The Crash of 2016 (Speculation & Discussion Topic)

[americanpegasus]

I wanted a topic to discuss the ongoing crash of 2016.  The other Economic Devastation topics have become too cluttered. 
 
The premise of this topic is that this is not a blip, and the crash happens this year.  Personally, I think this recent movement upward will be short lived and the real catastrophe will happen in March.  But perhaps I will be wrong.  Let's discuss how long it will take us to recover from the impending devestation, *if* we will recover, and what effect this will have on cryptocurrency.

[OROBTC]

...

americanpegasus

I am not crystal clear what you are predicting, two crashes taking the S&P 500 to +/- 1000 followed by new S&P highs at about 2018?

Your 2016 prediction going down to 1100 or so could very well happen.  The world is full of debt (and very low demand, see Baltic Dry Index at record low of 291), and they have declared a "War on Cash" which will likely destroy confidence in Central Banks and .gov.

An investment (speculation really) idea worth considering would be to BUY oil companies and oil service companies AFTER a few bankruptcies.  Eventually, oil will rise back to over $100 / barrel.

*   *   *

I cannot make a good guess about Bitcoin prices until I see how this ridiculous idea of a "War on Cash" goes.  Europe is probably going to stop using the Euro500 note.  Should that happen, and if the USA joins in one way or another, BTC could rocket.*

*Assuming BTC is not NSACoin......

[americanpegasus]

Those are just random lines on a chart. 
 
But it does fee like the "holy shit, the sky is falling" value for the S&P 500 is right around 900 - 1100.  Of course, once we got there, everyone would be short (if it were still legal) and people would be talking about an end to Wall Street, the stock market, and more.  People would be speculating the beginning of a multi-decade Bear Market, ala Japan. 
 
But that's not what would happen. 
 
Note this is the S&P, not Nasdaq.  The old guard will increase slower in the coming tech 3.0 revolution bull market that will take us roaring into the 2020s.  The NASDAQ and speculative tech would recover faster, because the next boom cycle will be fueled by automation, AI, and robotics. 
 
I predict I'll be back in stocks (call options) around mid-2017 through early-2018, right as the world feels like it might fall to pieces.  Until then?  It's the dawn of the age of Cryptocurrency.  This is how I make my first million, for sure. 

[btcbug]

All I can really say is that the chart looks extremely similar to 2000 and 2008 crashes. We seem to be rounding the top of the hill so to speak and that the market peaked about 9 months ago. I'm thinking big drop later this year and finding a bottom sometime in 2017 maybe.

As far as cryptocurrencies, I'm not too sure. Personally I'm just gonna keep holding so I don't care. Part of me thinks it could hurt the price, but I can also see it as a safe haven and BTC maybe absorb a lot of money from a panic in stocks. It could be viewed as one of the only places to make money in an event like that, so it could be pretty wild.



https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1455601195516&chddm=4025345&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=INDEXSP:.INX&ntsp=0&ei=DbbCVoH5K9C1mAGGka-ABA

[OROBTC]

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I would also note that there was a massive "Double Top" in the S&P in 2000 and 2007.  A Double Top is one of the most well known patterns in "Technical Analysis" (making price predictions solely based on various price patterns).

I do not put much (any really) in technical analysis, but many people swear by it (I know a guy who does).  After the huge declines in 2007 - 2009, that double top pattern looked kind-of scary around 2011 and later...  But look what happened!  The S&P 500 went on to rise to new highs FAR ABOVE the +/- 1500 levels.

[mkc]

I wanted a topic to discuss the ongoing crash of 2016.  The other Economic Devastation topics have become too cluttered. 
 
The premise of this topic is that this is not a blip, and the crash happens this year.  Personally, I think this recent movement upward will be short lived and the real catastrophe will happen in March.  But perhaps I will be wrong.  Let's discuss how long it will take us to recover from the impending devestation, *if* we will recover, and what effect this will have on cryptocurrency.

I don't get your chart, in your chart, SP is going up to over 2500 with  lot of details in the graph.
How you generate this chart, speculation or are you traveling back from future,
Thanks

[tabnloz]

I think if the S&P drops to mid to low 1700's, we'll see the mother of all QE's, money from helicopters etc. Remember, we need continual growth to maintain the facade of the system. If it gets to 'catastrophe' stage, like 1000 in the chart, confidence has been lost in the central banks and it isnt coming back. Just look now, at around the 1800 mark, and the amount of calls already for central banks 'to do something'.

My guess is we will make it to April / May 2017 by zombie walking, with a few China related scares thrown in. I think the big one won't come from a big company going down like Deutsche, but a mid sized one that holds many different classes of debt, starting a chain reaction. Maybe from China, maybe energy?

[americanpegasus]

I think if the S&P drops to mid to low 1700's, we'll see the mother of all QE's, money from helicopters etc. Remember, we need continual growth to maintain the facade of the system. If it gets to 'catastrophe' stage, like 1000 in the chart, confidence has been lost in the central banks and it isnt coming back. Just look now, at around the 1800 mark, and the amount of calls already for central banks 'to do something'.

My guess is we will make it to April / May 2017 by zombie walking, with a few China related scares thrown in. I think the big one won't come from a big company going down like Deutsche, but a mid sized one that holds many different classes of debt, starting a chain reaction. Maybe from China, maybe energy?

I could easily see this scenario happening as well.  But also considering that the Fed may be trying to play hardball, thinking they are looking a few steps ahead.  Perhaps they will adamantly refuse to do QE until we reach 1200 and a robust QE program is forced.

I don't get your chart, in your chart, SP is going up to over 2500 with  lot of details in the graph.
How you generate this chart, speculation or are you traveling back from future,
Thanks

Marty, I did not invent the time machine to win at gambling!

[youdamushi]

Hey!

Thanks for your thread and this little discussion.
Your question is about the effect of the crash on the world and on crypto?

It will be excellent for crypto and terrible for the world. Why? Because this crash is not a crash. It's a very well controlled tactic for banks to get their grip on the world even firmer.
What happens after a crash like this one? Market becomes more and more free, governments send more money to the banks to save them. Debts go higher (and who are the ones owning the debts? That's right, banks).
After every crash people get more and more persuaded that the world is only about competition and that we got to be more productive even if it's totally false.

And crypto is out of it, out of the contol of banks. So it's above those things and will be a good investment point for the people who understand where the threat comes from.

[tabnloz]

I think if the S&P drops to mid to low 1700's, we'll see the mother of all QE's, money from helicopters etc. Remember, we need continual growth to maintain the facade of the system. If it gets to 'catastrophe' stage, like 1000 in the chart, confidence has been lost in the central banks and it isnt coming back. Just look now, at around the 1800 mark, and the amount of calls already for central banks 'to do something'.

My guess is we will make it to April / May 2017 by zombie walking, with a few China related scares thrown in. I think the big one won't come from a big company going down like Deutsche, but a mid sized one that holds many different classes of debt, starting a chain reaction. Maybe from China, maybe energy?

I could easily see this scenario happening as well.  But also considering that the Fed may be trying to play hardball, thinking they are looking a few steps ahead.  Perhaps they will adamantly refuse to do QE until we reach 1200 and a robust QE program is forced.

I don't get your chart, in your chart, SP is going up to over 2500 with  lot of details in the graph.
How you generate this chart, speculation or are you traveling back from future,
Thanks

Marty, I did not invent the time machine to win at gambling!

The reason I say 2017 comes from reading opinion about the time default / cash flow pressures on oil co's take to filter through the system, seems to be about 18 months. Debt is the problem.

There is a lot of junk bond debt in the energy sector. Oil companies had initial hedges but after the initial drop in mid 2015, any re-hedging was at a way lower lever and at some point they will time out. If they sold bonds to raise money, they're by now running low on cash. And if they hedged higher, someone else is eating the loss. And there are plenty eating big losses now; the other sides of the hedge (ie whoever the hedge was sold on to) and anyone who was out there searching for yield (high yield / junk bonds). That why I say a mid sized company. The big ones can get around exposure because they are TBTF, can sell assets etc, but the mid level not as much.

So from mid 2015, give / take a month or two respite, looks around early mid 2017.

[Pab]

Yes,your predicton are meeting my.Downturn begin in new Chinse year,gold broke 1200$ level
Last rebound  is becouse of EBC QE increase  and poor data from USA,no rates jncrease
March we will have  moon  and  solar  elipses,that time crash will begin,
What wll   happen,maybe  Deutche Bank will fail
That  time  will be crash on derivative

[Kakmakr]

What do you base your prediction on? It is one thing saying we are going to see a crash and it's part of a financial cycle where markets corrects themselves, but is this guaranteed? We see a downward spiral in the Chinese economy and a low oil price and everyone is screaming, Doomsday! 

The triggers are all there for it to happen, but things can still change with government interference and manipulation like they bailed out the banks in 2008. 

[americanpegasus]

I think this crash hits in March.  Just a gut feeling. 
 
April to May at the latest.

[n0ne]

I think this crash hits in March.  Just a gut feeling. 
 
April to May at the latest.

Even if the crash hits by the month of march it won't last for a long time as you said, because over the past also same scenario took place. I feel bitcoin has been developed in such a way.