Deepbit profits vs other smaller mining pool

[jhansen858]

Just for the hell of it I swapped to btcguild yesterday... I like everything about the site and implementation but I have one issue which caused me to go back to deepbit..

I ran my miner all night and only got 0.01 in the morning.. if I run on deepbit I will have at least 0.03 - 0.05 when i wake up..

So mathmatically speaking, do you make less by joining smaller pools? 

I don't care about opinions, I just want to know the actual raw numbers if any of you brainy math type can break it down that would be appriciated..

I feel like I was making less after switching to the smaller pool. 

[hugolp]

Just for the hell of it I swapped to btcguild yesterday... I like everything about the site and implementation but I have one issue which caused me to go back to deepbit..

I ran my miner all night and only got 0.01 in the morning.. if I run on deepbit I will have at least 0.03 - 0.05 when i wake up..

So mathmatically speaking, do you make less by joining smaller pools? 

I don't care about opinions, I just want to know the actual raw numbers if any of you brainy math type can break it down that would be appriciated..

I feel like I was making less after switching to the smaller pool. 

BTCGuild got a block after only 4 minutes yesterday evening and then spend 3 hours and a half for the next one. It was lucky and then very unlucky and I feel today its been an unlucky day in general. You really can not say by mining only one day.

[jhansen858]

hrm well if you donate 2.5% (better then deepbit 3%) you will still get paid immeadiatly.  Which I was more then happy to do.  My only concern is that it really seemed like I was making 1/3 in the same time frame.  This of course put a huge doubt in my mind.  I understand the concept of variance and what your saying is that had it been my lucky day, I would have gotten 3x more in the same time frame but since i was unlucky my sample time frame i made less?

[iCEBREAKER]

I'm bad at math (and I joined a bitponzi scheme to prove it) but the idea is that the larger the pool, the less variance will occur because it solves more blocks in a given length of time.

BTCguild was unlucky last night, not to mention that it was the middle of some growing pains.

Give it another shot or three and you'll have a more valid comparison.

So mathmatically speaking, do you make less by joining smaller pools?  

A smaller pool will (be likely to) pay out less frequently over a given length of time, but total payouts from both will converge over longer time periods.

Over time, that extra 3% you're paying deepshit will add up.