Brian Bonner: Russia's war against Ukraine will end when Putin decides it will endUkrainian President Petro Poroshenko was talking confidently on Jan. 22 even as, from all available evidence, the nation's armed forces suffered a string of humiliating defeats, from abandoning the admittedly destroyed Donetsk Airport to coming under heavy fire in Debaltseve, once strategic as a railway center.
So what gives?
Is Poroshenko delusional, putting on a brave face out of necessity to keep the nation's morale up, or does he know something about the strength of Ukraine's military capabilities and the weakness of the enemy that the rest of us don't know?
After meeting with security officials, Poroshenko said that the Ukrainian army had been successfully rebuffing attacks on Jan. 22 along the entire front line that day.
"True tank battles have taken place. The Ukrainian armed forces have won these battles," Poroshenko's statement said. "The enemy has paid a high price for his adventurous attempts to attack our armed forces We are holding the line at the forefront despite the fact that the intensity of attacks was 10 times higher than before the intensive phase of hostilities. We have coordinated actions, accumulated reserves and if the enemy is not willing to comply with the ceasefire regime and put an end to the suffering of civilians, we will fight back."
Let's repeat: "We will fight back."
I am waiting to see how, since Ukraine lost some of its best fighters -- the so-called superhuman "cyborgs" who held the Donetsk Airport, once a gleaming modern structure that I flew in and out of several times.
I really hope Ukraine wins for many reasons, not least of which is the immorality of the other side. I watched how the other side reacts to battlefield victories. The Russian side is totally without respect to Ukraine's living and dead, and to Ukraine as a nation. I saw the Kremlin propagandists post disrespectful and graphic photos of Ukraine's dead. I watched how separatists commanders laughed about the Ukrainian soldiers they killed. And I saw one of them throw the Ukrainian flag under the wheels of a military truck so that it could run over the patriotic symbol of every nation.
These incidents tell me that Ukraine is up against evil and heartless people. These people don't want a better life for the Donbas residents, which used to be 15 percent of Ukraine. They are just in it for the fight and don't care who gets killed.
Their behavior is why I would easily believe that the separatists, either deliberately or accidentally, struck the trolley bus in Donetsk that killed eight people at least on Jan. 22. As I understand it, the separatists were totally in control of that part of the city and the Ukrainian army was not doing battle anywhere close.
Good people and good nations don't fight wars gleefully. They don't take joy in the enemy dead. They don't humiliate and parade opposition prisoners of war in public, in front of cameras and allow them to be assaulted by a mob. All of this happened in Donetsk.
Good people and good nations go to war reluctantly, because they have to, because they have to use state violence to destroy evil forces in the war or uphold principles or defend themselves against aggression.
Rather than being a graceful winner, Alexander Zakharchenko, the Kremlin's leader in the separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk, went on the offensive. Zakharchenko said his troops will take the entire Donetsk Oblast, including, presumably, the strategic Azov Sea port city of Mariupol. He also refused to negotiate with anybody but Poroshenko.
The disrespect for life is staggering. I don't know the ratio of casualties between civilians and soldier in other wars, but in this one almost four times as many civilians (4,838) have been killed as Ukrainian soldiers (1,373). This is insanity. If estimates of enemy killed are correct, Russia and their proxies are paying an even higher price, with 6,242 killed.
All of this underscores that the 11-month-old war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine, which started with the Feb. 27 invasion of Crimea, is not going to end anytime soon. The cycle of hatred and killing is only increasing.
The fighting will be over when Russian President Vladimir Putin says it will be over.
This is not meant to be despairing news for Ukraine and its supporters around the world.
The West still can help Putin decide to stop the fighting by increasing the economic and political sanctions against him. Sanctions must be more severe and stay in place until Russia not only stops the war in the Donbas but also relinquishes the Crimean peninsula.
While applying pressure, the West can simultaneously give Ukraine what it needs financially and militarily to defend itself from its hostile neighbor.
It's not too late.
U.S. Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican whose party is now in control of Congress, renewed his call for U.S. President Barack Obama to give Ukraine what it needs militarily. I agree with this position because I don't think Putin will end the war until the costs for him are too high, in lives, money and international isolation.
So I reprint McCain's statement in its entirety here:
“Since the crisis in Ukraine began nearly a year ago, President Obama has stubbornly refused to provide lethal military assistance that would help Ukraine defend its sovereign territory and determine its own political future free of Russian coercion. By doing so, the president has isolated himself from the growing consensus – including some of the leading voices in his own political party – that this beleaguered democracy needs and deserves increased American support.
“Just yesterday, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday urged the United States to ‘do more to help Ukraine defend its borders’ with ‘new equipment [and] new training for the Ukrainians.’ ‘I think the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian civilians who’ve been fighting against the separatists have proven that they’re worthy of some greater support,’ Secretary Clinton said.
“And in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, stated that ‘NATO and especially the U.S. should make some defensive weaponry available to Ukraine.’ ‘Not to provide them simply increases Russia's temptation to escalate the intervention,’ Brzezinski said.
“In his State of the Union address, President Obama declared that the ‘shadow of crisis has passed’ while trumpeting the success of his diplomatic efforts against Russia.
“But the shadow of crisis still looms over Ukraine. Sanctions and low oil prices have battered Russia’s economy, but have done nothing to curb Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. Nearly 5,000 people have been killed in the conflict, and nearly one million more forced to flee their homes. Russian-backed separatists are on the offensive in eastern Ukraine, their mortar and rocket attacks inflicting horrific civilian casualties. Just yesterday, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said as many as 9,000 Russian troops are inside his country as the flow of Russian tanks, heavy artillery, and armored vehicles continues. NATO’s top military commander, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove said recently, ‘We are beginning to see the (heat) signatures of air defense systems and electronic warfare systems that have accompanied past Russian troop movements into Ukraine.’
“After enduring tragedy and defeat, Ukrainians have not backed down. Brave warriors known as ‘cyborgs’ have fought with legendary determination to hold the Donetsk airport, a bombed-out ruin of no operational value that has become a symbol of Ukraine’s defiant spirit.
“It is time for the president to demonstrate America’s own spirit of resolve by providing Ukraine the lethal military assistance it needs to defend itself. Failing to do so would be an unmistakable sign of weakness not only to Putin, but to potential aggressors around the world.”
At this stage, arming Ukraine and starving Putin's war machine seems to be the best way to get the Russian dictator to call off his barbaric 19th-20th century war.
Kyiv Post chief editor Brian Bonner can be reached at
bribonner@gmail.com.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/brian-bonner-russias-war-against-ukraine-will-end-when-putin-decides-it-will-end-378212.html
