Bitcoin is not a very seasonal beast. At least not yet. The history is too short to get any reasonable and meaningful conclusions.
And definitely one sample from the previous year won't tell you the story for the next year.
2016 is a very different animal from 2015, mainly because of halving. we are also moving from the descending trend, thus I would expect completely different action than in the beginning of the previous year, as something more probable. Having said that, you can't rule out completely that the price will drop below $200. Although, chances for that to happen are very slim in my opinion.