Will this halving affect the price in a similar way to the preivous halving?

[Vohladio]

The previous halving happened on Nov 28, 2012.  A month before this, the price was $10.  It then rose 33% to $13 when the halving took place, and continued to rise for five months afterwards when it peaked in the $230 bubble.

https://i.imgur.com/HqcoVVC.png

What factors will affect whether this halving sees a similar trend in price?  We have already seen a greater price spike in the month before the halving and it's only been a week.  Will this trend continue as it has before or will it crash before the halving?  If so, why didn't it crash the last time?  Thoughts?

[Semidetached]

The full effects of the halving will not be felt instantly. It will take some time for the traders to take their profit selling and buying more etc. before the full force of HALF as much mining supply being sold to take effect. So it may happen in a similar way.