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Author Topic: Cunicula's rebuttal to Bitcoin is Broken Idiocy  (Read 4953 times)
blablahblah
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November 09, 2013, 01:35:25 AM
 #21


I promise to do some bedtime reading of that, now that I've given Scribd my email and personal biometrics in exchange for the pdf.

To me it sounds like people are getting so tied up in details like: how hardware re-usability affects incentives, that it's easy to lose sight of context. Meanwhile, others are shocked that there exists an ecosystem of altcoins at all, and they're clearly fearful that this stealth inflation will dilute their profits https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279650.0. Plz bear with me while I try to summarise some coin evolution:

Communist coins (least evolved)
Anyone can make infinite coins for free. No scarcity, no relative scarcity. Basically no-one is 'fooled' into valuing them.

Proof of Work coins
Anyone can make coins, expensively. The production rate is continuously measured and then tightly regulated so that it follows some horrible arbitrary-looking scheme. The game seems to introduce scarcity, and because the coins are unevenly scarce, lots of people value them. However, altcoins and liquid exchanges can dilute this scarcity, though I admit it seems like a formidable task predicting just how network effects and a first mover advantage might play out in a future. At least "communist coins 2.0" doesn't seem likely, since there seem to be distinct elements of meritocracy at play (more about that in a moment).

Proof of Stake coins
I'm rusty on the details, but IIRC they fix a bunch of perverse incentives, by promoting a monopoly coin rather than an unhealthy ecosystem of coin-hopping speculators. And the production cost is low, which gives a PoS based economy a competitive edge ahead of PoW money. The lesson seems to be that the scarcity doesn't have to be 'real' with costly PR in the form of a PoW mining game. As long as the coins are relatively scarce, having trusted stakeholders seems fine. (And they could probably fine-tune the system by controlling velocity by managing transaction fees).

However, if I'm correct that PoS coin would trend towards a monopoly, then lending becomes a problem. Fractional reserve in the form of a pyramidal banking hierarchy is highly inefficient: every time an end-user wants to borrow money, the banking hierarchy creates friction by adding their own (usually enormous) costs at each level. Compare that to something like this:

A business wants money for some venture. In order to overcome the lending problem (what units do they borrow to fund their business??) they issue high-tech shares that are somehow added to a popular currency that represents a basket of various participants' shares. But how to do it? Perhaps something like:
the business registers itself as a participant on a blockchain somewhere.
the business releases 'old' coins, while everyone else's pre-existing coins are automatically devalued slightly with the new shares. The transparency prevents stealthy, dishonest inflation*. And there is no longer any need for lending. *The idea is of course incomplete. There would probably need to be additional incentives to prevent excessive inflation, perhaps some system of dividends. This is where we should be focussing our efforts. Proof of stake is still nibbling around the edges.
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November 09, 2013, 02:04:21 AM
 #22

Can you elaborate on why you think Bitcoin is broken?


Right now the block reward is really massive so there is no strong incentive to jack up fees (even if you could).
There should be some point where the block reward gets so low that conspiring to raise fees looks attractive.



and the fees MUST remain competitive to alternative payment networks.  If it's not cheaper than eg. Paypal then Bitcoin is useless, less adoption, even more problems for Bitcoin valuation.  Seems like all the problems will hit at once.

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November 09, 2013, 09:17:39 AM
Last edit: November 09, 2013, 01:45:37 PM by cunicula
 #23

Can you elaborate on why you think Bitcoin is broken?


Right now the block reward is really massive so there is no strong incentive to jack up fees (even if you could).
There should be some point where the block reward gets so low that conspiring to raise fees looks attractive.



and the fees MUST remain competitive to alternative payment networks.  If it's not cheaper than eg. Paypal then Bitcoin is useless, less adoption, even more problems for Bitcoin valuation.  Seems like all the problems will hit at once.
Yes, it's not so useful for society in the long-run, but it could still survive. Consider this scenario
1) bitcoin offers low fees for a long time
2) the user base grows tremdenously due to these low fees
3) competing systems like paypal are driven out of business
4) coinbase finances a 51% attack raising fees for on the chain txns to monopoly levels
5) coinbase raises user fees for off the chain txns, but they remain competitive with paypal like operations

Coinbase could be very profitable. Since coinbase is doing price discrimimation, this is actually a more efficient strategy for extracting monopoly rents than the system used by paypal. What you would end up with is a beefed up monopoly. It doesn't necessarily mean the death of bitcoin.
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November 09, 2013, 10:22:58 PM
 #24

Can you elaborate on why you think Bitcoin is broken?


Right now the block reward is really massive so there is no strong incentive to jack up fees (even if you could).
There should be some point where the block reward gets so low that conspiring to raise fees looks attractive.



and the fees MUST remain competitive to alternative payment networks.  If it's not cheaper than eg. Paypal then Bitcoin is useless, less adoption, even more problems for Bitcoin valuation.  Seems like all the problems will hit at once.
Yes, it's not so useful for society in the long-run, but it could still survive. Consider this scenario
1) bitcoin offers low fees for a long time
2) the user base grows tremdenously due to these low fees
3) competing systems like paypal are driven out of business
4) coinbase finances a 51% attack raising fees for on the chain txns to monopoly levels
5) coinbase raises user fees for off the chain txns, but they remain competitive with paypal like operations

Coinbase could be very profitable. Since coinbase is doing price discrimimation, this is actually a more efficient strategy for extracting monopoly rents than the system used by paypal. What you would end up with is a beefed up monopoly. It doesn't necessarily mean the death of bitcoin.

while I think some of these sub-scenarios are possible, I dont think Bitcoin will run Paypal out of business due to the legal/regulatory dimension.

I think that not enough people are talking about what the effects of a rise in TX FEES will be.  It's not just a simple function, once it exceeds a certain limit(the cost of using more traditional payment networks) then there will be catastrophic results.

something like this:

1) TX fees make Bitcoin more expensive than Paypal
2) People stop using Bitcoin
3) Demand for BTC greatly decreases
4) Price of BTC greatly decreases
5) Miners no longer participate
6) Less processing power, more expensive transactions GOTO step 2

just a rough scenario...

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November 10, 2013, 06:31:35 AM
 #25

Freicoin addresses the slow dwindling of BTC block rewards and dependence on transaction fees by use of a Demurrage system that supports perpetual block rewards while maintaining a fixed monetary base.  Demurrage means all currency holders pay for the network security rather then just transactors.  If not for the crazy gold-bug nature of the anarcho-libertarian world view this solution would have been blindingly obvious at the design phase of BTC.  We think people will eventually come around to realizing Demurrage is the only sustainable basis for a PoW currency and it also has positive price stabilizing and interest rate reducing effects too.

 
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November 10, 2013, 07:02:52 AM
Last edit: November 10, 2013, 02:55:00 PM by cunicula
 #26

Freicoin addresses the slow dwindling of BTC block rewards and dependence on transaction fees by use of a Demurrage system that supports perpetual block rewards while maintaining a fixed monetary base.  Demurrage means all currency holders pay for the network security rather then just transactors.  If not for the crazy gold-bug nature of the anarcho-libertarian world view this solution would have been blindingly obvious at the design phase of BTC.  We think people will eventually come around to realizing Demurrage is the only sustainable basis for a PoW currency and it also has positive price stabilizing and interest rate reducing effects too.

Yeah, I agree that perpetual demurrage has you covered, so would perpetual money supply growth. We talked about this before remember? You asked me what money supply growth rate I would pick for a cryptocurrency and I said a fixed single digit percentage that is invariant over time. That's equivalent to fixed rate demurrage for most purposes.
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