[2015-12-23] Reuters: Record highs predicted for bitcoin in 2016

[LiteCoinGuy]

Record highs predicted for bitcoin in 2016 as new supply halves

2016 could prove to be the year that the price of bitcoin surges again. Not because of any dark-web drug-dealing or Russian ponzi scheme, but for an altogether less sensational reason - slower growth in the money supply.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-bitcoin-analysis-idUSKBN0U60GM20151223?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews



-Reuters-

[Flademago]

"The reason 2016 looks set to be different is that bitcoin's price is likely to be driven in large part by similar factors to a traditional fiat currency, following the age-old principles of supply and demand.

But when it was invented in 2008 by the mysterious "Satoshi Nakamoto", who has yet to be identified, the bitcoin program was designed so that the reward would be halved roughly every four years, in order to keep a lid on inflation. The next time that is due to happen is July 2016."

So the Reuters believes that halving will drive up the price. I think the effect of halving is small as there are already lots of bitcoins in circulation.

[Denker]

Daniel Masters, co-founder of Jersey-based Global Advisors' multi-million dollar bitcoin hedge fund, started his career as an oil trader at Shell in the mid-1980s and spent 30 years trading commodities before crossing over to bitcoin.

Now he reckons the price of bitcoin could test its 2013 highs of above $1,100 next year and then pick up speed to rise to $4,400 by the end of 2017.

So the Ex-husband of Blythe Masters is, an former oil trader, is now with Bitcoin and pushing it while she is going for private blockchains.
That's funny!

In general a really great article.This will draw some more attention to Bitcoin, because I think not many of the guys out there knew what halving is and which effects it could have.

[odolvlobo]

A couple misconceptions promoted by the article:

But taken in isolation, the halving of the mining reward will increase the price of bitcoin by around 50 percent from where it is now, Masters reckons. ... "If OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)came out tomorrow and said, 'in six months' time we're going to halve oil production', the oil price would instantaneously react. But the bitcoin market is still in its infancy, and I don't think that factor is discounted into the price fully," he said.

Unfortunately, Daniel Masters doesn't seem to understand that Bitcoin is not like oil. It is not consumed.

It (the halving) dampens supply so, all other things being equal, that puts upwards pressure on price," said Jeremy Millar, partner at London-based financial technology specialists Magister Advisors, who expects demand to continue to increase.

"No one can argue with that fundamental economic principle."

I can argue with that. Halving the production of bitcoins does not "put upward pressure on price", it reduces the downward pressure. Now, that is the fundamental principle that no one can argue with.