level

if these guys are still buying up accounts as if theyre worth something ,then they probably know something most dont  


matthews bet  thread also ,highly entertaining as it might be  ,doesnt act like a man about to lose 100,000usd worth of BTC..............

[dust]

how does one know who is close to pirate and who is not?

its safe enough to assume  that people who  personally had  dinner in vegas with him
 like BurtW and gigavps  and the others on the top tier  are closer to the top than most of the "normal" everyday joes that invested a few coins

i would include payb.tc as  well because hes running one of  the largest ppt funds

if these guys are still buying up accounts as if theyre worth something ,then they probably know something most dont 

This needs to be watched closely.  I wonder how many accounts have traded hands privately?