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TL;DR: No coins, from any major BTC scam/theft/hack were ever recovered by analyzing 'blockchain & some sleuthing.'
Never said that analyzing the blockchain and getting identities would ever recover anyone's Bitcoin. And why would anyone selling goods or services to TF return the coins that TF gave them to his victims? That means a loss for them and no harm done to TF, which is entirely pointless.
>analyzing the blockchain and getting identities
I'm guessing you're repeating stuff that you heard on the internet, so let's start with TL;DR of what blockchain analysis is all about.
I am talking about two distinctly different things, analyzing the blockchain to find out where the Bitcoin is going, and finding identities of those who may be involved, potentially through their bitcoin addys.
Analyzing blockchain doesn't lead to IRL identities. The malefactor would have to be mindnumbingly careless and stupid, reuse addresses, be unfamiliar with TOR, proxies, mixers, exchanges, casinos, etc., etc. Such Keystone Cops' criminal counterpart would literally have to post his IRL identity, along with a bitcoin address where the stolen coin iz, and then publicly make a payment from said address. Only then will it be possible to link IRL identity and transaction.
e.g.
"I am Joe Schmoe from 27 Anystreet, Anytown. I control 1JArS6jzE3AJ9sZ3aFij1BmTcpFGgN86hA, where the stolen money's at; I'm sending 0.003813 BTC to 136pcbRqE5XeayiisdgAiJZezsiQufLH16 at [has to be some future time; after this is posted]."
Even this doesn't tie Joe Schmoe to the transaction--the real crook, the one actually controlling the address, could be impersonating Joe Schmoe, setting him up. So we'll still need some corroborating evidence.
Of course, the transaction above must be outbound. Having taint from 'criminal' addys in yours is totally meaningless--BTC payments are pushed, any criminal can send a few BTC to your addy.
True, blockchain analysis doesn't lead to IRL identities. But if someone posts an address on this forum, and then steals some bitcoin and sends a transaction that involves both the address the stolen bitcoin were sent to and the address he posted on this forum, then we can assume with reasonable confidence that that person on the forum was the thief. He can be doxxed, people can ask theymos (or governments can subpoena him) for all of the ip addresses ever used by that guy. If at one point he wasn't careful and accidentally used his real ip to access the forum, then people (governements) can go to the ISPs and ask for the information about whoever was using that ip address at whatever time that ip was used to log into the guys account and bingo, you got his IRL identity.
But even your tongue-in-cheek success story 'TF haz ur coinz,' is not linking transactions and identities.
Knowing that Anon going by TradeFortress has your money is hardly more enlightening than knowing [BTC address] has your money. Not unless you know who TF is IRL, which you do not.
If I'm in error, please correct, and sorry in advance for straying so far off topic.
I posted a link to his dox, you must have missed it. Here it is again.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=326914.0I think I said that the "IMPRESSION is that bitcoin is used to engage in illegal, immoral, or otherwise 'dark market activities'." I mean, why use bitcoin unless one is buying porn, gambling, avoiding taxes, laundering money, funding terrorists, dealing drugs, or initiating a scam? That's its "table image" in pokerspeak. I'm not saying that it doesn't have legitimate uses; I AM saying that it attracts people whom engage in those type of activities. The hard question is: How do we, as a community, enforce its tender? On the streets we beat the fool that robs our homies and that acts as a deterrent.....how do we catch the keyboard pecker who hides behind an avatar to rob our people?
That is true, but you forgot about credit card fraud and identity theft. That is also a huge problem with fiat and it costs people millions of dollars a year. But it hasn't and can't be stopped. The only thing people can do is to be careful and not give away their credit card info away so that it gets stolen. Likewise, people with Bitcoin shouldn't give away Bitcoin and get scammed. Their is nothing to stop that, it is going to be a fact of using Bitcoin. What we need to change is the impression. Make Bitcoin seem just like fiat, used as actual money, not magical internet money used for nefarious purposes.
If your credit card number was stolen, contact your bank....they are FDIC insured in the USA, and you'll get your money back.
In the future, hopefully there will be payment processors who also act like the credit card intermediaries (essentially escrows) who can do that or similar.
