Long-Term Difficulty Speculation Thread

[Amph]

I think difficulty will double at least 7 times in the next 5 years. The numbers and rationale for this prediction can be found here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1053412.msg11324501#msg11324501

We won't see the introduction of mining equipment orders of magnitude more powerful than at present, we will see the introduction of many many orders of magnitude greater numbers of low power devices in the 200ghs range, most likely by or in association with a public utility.

this mean also that the price will double 7 times(actually more because of the incoming halving) in 5 years, it seems too optimistic to me

[s1gs3gv]

this mean also that the price will double 7 times

There isn't a direct correlation between difficulty and price.

[bomberb17]

this mean also that the price will double 7 times

There isn't a direct correlation between difficulty and price.

You are wrong.
Except if the mining community as a whole gets access to free elecrticity.

[notlist3d]

this mean also that the price will double 7 times

There isn't a direct correlation between difficulty and price.

You are wrong.
Except if the mining community as a whole gets access to free elecrticity.

I would agree it will be more based on what the "big" companies are able to do.   Sadly they are the majority of miners. 

The good news is some home miners still can compete if cheap enough electricity.     But there are not near enough "free" miners for them to control price.

[Amph]

this mean also that the price will double 7 times

There isn't a direct correlation between difficulty and price.

the difficult did always followed the price(sometimes it increases in advance, sometime it come slightly after the increase, because of the two weeks retarget ecc...), it was always the case, this isn't something new

Except if the mining community as a whole gets access to free elecrticity.

and they also "roiyed" already

[s1gs3gv]

the difficult did always followed the price(sometimes it increases in advance, sometime it come slightly after the increase, because of the two weeks retarget ecc...), it was always the case, this isn't something new

A cursory examination of a 1 year btc difficulty chart and a 1 year btc price chart should convince the most asleep at the wheel wanna be crypto-economist that btc prices do not increase as difficulty increases.

difficulty: https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty
price:https://www.coinbase.com/charts

In the last year difficulty has increased by a factor of almost 5 while price has decreased by a factor of more than 2.

[Amph]

the difficult did always followed the price(sometimes it increases in advance, sometime it come slightly after the increase, because of the two weeks retarget ecc...), it was always the case, this isn't something new

In the last year difficulty has increased by a factor of almost 5 while price has decreased by a factor of more than 2.

this because you have not taken into account that most farms has roi'ed already and they can keep their old miners operative, some of them could also benefit from free electricity, if this is all true you will get something different than the usual 1:1 ratio between the two.

[philipma1957]

I think difficulty will double at least 7 times in the next 5 years. The numbers and rationale for this prediction can be found here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1053412.msg11324501#msg11324501

We won't see the introduction of mining equipment orders of magnitude more powerful than at present, we will see the introduction of many many orders of magnitude greater numbers of low power devices in the 200ghs range, most likely by or in association with a public utility.

wow so 50 bill to 100 bill to 200 bill to 400 bill to 800 bill to 1600 bill to 3200 bill to 6400 bill by  may 2020.

Let me wrap my mind around that number.
So I did a calc with 6400b diff

If that happens I need a 0.07 watt per gh chip
I need 2 cent power
I need 450 price
And look what I earn

[judypug1956]

I think difficulty will double at least 7 times in the next 5 years. The numbers and rationale for this prediction can be found here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1053412.msg11324501#msg11324501

We won't see the introduction of mining equipment orders of magnitude more powerful than at present, we will see the introduction of many many orders of magnitude greater numbers of low power devices in the 200ghs range, most likely by or in association with a public utility.

wow so 50 bill to 100 bill to 200 bill to 400 bill to 800 bill to 1600 bill to 3200 bill to 6400 bill by  may 2020.

Let me wrap my mind around that number.
So I did a calc with 6400b diff

If that happens I need a 0.07 watt per gh chip
I need 2 cent power
I need 450 price
And look what I earn
a

If he is correct coins will be 1500usd or more.  So he is in the buy and hold camp.

[philipma1957]

I punched in 1800 usd a coin

6400 diff

a 10th machine using 700 watts

and 2 cent power  very hard to get 2 cent power.

 I looked at the ideas and guesses made  I suppose what will happen is leaching asics where the user gets zero and the gear mines a fraction for the builder of the router.
A stealth 1 watt  asic chip in every router with that mining power going to the routers builder yeah that would be just a fucking perfect way to slay BTC.

[notlist3d]

A stealth 1 watt  asic chip in every router with that mining power going to the routers builder yeah that would be just a fucking perfect way to slay BTC.

I agree it would be awsome if it does happen.  But do you think it will?

I just don't see companies spending the extra to make the product until bitcoin has reached almost every household, and is very well known.

I think it will be individuals making these "dual" purpose gear.  Like how you mention space heaters, i have not seen it but I still think water heater is going to be posted one day.  I just think its a long road till the bitcoin toaster.

[s1gs3gv]

this because you have not taken into account that most farms has roi'ed already and they can keep their old miners operative, some of them could also benefit from free electricity, if this is all true you will get something different than the usual 1:1 ratio between the two.

The charts speak for themselves. Its not necessary to account for this factor. BTC prices will continue to trend towards the cost of producing them, difficulty will jump by a factor of 150 over the next 5 years, and mining will be done by public utilities with ~ 10 watt or less devices, probably at a loss or subsidized by assessments on the electricity bill. Maintaining the network will be considered the role of government, for the public good.

bitcoin mining lightbulbs anybody ?  ~LOL~

[notlist3d]

this because you have not taken into account that most farms has roi'ed already and they can keep their old miners operative, some of them could also benefit from free electricity, if this is all true you will get something different than the usual 1:1 ratio between the two.

The charts speak for themselves. Its not necessary to account this factor. BTC prices will continue to trend towards the cost of producing them, difficulty will jump by a factor of 150 over the next 5 years, and mining will be done by public utilities with ~ 10 watt or less devices, probably at a loss or subsidized by assessments on the electricity bill. Maintaining the network will be considered the role of government, for the public good.

bitcoin mining lightbulbs anybody ?  ~LOL~

I don't think public utilities will be in the mining game.  I think it will be a game in private companies hands.   I don't see governments mining, maybe regulations but not mining.

I think there will always be some home miners.   But I agree it's getting harder and harder.

[philipma1957]

this because you have not taken into account that most farms has roi'ed already and they can keep their old miners operative, some of them could also benefit from free electricity, if this is all true you will get something different than the usual 1:1 ratio between the two.

The charts speak for themselves. Its not necessary to account this factor. BTC prices will continue to trend towards the cost of producing them, difficulty will jump by a factor of 150 over the next 5 years, and mining will be done by public utilities with ~ 10 watt or less devices, probably at a loss or subsidized by assessments on the electricity bill. Maintaining the network will be considered the role of government, for the public good.

bitcoin mining lightbulbs anybody ?  ~LOL~

I don't think public utilities will be in the mining game.  I think it will be a game in private companies hands.   I don't see governments mining, maybe regulations but not mining.

I think there will always be some home miners.   But I agree it's getting harder and harder.

a home miner will mine in ck's solo pool with a device that would be for heating.   You may never win but you were heating your home with this



or this



rather then this



why not if you would be using  a spot space heater anyway.

[notlist3d]

why not if you would be using  a spot space heater anyway.

Main reason for me is I have a propane house heater.  But this winter I sure cut a lot of the winter heating bill with mining.....

[philipma1957]

why not if you would be using  a spot space heater anyway.

Main reason for me is I have a propane house heater.  But this winter I sure cut a lot of the winter heating bill with mining.....

In my home I need to run a spot heater on really cold days in my guest bedroom. 
Last 2 years we had a lot of cold weather.
So I run miners in that room.
It is 500 to 1000 watts.
So for me Some mining  is going to happen in house.
But I think I will never run 11 sp20's  3 avalon 4.1 and 1 s-5 like I did last winter.

[notlist3d]

why not if you would be using  a spot space heater anyway.

Main reason for me is I have a propane house heater.  But this winter I sure cut a lot of the winter heating bill with mining.....

In my home I need to run a spot heater on really cold days in my guest bedroom. 
Last 2 years we had a lot of cold weather.
So I run miners in that room.
It is 500 to 1000 watts.
So for me Some mining  is going to happen in house.
But I think I will never run 11 sp20's  3 avalon 4.1 and 1 s-5 like I did last winter.

I'm still hanging on to mining as long as I can.  I'm honestly scared of next halving.  But until then I will keep mining.

Propane is amazing if power ever goes down.   It was already installed when I started to live in family farm house, so was not much of a option.   But it is going to suck when I need to pay a company to come out and refill my tank.  It is cheaper in summer normally... still not cheap to do though.