It seems to be that the cost of mining will always approach the expected revenues from mining, such that it's hard to do much better than break-even on mining from now on, especially when you factor in electricity costs. So it occurred to me that the only people who can really benefit from mining in the future are those with no electric bill.
Around here, the price of utilities at college is included in the dorm fee. I wonder if, come September, college campuses will see a spike in their electric bills for dormitories.
Ah. No. Really.
Wait until some months pass, and the included bill WILL change. You can not really run a lot of computers on a dorm. How large you think the breakers are
Hint: I can NOT handle my computers in my appartment and just set up a data center. Ordering some mining special gear, and maxing out my appartement with 3.
Who will be out are.... private people. I pay less than 50% of the electricity than private people AND can deduct the xpenditure from my income, plus reclaim VAT. And people in very expencive electricity countries are OUT. Like TOTALLY out ;
That said, I think you miss out on the income capacity. The electricity bill is not that big, and the bitcoin will increase in value significantly - mining will start stagnating. New people enter, and you ALWAYS fall behind when you reinvest. That is ok - the pool must grow, also in people. What counts now is the income per month for me in EUR (europe), because I buy my computers in EUR, pay my rent and people in EUR and pay my electricity in EUR. I dont care (in my mining operation) about how many bitcoin I earn, but how mayn EUR I earn. it is not that I distruct Bitcoin - I do invest and some of my surplus goes into that - but that is my speculative branch. Mining operation is a EUR based company investing into a data center that mines bitcoins.
How bad is it?
Well, someone here from another country (germany) posted his mining rig will cost him 230 euro in electricity. Mine (the SAME!) costs me 70. Another 30 are planned for infrastructure. That is my complete cost (internet, insurance, cabling, routers, ON SITE ADMIN when I grow) is less than half as expensive as his electricity bill. And my uptime will be larger. No power generator (too expensive), but if MY power fails, guess what - the power company wants it restored faster. SLA, plus I plan taking about 250.000 watt 24/7
They want me online more than him. My computers will be up more. Something bad happens (power supply down). I dont have 100% outage for a day until I get a replcament. I wont have spare parts, but a lot of computers
So, yes, we will see two things:
* Return on Investment will LATER (!) go towards what is normal in a business.
* Income will stabilize - less fluctuations - because the growth of the conomy.
* Business of scale will start to matter. I have a house is negative - I have a data center positive.
* Black Mining will get punished. I don't talk by law. But you pay sales tax / VAT on everything you buy AND the electiricty. I get it back. This is a significant disadvantage. How big? Take germany. 20% of the computer price (roughly) is VAT. This means I pay 20% less than you as a non-business, and that includes electricity.
Business as usual. Seriouesly.
THAT SAID: This is not now. NOW it is highly profitable still AND will stay so for some time. I expect capacity to increase a lot, but bitcoin value to also increase significantly. There simply are not enough in circulation. Once we reach critical size, some orgainzations will start using bitcoins. We may replace a good part of the Halal system. We may see the forming of a non-centralized international money transfer network.
I have run some projections, and I think an investment now is a mid risk high prfofitable scenario - IF you do it in some scale. Why highly profitable? Because at the end of the day I will have my investment back in some months. Lets say 6 months. I still have computers worth 50%
That is a SIGNIFICANT (!) return on investment. Even if bitcoins implode then... I am ahead enough to look back and say I made a good choice.
it is jut not "I found the first gold" time anymore.
