What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016?

[notig]

yeah yeah... the new coins that are a subsidy don't account for a great percentage that are in circulation. But it's still meaningful.

[Bit_Happy]

Rally!

[mccorvic]

Rally!

Never a bad guess!

[Stephen Gornick]

Seriously?

Well, the production will decline by half, from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC per block (which, at 144 blocks today means a drop from 3,600 BTC per-day to 1,800 per-day).   So at block 420,000 there will be 15,750,000 BTC minted (more than 3/4ths of all coins that will ever be mined).  The rate of currency inflation will drop from an 8.3% rate on an annual basis to a 4.1% currency inflation rate.  

The speculation occurring today may already include a premium due to the weighing of this event -- even though it is still roughly 3.75 years away.  

[notme]

Seriously?

Well, the production will decline by half, from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC per block (which, at 144 blocks today means a drop from 3,600 BTC per-day to 1,800 per-day).   So at block 420,000 there will be 15,750,000 BTC minted (more than 3/4ths of all coins that will ever be mined).  The rate of currency inflation will drop from an 8.3% rate on an annual basis to a 4.1% currency inflation rate.  

The speculation occurring today may already include a premium due to the weighing of this event -- even though it is still roughly 3.75 years away.  

This.  Intelligent speculators understand the supply side of the fundamentals before they make their first trade.  Sure, there will always be a few who are taken by surprise, but that will be a smaller and smaller portion of the market each time it happens.

[gimme_bottles]

you don't have to ask yourself what will happen to the price at the next block halving. you have to ask yourself where the price will be by then

[FreeMoney]

Every halving is mostly priced in from the beginning as they are literally part of the definition of Bitcoin. The demand for the coin only results in a price because it interacts with a limited supply, there is only a limited supply because of halvings.

[Melbustus]

Every halving is mostly priced in from the beginning as they are literally part of the definition of Bitcoin. The demand for the coin only results in a price because it interacts with a limited supply, there is only a limited supply because of halvings.

Yeah, I think most of us consider the supply to simply be 21,000,000 and that's that. How it gets to 21m is just a short-term implementation detail. :-)

[Odalv]

if there will halving then bitcoin will still here. If bitcoin will exist then it will still raising above $8000 :-)  And about 100M users adopted.

[no name]

I guess over $150 and under $500.

[Littleshop]

if there will halving then bitcoin will still here. If bitcoin will exist then it will still raising above $8000 :-)  And about 100M users adopted.

I will throw out a guess of $700 for the next halving.  Just wild speculation.

[johnyj]

By that time, people will use bitcarat (0.001 btc) to count, daily generation dropped from 2500000 bitcarat to 1250000 bitcarat, still feels quite a lot  

[nobbynobbynoob]

By that time, people will use bitcarat (0.001 btc) to count, daily generation dropped from 2500000 bitcarat to 1250000 bitcarat, still feels quite a lot  

Ah, a new name for bitmill! Online gaming's widely adopted BTM or mBTC already as a standard unit - forward thinking, in my book. But at any road, it will be some time before we hit $1k per BTC. Mainstream adoption of BTC, should it even occur (big if), will surely suggest $100k+ per BTC or $100+ per BTM. Eventually. Or maybe not. You gotta love markets and BTC!