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中国不可贸然实施量化宽松
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Topic: 中国不可贸然实施量化宽松 (Read 332 times)
healtheworld
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中国不可贸然实施量化宽松
May 02, 2015, 02:03:39 AM
#1
为应对不景气的宏观经济和不断扩大的公共债务压力,盛传央行准备开展新一轮量化宽松政策,准备从商业银行手中购买大量证券,以增加基础货币投放,降低融资成本,达到刺激经济增长的目的。这显然是参考了美国量化宽松的成功经验,但必须注意中美之间金融体系的不同,美国量化宽松政策成功的一个重要因素美元是国际化货币,是世界的主要外汇储备货币;而人民币还没有实现国际化。贸然学习美国,实施量化宽松,可能会给中国经济带来恶果。
为了应对2008—2009年的国际金融危机,美联储开展了3轮量化宽松,购入金融机构的大量有价证券(包括企业债券和国债),压低了市场利息,提高了证券市场价格,缓解了美国的企业和政府债务危机,促进了美国经济复苏。这样的经验已经被欧洲央行和日本央行学习和推广。
但是,首先必须知道,美国为什么会成功?量化宽松没有给美国带来预期的恶性通货膨胀,其重要背景是美元为国际化货币;世界上超过65%的外汇储备是美元。美国通过量化宽松政策,使得美国的短期利息保持在接近零的水准;其向市场提供的大量美元,大部分流入了利息率较高的发展中国家和新兴工业化国家,比如中国。通过利差和投机等手段,获得了大量的资本回报,弥补了金融危机中的损失。在2008年底,中国的外汇储备仅为1.9万亿美元,到2014年底已经增加到3.8万亿美元,6年增加了一倍,美国量化宽松功不可没。从某种意义上来说,美国正是通过量化宽松向世界成功转移了2008—2009年金融危机;世界各国,尤其是中国等新兴工业化国家为美国的量化宽松买了单。
中央政府现在必须未雨绸缪,准备应对即将到来的债务危机。美国成功的量化宽松正好为中国提供了一个看似有效的工具,中国政府可以通过量化宽松的手段,购买商业银行的资产,把商业银行的债务问题货币化,避免20世纪90年代初银行出现大量坏账的情况。
但不同于美国的是,人民币还没有国际化。量化宽松后,大量的新增货币无法向他国转移,很容易造成滞胀。如果出现通胀,人民币相对贬值,资本外逃必然会加剧,这会导致外汇储备下降;这样,量化宽松后发行的货币又回到了央行手中。外汇占款变负,又可能会促使央行加大量化宽松力度。如此循环,可能不仅不能解决债务危机,还可能会加速危机。
在美联储逐步退出量化宽松,美元不断变强的国际经济背景下,中国的量化宽松很可能让中国的资本外逃从涓涓细流变为汹涌波涛。外汇储备的减少,反过来会影响中国政府现在实施的“一带一路”战略等国家长远规划。量化宽松在日本也引起通胀上升,日元贬值,并没有美国那样的成功,也正是因为日元在国际外汇储备体系中的比例很低,仅为4%,其量化宽松造成的货币供给无法顺利向别国转移。
在中国这样一个货币还没有实现国际化的国家,一定要慎用货币政策手段解决债务问题。但是,面对严重的地方债务危机如何破解?我认为,首先,中央立即禁止地方政府通过平台公司向银行举债,从而控制债务存量;其次,央行直接从商业银行手中购入地方政府债务,让地方政府用财政收入担保,通过长期内(比如50年)分期付款来支付欠款;最后,适当调整商业银行的存款准备金,来抵消央行的货币投放。这样可以把地方平台的短期债务长期化,解决债务的流动性问题,解决可能的地方债务危机。
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